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UK death rate from C-19

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Old Wednesday 29th April 2020, 18:45   #26
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That's a misconstrued version of the discussion. The idea that some were pushing was that we need to protect the elderly while everyone else goes around as usual and gets 'herd imunity'. I was one if the people saying that it's impossible. And now look how many elderly people are dead even as the virus is nowhere as rampant in the open world as many would have it, so I feel like my opinion is validated.
Whilst 'some', complained that the elderly were being 'locked up', any memory of that Jan?
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Old Friday 1st May 2020, 09:09   #27
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This looks worrying, https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?f...sHK8_dCMGwLLO4, given that our PM says we are past the peak for deaths from the virus.

Anyone know why the UK figure is so high compared to other European countries?
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Old Friday 1st May 2020, 10:25   #28
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This looks worrying, https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?f...sHK8_dCMGwLLO4, given that our PM says we are past the peak for deaths from the virus.

Anyone know why the UK figure is so high compared to other European countries?
No page there Pat?
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Old Friday 1st May 2020, 11:42   #29
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No page there Pat?
Okay Andy, will try an alternative.
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Old Friday 1st May 2020, 12:49   #30
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Good article in yesterdays Guardian as to why "league tables" are largely meaningless.

https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...ther-countries
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Old Friday 1st May 2020, 13:27   #31
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Good article in yesterdays Guardian as to why "league tables" are largely meaningless.

https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...ther-countries
I think most of us realised this already but the article starts off with a false statement.

'At prime minister’s questions on Wednesday, Keir Starmer said he had added up a total of 27,241 coronavirus deaths so far,'

The word 'related' should be inserted between coronavirus and deaths.

This whole situation is akin to comparing people birds lists, do you count 'heard only', do you include Ireland as the UK, which taxonomy do you apply etc, etc, unless all critera are the same, comparisons are meaningless.
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Old Friday 1st May 2020, 16:56   #32
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Keir Starmer said nothing about "related", underlined or otherwise. The quote is "but that makes a total to date of 27,241 recorded deaths from coronavirus".

Have a look here https://hansard.parliament.uk/Common...0-2393FF37109E
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Old Friday 1st May 2020, 17:16   #33
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An alarming 13.6% of those testing positive in the UK have died from COV-19.

An even higher rate than Italy at 13.4%, Holland at 11.7%, Spain at 10.2% and the USA despite 52K deaths, is only at 5.6% of those testing positive so what's happened in the UK to produce this high mortality rate?

These are my own calculations so apologies if anyone finds errors.
There is a desperate need for better information here, partly due to the poor quality of the available tests, partly due to the very varied testing criteria.
So there is no good data on what percentage of the population has been exposed, which makes the various derived numbers suspect.
The need is to test everyone in a representative area, not just people who are hospitalized or who work in a critical area. Even if this uses a good chunk of the limited testing resource, it would at least illuminate the nature of the problem.
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Old Friday 1st May 2020, 17:26   #34
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There is a desperate need for better information here, partly due to the poor quality of the available tests, partly due to the very varied testing criteria.
So there is no good data on what percentage of the population has been exposed, which makes the various derived numbers suspect.
The need is to test everyone in a representative area, not just people who are hospitalized or who work in a critical area. Even if this uses a good chunk of the limited testing resource, it would at least illuminate the nature of the problem.
I think the term 'suspect' is being generous, in most cases it's nothing more than guesswork, without wider testing, it can never be anything more.
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Old Friday 1st May 2020, 17:28   #35
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There is a desperate need for better information here, partly due to the poor quality of the available tests, partly due to the very varied testing criteria.
So there is no good data on what percentage of the population has been exposed, which makes the various derived numbers suspect.
The need is to test everyone in a representative area, not just people who are hospitalized or who work in a critical area. Even if this uses a good chunk of the limited testing resource, it would at least illuminate the nature of the problem.
I entirely agree that what we need is to know where we are now, and the current testing regime will never achieve that.

But it has already been shown that there isn't a single "representative area": inner cities differ from rural villages, market towns and for that matter each other, with London significantly worse than other large cities. The need is to identify a set of areas to test to obtain data on the already recognised different types of areas, to give an overall representative picture. And for the statistical modellers to indicate how many tests are needed in each area to give a reasonable level of validity to the data (without any politicians or their SPADs having input to this purely mathematical proposition).

