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How is the COVID virus affecting you?

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Old Thursday 2nd April 2020, 23:20   #226
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Not “somehow” but deliberately to cut down on the verbiage a bit. And besides: “nothing we can do totally avoids death”. Who needs their faces rubbed in that!
"Verbiage", "bloviator"... your hostility is your problem, not mine. As is trying to look at death without seeing it. It's brutal. But it's all on topic, and was likely to come eventually, in a thread titled "How is the COVID virus affecting you". So let's have it.

Yes, it's made me more immediately aware of mortality. I should have been anyway. Modern life lulls us.
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Old Friday 3rd April 2020, 01:05   #227
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"Verbiage", "bloviator"... your hostility is your problem, not mine. As is trying to look at death without seeing it. It's brutal. But it's all on topic, and was likely to come eventually, in a thread titled "How is the COVID virus affecting you". So let's have it.

Yes, it's made me more immediately aware of mortality. I should have been anyway. Modern life lulls us.
It’s your cavalier attitude towards the deaths of people currently under immediate threat from the virus that irks me and others, not your attitude towards your personal mortality or towards death in general, which as you’ve unnecessarily pointed out comes to us all eventually. Do you really not understand that? Or the extent to which such callously worded statements as a “modest number of dead people is acceptable to me” disincline people to read further? Or how irrelevant your experience with the kinds of “models” your “background in physics” has accustomed you to, must seem to those on the front lines of the struggle against the virus who must make do with whatever imperfect tools come to hand?

And, of course, we’re all uneasy. How could we not be in the face of a catastrophe with so many uncertainties and unknowables?
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Old Friday 3rd April 2020, 19:49   #228
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Just had a quick perusal of my GP surgery website where I usually book my appointments and there are none available at all, between now and June.
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Old Friday 3rd April 2020, 19:57   #229
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Personal provocations are clearly unwise at a hard time so I'm going to try to avoid involvement in any more of them. Each of us will handle crisis in their own personal way. Ideally we should also be able to discuss policy choices and the shape of the future we want people to live to see, but that doesn't seem to be working well, and events are now developing too rapidly to track or predict. Good luck to all, now and afterward.
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Old Friday 3rd April 2020, 20:57   #230
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Graphs of infections are bound to look sinister with a virus most of the population is expected to contract. Attention should be paid instead to hospitalizations and deaths.
It us interactive - you can filter for deaths

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You're right about the oddness of the title (Don't Believe The Models), the article's point seems to be quite the opposite. The author is a "writer" and "academic" not a scientist or doctor, and the argument she's making is the one I've been expecting and dreading to start hearing: the world is not going to end after all because people heeded the predictions of the models and took action, never mind whether they were remotely accurate or not. (She also seems confused as to whether we're trying to "stop" the spread, as many people are.)
The article is about interpreting models and does a decent job I think. I don't think the author makes any claims about the accuracy of any particular model at any particular time given any set of estimated parameters. It is just a half decent chat about what modelling means.
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Old Saturday 4th April 2020, 05:51   #231
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Part of the way this virus is affecting me is societal observation - how far have we come as a civilization, as a species.

Fear, judgement, exploitation, survival, kindness, care, generosity, science, politics, economics, tolerance, cooperation, love .... like some sort of grand novel, only with the unfortunate fact that some deaths will not just be part of the normal ebb and flow - remote numbers to try and grapple with (even though we know there are real lives and people involved) but may affect us personally, directly and most untimely. If we struggle to control anything else, let's at least be nice to one another.

I sincerely hope that all in the wider BF family manage to come through this unscathed. At times like this it matters not which side of the political coin we prefer, whether we see the bigger picture, or are puppets in a play, which team we go for, which tribe we belong to, cat lover, dog lover, or those who just prefer a fresh, clean smelling house - lol , coffee or tea drinkers, or something a little stronger, black or white, short or tall, rich or poor, straight or bent like a boomerang ...... we are all in this together - all very human.

Here is an interesting article on the Australian response with a focus on the political divide (closing of it), and juxtapositions to other ground shaking events in our recent past. A surprising story of tolerance and goodwill, and not just a little synchronicity ......
https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2020-...O9UBVqpZ8ZyYA8






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Old Saturday 4th April 2020, 06:33   #232
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[quote=Chosun Juan;3979989

If we struggle to control anything else, let's at least be nice to one another.

