Join for FREE
It only takes a minute!
More discoveries. NEW: Zeiss Victory SF 32

Welcome to BirdForum.
BirdForum is the net's largest birding community, dedicated to wild birds and birding, and is absolutely FREE! You are most welcome to register for an account, which allows you to take part in lively discussions in the forum, post your pictures in the gallery and more.

How to cope with coronavirus

Reply
 
Thread Tools Rate Thread
Old Wednesday 1st April 2020, 13:08   #226
DMW
Registered User
 
DMW's Avatar

 
Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: Jersey
Posts: 2,014
Regarding the official mortality rates for Covid 19, I think it's worth pointing out that it's very difficult to interpret the figures when deaths with Covid 19 are being conflated with deaths from Covid 19. When a hospital inpatient with late stage cancer, who is on "end of life" palliative care, dies and is found to test positive for Covid 19, recording that death within the Covid 19 statistics is extremely misleading, but it is happening.

There will be a spectrum of less clear cut cases where a person with serious underlying health issues dies from a combination of factors, one of which is Covid 19. I get the impression that all such deaths are being attributed to the virus.
DMW is offline  
Reply With Quote
Old Wednesday 1st April 2020, 13:11   #227
andyadcock
Registered User
 
andyadcock's Avatar

 
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: UK and Occasionally St Petersburg, Russia
Posts: 18,027
Quote:
Originally Posted by opisska View Post
I am a doctor, just not that kind of a doctor :)

I am trying to not make medical statements and when it comes to vaccines and stuff, I am really just asking. But my job is to analyze data, fit them with models and try to quantify how much of conclusions we can make from them, that's literally what I do for living if I am not driving around the desert with barrels of water or drenching myself in hydraulic oil - and these more fun aspects of my work seem to be now postponed indefinitely.

It's surely hard to look at all the people who are abusing existing data in various ways and just not try to abuse them in my own!
But that cannot be done without having far more data?
__________________
Andy A
andyadcock is online now  
Reply With Quote
Old Wednesday 1st April 2020, 14:04   #228
Farnboro John
Registered User

 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Farnborough
Posts: 14,578
Quote:
Originally Posted by andyadcock View Post
But that cannot be done without having far more data?
No, more data just improves the confidence level of the conclusions from the model (for any given model). Of course, if the data are sufficiently insufficient then the confidence level is too low to allow firm conclusions to be drawn.

John
Farnboro John is offline  
Reply With Quote
Old Wednesday 1st April 2020, 14:08   #229
delia todd
Moderator but....... If I say the wrong thing put it down to Senior Moments
BF Supporter 2020
 
delia todd's Avatar

 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Perthshire
Posts: 265,061
Quote:
Originally Posted by Scridifer View Post
A veritable ambassador for friendship Delia!

Chris
Indeed she is Chris.

It was just so unexpected, and I couldn't thank her properly as she rang the bell and went... just leaving it all on the floor outside my door.

I've What'sApped her, but it's not the same, is it.
__________________
In between goals is a thing called life, that has to be lived and enjoyed

My Lockdown List report

2019 Down Under Trip Report

2006 63, 2007 52, 2008 46, 2009 32, 2010 31, 2011 27 Total 81

Latest Patch tick: Magpie
18091

The only true wisdom is knowing you know nothing - Socrates
delia todd is online now  
Reply With Quote

BF Supporter 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Support BirdForum With A Donation

Old Wednesday 1st April 2020, 14:40   #230
andyadcock
Registered User
 
andyadcock's Avatar

 
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: UK and Occasionally St Petersburg, Russia
Posts: 18,027
Quote:
Originally Posted by Farnboro John View Post
No, more data just improves the confidence level of the conclusions from the model (for any given model). Of course, if the data are sufficiently insufficient then the confidence level is too low to allow firm conclusions to be drawn.

John
So far, what we have is equivalent to 100 + ? = 150, assuming the ? is 50........
__________________
Andy A
andyadcock is online now  
Reply With Quote
Old Wednesday 1st April 2020, 14:46   #231
andyadcock
Registered User
 
andyadcock's Avatar

 
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: UK and Occasionally St Petersburg, Russia
Posts: 18,027
Quote:
Originally Posted by andyadcock View Post
A former NHS consultant has just been interviewed on tv and has opined that we may be overeacting to the COVID virus based on hugely, incomplete data sets (which I think most people realise?).

