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ZEISS DTI thermal imaging cameras. For more discoveries at night, and during the day.

Covid - effect on bird tourism (1 Viewer)

Trystan said:
And yet in Italy tourism also resumed without the issues Spain had initially, though beginning to accelerate now.

What was different?

For me it boils down to accepting its not going away and deciding what is an acceptable level of control to apply to reduce impact on health services versus economic and psychological damage of too much control.

Unlikely to get any consensus on that nationally, let alone internationally.
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People get sloppy. Cases increase. Tipping point between demographics & soon out of control.

Italy:-

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/

Spain:-

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/spain/

Just a matter of timing.

Stay safe.
 
Paul Chapman said:
21 days after daily admissions peak:-
01.04.20 - 3,564 peak daily admissions
10.04.20 - 19,617 peak numbers in hospital
18.04.20 - 3,247 peak ventilators
21.04.20 - 1,224 peak daily deaths

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

Travel is of course difficult from/through Europe because Europe is out of control and will be for the winter as no economy can 'afford' a full lockdown:-

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Hopefully, a vaccine will come but it is currently difficult to imagine birding tourism without tests to travel and quarantine on return.

Stay safe all.
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3 weeks then, indeed, cheers. We're a week r so behind France the last few weeks (50,000 new case today). Europe is responsible for c half of all worldwide coronavirus cases, although lack of testing/poverty will be hiding the true nature in some parts of the world perhaps (and more testing = more asymptomatic cases being picked up in Europe). All the news stories saying a vaccine unlikely to be widespread and available before the summer, if that.

Playing a holding game by governments until then ... hmmm. I also read that Poland has taken a novel approach of 'locking up its elderly' ie 70+ year olds in lockdown as opposed to the general population, not sure where I read that.


(There has to be a degree of pragmatism. No need to disbelieve any of it of course, or look for conspiracies.)
 
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dantheman said:
3 weeks then, indeed, cheers. We're a week r so behind France the last few weeks (50,000 new case today). Europe is responsible for c half of all worldwide coronavirus cases, although lack of testing/poverty will be hiding the true nature in some parts of the world perhaps (and more testing = more asymptomatic cases being picked up in Europe). All the news stories saying a vaccine unlikely to be widespread and available before the summer, if that.

Playing a holding game by governments until then ... hmmm. I also read that Poland has taken a novel approach of 'locking up its elderly' ie 70+ year olds in lockdown as opposed to the general population, not sure where I read that.
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I'm in same risk group as 70+ on our original lockdown Statutory Instrument because of my BMI. (Working on that ever since but still don't expect to be on the right side of the numbers this year.)

The French numbers are remarkable:-

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/france/

Most global trends are downwards eg Asia & South America and I doubt testing has decreased. I expect North America to increase for the same reasons as Europe. All European countries are climbing the charts....

Any way enough of this for tonight.
 
James Lowther said:
Indeed. For example your entire thesis of labs dealing with a heavy backload by inventing positive tests seems to rest on the fact you uncritically believed your friends when they told you they tested positive then later on tested negative (shocker). But, maybe they were lying to you? Maybe they are Russian agents trying to sow discord in the UK? Trust no-one.

Anyway, pointless to engage with this sort of stuff.
Kids, if you believe this whole thing is a conspiracy then nothing I say will make any difference.

If you’re interested in the scientific perspective then let me reassure you that false positive results are very infrequent. There is ample data in the public domain to demonstrate this.

Cheers

James
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Or maybe they were my employees providing evidence of fit to work, and maybe I've worked in a commercial lab and seen the pressure of day to day workloads.

If you think people taking shortcuts at work is equivalent to elvis being abducted by aliens then so be it.

As stated in my initial post on the matter, the results could have been false negatives and if this is the case, we have the dangerous situation of people coming back to work thinking they don't have the virus and spreading it amongst colleagues.
 
Trystan said:
Or maybe they were my employees providing evidence of fit to work, and maybe I've worked in a commercial lab and seen the pressure of day to day workloads.

