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COVID: lies, damn lies, and statistics

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Old Sunday 24th May 2020, 00:00   #351
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But...but...Orange man bad!!

'..Amy Klobuchar Admits Miracle Drug Hydroxychloroquine Saved Her Husband’s Life'
(VIDEO)

https://conservativechoicecampaign.c...ds-life-video/


*Poof* goes Klob's VP chances....
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Old Sunday 24th May 2020, 07:21   #352
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It's becoming clearer as we learn more, that Covid has wider impact on the body than just the lungs.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/52760992
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Old Sunday 24th May 2020, 11:50   #353
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Originally Posted by litebeam View Post
Jan, that's the way Fugs rolls. Consider that a 'feces throwing ape' ushered in a historic economy, record employment, ...record minority jobs and home ownership. These things are ignored by design.
What does it say that the aforementioned 'ape' can bring forth the economic prosperity he has, when others chiefly Obama, could do none of the above?

It's the difference between a true capitalistic mentality (for a good but admittedly dry read I recommend This Anti-Capitalistic Mentality by Ludwig Von Mises) as opposed to a regulation-stifling Gov't-centric economy.

Overall though, the endless whining here over Trump has been tiresome. Schadenfreude.
I do not give a F**K about politics.
Democracy is, IMHO, the best way to keep a society civil and politicians are an "evil" that comes with it, which we have to elect and ACCEPT until the next election where the former loosing side can try to get a better outcome.
Some do better compared to others. Due to better economic circumstances or being better leaders. The majority, systemwise or by voters, brought us the government we've voted for. That's democracy. In such a democracy you can get away with absurd insulting namecalling but that does not mean others can't give their meaning also.
Ruffled feathers is a place where the gloves may come off but even there, IMHO, are limits to the "contribution".

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Old Sunday 24th May 2020, 12:40   #354
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Some remarks accumulated while I was out birding:

- several people linked "off-guardian" in this thread. Do you guys not understand that it's paid russian propaganda? That you are helping a foreign power to wage war on your countries in exchange for ... being more smug about your views? Shame on you.

- UK is doing quarantine for incomers. Are they afraid that the influx of healthy people would dilute the petri dish or what?

- The main Czech epidemiologist gave an interview where he talks about the importance of masks, also from the historic perspective, mentioning the tradition going back to medieval plague doctors. I am really crossing fingers that this doesn't mean that the country is now run based on 4chan memes.
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Old Sunday 24th May 2020, 13:58   #355
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Originally Posted by opisska View Post
Some remarks accumulated while I was out birding:

- several people linked "off-guardian" in this thread. Do you guys not understand that it's paid russian propaganda? That you are helping a foreign power to wage war on your countries in exchange for ... being more smug about your views? Shame on you.

- UK is doing quarantine for incomers. Are they afraid that the influx of healthy people would dilute the petri dish or what?

- The main Czech epidemiologist gave an interview where he talks about the importance of masks, also from the historic perspective, mentioning the tradition going back to medieval plague doctors. I am really crossing fingers that this doesn't mean that the country is now run based on 4chan memes.
That's one of the stupidest things you've said.
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Old Sunday 24th May 2020, 14:09   #356
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That's one of the stupidest things you've said.
Why don't you, instead of insulting me, rather explain the exact purpose of limiting movement of people into the most affected country in sight? I am all for quarantining everyone coming from the UK to anywhere else in Europe but Sweden, but the other way around, you are quarantining people that are less likely to have the virus than all the millions people running around the country.
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Old Sunday 24th May 2020, 14:51   #357
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Originally Posted by opisska View Post
Why don't you, instead of insulting me, rather explain the exact purpose of limiting movement of people into the most affected country in sight? I am all for quarantining everyone coming from the UK to anywhere else in Europe but Sweden, but the other way around, you are quarantining people that are less likely to have the virus than all the millions people running around the country.
We should have been stricter at the very start but now that we are seeing improvements, why would we take a chance on reintroducing another outbreak?