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Old Friday 1st May 2020, 20:10   #36
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I entirely agree that what we need is to know where we are now, and the current testing regime will never achieve that.

But it has already been shown that there isn't a single "representative area": inner cities differ from rural villages, market towns and for that matter each other, with London significantly worse than other large cities. The need is to identify a set of areas to test to obtain data on the already recognised different types of areas, to give an overall representative picture. And for the statistical modellers to indicate how many tests are needed in each area to give a reasonable level of validity to the data (without any politicians or their SPADs having input to this purely mathematical proposition).

John
The challenge of finding a representative area is much exaggerated imho.
A baseline is needed, then refinements can be made.
London is a good place to start, there is good infrastructure and even people on the dole can be reliably included, they depend on the social network and are correspondingly documented.
Maybe add a second more rural locale, perhaps someplace in North Yorkshire, to get an idea of how well the virus is distributed.
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Old Saturday 2nd May 2020, 02:03   #37
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I seem to recall some on this forum saying 4 or 5 weeks ago that the priority was protecting the elderly (almost at all costs) and the idea being poo-poohed ...

Of course we're not the ones in power, but still.
Oh yes, right, poo... It's the "at all costs" part that's the problem. Still I'd think more could have been done, practically everywhere. But in any case, you can't justify lockdowns by the need to protect the elderly when they don't.

And no we're not in power, but we do elect those who are and might at least expect to have some attempt made to explain a strategy to us, and some interest shown in our reactions to it.

Under the circumstances I'm not sure that "Leadership" is quite the right word for that, but something has certainly been missing.

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Nor am I sure how long such a system could be sustained without staff being so fatigued, mentally and physically, that they could not do their job.
Yes, ultimately I suppose this is the problem. In fact nothing really works or can be sustained long enough, it's just one bad idea after another. If we get that far, just wait until they try testing and contact tracing via smartphones, and see how many are willing to download that, or to isolate because Google says they may have been near someone for a few seconds. All this reminds me very much of the monkey who can't get his hand out of the cookie ("safety") jar.

This is why the Swedes look pretty clever to me.

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Old Saturday 2nd May 2020, 06:31   #38
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London is a good place to start, even people on the dole can be reliably included, they depend on the social network and are correspondingly documented.
What do you mean by that? I'm beginning to think your understanding of the UK may be a bit limited. We have very little in the way of an off-grid underclass apart from any illegal immigrants that haven't been caught yet.

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Old Saturday 2nd May 2020, 08:38   #39
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What do you mean by that? I'm beginning to think your understanding of the UK may be a bit limited. We have very little in the way of an off-grid underclass apart from any illegal immigrants that haven't been caught yet.

John
Most of them then, probably all of them taking account of the 'catch and release' scheme they operate,......
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Old Saturday 2nd May 2020, 15:47   #40
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What do you mean by that? I'm beginning to think your understanding of the UK may be a bit limited. We have very little in the way of an off-grid underclass apart from any illegal immigrants that haven't been caught yet.

John
I'll freely concede that my understanding of the UK is very limited.
My understanding was that even the poorest get a measure of social services, so that getting everyone to give test specimens, which can apparently be spit, should be relatively straightforward. Is this a delusion created by me seeing London from a NYC perspective?
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Old Saturday 2nd May 2020, 16:58   #41
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I'll freely concede that my understanding of the UK is very limited.
My understanding was that even the poorest get a measure of social services, so that getting everyone to give test specimens, which can apparently be spit, should be relatively straightforward. Is this a delusion created by me seeing London from a NYC perspective?
What I don't understand about your understanding is the statement that "people on the dole can be reliably included, they depend on the social network and are correspondingly documented".

It's very difficult not to be documented. If you are British you get a National Insurance Number when leaving school (too long ago for me to remember the details). This assists HMRC in tracking your National Insurance contributions, tax etc for the rest of your life. But you are also documented for council tax by the local authority. Your driving license and car ownership details (and insurance) are held by the DVLA. Up till now (and the reason they feel able to stop is the amount of other documentation that digitisation gives them) we've been censused every ten years. Any documentation related to benefits is over and above that (but reported through the same system).

Pretty much everybody everywhere in Britain is documented. London is not in that way exceptional.

