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How to cope with coronavirus

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Old Thursday 2nd April 2020, 21:03   #251
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In any case, we will know more soon, for example due to the Czech antibody sampling project (and I am sure more similar activities will follow).
Obviously I'm looking forward to that also.

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Is that what you think is happening here?
It's what I've been doing. Of course I can't speak for anyone else.

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Old Thursday 2nd April 2020, 22:30   #252
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I know I am repeating myself, but how would you explain Korea then? They have smashed the epidemics with testing and tracing. If they only caught a small fraction of cases, why would it have been effective? I just can't wrap my head around that and imagine any other conclusion than that they must have caught most cases, simply because it worked. Yet they have 1.5 percent mortality and increasing (because a lot of people.still fight for their lives and some will inevitably lose).
Jan, as you suggested I've gone back to this post #215 and see that I somehow missed the point you made here. Obviously we can't be sure S.Korea detected all the infections, for various reasons including tracing oversights and false negative tests, but how could they have missed enormous numbers of them without eventually having further hospitalizations? And if they didn't, that 1.5% number looks fairly real.

Perhaps S.Korea had higher fatality (like Italy) due to dense communities, demographics, intergenerational families etc. Or perhaps the virus was also circulating (at the time) in some relatively healthy/young population who live alone or otherwise don't happen to get a large enough exposure to develop serious symptoms and come to notice. One way or another, I think this has to come back to the question of what leads to life-threatening rather than mild infections, and how that plays out in different situations. Fatality is not some fixed percentage. If the 1.5% is real in this case, it's very good that S.Korea stopped the spread and is trying to wait for a vaccine. I hope countries that were unable to do so will fare better in the statistics. I'll keep thinking about this, and thanks for the reminder.

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Old Friday 3rd April 2020, 02:50   #253
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This is a good read. it discusses the effect of initial exposure severity to mortality/serious illness.
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2...side-a-patient
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Old Friday 3rd April 2020, 06:05   #254
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Regarding the official mortality rates for Covid 19, I think it's worth pointing out that it's very difficult to interpret the figures when deaths with Covid 19 are being conflated with deaths from Covid 19. When a hospital inpatient with late stage cancer, who is on "end of life" palliative care, dies and is found to test positive for Covid 19, recording that death within the Covid 19 statistics is extremely misleading, but it is happening.

There will be a spectrum of less clear cut cases where a person with serious underlying health issues dies from a combination of factors, one of which is Covid 19. I get the impression that all such deaths are being attributed to the virus.
There's a conspiracy theory being touted that Italy is being overly generous in ascribing deaths to COVID, in order to claim some kind of EU funding. I can't believe that's happening but a solid, agreed and consistent policy accross all countries is required, governing how they produce their COVID, death statistics. Until this happens, the statisticians trying to produce a global, predictive model are using unreliable data which will produce wildly inaccurate results.

A perfect example in the UK when one of our best loved comedians died in hospital of heart failure. He also had 'hospital acquired' COVID-19 but he was probably going to die anyway and the virus just hurried it along.

The BBC wrote: Comedian Eddie Large, best known for being part of double act Little and Large, has died with (note that they don't say 'from') coronavirus. His family confirmed the news "with great sadness" on Facebook, saying he had been suffering with heart failure and contracted the virus in hospital.
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Old Friday 3rd April 2020, 06:27   #255
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There's a conspiracy theory being touted that Italy is being overly generous in ascribing deaths to COVID, in order to claim some kind of EU funding. I can't believe that's happening but a solid, agreed and consistent policy accross all countries is required, governing how they produce their COVID, death statistics. Until this happens, the statisticians trying to produce a global, predictive model are using unreliable data which will produce wildly inaccurate results.
There are also analysts who believe the real number of deaths in Italy (and Spain for that matter) is quite a lot higher than the official figures because quite a few old people prefer to die at home given the situation in the hospitals.