I sincerely hope that all in the wider BF family manage to come through this unscathed. At times like this it matters not which side of the political coin we prefer, whether we see the bigger picture, or are puppets in a play, which team we go for, which tribe we belong to, cat lover, dog lover, or those who just prefer a fresh, clean smelling house - lol , coffee or tea drinkers, or something a little stronger, black or white, short or tall, rich or poor, straight or bent like a boomerang ...... we are all in this together - all very human.

Chosun [/QUOTE]


Well said, CJ, well said.

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Old Saturday 4th April 2020, 07:31   #233
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I agree, not just ‘now’ and ‘at these times’ we should be ‘nice’ (whatever ‘nice’ means to different people) but at all times we should treat people and the things they say with respect - However, that also requires a tempering of language and views that are likely to be offensive and inflammatory to large numbers of people on the forum, especially to those who are more effected than others by the coronavirus. Reading back this thread from the beginning, (and other threads on the same topic) it’s easy to understand why some people have become upset and angry (often at the same people) and have simply dropped out of all these discussions on coronavirus to avoid exactly that - sadly the ones that seem most adept at avoiding conflict! This pandemic is effecting everyone in different countries very differently (depending on their government response) and to different degrees depending on a/ the severity of the outbreak in their immediate area and b/ how much their family and friends (and themselves, perhaps in a high risk/elderly group) are personally at risk. We should bear that in mind too I think - people aren’t saints!
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Old Saturday 4th April 2020, 16:12   #234
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Death rate in the UK as against those testing positive, is rather alarmingly at over 10%, that's higher than both Spain and Italy.
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Old Sunday 5th April 2020, 07:46   #235
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Death rate in the UK as against those testing positive, is rather alarmingly at over 10%, that's higher than both Spain and Italy.
How many people have been tested, in what circumstances and in how many people have not been tested?

Percentages and figures can be viewed in many different ways. If the overall testing rate is low but you test all the dead people then your rate will be artificially high.

My friend, who had been to northern Italy and showed signs of the virus, went to hospital and was not tested. His travel companion felt he ill and it was serious enough to visit hospital three times with chest pains - not tested either.

There result is both are fine now but neither were tested...
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Old Sunday 5th April 2020, 08:23   #236
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There result is both are fine now but neither were tested...
My best friend lives in an appartment block, shared lifts, shared doors to building, shared communal areas eg laundry, reception lounge etc. One person died, another returned recovered two weeks ago - no one else tested. Day before yesterday, 2 people on my friend’s corridor taken to hospital and tested positive, one critical - no one else in building tested. Yesterday, my friend now experiencing symptoms. Two weeks since first casualty- over 40 people living in building mostly over the age of 65, no deep clean after first casualty and no testing of other residents who are living in very close proximity to each other. The ‘tip of the iceberg’ may not be an adequate phrase ... but the percentage of people dying in intensive care ‘with’ c19 is apparently just over 50%
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Old Sunday 5th April 2020, 08:36   #237
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How many people have been tested, in what circumstances and in how many people have not been tested?

Percentages and figures can be viewed in many different ways. If the overall testing rate is low but you test all the dead people then your rate will be artificially high.

My friend, who had been to northern Italy and showed signs of the virus, went to hospital and was not tested. His travel companion felt he ill and it was serious enough to visit hospital three times with chest pains - not tested either.

There result is both are fine now but neither were tested...
Total confirmed cases 41,903 and AFAIK, these will be people who are seriously symptomatic, of those, 4,313 have died.

The governmet does give a figure for how many people have been tested and the infection rate was somewhere between 1 in 4/5 that were positive for the infection.
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Old Sunday 5th April 2020, 09:04   #238
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Total confirmed cases 41,903 and AFAIK, these will be people who are seriously symptomatic, of those, 4,313 have died.

The governmet does give a figure for how many people have been tested and the infection rate was somewhere between 1 in 4/5 that were positive for the infection.
So 1 in 4/5 tested are positive
40000 positive 4000 deaths

Best case
4000/200000 = 2%
Worst case
4000/160000 = 2.5%

This is still on the high side because uk are only testing those showing extreme symptoms.

