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How is the COVID virus affecting you?

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Old Sunday 29th March 2020, 11:52   #176
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So do I, my parents didn't leave me one!
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Old Sunday 29th March 2020, 12:42   #177
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So do I, my parents didn't leave me one!
Nice one Andy

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Old Tuesday 31st March 2020, 20:29   #178
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Our case rate has been taking off exponentially (though nobody it seems can outdo the US in that regard since they have lit the afterburners and gone vertical) and seems to have thankfully disconnected from the death rate - even considering time delay factors.
This is the kind of information I'd most like to see, for different countries: cases of infection, vs hospitalizations and deaths. It's difficult to put together oneself, especially given differences in testing and reporting. If anyone sees a good summary please post it here.

Edit: The state of Colorado is as of today reporting 2627 confirmed C-19 cases, with 51 deaths. That sounds like nearly 2% fatality, until you realize that only 15,364 tests have been done, which is just 0.25% of the 5.7 million population. So the actual death rate is likely hundreds of times less than that, perhaps under 0.005%, which I would consider very good news. (And to turn that around, a million people may already have had C-19 so far which is nearly 20% of the population, and it's early days yet.) Back-of-envelope math not epidemiological modeling, but still suggestive (and even a proper model involves uncertain assumptions).

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Originally Posted by Deb Burhinus View Post
It doesn’t take a mathematical wizard to see how quickly NHS services would collapse if we were to have a policy of ‘allowing’ the spread of covic unchecked
I'm unaware of anyone here advocating that, or of any country that has adopted it. [Edit: oops, Chosun and Sweden may come closer than I thought!] Even I am grudgingly willing to try some(!) restrictions, once, for not too long. (Was it seriously proposed in the UK early on?)

But thanks for posting this link to a report I hadn't seen:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-c...-idUSKCN20M124
This is very much worth following up on, whether it turns out to be only testing error (initial false negative) or a real phenomenon. (Of course that was a month ago, years in normal human time... perhaps it's been settled.)

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Originally Posted by Deb Burhinus View Post
now that’s good news
I stand admonished for having the temerity to assume that those with mild cases will recover...

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Old Tuesday 31st March 2020, 23:13   #179
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This is the kind of information I'd most like to see, for different countries: cases of infection, vs hospitalizations and deaths. It's difficult to put together oneself, especially given differences in testing and reporting. If anyone sees a good summary please post it here.
FWIW this chart tracks case rates, but as you said everyone has got different enough reporting, and testing regimes and parameters, that it is not really that reliable, or informative, to sift out outliers from the noise.
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikiped...100th-case.png

This is another table of information, but subject to the same data difference recording issues.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
Currently we have 4711 cases ( officially recorded - likely at least 10x more actual), and 20 deaths (0.4%) here (youngest 68) , and 28 in serious/critical condition (0.6%). Our case rate increase has been reasonably constant (as seen in the first chart) , and so has our death rate (though our hospital system is far from at capacity for this - so no tough resource decisions would have been made).

I have read that Germany records deaths differently which may go someway to explaining it's relatively lower death rates (1.1%) compared to serious/critical numbers (3.7%).

Russia seems to have unusally low numbers - (17/2337=0.7%) deaths and (8/2337=0.3%) serious/critical on a ~150Million population.

And why are Italy's and Spain's death rates so high ?

I also read that Sweden has more or less abandoned attempts to control the spread, but would like to see an official source/thinking on this.

More questions than answers I think.


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I'm unaware of anyone here advocating that, or of any country that has adopted it.. . . .
I've postulated something similar (I'm sure my posts are quotable if others want to step out of the shadows to throw rocks )
Given what we (think we) know, I suggested quarantining/distancing/isolating/protecting/whatever you want to call it, vulnerable/elderly people (say 55, 60 up or whatever) and let everybody else get on with their normal lives - which wouldn't preclude spatial distancing, ppe, extra hygiene measures and protocols - certainly in this country at this time. This may need modification based on season /case load etc depending on region /country too.