We have no acurate figures which show mortality as a % of overall infections due mainly to the absence of industrial scale testing. All we actually have, are figures for the deceased, based on testing which was carried out on obviously, very sick or high profile people which is almost certainly, a very small section of the infected. The death rate as a % of infections this consultant states, may indeed be very low?

'There is a growing body of informed opinion, that the severity of this infection has been over estimated'......
Here's the written article which formed the basis for interview mentioned above.

https://spectator.us/deadly-coronavi...lear-covid-19/
__________________
Andy A
andyadcock is online now  
Reply With Quote
Old Wednesday 1st April 2020, 16:27   #232
Jonno52
John
BF Supporter 2020
 
Jonno52's Avatar

 
Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: London, UK
Posts: 4,354
Quote:
Originally Posted by delia todd View Post
Indeed she is Chris.

It was just so unexpected, and I couldn't thank her properly as she rang the bell and went... just leaving it all on the floor outside my door.

I've What'sApped her, but it's not the same, is it.
I'd like to second what Chris has said, Delia. Good news indeed. In these sombre times, there seems to be a lot more kindness about. Stay safe and well both, and indeed all BF members and guests.
__________________
John

Last edited by Jonno52 : Wednesday 1st April 2020 at 16:30.
Jonno52 is offline  
Reply With Quote

BF Supporter 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Support BirdForum With A Donation

Old Wednesday 1st April 2020, 16:40   #233
Troubador
Moderator
 
Troubador's Avatar

 
Join Date: May 2012
Location: Sheffield
Posts: 10,076
Our next door neighbour collected medications from the local pharmacy for both me and Troubadoris. Our nephew and his wife is shopping for some items for us and our local farm shop is delivering just because they know I am in an at risk group. These are sparks of brightness that warm the heart.

Lee
__________________
"You are never alone, with a sheep"
Troubador is offline  
Reply With Quote
Old Wednesday 1st April 2020, 16:45   #234
Farnboro John
Registered User

 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Farnborough
Posts: 14,578
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jonno52 View Post
I'd like to second what Chris has said, Delia. Good news indeed. In these sombre times, there seems to be a lot more kindness about. Stay safe and well both, and indeed all BF members and guests.
Yes: lets hope the spirit can be remembered beyond the end of the crisis....

John
Farnboro John is offline  
Reply With Quote
Old Wednesday 1st April 2020, 17:34   #235
Scridifer
Registered User
BF Supporter 2020
 
Scridifer's Avatar

 
Join Date: Mar 2016
Location: Byala/Essex
Posts: 11,180
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jonno52 View Post
I'd like to second what Chris has said, Delia. Good news indeed. In these sombre times, there seems to be a lot more kindness about. Stay safe and well both, and indeed all BF members and guests.
The same to you John!

Chris
__________________
Latest Lifers: Plain Swift - Black-bellied Sandgrouse - Jack Snipe
My 2020 List
Latest Patch Tick: Icterine Warbler Latest Garden Tick: Lesser Spotted Eagle
Scridifer is online now  
Reply With Quote

BF Supporter 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Support BirdForum With A Donation

Old Wednesday 1st April 2020, 19:28   #236
Hermann
Registered User

 
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Germany
Posts: 2,097
Quote:
Originally Posted by DMW View Post
Regarding the official mortality rates for Covid 19, I think it's worth pointing out that it's very difficult to interpret the figures when deaths with Covid 19 are being conflated with deaths from Covid 19. When a hospital inpatient with late stage cancer, who is on "end of life" palliative care, dies and is found to test positive for Covid 19, recording that death within the Covid 19 statistics is extremely misleading, but it is happening.
On the other hand someone who dies of Covid 19 at home won't be counted as long as there is some other explanation for his/her death.

And in these times I don't think all deaths at home will be thoroughly investigated. Unless there are suspicous circumstances. Like a big knife in his/her back ...

Hermann
Hermann is offline  
Reply With Quote
Old Wednesday 1st April 2020, 19:37   #237
tenex
Registered User
 
tenex's Avatar

 
Join Date: Nov 2015
Location: Colorado
Posts: 814
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hermann View Post
Let me say first of all that I'm not a medical professional. So take everything I write with a grain of salt.
None of us seem to be. I do think it's appalling that we're nonetheless having to try to work out the problem ourselves here, the epidemiologists having so far failed miserably.