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Old Saturday 2nd May 2020, 18:01   #42
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It's very difficult not to be documented. If you are British you get a National Insurance Number when leaving school (too long ago for me to remember the details). This assists HMRC in tracking your National Insurance contributions, tax etc for the rest of your life. But you are also documented for council tax by the local authority. Your driving license and car ownership details (and insurance) are held by the DVLA. Up till now (and the reason they feel able to stop is the amount of other documentation that digitisation gives them) we've been censused every ten years. Any documentation related to benefits is over and above that (but reported through the same system).

Pretty much everybody everywhere in Britain is documented. London is not in that way exceptional.

John
John, John, John, back of the class........
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Old Saturday 2nd May 2020, 18:41   #43
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John, John, John, back of the class........
Yeah, yeah... a definite slip. Normally I would write licence. I was rushing to go and get fish and chips - actually drive my car, be outside, see people other than the usual....

Careless.

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Old Saturday 2nd May 2020, 22:09   #44
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What I don't understand about your understanding is the statement that "people on the dole can be reliably included, they depend on the social network and are correspondingly documented".

It's very difficult not to be documented. If you are British you get a National Insurance Number when leaving school (too long ago for me to remember the details). This assists HMRC in tracking your National Insurance contributions, tax etc for the rest of your life. But you are also documented for council tax by the local authority. Your driving license and car ownership details (and insurance) are held by the DVLA. Up till now (and the reason they feel able to stop is the amount of other documentation that digitisation gives them) we've been censused every ten years. Any documentation related to benefits is over and above that (but reported through the same system).

Pretty much everybody everywhere in Britain is documented. London is not in that way exceptional.

John
Thank you for the extra background, it is not as tightly organized here in the US, although the various administrators would like to make it so.
I was merely thinking of London as a reasonably representative cross section of the country, with both absurd wealth as well as egregious poverty, but well enough administered that one could reliably test everyone. I mentioned the dole because here in the US, the Social Security lifeline is often the most reliable link and I assumed the same would be true in England.
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Old Saturday 23rd May 2020, 23:17   #45
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While there is no one measurement that gives a really clear idea of the progress of the disease within a locality, let alone between localities,
it’s useful to make an initial distinction between the Case Fatality Rate and the Mortality Rate, see: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Case_fatality_rate

The number of deaths per number of tests (diagnoses), as discussed in this thread is a CFR. And the number of deaths in a population is the MR

Increasingly I’m of the view that the latter is a better way of looking at things, especially when attempting the compare different jurisdictions,
while taking into account what's known about the differing circumstances

For a good source of mortality rates, expressed as deaths per million of total population, updated daily, see: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Scroll down to the comprehensive table and click on the 3rd column from the right a couple of times to sort from highest to lowest

If you then select for Europe (at the top left of the table) the comparative figures give a lot of food for thought


John
Many thanks for these links, John. I'm finding them very useful.

For those interested, the World Coronavirus Table can easily be highlighted and pasted directly into Excel or LibreOffice spreadsheet software. Since the world table is updated on an ongoing basis, temporal comparisons can be made by pasting in data sheets periodically.

I also much agree with you that the case fatality rate explanation is worth studying, along with the video on the right side of the screen.


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Old Sunday 24th May 2020, 08:41   #46
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Many thanks for these links, John. I'm finding them very useful.

For those interested, the World Coronavirus Table can easily be highlighted and pasted directly into Excel or LibreOffice spreadsheet software. Since the world table is updated on an ongoing basis, temporal comparisons can be made by pasting in data sheets periodically.

I also much agree with you that the case fatality rate explanation is worth studying, along with the video on the right side of the screen.


Ed
Ed, until the whole thing is done and dusted I can't really see how the CFR is going to provide much reliable data. For one, there are the unaccounted for cases, and secondly there is the variable time delay between infection confirmation and death.

The IFR would seem more useful, though how would these extra case numbers be meaningfully calculated ?

Any increase in All Cause Mortality would seem a more accurate measure than either.

If we take the usual UK death rate (0.9382% in 2018) over the population of 67,849,102 then we could expect approximately 636,500 deaths for the year. I'm not sure of the seasonal distribution, but let's just take a straight proportion from the first week of C-19 deaths up until now (~10 weeks) that would be ~122,500 deaths.

We would just need to compare the actual All Cause deaths (and any increase over expected) over this period to the C-19 death total (36,675 so far) as an initial check. It would be useful to map it week by week and compare it to the C-19 cases /deaths. I think it would be very telling to see what proportion of C19 recorded deaths over a period, would have been part of the normal mortality toll anyway.