This would have protected susceptible people without the ruination of the economy (people and their livelihoods/businesses/wealth/housing security etc for those who think it's some remote thing) and enslaving people with debt for decades as is happening now; at minimal, and manageable risk for the bulk of the population.

Also, on balance, I think likely to lessen the period of time people are unable to hug their loved ones without risk (given that antibody testing would be ramped right up to include the bulk of the population to clear them for contact with those protecting themselves away).

One lot of up to date data I would really like to see is the infection/ critical cases/ death rates, by age group, by country. I notice the media is quick to trot out the story of every young person that has died - but what is the raw truth in numbers?

The thing that saddens me the most (yes even beyond the loss of elderly, beyond the abject theft that is taking place, beyond all the environmental destruction that is being rammed through while this 'distraction' plays out) is the impact and illness/death rates among our health workers. Surely for a world that spends Trillions annually on the Military, we could at least ensure our health workers have every protection and resource necessary.

I would also have no problem whatsoever if we shut the whole non-essential world down and completely quarantine everyone for 2-4 weeks ..... but shut capitalism and debt accrual, billing down too. Also preclude any major decisions about investments/environment being made too. This would shut the virus down in its tracks. But then what ? There's no cure, and the vulnerable/elderly would be at just as much risk again ......

It is inhumane to prey on the ordinary person's collective wealth like is happening now, and in case you think this is not the main game in town, I would invite you to sit down, turn the television off and have a nice isolated/distanced think about it .........





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Old Wednesday 1st April 2020, 00:00   #180
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Arrow The Swedish Approach .....

https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/www....om-others/amp/

https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/thec...hind-it-134926





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Old Wednesday 1st April 2020, 01:16   #181
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Originally Posted by Chosun Juan View Post
One lot of up to date data I would really like to see is the infection/ critical cases/ death rates, by age group, by country. I notice the media is quick to trot out the story of every young person that has died - but what is the raw truth in numbers?
I'm extremely curious to see how this plays out in Sweden, though some restrictions are now coming into place after all. The rate of hospitalization and fatality is everything.

Here's the latest graph by age for Colorado. Bear in mind the paucity of testing.
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Old Wednesday 1st April 2020, 06:05   #182
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This is the kind of information I'd most like to see, for different countries: cases of infection, vs hospitalizations and deaths. It's difficult to put together oneself, especially given differences in testing and reporting. If anyone sees a good summary please post it here.

.
Not possible as the only people being tested, are those who are admitted to hospital. Also home v hospital deaths, only the latter are being tested, even when someone who died at home did so of respiratory issues, none have been tested in the UK at least.
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Old Wednesday 1st April 2020, 06:19   #183
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When all this is over, I wonder if we'll see any breakdown of stats which outline............

1 Death resulting directly from COVID-19
2 Death with COVID-19 as a contributing factor, exacerbation of existing or underlying condition.
3 Death with COVID-19 though it not being causal in any way.

On top of out biggest, daily, death rate so far yesterday (381), we had the sad news of the death of a 13 year old.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52114476
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Old Wednesday 1st April 2020, 12:52   #184
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Not possible as the only people being tested, are those who are admitted to hospital.
That's the situation in the UK, not in some other countries.

And the fact that Britain is only testing 8,000 people a day at present proves conclusively how incompetent the bunch running the country at the moment really is.

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Old Wednesday 1st April 2020, 12:57   #185
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I have read that Germany records deaths differently which may go someway to explaining it's relatively lower death rates (1.1%) compared to serious/critical numbers (3.7%).
Anyone who's got the virus and dies is counted. One reason for the low death rate is that there are many younger people with the virus (average about 48 years, way lower than e.g. in Italy and Spain) who got the infection while on skiing holidays (in Austria ...). Younger people, even those in critical condition, have a far better chance to survive than older people.

Current data on the situation in Germany: https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/...ublicationFile

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Old Wednesday 1st April 2020, 13:14   #186
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Back to how C19 is affecting me!

It's my friend's 60th birthday tomorrow. Her son has sent all of her friends a WhatsApp message asking each of us to record a short birthday message and he is going to send them all to her. I had no idea how to do it, but after WhatsApp instructions from one friend, and a phone call from another to talk me through it, I've now made the video.