Quote:
Originally Posted by opisska View Post
If containment is indeed hopeless and the current restrictions are not sustainable for years, then I wonder, what is the point then?
That is my question exactly. The scenario politicians and epidemiologists have presented us with is a death trap, either way. I do not merely hope that there's a way out, I can see why. I'm very sorry for places like Italy but most will not go that way, for reasons I've alluded to that have not been well analyzed (density of living, intergenerational households, severity of initial infection, etc).

Quote:
Originally Posted by opisska View Post
I have repeatedly presented my thoughts about how reaching "herd immunity" is not really realistic without saturating the healthcare system by an order of magnitude or waiting for 10 years - there is simply too many people everywhere.
The models you're relying on here seem to be vastly overstating the true or likely rate of complications and death (at least in most places) because they haven't taken into account how many mild and undetected cases there are. This is a spectacularly simple and stupid mistake. This article is the first I've seen to go into the problem in any detail (thanks Andy). In general the disease is many times less deadly than thought (Sir Patrick Vallance has suggested 10x-20x less, it could easily be a good deal more), and I suspect mortality could be reduced even further if care were taken to avoid overwhelming initial exposure.

Quote:
Originally Posted by opisska View Post
The Czech Republic is trying to do the Korean way
Good luck with that. Korea has "smashed the epidemic" but only for now. It can perhaps be done in a small country, or even the Italian village of Vo as you mentioned, but you will have to keep doing it for quite some time (until vaccination is available) as the virus continues to spread in the rest of the world, which has been unable to do likewise.

Quote:
Originally Posted by opisska View Post
What is the plan of countries that are just having a lockdown, but not furiously working on a later plan? I don't know. Maybe some places will just relax the lockdowns and say "we need economy", but once the bodies start piling up again, is that really doable? Is the public going to accept a 3 percent death rate across the board, once it stops being a statistics and starts being names and faces of their families?
In general there is no 3% death rate, as explained above. I started breathing much easier once I realized that. But you're right, there's also no real plan to this lockdown nonsense, apart from talk of "flattening" a curve based on faulty projections. It's just "let's see how it goes and what more we have to do", which is in principle suicidal for one reason or the other, but won't come out too badly as the peak turns out not to be nearly as bad as expected.

Last edited by tenex : Wednesday 1st April 2020 at 20:41.
tenex is offline  
Reply With Quote
Old Wednesday 1st April 2020, 20:24   #238
tenex
Registered User
 
tenex's Avatar

 
Join Date: Nov 2015
Location: Colorado
Posts: 814
Quote:
Originally Posted by andyadcock View Post
Here's the written article which formed the basis for interview mentioned above.

https://spectator.us/deadly-coronavi...lear-covid-19/
This related article is a useful companion:
https://spectator.us/understand-repo...-covid-deaths/
tenex is offline  
Reply With Quote
Old Wednesday 1st April 2020, 21:39   #239
Farnboro John
Registered User

 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Farnborough
Posts: 14,578
Speaking of coping with coronavirus (at a personal rather than government level), I went to a virtual pub on Monday night - bring your own, obviously - not sure of the name, might have been The Zoom Arms.

Trouble was they forgot to call time, so it was 0230 when I went to bed a little tipsy...

We decided to have a virtual bartender to call time next week, so obviously the event was a success!

John
Farnboro John is offline  
Reply With Quote
Old Thursday 2nd April 2020, 09:37   #240
SlowLowFlyingTurkey
Registered User

 
Join Date: Oct 2011
Location: Cambridge
Posts: 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by tenex View Post
I do think it's appalling that we're nonetheless having to try to work out the problem ourselves here...
Is that what you think is happening here?
SlowLowFlyingTurkey is offline  
Reply With Quote
Old Thursday 2nd April 2020, 09:45   #241
opisska
Jan Ebr
 
opisska's Avatar

 
Join Date: Mar 2012
Location: Warszawa
Posts: 1,782
Quote:
Originally Posted by tenex View Post
None of us seem to be. I do think it's appalling that we're nonetheless having to try to work out the problem ourselves here, the epidemiologists having so far failed miserably.


That is my question exactly. The scenario politicians and epidemiologists have presented us with is a death trap, either way. I do not merely hope that there's a way out, I can see why. I'm very sorry for places like Italy but most will not go that way, for reasons I've alluded to that have not been well analyzed (density of living, intergenerational households, severity of initial infection, etc).