If you think people taking shortcuts at work is equivalent to elvis being abducted by aliens then so be it.

As stated in my initial post on the matter, the results could have been false negatives and if this is the case, we have the dangerous situation of people coming back to work thinking they don't have the virus and spreading it amongst colleagues.
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Far more of an issue than false positives imh and unqualified opinion.

The 30% I quoted, was mentioned in a piece I read on the kits they were using in America. The piece said that it was a known an uncontested figure, can't find it now.
 
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For this commercially available test, 97% success rate - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54684985

And of course, there have been high profile false positives:-

https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2...hannel-reprieve-excitement-into-final-success

Clearly, there is a high degree of accuracy but margin for error. The only individual with whom I have come into contact with a positive test - not close contact - remains puzzled as he had no symptoms he identified and no one with whom he was in close contact tested positive. He is over 70 and part of the regular ONS survey.

From memory, James and I had an exchange on the estimates of prevalence within the population of the first wave. I am not sure of the latest stats but it will be interesting to read considered views in due course.

All a bit academic really. Regardless of views do what you can to stay safe and if you get to travel, good luck to you and follow the procedures.

All the best
 
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Major impact on guides

In the last couple of days having communicated with guides in Sri Lanka and Ethiopia, income is almost NIL and in Sri Lanka (no sign of opening), Ethiopia negative test before travel and 7 days isolation or less with another negative test.

We have a trip to Cuba in a couple of weeks, booked in February and it looks like it will happen, they have opened airports apart from Havana in last few weeks - they test on arrival and give results 48 hours later but you can start the trip, danger of course is positive test and 10 days locked down. However Cuba according to guide is now open.

We would be very worried test on arrival normally but as we are on a Vaccine Test programme (Novavax) and are getting regular NHS tests we think it will be fine.
We had a random test at Athens airport last week, (under 20 minute wait for result - not the days we wait in the UK) this random test would usually have spooked Sarah but we were reassured by having a recent negative test result from the NHS just the day before.

PS
The doctor on the Vaccine programme believes that at least 3 of the eight vaccines at Stage 3 will prove successful and be available in small number this year.
 
Paul Chapman said:
For this commercially available test, 97% success rate - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54684985
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For those considering using the Boots 12 minute over the counter test, beware, these are not yet being accepted by airlines as proof of covid-free prior to travel

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-boots-announces-12-minute-covid-tests-12114834

There is also a risk that any test won’t pick up the virus in the immediate aftermath of contact with an infected person - I had a Community Nurse come and give me a test yesterday (phoned through negative today) but I was told by the hospital that I still have to self-isolate for 3 days prior to hospital procedure in 3 days time regardless of the test result.
 
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In the meantime, Africa might see its reserves deforested and wildlife poached out. They have little savings. Ecotourism venues will go bankrupt, wardens will stop working and hunters and tree cutters will move in. Anybody knows how it is on the ground?
 
jurek said:
In the meantime, Africa might see its reserves deforested and wildlife poached out. They have little savings. Ecotourism venues will go bankrupt, wardens will stop working and hunters and tree cutters will move in. Anybody knows how it is on the ground?
Click to expand...

Perhaps, instead of buying another bomb proof 'Limo' for their collection, all those corrupt politicians in Africa who steal the aid, intended for children and villagers, may give it back, that would be a start?
 
We had a good trip to the Yucatan area about a month ago. If you fly in, at least, from the USA, Mexico is wide open. No restrictions at all.

December we are going to Brazil. Again, no restrictions, at least not at the moment.
 
Hi, probably Taiwan is the best place to go, but Vietnam should be your next alternative if you are thinking about coming over to this part of the world. Not too sure if there is any requirement for quarantine upon arrival or not.
 
Lerxst said:
We had a good trip to the Yucatan area about a month ago. If you fly in, at least, from the USA, Mexico is wide open. No restrictions at all.

December we are going to Brazil. Again, no restrictions, at least not at the moment.
Click to expand...

Good to hear that you had a good trip. Carry on birding.
 
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