So, thanks to C19, I've learned a new skill.
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Old Wednesday 1st April 2020, 13:31   #187
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And as much as the media is loathe to give DJT credit, he's doing a good job overall when he isn't praising himself.
He's done what I expected him (as a businessman) to do, surround himself with the best our system has to offer.
I'm genuinely staggered to read that you think Trump "is doing a good job". Even media outlets usually sympathetic to Trump here in Europe are expressing great dismay at his lackluster response. There are multiple examples of his overly delayed and lethargic response, his poor understanding, and his consequent poor judgment, but the one I found the most abject was his unfounded and malicious suggestion that a shortage of equipment could be explained by theft by hospital staff. There may indeed be some good people around him but the question is whether he listens to them or relies on others. If you think he's doing a 'good job' then I shudder to think what he'd have to do to make you revise your opinion.
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Old Wednesday 1st April 2020, 13:45   #188
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I'm genuinely staggered to read that you think Trump "is doing a good job". Even media outlets usually sympathetic to Trump here in Europe are expressing great dismay at his lackluster response. There are multiple examples of his overly delayed and lethargic response, his poor understanding, and his consequent poor judgment, but the one I found the most abject was his unfounded and malicious suggestion that a shortage of equipment could be explained by theft by hospital staff. There may indeed be some good people around him but the question is whether he listens to them or relies on others. If you think he's doing a 'good job' then I shudder to think what he'd have to do to make you revise your opinion.
I real hope Trump fans aren't going to claim credit for Fauci, who has been in the job for 5 presidents :)
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Old Wednesday 1st April 2020, 13:51   #189
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Make your own hand gel.
Buy methylated spirit/ethanol from DIY store. Glycerol or glycerol based aloe Vera gel from pharmacy. 75% of the alcohol/25% of the glycerol.

It's perfectly effective and you'll save a fortune. I make liters at a time if I need to.

But seriously, mods, can these non-birding threads be moved.

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Is it meant to be much runnier Owen?

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Old Wednesday 1st April 2020, 14:53   #190
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What do we think about this then?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-englan...shire-52121216
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Old Wednesday 1st April 2020, 15:04   #191
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Is it meant to be much runnier Owen?

Rich
Viscosity will depend on the purity of the glycerol (or aloe Vera gel if that's what you have used), but yes.. It's difficult to get glycerol above 85% pure, and the aloe gel may be less. Commercial producers may also add other agents to thicken up the gel for sale. They're saying 60% minimum for alcohol in a hand sanitizer to be effective, so you can drop the alcohol down and up the glycerol if you prefer a thicker gel, but personally I would rather have the alcohol in there.

Assuming that your ingredient alcohol is pure (don't drop below 90% and aim for 99% where possible) then you can play around with the concentration a bit if you're finding it too liquid, but I would personally only go as low as 65% of the alcohol, or even 70 if you also want to clean the odd surface too.

As a consequence of all this, there's now been a proliferation of tutorials on making your own on YouTube, so you should be able to find a mix that suits you (including "fancy" versions with Natural oils to keep your hand in good condition and whiffing nice).

All the best

Owen
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Old Wednesday 1st April 2020, 15:25   #192
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the one I found the most abject was his unfounded and malicious suggestion that a shortage of equipment could be explained by theft by hospital staff.
The problem is that this is untrue. At no point in the speech in question did Trump accuse hospital staff of anything. He questioned the high quantities of masks being delivered and raised the possibility that they were "going out the back door". No mention of doctors, nurses, or anybody else working in hospitals.

It's funny that Cuomo raised the exact same issue earlier in March, although he explicitly claimed it was theft, and faced no such criticism.
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Old Wednesday 1st April 2020, 15:37   #193
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The problem is that this is untrue. At no point in the speech in question did Trump accuse hospital staff of anything. He questioned the high quantities of masks being delivered and raised the possibility that they were "going out the back door". No mention of doctors, nurses, or anybody else working in hospitals.

