Corona virus threat to birding (1 Viewer)

dantheman said:

Very much trust your folks stay well. It's a similar situation for my parents down in France - obviously I can't help them at all right now but have told them (!) to stop all their domestic aid (which they are entitled to) etc, quarantine/disinfect their food deliveries, and only accept essential health visitors from now on.

Also (and not just for brownie points on here ) - went round to the neighbour this afternoon to enquire if she had local family who would pick up shopping etc for her. Turns out she doesn't, so I said she shouldn't go down the shops any more and we would do her shopping etc for her ...

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Thanks Dan, it's sincerely appreciated. I wish the same to yours, and obviously everyone else, but in this post especially to everyone in BF. We're all together in this and the only way to beat this is to stay together and help eachother.

dantheman said:

Haven't seen any modelling for how many would get it seriously if we could exclude the older/at risk, and get most of the population to get it out of 'the way' so to speak (but should be easy enough to do, on current 'assumptions'.)

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As a purely theoretical speculative exercise this is what I think would happen, if isolating all elderly people away from the rest of the population could be feasible/possible (which I don't think it would, except in very small communities): most younger people have socialization rates probably significantly higher than those of older people; in the absence of older people, younger people would not refrain as much of contacting others (because the risk was lower for most, according to the current perception) and the transmission rate of the virus would go sky high; national health services capacity would be overwhelmed fast (in any country) and an immense quantity of younger people would not receive any treatment at all; mortality would be very large among people, from the virus, and other minor problems usually easily treated that would need treatment simultaneously; lots of medical personal would contract the virus and nhs capacity would decrease even further. So, in my opinion, not a very good scenario; I think the presence of elderly people does in fact help other people to accept the change in behaviours that we are all (temporarily!) being asked to follow (or imposed, depending on the case).
The thing with this virus is that if it indeed does become endemic (as been suggested by some researchers) then it is a matter of time to contact with it. China is now starting to experience a second wave of cases, now coming from outside, almost as an "echo" of the first outbreak. A complicated pattern seems to be developing, it's really too early to understand it, it seems. Also, when a vaccine is finally produced, it might induce a violent physiological reaction in the group now considered of higher risk.
We'll see how it goes. Hopefully better than worse. Some luck will also be needed, but much is in our hands, at least I want to believe that.

Jeff hopkins said:

Just saw an interesting idea in the Philly Inquirer. Some stores are instituting "senior hours" when only seniors can shop in order to reduce their exposure to asymptomatic carriers.

IMO that's actually pretty clever.

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Yep, saw that too, and cannot agree more. I think that measure could/should be implemented everywhere as of now.

RafaelMatias said:

That's actually not true. Nobody knows that, and current evidence suggests this is going to be endemic in a number of places. Being a new virus, there's no info on what a year cycle will look like, and there's nothing suggesting it will have a seasonal behaviour.
I see you're not taking this seriously, but I just hope that is not going to be harmful for others. If everyone bends the rules for their own selfish reasons then some of us are sacrificing so that others can keep doing whatever they want. I'd say that's not right at all. I just don't understand that.

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I am taking it seriously but I’m not in agreement with a lot of the measures. In some respects the long term effects for certain demographics are huge and they will struggle to recover - lack of wages, reduced availability of fresh food etc.

I have elderly parents who statistically are at risk. I have a niece who is high risk as am I, I have a friend in hospital with respiratory (unrelated) problems, and my girlfriends son is partially handicapped because of swine flu.

Its highly likely that my memory of this virus will be bad.

The vast majority of the cases have emanated from traditional seasonal flu affected areas. Which suggests that summer will provide some relief - hence my point about hoping a vaccine is found before next winter or even quicker for the part of the world about to hit winter. I also feel that a huge proportion of people will contract this virus at some point either now or later. I really hope that for our loved ones is later so that there is at least some relief available in the way of medicines.

Heading out to the mountains or a mudflat to walk, run or exercise is not going to impact on others. And is actually considered a necessity for health sanity etc.

The key word is not impact on others and I fully agree with you that I hope that my actions are not responsible for any suffering of others. It is likely that we will all share some sadness before this is finished, not this year but in the coming years....

rosbifs said:

I am taking it seriously but I’m not in agreement with a lot of the measures. In some respects the long term effects for certain demographics are huge and they will struggle to recover - lack of wages, reduced availability of fresh food etc.

I have elderly parents who statistically are at risk. I have a niece who is high risk as am I, I have a friend in hospital with respiratory (unrelated) problems, and my girlfriends son is partially handicapped because of swine flu.