BTW, most virologists in Germany estimate the final death toll will be between 0.8 and 1.2 % of those infected, with the majority being in the 70+ age group.

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Old Friday 3rd April 2020, 06:30   #256
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There are also analysts who believe the real number of deaths in Italy (and Spain for that matter) is quite a lot higher than the official figures because quite a few old people prefer to die at home given the situation in the hospitals.

Hermann
That will depend on how each country treats 'home deaths', some are not tested and if they are, they need a definitive cause of death, it may well not have been COVID-19 that killed them, even if they have it?
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Old Friday 3rd April 2020, 06:39   #257
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Is that what you think is happening here?
Haha, indeed. . ..
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Old Friday 3rd April 2020, 07:10   #258
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There are also analysts who believe the real number of deaths in Italy (and Spain for that matter) is quite a lot higher than the official figures because quite a few old people prefer to die at home given the situation in the hospitals.

BTW, most virologists in Germany estimate the final death toll will be between 0.8 and 1.2 % of those infected, with the majority being in the 70+ age group.

Hermann
The problem with an estimate like this is interpreting what it actually means. A large proportion of people over 70 have serious chronic health conditions. If they contract Covid19 and die, what is the cause of death? It's rather like being bitten by 5 highly venomous snakes of different species, and then getting bitten by an adder before you die. Did the adder kill you?

My wife is a nurse in a care home, and she estimates that in a typical year, about 20% of residents die in the 3 months Jan-Mar. For the rest of the year, it's under 5%. The increased mortality is caused by what most of us consider to be harmless "winter bugs", but you won't see these put down as the cause of death. It will be recorded as COPD or similar.

I'm not trying to trivialise the seriousness of this virus, but I think the statistics must be looked at in the perspective of what society already lives with, such as flu.
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Old Friday 3rd April 2020, 07:23   #259
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I'm not trying to trivialise the seriousness of this virus, but I think the statistics must be looked at in the perspective of what society already lives with, such as flu.
The flu season is almost over by now, at least over here. In addition about 40% of the population in Germany - including most elderly people - are vaccinated against the flu.

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Old Friday 3rd April 2020, 07:40   #260
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There are also analysts who believe the real number of deaths in Italy (and Spain for that matter) is quite a lot higher than the official figures because quite a few old people prefer to die at home given the situation in the hospitals.

BTW, most virologists in Germany estimate the final death toll will be between 0.8 and 1.2 % of those infected, with the majority being in the 70+ age group.

Hermann
Because they're are deceased and carry the virus, it does not mean that it killed them, before they add them to the COVID death toll, a precise cause of death needs to be established where possible.

The problem is though that certainly in hospitals in Italy, people are being placed in sealed caskets after deathl and even the caskets are isolated until they are buried, no post mortem as far I know?
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Old Friday 3rd April 2020, 07:43   #261
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The problem with an estimate like this is interpreting what it actually means. A large proportion of people over 70 have serious chronic health conditions. If they contract Covid19 and die, what is the cause of death? It's rather like being bitten by 5 highly venomous snakes of different species, and then getting bitten by an adder before you die. Did the adder kill you?

My wife is a nurse in a care home, and she estimates that in a typical year, about 20% of residents die in the 3 months Jan-Mar. For the rest of the year, it's under 5%. The increased mortality is caused by what most of us consider to be harmless "winter bugs", but you won't see these put down as the cause of death. It will be recorded as COPD or similar.

I'm not trying to trivialise the seriousness of this virus, but I think the statistics must be looked at in the perspective of what society already lives with, such as flu.
Totally agree and that's why I posted this graph the other day, e.g 1 million per year from HIV and over 3 million from diabetes related issues.
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Old Friday 3rd April 2020, 07:51   #262
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The flu season is almost over by now, at least over here. In addition about 40% of the population in Germany - including most elderly people - are vaccinated against the flu.

