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AGW and rising sea levels

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Old Thursday 18th January 2018, 06:10   #451
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New research suggests AGW more manageable than previously thought—

https://www.theguardian.com/science/...e_iOSApp_Other
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Old Thursday 18th January 2018, 14:57   #452
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Originally Posted by fugl View Post
New research suggests AGW more manageable than previously thought—

https://www.theguardian.com/science/...e_iOSApp_Other
Coupled with this summary:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-42736397
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Old Monday 12th February 2018, 20:38   #453
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AGW and Dumbo’s infrastructure plan—

Trump’s Infrastructure Plan May Ignore Climate Change. It Could Be Costly.
https://nyti.ms/2BldfFJ
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Old Saturday 14th April 2018, 21:26   #454
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AGW and the gulf stream—

https://www.theguardian.com/environm...global-warming
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Old Wednesday 13th June 2018, 19:20   #455
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AGW and Antarctica. More bad news—

https://www.theatlantic.com/science/...-worse/562748/
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Old Thursday 14th June 2018, 03:21   #456
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Is there nothing that irresponsible fathead won't stoop to to placate his base?

Trump Wants to Bail Out Coal and Nuclear Power. Here’s Why That Will Be Hard.
https://nyti.ms/2HITojj?smid=nytcore-ios-share
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Old Wednesday 4th July 2018, 15:11   #457
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Exclamation The HOTTEST temperature EVER recorded on Earth !!!

With all the hoohah over hot temperatures lately, it pays to bear in mind that the hottest temperature ever recorded on earth remains the 56.7°C (134°F) at Greenland Ranch, Death Valley, California recorded on the 10th July, 1913 ..... nearly 105 years ago!
http://www.guinnessworldrecords.com/...d-temperature/



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Old Wednesday 4th July 2018, 16:11   #458
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We've had an unbelievably cool and wet Spring here. One can always count on the weather to change....it's what weather (and climate) does.
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Old Wednesday 4th July 2018, 19:07   #459
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Originally Posted by Chosun Juan View Post
With all the hoohah over hot temperatures lately, it pays to bear in mind that the hottest temperature ever recorded on earth remains the 56.7°C (134°F) at Greenland Ranch, Death Valley, California recorded on the 10th July, 1913 ..... nearly 105 years ago!
http://www.guinnessworldrecords.com/...d-temperature/



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I've never felt as hot as in Death Valley, it was like stepping into a furnace...sweat instantly evaporating. UAE in June was a close second!

But spare a thought for poor old Iceland, they've had rain every single day since the beginning of May
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Old Wednesday 4th July 2018, 19:08   #460
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One can always count on the weather to change....it's what weather (and climate) does.
Worth finding out why it does that don't you think?
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Old Wednesday 4th July 2018, 19:17   #461
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Stick This In Your Climate Model

It's all getting very, very unsettling. Volcanoes! By golly what will they think up next?

Ed
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Old Wednesday 4th July 2018, 19:34   #462
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It's all getting very, very unsettling. Volcanoes! By golly what will they think up next?

Ed
Contrary to what the author claims, the study does no such thing as "prove the Pine Island Glacier is melting and retreating from geothermal heat [...] not man-made global warming".
Excellent example of twisting a good scientific study to suit one's own agenda.

Sigh.
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Old Wednesday 4th July 2018, 19:54   #463
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Please prove that it is melting and retreating from man-made global warming.

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Old Wednesday 4th July 2018, 20:23   #464
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Please prove that it is melting and retreating from man-made global warming.

Ed
Sure

Glaciers all over the Antarctic are showing accelerated rates of retreat:
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-018-0082-z
The vast majority of these are not over geothermally active areas; the only thing that's changes there over the past few thousand years is the climate.
So while the PIG may well experience (semi)continuous losses due to geothermal activity at it's base, this does not in any way preclude additional losses due to atmospheric warming, changes in precipitation or wind direction/strength. The author has no basis for ruling out anthropogenic climate change because a) the two factors are entirely unrelated; and b) his specific example cannot be extrapolated to adjacent glaciers in the region which are all retreating.