It's funny that Cuomo raised the exact same issue earlier in March, although he explicitly claimed it was theft, and faced no such criticism.
There's a growing number of news articles regarding theft of, amongst other things, hand sanitiser from UK hopitals.
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Old Wednesday 1st April 2020, 16:18   #194
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The problem is that this is untrue.
The problem, to put it very nicely, is that one can seldom tell exactly what Trump means (or was even aware of) when he opens his mouth, and it requires a considerable amount of guesswork and reinterpretation for those who imagine it worth the time.

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Back to how C19 is affecting me!
Yes... well for me, it's mainly causing two things. First, terror of a police state, as illustrated in the news story Andy posted.

And second, shock and dismay at the ignorance of scientific "experts" not only as to the socioeconomic consequences of their recommendations, but the wild inaccuracy of their predictions. Consider this only two-week-old story in the Times:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...-outbreak.html
referencing this Columbia University study:
https://science.sciencemag.org/conte...e.abb3221.full
This expert "model" completely fails to predict the explosion of infections in New York City, overtaking Washington State. It doesn't attempt to distinguish between infection rates and hospitalization or death rates, or identify the relevant causal factors. Like others, it seems to greatly underestimate the rate of undetected infections, reflecting testing in Wuhan not the USA. And so on. On the basis of flimsy stuff like this, we're shutting down our country? I think I'll move to Sweden, if they'll have me. Jeg snakker lite Svensk!

(Yes, hospitals in a few places here are starting to feel overwhelmed and run out of gear, but the problem isn't a shortage of respirators. It's panic, driving people with mild symptoms to the ER before the dreaded "peak" even comes. Panic based on "models" like this.)

It really leaves me doubting a lot that I've always counted on in my life. All this (with Neil Ferguson as poster boy) is going to give not only epidemiology a huge black eye, but science generally. What will the credibility of climate science, or anything else with political impact, be now?

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Old Wednesday 1st April 2020, 17:11   #195
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The problem, to put it very nicely, is that one can seldom tell exactly what Trump means (or was even aware of) when he opens his mouth, and it requires a considerable amount of guesswork and reinterpretation for those who imagine it worth the time.


Yes... well for me, it's mainly causing two things. First, terror of a police state, as illustrated in the news story Andy posted.

And second, shock and dismay at the ignorance of scientific "experts" not only as to the socioeconomic consequences of their recommendations, but the wild inaccuracy of their predictions. Consider this only two-week-old story in the Times:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...-outbreak.html
referencing this Columbia University study:
https://science.sciencemag.org/conte...e.abb3221.full
This expert "model" completely fails to predict the explosion of infections in New York City, overtaking Washington State. It doesn't attempt to distinguish between infection rates and hospitalization or death rates, or identify the relevant causal factors. Like others, it seems to greatly underestimate the rate of undetected infections, reflecting testing in Wuhan not the USA. And so on. On the basis of flimsy stuff like this, we're shutting down our country? I think I'll move to Sweden, if they'll have me. Jeg snakker lite Svensk!

(Yes, hospitals in a few places here are starting to feel overwhelmed and run out of gear, but the problem isn't a shortage of respirators. It's panic, driving people with mild symptoms to the ER before the dreaded "peak" even comes. Panic based on "models" like this.)

It really leaves me doubting a lot that I've always counted on in my life. All this (with Neil Ferguson as poster boy) is going to give not only epidemiology a huge black eye, but science generally. What will the credibility of climate science, or anything else with political impact, be now?
If you believe any of the above, then you don't understand science.

We model. We do that with the data that is available. We do this because the only alternative is sit around and see what happens shrugging our shoulders.

We know what happened during the Spanish flu in the early 20th century. We have the benefits of a century of advancement, but as you can see, even that is not enough in the face of a new virus.

No model is 100% accurate. We always operate with estimates and margins and confidence limits. And so the way to look at it is...what if the infection and fatality rates are only 50% of what they could be? That's still disastrous.

If they are only 10%? That's still disastrous.

If the mortality rate of this virus, was only half of that of the Spanish flu...that would still be disastrous. We are conservative for a reason.