Hermann
I'm not just talking about flu, and we also have a wide vaccination of people over 65. There is no vaccine for the common cold, for example. I come back to the point that the significant majority of deaths of elderly people in care homes occur in the winter. This increased mortality is attributable to infections that most of us consider quite trivial.
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Old Friday 3rd April 2020, 07:59   #263
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Totally agree and that's why I posted this graph the other day, e.g 1 million per year from HIV and over 3 million from diabetes related issues.
Indeed Andy. We are not rational creatures and we typically over-react to the novel, and under-react to things we are accustomed to. For example, depending on who's statistics you believe, smoking causes somewhere in the region of 100,000 deaths per year in the UK. Totally preventable with sufficient resources and motivation, but the government chooses to see tobacco as a source of revenue rather than something to be eradicated.
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Old Friday 3rd April 2020, 08:08   #264
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Indeed Andy. We are not rational creatures and we typically over-react to the novel, and under-react to things we are accustomed to. For example, depending on who's statistics you believe, smoking causes somewhere in the region of 100,000 deaths per year in the UK. Totally preventable with sufficient resources and motivation, but the government chooses to see tobacco as a source of revenue rather than something to be eradicated.
Not just the government. As far as I'm concerned, each pound of revenue the government gets from a smoker is one that they aren't putting on my twitching fuel: and for that matter I've considered throughout my career that if people choose to annihilate themselves with fags, alcohol or drugs then those vacated positions are potential promotion opportunities for me with my clean-living twitcher habits.

That seems perfectly rational to me.

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Old Friday 3rd April 2020, 08:21   #265
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Not just the government. As far as I'm concerned, each pound of revenue the government gets from a smoker is one that they aren't putting on my twitching fuel: and for that matter I've considered throughout my career that if people choose to annihilate themselves with fags, alcohol or drugs then those vacated positions are potential promotion opportunities for me with my clean-living twitcher habits.

That seems perfectly rational to me.

John
As we pay a National insurance, should those who choose to smoke, pay elevated premiums or even be exempted from cover from issues arising from smoking? It's usual for most insurance policies to mitigate the risk to themselves of having to pay out?

I've had this debate with a neighbour who had a triple heart bypass yet, upon discharge from hospital, he has made no lifestyle changes as recommended, in order to avoid having a repeat procedure in 20 years time. How many livers do you give a alcoholic who repeatedly destroys them?

Over to you.
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Old Friday 3rd April 2020, 09:13   #266
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As we pay a National insurance, should those who choose to smoke, pay elevated premiums or even be exempted from cover from issues arising from smoking? It's usual for most insurance policies to mitigate the risk to themselves of having to pay out?

I've had this debate with a neighbour who had a triple heart bypass yet, upon discharge from hospital, he has made no lifestyle changes as recommended, in order to avoid having a repeat procedure in 20 years time. How many livers do you give a alcoholic who repeatedly destroys them?

Over to you.
It has always been the case that smokers pay more than their treatment costs, though ironically the reduction in smoking is bound to lead the reduction in those sick from it so may no longer be the case.

I used to know a chap (father of a friend) who smoked, drank and played darts for his local pub team. After a massive heart attack the doctor ruled all out of court (too risky). After six months of living death he went back to his "vices" - after discussing it with his wife - and lasted another six months before a second heart attack saw him off. But he savoured every minute of those six months, not least because he'd seen the alternative. I'd rather be him than someone jealously hoarding every extra day of tedium wrung from life by self-denial.

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Old Friday 3rd April 2020, 09:57   #267
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A Swedish scientist has just been interviewed regarding their lack of quarantine / lockdown measures, bars and restaraunts still open etc.

He said, paraphrasing 'Internationally, there is no right or wrong course of action because we don't have the appropriate information to make that decision, what we have is a lot of guesswork'.

And they're not prepared to wreck their economy based on guesswork.
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Old Friday 3rd April 2020, 10:29   #268
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In this country there are currently 28 deaths (0.5%) out of 5350 cases attributed to COVID-19. There are also 50 cases (0.9%) listed as serious/critical. The Government is claiming we are leading the world in testing, with 1% of the population tested (~250,000).