In addition, he ignores the fact that geological processes such as mantle plumes, hotspots etc. operate on time scales of millions to tens of millions of years. Thus, they are certainly drivers of global (and regional) climate on those time scales, but not on the ones we're talking about here (hundreds to tens of thousands of years). To give a simple example: the volcanic systems on Iceland (which is itself on top of a massive hotspot) have been active for millions of years yet for the majority of that time have been covered in glaciers and small ice caps. Even after subglacial eruptions or episodes of increased geothermal activity the ice caps remain and restore their mass in a relatively short space of time. Yet since the last few decades all Icelandic glaciers have experienced the same retreat we see everywhere else. Not related to plate tectonics, geostatic rebound and what have you, but simply due to atmospheric changes.

It puzzles me when a trained and experienced geologist ignores such basic facts.

Cheers,
Joost

Edit: more info on the theory here (http://www.plateclimatology.com/) - it is very poorly justified and a lot of the underlying assumptions fly in the face of current oceanography, geology and marine ecology knowledge. Just one example: "Increased ocean heat may also lead increased ability to absorb CO2" ignores high school grade chemistry: solubility of gases decreases with increasing temperature. Facepalm!
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Old Wednesday 4th July 2018, 21:31   #465
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Joost,

I see no evidence that the Pine Island Glacier is melting and retreating from man-made global warming. Other than model-based conjecture, where is it?

I also can't find the statement "... Increased ocean heat may also lead increased ability to absorb CO2" in Kamis' Plate Climatology Theory link.

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Old Wednesday 4th July 2018, 22:01   #466
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...Glaciers all over the Antarctic are showing accelerated rates of retreat:
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-018-0082-z
The vast majority of these are not over geothermally active areas; the only thing that's changes there over the past few thousand years is the climate.
The article you quoted was a survey done between 2010 and 2016. What could that inform us about changes over the past few thousand years? Recent research has also revealed the presence of upwards of a million sub-ocean volcanos (yeah, that gave me pause as well), but their effects are also not included in climate models.

Ed
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Old Wednesday 4th July 2018, 23:40   #467
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The article you quoted was a survey done between 2010 and 2016. What could that inform us about changes over the past few thousand years? Recent research has also revealed the presence of upwards of a million sub-ocean volcanos (yeah, that gave me pause as well), but their effects are also not included in climate models.

Oh, well.
Background noise. Or is there evidence for a recent spurt of sub-oceanic volcanic activity sufficient to account for “modern” global warming?

Oh, well. . ..
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Old Thursday 5th July 2018, 02:53   #468
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Geothermally active areas in 2018. Yes, its been going on for a long, long time — because the earth is dynamic, not static. Climate models do not include these factors.

Ed
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Old Thursday 5th July 2018, 13:39   #469
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Honestly Ed, I don't even know where to begin to address this...and I'm not trying to be funny.

Maybe, for starters, buy an up-to-date geology textbook and see how you get on?
Then move on to oceanography, atmospheric science, glaciology, and finally biogeochemistry (the interactions of biosphere and planet).
It's fascinating stuff, I'm sure you'll enjoy it.

Reading an article like Kamis' is like watching a Lego-obsessed toddler telling an F1 engineer they've got it all wrong because the car isn't all colourful and made of bricks.

For those wanting a scientifically accurate overview of the West Antarctic Rift System look here:
https://www.nap.edu/read/12168/chapter/10

Contrast that with Kamis:
"To qualify as a scientifically acceptable segment of the Pacific Ring of Fire, the West Antarctic volcano and fault belt needs to clear three geological hurdles: contain an impressive number of active volcanoes, contain an impressive number of active faults, and connect in a geologically proper fashion onto the two currently defined horseshoe ends of the Pacific Ring of Fire. Reliable and abundant evidence proves that it clears all three hurdles."
As a scientist (and especially one with a degree in Earth Science) that makes me cringe. It reminds me of films like The Core, or more recently Geostorm.

Some more 'gems':
"[The Pacific Ring of Fire] is the sole heating source of 87,189,915,062 billion gallons of Pacific Ocean water. This geologically induced heating generates all El Ninos, the Earth’s most significant climate-altering phenomenon"
WTF? The sole heating source. Does this guy realize we orbit a star? Has he even heard of evaporation?