You have to imagine that the actual figure of those dying is well below 1%...
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Old Sunday 5th April 2020, 09:05   #239
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My best friend lives in an appartment block, shared lifts, shared doors to building, shared communal areas eg laundry, reception lounge etc. One person died, another returned recovered two weeks ago - no one else tested. Day before yesterday, 2 people on my friend’s corridor taken to hospital and tested positive, one critical - no one else in building tested. Yesterday, my friend now experiencing symptoms. Two weeks since first casualty- over 40 people living in building mostly over the age of 65, no deep clean after first casualty and no testing of other residents who are living in very close proximity to each other. The ‘tip of the iceberg’ may not be an adequate phrase ... but the percentage of people dying in intensive care ‘with’ c19 is apparently just over 50%
Let’s hope that these people come back safe...
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Old Sunday 5th April 2020, 21:28   #240
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A wicked problem.
The virus replicates in the upper respiratory tract, so one is very infectious early on, even before one has significant symptoms.
The antibody tests are the most reliable, but only tell whether one has been infected after some days and do not show whether the individual is still infectious or cured.
So we won't know how to single out the most infectious carriers, even once we get a fast and reliable test.
The belief is that people who have survived the virus are immune, although that is still unproven.
Assuming it is true, one might anticipate the critical services using their immunes to help maintain these essential operations, such as sewers, water, power etc.
That still leaves the rest of the economy in collapse.
Martial law and rationing may be in the cards, given the ineffective response to date.
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Old Sunday 5th April 2020, 21:41   #241
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Martial law and rationing may be in the cards, given the ineffective response to date.
Things must look pretty dire from within NY.
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Old Monday 6th April 2020, 00:50   #242
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A wicked problem.
The virus replicates in the upper respiratory tract, so one is very infectious early on, even before one has significant symptoms.
The antibody tests are the most reliable, but only tell whether one has been infected after some days and do not show whether the individual is still infectious or cured.
So we won't know how to single out the most infectious carriers, even once we get a fast and reliable test.
The belief is that people who have survived the virus are immune, although that is still unproven.
Assuming it is true, one might anticipate the critical services using their immunes to help maintain these essential operations, such as sewers, water, power etc.
That still leaves the rest of the economy in collapse.
Martial law and rationing may be in the cards, given the ineffective response to date.
There are reports emerging that recovery can be very swift, or in some cases takes weeks of rollercoaster like symptoms and health levels during which the individual is still a carrier. This is an added complexity for testing.

Currently there is something like ~half a thousand recorded cases in this country which are of unknown origin (can't be traced back to any travel vector etc) , and thus classified as community transmission. It is likely that the numbers of people infected is orders of magnitude higher, and those who 'have' been carriers (but unrecorded cases due to being asymptomatic, mild symptoms, or denied testing, etc) is many orders of magnitude higher again.

Large parts of the population thus could be in a position to be able to move around freely and contribute in whatever way (although hygiene precautions are still necessary as they could transport the publicly accquired virus via clothes, hands, paper, parcels, etc - even though they themselves are immune).





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Old Monday 6th April 2020, 01:29   #243
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Things must look pretty dire from within NY.
They are, but only in spots. Some hospitals near or beyond capacity, yet lots of runners and bikers today in Manhattan Central Park.
Masks are now worn by a majority, grocery delivery is still available, garbage is still picked up and mail is still delivered.
The question is whether these key services can be maintained. If they falter, things will indeed become dire.
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Old Monday 6th April 2020, 01:34   #244
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There are reports emerging that recovery can be very swift, or in some cases takes weeks of rollercoaster like symptoms and health levels during which the individual is still a carrier. This is an added complexity for testing.

Currently there is something like ~half a thousand recorded cases in this country which are of unknown origin (can't be traced back to any travel vector etc) , and thus classified as community transmission. It is likely that the numbers of people infected is orders of magnitude higher, and those who 'have' been carriers (but unrecorded cases due to being asymptomatic, mild symptoms, or denied testing, etc) is many orders of magnitude higher again.

Large parts of the population thus could be in a position to be able to move around freely and contribute in whatever way (although hygiene precautions are still necessary as they could transport the publicly accquired virus via clothes, hands, paper, parcels, etc - even though they themselves are immune).

