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COVID: lies, damn lies, and statistics

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Old Monday 4th May 2020, 16:53   #51
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The Swedish experience suggests that social distancing and face masks achieve pretty much the same result, without the huge social impact of a lockdown.
Nope. Highest death rate in all the Scandinavian countries, still rising. It was an experiment that failed miserably.

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Old Monday 4th May 2020, 17:18   #52
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Nope. Highest death rate in all the Scandinavian countries, still rising. It was an experiment that failed miserably.

Hermann
No argument that the CoViD toll in Sweden is much higher than in Norway (or Finland or Denmark), even on a per capita basis
That does not offset the social and economic disaster that the lockdown creates, imho.
The social and economic toll of the lockdown in not measured or evaluated, other than in the huge debt incurred as governments attempt to provide minimal income to the masses made unproductive by this enforced idleness.
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Old Monday 4th May 2020, 17:26   #53
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Old Monday 4th May 2020, 17:27   #54
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The Swedish experience suggests that social distancing and face masks achieve pretty much the same result, without the huge social impact of a lockdown.
If you want to compare apples to apples, or if you want to have a 'control group' of sorts, then it makes sense to compare Sweden to Norway, its neighbor with similar demographics (low population density, relatively healthy populations, good health care systems, all of which combine to soften the blow of the epidemic). There have been 2,769 deaths in Sweden versus 214 in Norway. Sweden's population is nearly twice that of Norway, but that still means that on a per-capita basis Sweden's death rate from Covid is about 6 times that of Norway.

There's necessarily a trade-off here. You can enact lockdown measures until you can put in place a test and trace system, which has very high economic costs but greatly reduces loss of life. Or you can adopt a relaxed approach to achieve herd immunity, perhaps 'saving' the economy in the short-term, but at an extremely high cost in terms of loss of life (here in Italy, deaths would be in the hundreds of thousands without lockdown, in the U.S. they would be several million).

We can have a legitimate argument over which is the lesser of the two evils. What you *can't* do, because it's not based on reality, is pretend there's a third way in which you don't adopt lockdown measures, and yet miraculously you avoid massive loss of life.
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Old Monday 4th May 2020, 17:34   #55
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Old Monday 4th May 2020, 17:47   #56
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If you want to compare apples to apples, or if you want to have a 'control group' of sorts, then it makes sense to compare Sweden to Norway, its neighbor with similar demographics (low population density, relatively healthy populations, good health care systems, all of which combine to soften the blow of the epidemic). There have been 2,769 deaths in Sweden versus 214 in Norway. Sweden's population is nearly twice that of Norway, but that still means that on a per-capita basis Sweden's death rate from Covid is about 6 times that of Norway.

There's necessarily a trade-off here. You can enact lockdown measures until you can put in place a test and trace system, which has very high economic costs but greatly reduces loss of life. Or you can adopt a relaxed approach to achieve herd immunity, perhaps 'saving' the economy in the short-term, but at an extremely high cost in terms of loss of life (here in Italy, deaths would be in the hundreds of thousands without lockdown, in the U.S. they would be several million).

We can have a legitimate argument over which is the lesser of the two evils. What you *can't* do, because it's not based on reality, is pretend there's a third way in which you don't adopt lockdown measures, and yet miraculously you avoid massive loss of life.
Sweden avoided a lockdown and did not have a massive loss of life, so I think the utility of lockdowns, with the corresponding high social costs, needs to be severely scrutinized.
Here in the US, where the social network is pretty limited and where there are many undocumented immigrants that work outside the regular system, the lockdown has been brutally painful. Those who suffer most are those whose voices are the least heard, as their modest livelihoods disappear.

I'd believe more in lockdowns if the evidence were stronger and if the people instituting them shared in the pain they inflict. At a minimum, the salaries of the legislatures that approve lockdowns should be reduced to unemployment levels of compensation, to bring home to them the consequences of their decisions.
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Old Monday 4th May 2020, 18:19   #57
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Sweden avoided a lockdown and did not have a massive loss of life, so I think the utility of lockdowns, with the corresponding high social costs, needs to be severely scrutinized.
Here in the US, where the social network is pretty limited and where there are many undocumented immigrants that work outside the regular system, the lockdown has been brutally painful. Those who suffer most are those whose voices are the least heard, as their modest livelihoods disappear.

I'd believe more in lockdowns if the evidence were stronger and if the people instituting them shared in the pain they inflict. At a minimum, the salaries of the legislatures that approve lockdowns should be reduced to unemployment levels of compensation, to bring home to them the consequences of their decisions.
Totally agree,
there was a top union official on tv here today who was spouting about not letting people back to work until certain 'social distancing' measures are implemented, I'll bet he's still being paid.
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Old Monday 4th May 2020, 18:19   #58
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Birds of a feather with respect to your maunderings, certainly, part of a flock of such here.