Its highly likely that my memory of this virus will be bad.

The vast majority of the cases have emanated from traditional seasonal flu affected areas. Which suggests that summer will provide some relief - hence my point about hoping a vaccine is found before next winter or even quicker for the part of the world about to hit winter. I also feel that a huge proportion of people will contract this virus at some point either now or later. I really hope that for our loved ones is later so that there is at least some relief available in the way of medicines.

Heading out to the mountains or a mudflat to walk, run or exercise is not going to impact on others. And is actually considered a necessity for health sanity etc.

The key word is not impact on others and I fully agree with you that I hope that my actions are not responsible for any suffering of others. It is likely that we will all share some sadness before this is finished, not this year but in the coming years....

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I agree with many of the points you raise above, and I share your worries about impact over the economy and elsewhere. Two months ago it was clear to me that the chances of a global recession were indeed high and here we are now. The thing is that not taking some of those measures would have a huge impact as well. There's no win-win solution here. Specialists are suggesting the best measures they can (I hope) and politicians are weighing in the economic and social impacts to reach a balanced range of solutions (again, I hope they are); among those balanced solutions I'm not including what BJ was suggesting to do in the UK until yesterday, that's just bonkers.

My point about not birdwatching was not saying there is any risk involved in someone going out to do that activity alone, it's the message it passes to others. Of course there's the risk you need help of some sort from someone in the process, as said above by others, unexpectedly increasing the initial seemingly low risk.
I fully agree there is a mental health issue we'll all have to deal with (as a society) when all of this ends (and that might not mean a total eradication of the disease...). But we're only a few weeks into this yet, I'd say it's too early for that (but not for first symptoms I guess). Every person has a different way of dealing with isolation, I'm fully aware of that. I'm not trying to sound patronizing at all (sorry if I do), I'm just worried that if we don't take the chance to "flatten the curve" right now (during these next few days, I'm talking of the Portuguese case only right now) then the situation will follow an unnecessary trajectory that will penalize us in a much harder way later.

On the subject of mental health, my therapist said yesterday that if it comes to it, mental health insurance coverage in the US will only cover face to face sessions. Not telephone, not Skype.

That may have to change.

Deb Burhinus said:

..... global shortage of toilet rolls on shop shelves because a few Aussies decided early on that the worse thing about a pandemic was not being able to clean your bum, ......

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Surely that is an attempt at humour ?
A "global" shortage ?
Does Australia have that much purchasing power ? Or ..... Is the world that susceptible to programming ?
:-O





Chosun :gh:

Some interesting news articles - apols they are mostly UK based.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51915302 (An interesting graph)

https://www.itv.com/news/2020-03-17...ed-in-the-uk-and-around-55-000-have-covid-19/ (probaby around 55,000 cases in UK (testing figures give 1950))

https://www.itv.com/news/2020-03-17/china-coronavirus-covid-19-mental-health/ (mental health issues in China)

Chosun Juan said:

Surely that is an attempt at humour ?

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I thought so :bounce:

Chosun Juan said:

Surely that is an attempt at humour ?
A "global" shortage ?
Does Australia have that much purchasing power ? Or ..... Is the world that susceptible to programming ?

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Yes, Locally & Nationally in various locations around the globe, No, Yes ?

Australia has to lead the world in some areas!

dantheman said:

Some interesting news articles - apols they are mostly UK based.

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That image of BJ in your first link Dan, says it all - I wonder how close they are to dropping the ball ?(if they haven’t already)

The impact of how the world is responding to this pandemic, let alone the disease itself, is going to cause untold mental health problems and longterm instability.

(Don’t forget to give yourself a break from all the news - there’s some excellent instagram posts coming online from bands and musicians who’ve had to cancel concerts - just listened to half an hour of Chris Martin playing in his living room https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WbTEXxcoiE0
and Keith Urban with Nicole Kidman dancing in the background https://pagesix.com/2020/03/17/keit...th-live-streamed-concert-from-their-basement/ brilliant stuff :t

dantheman said:

Haven't seen any modelling ....

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This article is a couple of weeks old now - it is interesting to compare the modelling, transmission rates to actual events now. It seems that fatality rates even vary by country within like age demographics - I haven't seen any research to explain that yet.

https://www.economist.com/briefing/...U_v62AJqgAuYcluGQ5GzmtQvt2j2UQ9d5aytWtilHvYLM






Chosun :gh:

Chosun Juan said:

This article is a couple of weeks old now - it is interesting to compare the modelling, transmission rates to actual events now. It seems that fatality rates even vary by country within like age demographics - I haven't seen any research to explain that yet.

https://www.economist.com/briefing/...U_v62AJqgAuYcluGQ5GzmtQvt2j2UQ9d5aytWtilHvYLM

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Interesting, Ta.