"Modern-day anomalous ice melting on the Antarctica continent is limited to the West Antarctic region"
That old chestnut. Shown to be wrong years ago but still desperately clung to by uninformed/disingenuous denialists.

Or this from his position "paper" on "Plate Climatology": "Given that deep ocean chemosynthesis exists, it is a logical next step to theorize that increased heat anomalies in the oceans also have an effect / alter shallow plankton blooms. More heat leads to more plankton, more CO2 consumption, and more oxygen generation."
Hydrogen sulfide chemosynthesis produces sulfur, not oxygen. And it occurs around geothermal vents which are, oh 3 to 4 km below the photic zone where photosynthetic phytoplankton blooms occur. So if he actually meant phototrophs (which need sunlight) then how exactly are those influenced by deep sea geothermal areas? The easy answer: they aren't.

Ed, trust me on this one, it's complete codswallop.

It's no wonder he writes for Principia Scientific International - a group so fringe they even get into fights with 'mainstream' climate skeptics...

Oh and finally the IPCC has an entire section dedicated to volcanoes. And here is a nice special issue of Nature Geoscience on volcanoes & climate: https://www.nature.com/collections/dkktckckrh Might it just be possible that those thousands of smart and well-informed scientists considered those big rumbly smoky mountain things? Maybe?

Cheers,
Joost

P.S. sorry about the sarcasm, I know I should take a chill pill but I simply can't stand this kind of stuff. Because it actually matters.
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Old Thursday 5th July 2018, 20:22   #470
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Forgot to mention this website earlier, it does an excellent job explaining why geothermal heat is not a driver of climate: https://www.skepticalscience.com/heatflow.html

Cheers,
J
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Old Friday 6th July 2018, 00:07   #471
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Joost,

Gotta agree that you're not a poster boy for dispassionate reasoning.

I just got back from an eye exam and can't see too clearly yet, — so I'll keep this short. Other than throwing the kitchen sink (sarcasm) at everyone who triggers your displeasure, and throwing a textbook at me, you have thus far avoided addressing the main question at hand. Given the factual evidence of strong volcanic activity beneath glaciers can you present a dispassionate argument to show that anthropogenic global warming is nonetheless the primary causative agent for glacial retreat? It seems to me what you are doing is simply dismissing any alternate explanation that doesn't suit you, masked by sarcasm about the author.

For example, I can't help but remember the caustic "sarcasm" on post #135 applied to an eminent geologist, Don Easterbrook, regarding his book "Evidence-Based Climate Science: Data Opposing CO2 Emissions as the Primary Source of Global Warming." There, you said
Quote:
...I'll happily overlook the fact that it looks like a piece of work cobbled together by a 16 year old and I can even get over the subjective writing style ("the lame excuse...", "have failed badly" etc.). However, beyond that it is an opinion piece, and by an infamous character at that ...
That "infamous character's" achievements are reflected in a bibliography as long as your arm (attached). As for Kamis, he has my respect for putting forward an interesting theory.

Just my opinion.

PS. Just read the skeptical science piece. Nope, it doesn't answer the primary question either.
Attached Files
File Type: pdf Don J. Easterbrook publications.pdf (69.8 KB, 8 views)
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Old Friday 6th July 2018, 09:46   #472
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Joost,

Gotta agree that you're not a poster boy for dispassionate reasoning.

I just got back from an eye exam and can't see too clearly yet, — so I'll keep this short. Other than throwing the kitchen sink (sarcasm) at everyone who triggers your displeasure, and throwing a textbook at me, you have thus far avoided addressing the main question at hand. Given the factual evidence of strong volcanic activity beneath glaciers can you present a dispassionate argument to show that anthropogenic global warming is nonetheless the primary causative agent for glacial retreat? It seems to me what you are doing is simply dismissing any alternate explanation that doesn't suit you, masked by sarcasm about the author.

For example, I can't help but remember the caustic "sarcasm" on post #135 applied to an eminent geologist, Don Easterbrook, regarding his book "Evidence-Based Climate Science: Data Opposing CO2 Emissions as the Primary Source of Global Warming." There, you said

That "infamous character's" achievements are reflected in a bibliography as long as your arm (attached). As for Kamis, he has my respect for putting forward an interesting theory.

Just my opinion.