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Come come now - your bromance runs much deeper than that:-
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Emotional quotient - likewise - identical ! equally socially adept ...
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Old Monday 4th May 2020, 18:41   #59
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.... I think the utility of lockdowns, with the corresponding high social costs, needs to be severely scrutinized.

Here in the US, where the social network is pretty limited and where there are many undocumented immigrants that work outside the regular system, the lockdown has been brutally painful. Those who suffer most are those whose voices are the least heard, as their modest livelihoods disappear.

I'd believe more in lockdowns if the evidence were stronger and if the people instituting them shared in the pain they inflict. At a minimum, the salaries of the legislatures that approve lockdowns should be reduced to unemployment levels of compensation, to bring home to them the consequences of their decisions.
It's a similar story in this country, where a highly casualized workforce has fallen through the safety nets rolled out. At least very basic healthcare is not tied to employment, but it's a small mercy. The 'gig' economy, apprentices, contract workers, travel industry employees, those in hospitality/ food trade, etc, have had their livelihoods decimated, as have the many small business owners.

Worse than that, not only has the Government shut Parliament down without oversight, but they have even outsourced a large part of Cabinet function to the privately appointed NCCC. So while nurses and health workers front up daily to high risk situations (sometimes without adequate PPE or rest) , while even school children run the gauntlet of close contact - our precious politicians are isolated from their jobs and on full pay !

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.the...id-19-response

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Old Monday 4th May 2020, 18:47   #60
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Come come now - your bromance runs much deeper than that:-
Intellect - veritably siamesed - impossible to tell you apart ....
Emotional quotient - likewise - identical ! equally socially adept ...
Political persuasions - in lockstep - a constituency of two !
Interests - exactly in tune - why you could even write each others posts ...

I must say, I'm ever so glad you've finally found someone your equal :)

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Old Monday 4th May 2020, 19:01   #61
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The Swedish experience suggests that social distancing and face masks achieve pretty much the same result, without the huge social impact of a lockdown.
Absent any available treatment, the stated purpose of these rules was to 'flatten the curve', to avoid overwhelming the hospitals. Social distancing and prohibitions on mass gatherings achieved that in Sweden and elsewhere. The lockdown was clearly inspired by the desperate efforts made by China to control the outbreak, without consideration that these draconian measures, which do great harm socially as well as economically, may be an ill advised
and excessive response elsewhere.
As said above and elsewhere in this and other multiple covid threads (would you like to start yet another one? please, by all means...), the Swedish experience was indeed an experiment.
It was an absolutely reckless experiment on humans, totally beyond ethical limits, in my opinion because of the following 3 factors:

1) the virus is a new virus, almost no knowledge about its consequences over human health were known by the time the decision of doing nothing was taken; we're still far from knowing all the consequences it has, but now we're starting to understand it affects the whole body (with blood clotting being the very first symptom, as I wrote somewhere else); on some people these effects do not reach the threshold of being noticeable, on others it means death: it's a lottery.

2) there was no specific medication for this disease (paracetamol was all that was there), as there still isn't (remdesivir not an example, it reduces slightly the time one needs to spend at a hospital, it's nice and welcomed, but doesn't apply here); so, no relief could be offered (by the State...) to infected patients;

3) there was no knowledge at all if there would be any heard immunity being acquired by the population; we still don't know this for sure at all, even less 2 months ago (it was just assumed, based on previous knowledge for other viruses); this could render the whole sinister experiment useless;

So, the Swedish government decided to take its whole population down an unknown road; it's really experimenting on humans on a massive scale. The health minister was asked why did they fail to protect the nursing homes. He replied they need to investigate what went wrong. Nice!

So I should add:
4) no preventive specific measures were taken to protect the most vulnerable.

The difference in death toll is quite staggering when compared with that of neighboring countries or even with Portugal (the same population). When I raised the case of Brazil the other day, and the mass mortality they're having (4 times average values, with a massive number of graves being dug) Tenex failed to connect the dots (as he did with all the rest I said, perhaps intentionally, or it was just too hard for him). The formula used in many parts of Brazil was that used in Sweden and it failed miserably! Why is Brazil relevant here? Because it has a population of about 210 million people, and if you like experiments on humans there you go. It doesn't work the same way on every place you use this "solution".

As a biologist and ecologist, with actually some work done in the epidemiology camp (I might actually be the only one in this thread, I'd say most likely) I have ethical limits that I cherish and look forward to go by. I don't think something like this would be allowed to be done on this scale on seabirds (the animals I used to work with). It seems to me I have more respect for my study subjects than some have for other people including their fellow citizens.