According to Xenospiza on another thread Germany has c5 times the number of intensive care beds per capita that the Netherlands has (if I read that correctly)

According to World-o-meter,
Germany has 9365 total cases, 26 deaths
Netherlands has 1705 total cases, 43 deaths.

If all else was equal, ie roughly similar stage of the cycle (and the health service was stretched in the Netherlands) ...

I caught a snippet of the news (accidently ! while flicking around, and saw an old Italian lady with the illness who had just been booted out of hospital because her symptoms were classified as too mild (the day after her husband unfortunately died of the illness in hospital). She was sitting down outside in the sun quite visibly distressed and gasping for breath, though she was surrounded by her 3 children all wearing masks.

Despite how upset and confused she was, I remember thinking good, at least you're going to live.

Interesting article:
"Coronavirus and the Sun: a Lesson from the 1918 Influenza Pandemic"
https://medium.com/@ra.hobday/coron...nN-te9cpqkvnGpgA06FBu1Y_aFFeZ0nQguwKjEYmD_pMk







Chosun :gh:

dantheman said:

The reality is that you are likely to not be able to go outside for several months now. If you (as a youngish person) did catch the coronavirus it would most likely not do you serious harm.

If the elderly could be highly protected as the utmost priority, that would make the most sense imo. If the systems we have in the western world collapse, consequences could be more severe down the line.


As viruses go, I don't know how the chance of it mutating increases - is it time, or number of infection cycles (ie individuals)?

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To what point do we have to fall, globally, before they have to say 'ok, back to normal but expect acceptable losses'?

Would we sacrifice 3 million people globally and 250,000 in the UK to keep the World going and not plunge it in to poverty and anarchy because from what I've see, this is where where headed.

andyadcock said:

To what point do we have to fall, globally, before they have to say 'ok, back to normal but expect acceptable losses'?

Would we sacrifice 3 million people globally and 250,000 in the UK to keep the World going and not plunge it in to poverty and anarchy because from what I've see, this is where where headed.

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You have to remember that the monetary system is a fictitious concept.

There is no reason that emergency funding could not be 'created' for everyone to cover a pause it normal activities (investment/debt obligations etc)

Maybe as people self isolate they'll contemplate the whole kit and kaboodle ......




Chosun :gh:

Chosun Juan said:

Surely that is an attempt at humour ?
A "global" shortage ?
Does Australia have that much purchasing power ? Or ..... Is the world that susceptible to programming ?
:-O





Chosun :gh:

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Answers to all your questions:

Yes*
No
No
Yes! (Those with Facebook or other social media, anyway 3)

John

* And an important part of resistance to humans finding out we do have top predators. They are very small but they follow classical prey choices: the old and the weak and the sick.

One of the allowed reasons for going out in France is
Physical exercise. Unlike Spain, where this is banned, trips outside the home to take exercise are still allowed. However there are some conditions - you have to go on your own and cannot play group sports. So going for a run alone is OK, going to play street football is not. If you have a dog, you are also allowed to walk it.
A walk with a pair of bins would presumably be counted as exercise.

dantheman said:

Interesting, Ta.

According to Xenospiza on another thread Germany has c5 times the number of intensive care beds per capita that the Netherlands has (if I read that correctly)

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Correct. Ireland and UK close to the Netherlands though.
The issue in Germany is more likely lack of nurses!

Steve Babbs said:

One of the allowed reasons for going out in France is
Physical exercise. Unlike Spain, where this is banned, trips outside the home to take exercise are still allowed. However there are some conditions - you have to go on your own and cannot play group sports. So going for a run alone is OK, going to play street football is not. If you have a dog, you are also allowed to walk it.
A walk with a pair of bins would presumably be counted as exercise.

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I think some people here are in a different World to me. I've just spent 40 minutes queuing for essentials and all you lot can waffle about is birding opportunities and dog walking, are you not affected yet?

I did find a freshly dead Magpie on the way back and pondered the historically attached omens but that didn't stop me from taking it's pristine, tail feathers which my wife will get arty with.

Was also offered my first elbow bump in lieu of a handshake today too.

andyadcock said:

I think some people here are in a different World to me. I've just spent 40 minutes queuing for essentials and all you lot can waffle about is birding opportunities and dog walking, are you not affected yet?

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It is Birdforum and it is a thread specifically about the threat to birding due to Coronavirus. If you want to waffle about something else, feel free to do so elsewhere.