How do we know where people have been apart from the fact that they arrived from one particular country? Someone could be arriving from Germany but a week before that, they may have been in Brazil or the US.

Don't forget that this rule also applies to Brits who are coming home, including anyone who goes on holiday and then comes home which is unlikely as UK citizens are already being barred from entry to various countries who are reopening their tourism industry.

Telling someone they said something stupid is not an insult, I would call YOU, stupid, if I wanted to insult you and by the way, the only people 'running around the country' are a few twitchers........
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Old Sunday 24th May 2020, 15:46   #358
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This is the exact mentality that causes so much pain around Europe right now, for everyone who has built their life around the expectation that the free movement in the EU is a right of all of its citizens. Well, yes, the UK has left, but you are still in a transitory period. Especially the part of "how do we know where they have been" is, to use your own parlance, stupid. Can you name some EU countries besides Sweden that would allow such person an unrestricted and unquarantined entry? Why do you have to check them once again on your borders? Yes, many other countries do it, that doesn't make it less stupid - the stupidity level is only elevated by UK being among the hardest hit and still having more than 10 times new cases per capita than many other EU countries.

This is nothing but "foreign things bad, border protect us" thinking.
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Old Sunday 24th May 2020, 16:42   #359
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I'm usually hesitant but he should now do the right and honourable thing and fall upon his own sword, letting BJ off the hook.
Doing the honourable thing is not part of his repertoire.

BTW, BJ falling upon his own sword wouldn't be such a bad thing either.

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Old Sunday 24th May 2020, 17:08   #360
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Originally Posted by opisska View Post
This is the exact mentality that causes so much pain around Europe right now, for everyone who has built their life around the expectation that the free movement in the EU is a right of all of its citizens. Well, yes, the UK has left, but you are still in a transitory period. Especially the part of "how do we know where they have been" is, to use your own parlance, stupid. Can you name some EU countries besides Sweden that would allow such person an unrestricted and unquarantined entry? Why do you have to check them once again on your borders? Yes, many other countries do it, that doesn't make it less stupid - the stupidity level is only elevated by UK being among the hardest hit and still having more than 10 times new cases per capita than many other EU countries.

This is nothing but "foreign things bad, border protect us" thinking.
That's actually quite amusing as we have been banned from travel to various places in the EU........................
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Old Sunday 24th May 2020, 20:13   #361
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This thread is heated!

Hope yall are safe and staying happy through these dark and crazy times!
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Old Sunday 24th May 2020, 20:45   #362
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Originally Posted by andyadcock View Post
It's becoming clearer as we learn more, that Covid has wider impact on the body than just the lungs.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/52760992
Wholly consistent with a recent video by an experienced Bellevue Hospital critical care physician, to the effect that the wrong disease is being treated and many people are being badly harmed by ventilators. YouTube deleted the video without explanation.

Frankly, this is the most frightening thing I've ever read about Covid-19.

Ed
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Old Sunday 24th May 2020, 21:14   #363
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Originally Posted by andyadcock View Post
We should have been stricter at the very start but now that we are seeing improvements, why would we take a chance on reintroducing another outbreak?

How do we know where people have been apart from the fact that they arrived from one particular country? Someone could be arriving from Germany but a week before that, they may have been in Brazil or the US.

Don't forget that this rule also applies to Brits who are coming home, including anyone who goes on holiday and then comes home which is unlikely as UK citizens are already being barred from entry to various countries who are reopening their tourism industry.

Telling someone they said something stupid is not an insult, I would call YOU, stupid, if I wanted to insult you and by the way, the only people 'running around the country' are a few senior Conservatives........
Fixed that for you

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Old Monday 25th May 2020, 00:18   #364
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Originally Posted by opisska View Post
Some remarks accumulated while I was out birding:
Quote:
- several people linked "off-guardian" in this thread. Do you guys not understand that it's paid russian propaganda? That you are helping a foreign power to wage war on your countries in exchange for ... being more smug about your views? Shame on you.
- UK is doing quarantine for incomers. Are they afraid that the influx of healthy people would dilute the petri dish or what?