I can confirm that our testing regime is whack.
Anecdotally there are many stories floating around of symptomatic people being denied testing because they don't fit the criteria. I personally know some of these and have experienced it myself. Who knows what the real case load is.

I don't think this government can claim anything other than incompetence. International passengers didn't even undergo temperature scans coming into the country from day 1.
The Home Affairs Minister has COVID-19 and the whole Department has been MIA.

Scotty from Marketing (our PM that holidayed in Hawaii while the nation burned in bushfires) saw fit to let several thousand US travellers into the country to attend a Hillsong Church event. He also let a cruise ship of several thousand passengers and crew disembark even though some were symptomatic and later tested positive. Hundreds of cases and climbing, and some deaths were the result.

In other news Parliament has been shut down for 5 months! using this virus as an excuse.
A privately selected Commission has been appointed to 'assist' in 'coordination'. Over 300 Billion$ in spending has been announced.
Several dodgy environmental decisions have been signed off by 'government' in inaccessible silence:
Mining under the Sydney Water Catchment
Public Forest Logging in Victoria (a 10 year deal)
Gas Fracking in the Pilliga Forest NSW

Since the total number of deaths is low, some further information on their individual ages and circumstances is available.
https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/amp....related-deaths





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Old Friday 3rd April 2020, 12:53   #269
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I think it is not possible to know exactly if the pneumonia killed the person or some underlying decease (e.g. a final heart attack).
More morbid Dutch stats from https://www.cbs.nl/nl-nl/nieuws/2020...rfte-neemt-toe

The mortality figures in the Netherlands show an average of 3100 deaths per week for weeks 1-10, with rises from week 11 amounting to 1600 "extra deaths" (let's say 3200, 3400, 4300 in weeks 11-13). The rise is attributable to the provinces with Covid-19 outbreaks. So the extra mortality is about 30% higher than the official "Covid-19" figures.

(2018 with a fierce influenza epidemic gives an idea how Covid-19 compares to the flu when the flu jab is not that successful...)
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Old Friday 3rd April 2020, 13:17   #270
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Another 684 have died in the UK in the last 24hrs 'with' the virus, easily the worse day so far.

Roughly 1 in 4 of those tested, have been positive for the virus according to published figures.
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Old Friday 3rd April 2020, 13:19   #271
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More stats: Lothar Wieler, President of the RKI, mentioned in today's press briefening there were about 350,000 tests (all using PCR) in Germany last week. About 8% of these tests were positive.

What you need to take into account: If you want a test, you have to be referred to the testing facility by your doctor, to make sure the testing facilities aren't flooded by people who don't have any symptoms or were not in close contact with someone who's got the virus. These 8% are therefore not representative of the total population.

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Old Friday 3rd April 2020, 13:22   #272
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Only 4% tested positive in Czech Republic and still decreasing. Are we doing more tests, having less infected people or just targeting wrong?
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Old Friday 3rd April 2020, 13:26   #273
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Only 4% tested positive in Czech Republic and still decreasing. Are we doing more tests, having less infected people or just targeting wrong?
I would imagine that you're doing more testing, you have to be highly symptomatic in the UK to be offered a test at the moment.
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Old Friday 3rd April 2020, 13:33   #274
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Another 684 have died in the UK in the last 24hrs 'with' the virus, easily the worse day so far.
Don’t forget Andy, these will include deaths that are just filtering in from communities and care homes etc deaths reported by GPs/families - so not necessarily all actually died in the last 24hrs - its just the reported case fatality figures to date every 24hrs. (no less worrisome and sad of course)
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Old Friday 3rd April 2020, 13:49   #275
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The government in Jersey has ordered enough testing kits to test the entire population (somewhere around 110,000 people) both for active infection and antibodies, which will show anybody who has been infected and recovered. Unfortunately it will be several weeks before these are fully available, but this should give some population-level data.
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