Chosun
Studies in Germany suggest that the transmission is overwhelmingly by air, with no evidence of infection from surfaces such as doorknobs or packages.
A cadre of immune workers will be very much needed to ensure continuity of basic services such as power, water and communications as this outbreak drags on.
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Old Monday 6th April 2020, 07:12   #245
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Exclamation "My honest view is this will go on for 18 months to some degree"

https://www.sbs.com.au/news/will-aus...DhkkTa3YjZ_VwI






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Old Monday 6th April 2020, 07:19   #246
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It won't be allowed to go on for 18 months, it will put the World economy back to the dark ages.
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Old Monday 6th April 2020, 08:03   #247
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The problem is that this is untrue. At no point in the speech in question did Trump accuse hospital staff of anything. He questioned the high quantities of masks being delivered and raised the possibility that they were "going out the back door". No mention of doctors, nurses, or anybody else working in hospitals.

It's funny that Cuomo raised the exact same issue earlier in March, although he explicitly claimed it was theft, and faced no such criticism.
Don't be absurd. Trump did more than just question but clearly suggested theft was involved. That's what pretty much everyone understood from his comments. No other interpretation of the phrase "going out the back door" is possible and doing so on such a grand scale would require the connivance of hospital staff. That he couldn't grasp what was blindingly obvious but sought to defame others tells us all we need to know about his psychology and intelligence.
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Old Monday 6th April 2020, 10:04   #248
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Don't be absurd. Trump did more than just question but clearly suggested theft was involved. That's what pretty much everyone understood from his comments. No other interpretation of the phrase "going out the back door" is possible and doing so on such a grand scale would require the connivance of hospital staff. That he couldn't grasp what was blindingly obvious but sought to defame others tells us all we need to know about his psychology and intelligence.
It is clearly happening, it's human nature to protect your own if you can.

I don't know about wholescale theft for profit and I'm not suggesting this has happened but I do know people here who have a relative/s in the NHS and they all seem to have faces masks and hand sanitiser. If every NHS worker took one box of masks and one bottle of hand sanitiser and I'm not saying they have, that would be a lot of stock lost.

I don't know anyone who has their own ventilator though.........
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Old Monday 6th April 2020, 10:45   #249
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... I do know people here who have a relative/s in the NHS and they all seem to have faces masks and hand sanitiser. ...
That's interesting.

OH was in the hardware store a couple of weeks ago as they had hand sanitiser and wipes in stock, allowing one bottle and one packet per person. The lady in front of him asked if she would be allowed to buy ten of each as she was an NHS nurse and she needed them for the hospital. After she had shown her NHS ID card, they allowed her to buy them. I suppose a cynic might say she wasn't really going to take them to the hospital, but I prefer to see the good in people.
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Old Monday 6th April 2020, 15:48   #250
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Things seem to have settled into an adaptive modus operandi where I am - For the first time in nearly 3 weeks I ventured out from my self-imposed exile - apart from a short bike ride yesterday- I haven’t left the house but food was getting low - donned with mask (I don’t think they’re completely useless) and surgical gloves, I walked to town. First a visit to the bank - it was nearly empty and the staff were sitting behind plastic shields. I don’t know whether these would be much use if anyone sneezed virus in the bank as it is quite a small space and mostly open plan.

Next stop, Post Office - I arrived just in front of an elderly lady and there were, duly spaced out (physically!), 3 others waiting- the PO were only letting one customer in at a time - we let the elderly lady with her walker in first as someone came out. All the staff were wearing gloves.

I then walked to Aldi - at the entrance a weird/drunk man starting shouting at me that I was going to die anyway, “if you’re gonna get it you’re gonna get it!” - I did feel a bit daft in the mask and gloves but If I get infected, there’s an almost certain chance I will end up in hospital. Aldi were only letting in 40 people at a time. There was a member of staff on the door by a table with an enormous hand gel pump and leaflets- all very organised. I was glad to see there were no shortages compared to the last shop I did here nearly 3 weeks ago. The only product sold out was Ketchup but that’s typical of where I live! I called my volunteer driver friend who picked me up with my shopping. I sat in the back seat. En route to my house, we stopped to pick up some small pump containers my friend had at home so I could fill them up for him from my 5 (now 3.5) ltr bottle of sanitiser. When we got back my friend unloaded my shopping while I filled up his bottles with hand sanitiser. My friend immediately left to avoid us having prolonged contact.

So that’s how Coronavirus is effecting me today - everything that use to be part of mundane everyday living like shopping, going to the bank, even passing time with a friend is completely dominated by this pandemic to the point life has simply adapted.
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