- The main Czech epidemiologist gave an interview where he talks about the importance of masks, also from the historic perspective, mentioning the tradition going back to medieval plague doctors. I am really crossing fingers that this doesn't mean that the country is now run based on 4chan memes.
I've always suspected that I was several people, good to have this confirmed. I'm definitely going to have a word with myselfs.

Russian propaganda...really ? I give up !
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Old Monday 25th May 2020, 00:26   #365
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Off-Guardian: https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/offguardian/

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Analysis / Bias

In review, OffGuardian reports news with a pro-Russian bias. Many articles are very critical of the Ukraine, such as this Ukraine admitted to interfering in the 2016 US election on Clinton’s side. This story does not offer hyperlinked sourcing, but rather translations of documents. OffGuardian also frequently promotes conspiracy theories regarding GMO’s such as this: Post-Brexit Farming, Glyphosate and GMOs. Although this story utilizes some credible sources, it also cites Mercola, which is a website that promotes quackery level pseudoscience. They also promote 9/11 conspiracies such as this The Fakest Fake News: The U.S. Government’s 9/11 Conspiracy Theory. They frequently cover False Flags and the US Deep State conspiracy as well anti-vaccination propaganda.

In an article by Ukrainian fact checker’s, Stop Fake, they write about the OffGuardian as “Russian trolls exiled from Guardian find home for their hate.” Politically, there is a wide range of opinions expressed, with many falling on the pro-socialist side, such as this: Anti-Capitalism is NOT Anti-Semitism.

Overall, we rate OffGuardian a Strong Conspiracy and Moderate Pseudoscience website that also promotes Russian propaganda. (D. Van Zandt 5/29/2019)
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Old Monday 25th May 2020, 02:21   #366
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Originally Posted by elkcub View Post
Wholly consistent with a recent video by an experienced Bellevue Hospital critical care physician, to the effect that the wrong disease is being treated and many people are being badly harmed by ventilators. YouTube deleted the video without explanation.

Frankly, this is the most frightening thing I've ever read about Covid-19.

Ed
Ed,

I don't think it's anything to be frightened by - it is just describing a death process - cessation of efficient circulation leading to multiple organs shutting down. It would be applicable to many death processes. Note that no numbers are given for those succumbing to a 'cytokine storm' etc - was is 1 ? 10 ? 1% 10% ? ..... ?????

An honest admission of lack of a treatment protocol is a refreshing positive in my view. This flying blind also ties in with one of the risk factors for dying on a ventilator - which is time on a ventilator !
It seems there was a fair amount of ridicule earlier on at the suggestion to avoid hospitals if possible .....

Also, no mention is made of the number of people who were 'scared to death' .....






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Old Monday 25th May 2020, 02:26   #367
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Old Monday 25th May 2020, 02:49   #368
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Exclamation

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Originally Posted by RafaelMatias View Post
Off-Guardian: https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/offguardian/
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"OffGuardian also frequently promotes conspiracy theories regarding GMO’s such as ..... Glyphosate ....."
Pretty sure we can count at least that one as legit according to the court cases





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Old Monday 25th May 2020, 03:24   #369
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With regard to climate-change deniers being "stupid, craven, or both". Stupid, well, yeah, a case could be made, but craven??
This time you're right, the wrong word popped up. I think I meant to say "venal", which still isn't quite right... self-serving amoral deception.