The models you're relying on here seem to be vastly overstating the true or likely rate of complications and death (at least in most places) because they haven't taken into account how many mild and undetected cases there are. This is a spectacularly simple and stupid mistake. This article is the first I've seen to go into the problem in any detail (thanks Andy). In general the disease is many times less deadly than thought (Sir Patrick Vallance has suggested 10x-20x less, it could easily be a good deal more), and I suspect mortality could be reduced even further if care were taken to avoid overwhelming initial exposure.


Good luck with that. Korea has "smashed the epidemic" but only for now. It can perhaps be done in a small country, or even the Italian village of Vo as you mentioned, but you will have to keep doing it for quite some time (until vaccination is available) as the virus continues to spread in the rest of the world, which has been unable to do likewise.


In general there is no 3% death rate, as explained above. I started breathing much easier once I realized that. But you're right, there's also no real plan to this lockdown nonsense, apart from talk of "flattening" a curve based on faulty projections. It's just "let's see how it goes and what more we have to do", which is in principle suicidal for one reason or the other, but won't come out too badly as the peak turns out not to be nearly as bad as expected.
These theories are in now way proven at the moment. How do they even get around the Korean data as I explained in post #215? Those data strongly suggest that the death rate is around 1.5-2 % in a population where the identification of the infected people has been thoroughly successful. And it's not just my personal disagreement, there is an endless line of epidemiologists that do not agree - it's just that the people who say "everything is better than it seems" now get a lot of public space, because it's a very nice thing to hear.

I would be very happy to turn out wrong and those "optimistic" models to turn out right, but what if it's not the case? Can we afford such mistake?

In any case, we will know more soon, for example due to the Czech antibody sampling project (and I am sure more similar activities will follow).
__________________
Final life lists:
Birds: world 2168, WP 563, gWP 600, bird photos
Mammals: 257, mammal photos
opisska is online now  
Reply With Quote
Old Thursday 2nd April 2020, 09:50   #242
3Italianbirders
Registered User
BF Supporter 2020
 
3Italianbirders's Avatar

 
Join Date: Mar 2013
Location: Tuscany - Italy
Posts: 638
Quote:
Originally Posted by Farnboro John View Post
Yes: lets hope the spirit can be remembered beyond the end of the crisis....

John
my thoughts exactly 🤞
3Italianbirders is online now  
Reply With Quote

BF Supporter 2020 Support BirdForum With A Donation

Old Thursday 2nd April 2020, 09:58   #243
Euan Buchan
The Edinburgh Birdwatcher
BF Supporter 2020
 
Euan Buchan's Avatar

 
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: Edinburgh UK
Posts: 5,157
I reckon when this is finally over there will be street parties and there will be a new bank annual holiday we will not be forgetting this in the future.
__________________
Visit The Edinburgh Birdwatcher's Website

www.theedinburghbirdwatcher.com
Euan Buchan is offline  
Reply With Quote

BF Supporter 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Support BirdForum With A Donation

Old Thursday 2nd April 2020, 11:41   #244
Farnboro John
Registered User

 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Farnborough
Posts: 14,578
Quote:
Originally Posted by Euan Buchan View Post
I reckon when this is finally over there will be street parties and there will be a new bank annual holiday we will not be forgetting this in the future.
I reckon when this is over nobody will have money for street parties (and will anyway prefer to celebrate with family and friends) and those employers still extant will be asking everyone to work all the hours possible - and in aid of that the Conservative Government won't be granting workers any extra holidays, more likely chopping current ones!

John
Farnboro John is offline  
Reply With Quote
Old Thursday 2nd April 2020, 11:50   #245
DMW
Registered User
 
DMW's Avatar

 
Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: Jersey
Posts: 2,014
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hermann View Post
On the other hand someone who dies of Covid 19 at home won't be counted as long as there is some other explanation for his/her death.

And in these times I don't think all deaths at home will be thoroughly investigated. Unless there are suspicous circumstances. Like a big knife in his/her back ...

Hermann
I can't speak for Germany, but where I live this is not the case. Our equivalent of a coroner investigates "unexpected" deaths, including deaths of chronically ill elderly people where there was no indication that they were end-of-life. I also think it's unlikely that a significant number of people will die at home of Covid19. Onset of serious illness is not immediate, and anybody with breathing difficulty is likely to seek urgent medical attention.
DMW is offline  
Reply With Quote
Old Thursday 2nd April 2020, 13:10   #246
Farnboro John
Registered User

 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Farnborough
Posts: 14,578
Quote:
Originally Posted by DMW View Post
I can't speak for Germany, but where I live this is not the case. Our equivalent of a coroner investigates "unexpected" deaths, including deaths of chronically ill elderly people where there was no indication that they were end-of-life. I also think it's unlikely that a significant number of people will die at home of Covid19. Onset of serious illness is not immediate, and anybody with breathing difficulty is likely to seek urgent medical attention.
Where you are the coroner equivalent may be able to keep up but even in normal times the coroner here in North-east Hampshire was unable to give an opinion on my late mother's death in less than a fortnight even though they were basically rubber-stamping the hospital report (deaths within 24 hours of admittance have to go to the coroner). I think it is unlikely that your coroner will contribute in a timely manner to the statistics.