And so the questions you or anyone like you, whining about the economy or that they can't go to the pub, is what number of dead people is acceptable to you so your life can go on as normal, and how exactly will you have them die? In hospitals, overwhelming medical staff? At home with their distressed families? Or at home alone and unknown?

How does that play out in your head?

Owen
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Old Wednesday 1st April 2020, 17:23   #196
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Originally Posted by Pariah View Post
Viscosity will depend on the purity of the glycerol (or aloe Vera gel if that's what you have used), but yes.. It's difficult to get glycerol above 85% pure, and the aloe gel may be less. Commercial producers may also add other agents to thicken up the gel for sale. They're saying 60% minimum for alcohol in a hand sanitizer to be effective, so you can drop the alcohol down and up the glycerol if you prefer a thicker gel, but personally I would rather have the alcohol in there.

Assuming that your ingredient alcohol is pure (don't drop below 90% and aim for 99% where possible) then you can play around with the concentration a bit if you're finding it too liquid, but I would personally only go as low as 65% of the alcohol, or even 70 if you also want to clean the odd surface too.

As a consequence of all this, there's now been a proliferation of tutorials on making your own on YouTube, so you should be able to find a mix that suits you (including "fancy" versions with Natural oils to keep your hand in good condition and whiffing nice).

All the best

Owen
Cheers Owen. I made a 75% strength solution.

Rich
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Old Wednesday 1st April 2020, 19:53   #197
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Originally Posted by tenex View Post
The problem, to put it very nicely, is that one can seldom tell exactly what Trump means (or was even aware of) when he opens his mouth, and it requires a considerable amount of guesswork and reinterpretation for those who imagine it worth the time.


Yes... well for me, it's mainly causing two things. First, terror of a police state, as illustrated in the news story Andy posted.

And second, shock and dismay at the ignorance of scientific "experts" not only as to the socioeconomic consequences of their recommendations, but the wild inaccuracy of their predictions. Consider this only two-week-old story in the Times:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...-outbreak.html
referencing this Columbia University study:
https://science.sciencemag.org/conte...e.abb3221.full
This expert "model" completely fails to predict the explosion of infections in New York City, overtaking Washington State. It doesn't attempt to distinguish between infection rates and hospitalization or death rates, or identify the relevant causal factors. Like others, it seems to greatly underestimate the rate of undetected infections, reflecting testing in Wuhan not the USA. And so on. On the basis of flimsy stuff like this, we're shutting down our country? I think I'll move to Sweden, if they'll have me. Jeg snakker lite Svensk!

(Yes, hospitals in a few places here are starting to feel overwhelmed and run out of gear, but the problem isn't a shortage of respirators. It's panic, driving people with mild symptoms to the ER before the dreaded "peak" even comes. Panic based on "models" like this.)

It really leaves me doubting a lot that I've always counted on in my life. All this (with Neil Ferguson as poster boy) is going to give not only epidemiology a huge black eye, but science generally. What will the credibility of climate science, or anything else with political impact, be now?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pariah View Post
If you believe any of the above, then you don't understand science.

We model. We do that with the data that is available. We do this because the only alternative is sit around and see what happens shrugging our shoulders.

We know what happened during the Spanish flu in the early 20th century. We have the benefits of a century of advancement, but as you can see, even that is not enough in the face of a new virus.

No model is 100% accurate. We always operate with estimates and margins and confidence limits. And so the way to look at it is...what if the infection and fatality rates are only 50% of what they could be? That's still disastrous.

If they are only 10%? That's still disastrous.

If the mortality rate of this virus, was only half of that of the Spanish flu...that would still be disastrous. We are conservative for a reason.

And so the questions you or anyone like you, whining about the economy or that they can't go to the pub, is what number of dead people is acceptable to you so your life can go on as normal, and how exactly will you have them die? In hospitals, overwhelming medical staff? At home with their distressed families? Or at home alone and unknown?

How does that play out in your head?