PS. Just read the skeptical science piece. Nope, it doesn't answer the primary question either.
Ed, a number of things:

First, see attached.

Second, hope your eyes are fine, I'd hate for a fellow birder to loose their eyesight.

Third, I did address the specific position taken in the Kamis piece you posted (geothermal heat is the main driver for glacial retreat in the Antarctic) and gave various reasons why this is not the case. In a friendly and dispassionate way I might add. As usual in this thread (and the parallel cell towers one) every single point I made was ignored. So accusing me of 'avoiding addressing the main question at hand' and just resorting to 'sarcasm' is both incorrect and unfair. Note that I made a couple of observations about Kamis' lack of scientific basis as well (again ignored) - whilst these were put in an exasperated way they are nonetheless valid statements.

Fourth, you have to be a lot more precise in your question. It is important to distinguish between geothermal heat at the Earth's surface and gasses emitted during volcanic eruptions. So please define what you mean by 'volcanic activity', and 'strong' - and also whether you mean to include temporal variability in intensity. Additionally, please clarify whether you mean glacial retreat on a global scale, a regional scale (say, the Antarctic, or over the West Antarctic Rift System), or a local scale (e.g. Pine Island Glacier or the Amundsen Sector).
As currently phrased, is your position that subglacial volcanoes (either by erupting and/or producing geothermal heat) are the primary driver for accelerated recent glacial retreat on a global scale? Or do you want to rephrase the question? I'll await resolution before answering so we don't go back and forth whilst missing the point.

Fifth and final, I absolutely welcome scientists who question going theories, data quality, interpretations etc. What I cannot stand are scientists whose ideas are demonstrably incorrect, yet continue to present themselves as 'experts' at public platforms. Critical evaluation cuts both ways Ed, and someone like Kamis would do well to critically examine his own ideas because (as I've pointed out) there are glaring errors and misapprehensions in there. To then go and publicly criticise the work of all those 'mainstream' climate scientists is at best delusional and at worst dangerous. You may judge that harshly disrespectful, but unless such characters themselves respect the vast amounts of scientifically obtained information available to them, and hard-won expertise and reputation of their colleagues, then I'm quite comfortable throwing a bit of sarcasm their way.

Or failing that (and given they're mostly old white men) a kitchen sink will do.
That was a joke.
Ha. Ha.

Cheers,
Joost
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Old Friday 6th July 2018, 10:39   #473
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PS. Just read the skeptical science piece. Nope, it doesn't answer the primary question either.
The article was about geothermal heat, which I thought was what we were discussing? If it's volcanic eruptions you're after have a look at the other pages on the same site:
https://www.skepticalscience.com/com...-volcanoes.htm
https://www.skepticalscience.com/vol...termediate.htm

And for a full list of rebuttals to the most commonly used 'climate myths' and misconceptions:
https://www.skepticalscience.com/argument.php

Cheers,
Joost
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Old Friday 6th July 2018, 11:08   #474
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For example, I can't help but remember the caustic "sarcasm" on post #135 applied to an eminent geologist, Don Easterbrook, regarding his book "Evidence-Based Climate Science: Data Opposing CO2 Emissions as the Primary Source of Global Warming." There, you said

That "infamous character's" achievements are reflected in a bibliography as long as your arm (attached).
https://www.skepticalscience.com/don...f-reality.html
https://profmandia.wordpress.com/201...ic-dishonesty/

Fully deserved imo.

And by the way his publication list includes every single abstract or opinion piece he's written, so we're really talking half an arm of original research here (at best), most of it published decades ago and on geomorphology.
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Old Friday 6th July 2018, 13:55   #475
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Apologies for spamming the thread today, but this study by (ex/current) colleagues just popped up in my inbox:
http://www.nessc.nl/polar-amplification/

"Polar regions warm up stronger due to increasing CO2, even when they were ice-free, new NESSC-research shows. A new reconstruction of ocean temperatures during the Eocene, a geological time period from 56 to 34 million years ago when both of Earth’s poles were not covered by ice and snow, shows that the concentration of atmospheric CO2 determines the changing temperatures of the entire planet, and that temperatures changed more in polar regions than in the tropics. The findings are published today in the leading science journal Nature."

Hopefully it is of interest; as always I'm happy to discuss the specifics

Cheers,
J
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