John
Farnboro John is offline  
Reply With Quote
Old Thursday 2nd April 2020, 13:15   #247
3Italianbirders
Registered User
BF Supporter 2020
 
3Italianbirders's Avatar

 
Join Date: Mar 2013
Location: Tuscany - Italy
Posts: 638
Quote:
Originally Posted by Farnboro John View Post
I reckon when this is over nobody will have money for street parties (and will anyway prefer to celebrate with family and friends) and those employers still extant will be asking everyone to work all the hours possible - and in aid of that the Conservative Government won't be granting workers any extra holidays, more likely chopping current ones!

John
This is already happening to a certain extent here: my OH, who works for the local Council, has already had to take 8 days off. Their activities are among the ones deemed "essential", but workload has obviously decreased anyway thus they are working part-time, like every other day or one week on one week off. At the end of this, provided there will still be the infrastructure and the means of transportation to go on holiday he'll have no days left!
3Italianbirders is online now  
Reply With Quote

BF Supporter 2020 Support BirdForum With A Donation

Old Thursday 2nd April 2020, 13:45   #248
Xenospiza
Undescribed
 
Xenospiza's Avatar

 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: In a drawer
Posts: 11,076
The Dutch specifically state that the numbers of deaths are only those proven to be Covid-19 related and that not all deaths are being checked.

I had to cancel my holidays (no flights anymore anyway) AND I need to be working hard (just a tea break now): I will have plenty of holidays left. I just hope I'll get to spend them somewhere else than at home.
Xenospiza is offline  
Reply With Quote
Old Thursday 2nd April 2020, 14:25   #249
andyadcock
Registered User
 
andyadcock's Avatar

 
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: UK and Occasionally St Petersburg, Russia
Posts: 18,027
Quote:
Originally Posted by Xenospiza View Post
The Dutch specifically state that the numbers of deaths are only those proven to be Covid-19 related and that not all deaths are being checked.

I had to cancel my holidays (no flights anymore anyway) AND I need to be working hard (just a tea break now): I will have plenty of holidays left. I just hope I'll get to spend them somewhere else than at home.
Well it's still imprecise,did it directly lead to death, contribute to death or was it just present in someone who happened to die?
__________________
Andy A
andyadcock is online now  
Reply With Quote
Old Thursday 2nd April 2020, 18:54   #250
Xenospiza
Undescribed
 
Xenospiza's Avatar

 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: In a drawer
Posts: 11,076
Quote:
Originally Posted by andyadcock View Post
Well it's still imprecise, did it directly lead to death, contribute to death or was it just present in someone who happened to die?
I think it is not possible to know exactly if the pneumonia killed the person or some underlying decease (e.g. a final heart attack).

The literal text is: "Het werkelijke aantal overleden COVID-19 patiënten is hoger dan het aantal meldingen in de surveillance, omdat niet iedereen met mogelijke besmetting getest wordt."
which translates as:
"The true number of deceased COVID-19 patients is higher than the number in the report, because not everyone with a possible infection is being tested."
Xenospiza is offline  
Reply With Quote
Advertisement
Reply


Thread Tools
Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

vB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is Off
HTML code is Off

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Birding in the time of Coronavirus 3Italianbirders Your Birding Day 258 Yesterday 20:15
Coronavirus and wildlife trade dalat Conservation 26 Monday 6th April 2020 21:32
Laowa and Coronavirus flossiepip Sigma & Other Third Party Lenses 0 Saturday 7th March 2020 05:13
Visiting E Asia - coronavirus dantheman Information Wanted 18 Sunday 16th February 2020 10:10
El Copé, Panamá Cedric K Vacational Trip Reports 0 Wednesday 16th February 2005 09:56

{googleads}

Fatbirder's Top 1000 Birding Websites

Help support BirdForum

Page generated in 0.21714592 seconds with 40 queries
All times are GMT. The time now is 18:09.