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Old Sunday 24th May 2020, 10:26   #47
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Ed, until the whole thing is done and dusted I can't really see how the CFR is going to provide much reliable data. For one, there are the unaccounted for cases, and secondly there is the variable time delay between infection confirmation and death.

The IFR would seem more useful, though how would these extra case numbers be meaningfully calculated ?

Any increase in All Cause Mortality would seem a more accurate measure than either.

If we take the usual UK death rate (0.9382% in 2018) over the population of 67,849,102 then we could expect approximately 636,500 deaths for the year. I'm not sure of the seasonal distribution, but let's just take a straight proportion from the first week of C-19 deaths up until now (~10 weeks) that would be ~122,500 deaths.

We would just need to compare the actual All Cause deaths (and any increase over expexred) over this period to the C-19 death total (36,675 so far) as an initial check. It would be useful to map it week by week and compare it to the C-19 cases /deaths. I think it would be very telling to see what proportion of C19 recorded deaths over a period, would have been part of the normal mortality toll anyway.


Chosun
It was very much higher than it normally would be according to some stuff I read but then this appeared more recently.

https://www.theguardian.com/society/...us-deaths-fall

It will be a long time before real anlysis can be done, using fare more extensive and complete data sets.

This is from the ONS, Office for National Statistics, enjoy.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulat...ndwales/latest
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Old Sunday 24th May 2020, 22:17   #48
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Ed, until the whole thing is done and dusted I can't really see how the CFR is going to provide much reliable data. For one, there are the unaccounted for cases, and secondly there is the variable time delay between infection confirmation and death.

The IFR would seem more useful, though how would these extra case numbers be meaningfully calculated ?

Any increase in All Cause Mortality would seem a more accurate measure than either.

If we take the usual UK death rate (0.9382% in 2018) over the population of 67,849,102 then we could expect approximately 636,500 deaths for the year. I'm not sure of the seasonal distribution, but let's just take a straight proportion from the first week of C-19 deaths up until now (~10 weeks) that would be ~122,500 deaths.

We would just need to compare the actual All Cause deaths (and any increase over expected) over this period to the C-19 death total (36,675 so far) as an initial check. It would be useful to map it week by week and compare it to the C-19 cases /deaths. I think it would be very telling to see what proportion of C19 recorded deaths over a period, would have been part of the normal mortality toll anyway.


Chosun
Chosun,

Measures to flatten the growth curve of C-19 also affect other causes of death, notably highway fatalities and the spread of normal endemic diseases, e.g., the common cold or seasonal flu. So, counterintuitively, it's possible that total deaths decrease from historically expected levels. Whatever the case, it's not simply an additive relationship.

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Old Yesterday, 02:42   #49
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Chosun,

Measures to flatten the growth curve of C-19 also affect other causes of death, notably highway fatalities and the spread of normal endemic diseases, e.g., the common cold or seasonal flu. So, counterintuitively, it's possible that total deaths decrease from historically expected levels. Whatever the case, it's not simply an additive relationship.

Ed
Ed,

Yes ! That is an added complication.
I recall reading/hearing (could have been a frontline doctor interview) that expected seasonal flu rates were down, and in the same report MVA deaths too.

Even the primary source of data - death certificates - might be subject to a degree of distortion in regard to dying with C-19 and dying from C-19 both being recorded as a C-19 death in an unknown number of instances. (My medico's hospital colleagues confirmed as much first hand). That's what I was thinking more in terms of detecting - though that's clouded by lower AC deaths due to strategies to prevent the spread of COVID-19, as you say. I personally, am enjoying the greater access to close (or even any) parking spots ! :)






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Old Yesterday, 06:37   #50
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Info from UK intensive care unit doctors points to big variations in how Covid-19 presents in very acute cases with multiple organ failure (not just lungs) and horribly complex blood clotting causing all manner of complications not least of which is the sheer practical problem of clotting up of dialysis machines if the right level of blood thinners isn't administered. And the variation from patient to patient is a huge challenge. Over 40 research projects are looking into this in the UK. Damage is being done to kidneys, heart, liver and brain, in the most acute cases as well as the lungs. That list should have the words and/or between each organ because so far these effects aren't predictable.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/52760992

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