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Developed is one thing, successful another. All sorts of problems are possible, and it may not be as effective as hoped. Generally the first vaccine to be developed seldom turns out to be the best, so it will be a question of who is most desperate to try it. One problem not mentioned here (we can wonder why) is that the Moderna vaccine uses another common and harmless virus as a vector, which many already have antibodies to itself.
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Old Monday 25th May 2020, 03:26   #370
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It's becoming clearer as we learn more, that Covid has wider impact on the body than just the lungs.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/52760992
Embedded here is yet another graph showing lockdown having zero effect on the progress of the epidemic.

I've read elsewhere also that doctors have become disenchanted with the use of ventilators, which COVID patients end up on for a frighteningly long time. This article curiously states "This process has saved many seriously ill Covid-19 patients", but in fact most do not survive. Simple supplemental oxygen seems to do at least as well.
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Old Monday 25th May 2020, 03:30   #371
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Are you finally paying attention to the Brazil case? Last time I mentioned it to you as the best example of a place where social distancing and other basic measures was not carried out (because people just couldn't or because they followed the "instructions" of the President, a Science denier) you said you didn't know about it. It's been almost a month now. I hope now this case became well visible to you.
If you wanted an example of a place where they did not follow the "science" as you say, i.e. the instructions from the health authorities (even with its many flaws, no doubt) and where everything went very, very wrong you have it there (forget about Sweden, that's peanuts). And it's only starting there, I'm afraid to say. It's very worrying.
We have a simple problem of logic here. I've been arguing that given what we know to date, social distancing is sufficient, and further lockdown measures are not even known to be effective, merely based on panic at wildly inflated "scientific" predictions of casualties. It is therefore irrelevant to object by citing outcomes in countries that fail even to perform social distancing.

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Old Monday 25th May 2020, 05:17   #372
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Developed is one thing, successful another. All sorts of problems are possible, and it may not be as effective as hoped. Generally the first vaccine to be developed seldom turns out to be the best, so it will be a question of who is most desperate to try it. One problem not mentioned here (we can wonder why) is that the Moderna vaccine uses another common and harmless virus as a vector, which many already have antibodies to itself.
The Astra Zeneca boss was interviewed on tv here yesterday and is also saying that they will be manufacturing and distributing a vaccine by September.

He also said that they have numerous manufacturing plants across the World, (UK, Europe, Americas and I think China) and that it will be fairly distributed i.e NOT America first! He also stated that they are doing it on a not profit basis and that the drug would cost £1-2 so that anyone who needs it can afford it.
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Old Monday 25th May 2020, 10:29   #373
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For those who still believe lockdowns have no effect (and the earth is flat):

https://science.sciencemag.org/conte...cience.abb9789

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Old Monday 25th May 2020, 11:37   #374
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For those who still believe lockdowns have no effect (and the earth is flat):

https://science.sciencemag.org/conte...cience.abb9789

Hermann
Is there really anyone believing that beyond that one guy who keeps posting badly interpreted graphs? A disease that spreads from person to person is stopped when people are prohibited from meeting each other, color me surprised!

We should really not take the bait of "lockdowns don't work" and focus on the actual questions:

1. what level is needed and at what point are the returns from stricter measures diminishing?
2. do the lockdowns lead to a sustainable solution or do they just delay?

The article doesn't actually answer 1. - not to the authors' fault, it's simply due to the fact that the important measures were enacted at once so you can't really discriminate what was the effect of what - yes, they show that just closing large events and schools isn't enough, but that's somewhat expected. But then when closing of various things happens at once, you can't disentangle it - you could compare different countries, but there is so much unknowns... And no. 2 simply can't be answered this year.

Also, let me just say that reading a paper that says "we use Bayesian inference" is funny on a significant amount of levels (for reasons I am not willing to venture into - but it's not a criticism of their results).
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Old Monday 25th May 2020, 19:27   #375
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Sweden: https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...epidemiologist

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For two days last week Sweden had the highest per capita death rate in the world on a seven-day rolling average
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Per capita death rates in Denmark, Finland and Norway, which all put in place far-reaching lockdowns, are now, respectively, four, seven and nine times lower than that of Sweden.
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