Owen
Valid points to each post. The 'debate' though is nowhere near that polarized. There are a couple of issues to consider:-

Science does not exist in a vacuum - observers affect experimental results (or the accuracy of modeled outcomes). - in this case, due to data collection inconsistencies the death rates (or predicted CFR) can be both underestimated (as is happening in some countries) or likely mostly overestimated.

People panicking and presenting to hospital with mild symptoms can conversely be a death sentence. Not only are you cooped up in a concentrated viral environment (no hospital filtration or hygiene system is 100% effective - and when the system becomes overloaded, this risk increases as people are lumped together in corridors etc). There is also evidence that one of the risk factors for dying of respiratory failure is extended periods of time on ventilators ! I will leave it to the medical scientists to pull up the relevant papers on that, and compare it to what we are seeing in hard hit places, and the protocols employed, and lessons learned from the 1918 Spanish Flu etc.

Models are just models.They are just a subset of reality. Certainly we should build and test them, and evaluate alternatives, and converge on better and better accuracy. However we should recognize that when assumption is built on assumption upon assumption - the final results are no more accurate than a wild guess. Again, the best person to explain this statistically has mostly left the forum due to various people. Our loss.

People are too quick to demonize the other. Too reductionist. Debates cannot be delineated into 'lives' vs 'the economy'. Everything is intertwined. If the purview of Science becomes too limited then so does its utility to Society.

I cannot help but think we could have had much better outcomes to this whole situation.

To get back to another point that Kits and Tenex made - how is this virus affecting me ? I too have concerns over a Police State. We have Parliament shut down, and already demonstrated overreach of new open-ended timeframe powers to prevent people being in public. Individuals sitting in the sun have been forced to move on or face fines/jail. Boyfriends/Girlfriends not living together have been advised not to travel to each other's places to see each other ! (something that the pollies have now back pedaled from).

All in all there is a lack of the big picture view, compounded by widespread Societal 'freak out' at the prospect of enforced isolation/lockdown and self examination under the harsh light of isolation. To make the best of that solitude is one thing, but imagine that the unease and even the distress you feel is but a fraction of the spiritual and resultant physical dis-ease and death suffered by Indigenous people removed from their connection to country.

We should be wary of further theft of wealth, and enslavement, and seriously question a world where it is illegal to sit in the sun .....






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Old Wednesday 1st April 2020, 20:49   #198
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If you believe any of the above, then you don't understand science.

We model. We do that with the data that is available. We do this because the only alternative is sit around and see what happens shrugging our shoulders.

We know what happened during the Spanish flu in the early 20th century. We have the benefits of a century of advancement, but as you can see, even that is not enough in the face of a new virus.

No model is 100% accurate. We always operate with estimates and margins and confidence limits. And so the way to look at it is...what if the infection and fatality rates are only 50% of what they could be? That's still disastrous.

If they are only 10%? That's still disastrous.

If the mortality rate of this virus, was only half of that of the Spanish flu...that would still be disastrous. We are conservative for a reason.

And so the questions you or anyone like you, whining about the economy or that they can't go to the pub, is what number of dead people is acceptable to you so your life can go on as normal, and how exactly will you have them die? In hospitals, overwhelming medical staff? At home with their distressed families? Or at home alone and unknown?

How does that play out in your head?

Owen
Post of the decade. Thanks Owen!
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Old Wednesday 1st April 2020, 21:26   #199
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I too have concerns over a Police State.
I do agree on this. Strict orders are the last thing you need when everyone (including the police!) is already under more stress than usual.
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Old Wednesday 1st April 2020, 21:47   #200
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Exclamation Extended (Parliamentary) adjournment is ‘unacceptable and dangerous for democracy’

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I do agree on this. Strict orders are the last thing you need when everyone (including the police!) is already under more stress than usual.
This present untrustworthy Government already had a woeful track record of exploitation and cronyism, and under this 'crisis' has suspended Parliament for 5 months. Circa ~$300 Billion debt has already been committed to. In the US they are talking in the Trillion $. A timely article addressing this broader picture ....

"civil liberties advocate warns extended adjournment is ‘unacceptable and dangerous for democracy’"
https://www.theguardian.com/australi...UQMTgFTJheKEk4





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