Those that would like to see it applied to the US certainly know that this disease affects (visibly, and with death) disproportionately not only elderly people (whom are part of the society as well!! and very valuable elements they are!) but also social minorities (in the US particularly afro-americans, "latinos" and Native Americans, the Navajo being a most cited example). So, they either don't care that others less fortunate might suffer because of them or they don't fully understand what this contagious disease is. A public demonstrator in the US was claiming the other day "it's my body". No, it's a public health serious problem, that needs to be addressed in a coordinated manner by the responsible authorities, say the Government! Your health condition affects seriously others', you can't or shouldn't be allowed to do just whatever suits you, when that is damming for others and the society as a whole.
And wanting to apply the Swedish option to the US finds another serious issue: there is no public health system in the US. If you have no money to pay for the health services you need then you're screwed. Sweden at least has an excellent health system, but for that you need to pay slightly higher taxes than you seem to be willing to in the US (you could still tax the giant corporations... just an idea). A nice example of what I'm saying is the case of a 17 year-old boy to whom basic care was denied at an urgent-care center because he had no insurance; see here: https://www.businessinsider.com/coro...or-says-2020-3

I should stop here, I'm already upset enough with this.

Last edited by RafaelMatias : Monday 4th May 2020 at 19:06.
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Old Monday 4th May 2020, 19:10   #62
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Those that would like to see it applied to the US certainly know that this disease affects (visibly, and with death) disproportionately not only elderly people (whom are part of the society as well!! and very valuable elements they are!) but also social minorities (in the US particularly afro-americans, "latinos" and Native Americans, the Navajo being a most cited example). So, they either don't care that others less fortunate might suffer because of them or they don't fully understand what this contagious disease is.
+ Overweight or with underlying health issues such as diabetes? - That cuts through a large tranche of the general US public additionally ...
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Old Monday 4th May 2020, 19:21   #63
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Sweden avoided a lockdown and did not have a massive loss of life, so I think the utility of lockdowns, with the corresponding high social costs, needs to be severely scrutinized.
Here in the US, where the social network is pretty limited and where there are many undocumented immigrants that work outside the regular system, the lockdown has been brutally painful. Those who suffer most are those whose voices are the least heard, as their modest livelihoods disappear.

I'd believe more in lockdowns if the evidence were stronger and if the people instituting them shared in the pain they inflict. At a minimum, the salaries of the legislatures that approve lockdowns should be reduced to unemployment levels of compensation, to bring home to them the consequences of their decisions.
Conversely, many of the politicians and media personalities most loudly arguing for opening up the country are also those individuals who can most afford to self-isolate and who have top shelf health care. Given that the people who are seemingly most effected are the essential workers who often have poor health care and can't afford to stay home, they are the ones who are most disproportionately suffering the current health issues (look at differences in mortality rates between African Americans and Caucasians).

Hey, this whole situation sucks, and even those of us who have been able to maintain employment are looking forward to some severe financial repercussions down the line (I will certainly be furloughed for some unknown amount of time next academic year). We can't be closed forever, but I just wish all of this anger about closures was instead focused on why we don't have the testing necessary to get back to work safely, or why exactly the social safety net is such a failure right now.
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Old Monday 4th May 2020, 19:36   #64
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As said above and elsewhere in this and other multiple covid threads (would you like to start yet another one? please, by all means...), the Swedish experience was indeed an experiment.
It was an absolutely reckless experiment on humans, totally beyond ethical limits, in my opinion because of the following 3 factors:

1) the virus is a new virus, almost no knowledge about its consequences over human health were known by the time the decision of doing nothing was taken; we're still far from knowing all the consequences it has, but now we're starting to understand it affects the whole body (with blood clotting being the very first symptom, as I wrote somewhere else); on some people these effects do not reach the threshold of being noticeable, on others it means death: it's a lottery.

2) there was no specific medication for this disease (paracetamol was all that was there), as there still isn't (remdesivir not an example, it reduces slightly the time one needs to spend at a hospital, it's nice and welcomed, but doesn't apply here); so, no relief could be offered (by the State...) to infected patients;

3) there was no knowledge at all if there would be any heard immunity being acquired by the population; we still don't know this for sure at all, even less 2 months ago (it was just assumed, based on previous knowledge for other viruses); this could render the whole sinister experiment useless;

So, the Swedish government decided to take its whole population down an unknown road; it's really experimenting on humans on a massive scale. The health minister was asked why did they fail to protect the nursing homes. He replied they need to investigate what went wrong. Nice!

So I should add:
4) no preventive specific measures were taken to protect the most vulnerable.

The difference in death toll is quite staggering when compared with that of neighboring countries or even with Portugal (the same population). When I raised the case of Brazil the other day, and the mass mortality they're having (4 times average values, with a massive number of graves being dug) Tenex failed to connect the dots (as he did with all the rest I said, perhaps intentionally, or it was just too hard for him). The formula used in many parts of Brazil was that used in Sweden and it failed miserably! Why is Brazil relevant here? Because it has a population of about 210 million people, and if you like experiments on humans there you go. It doesn't work the same way on every place you use this "solution".

As a biologist and ecologist, with actually some work done in the epidemiology camp (I might actually be the only one in this thread, I'd say most likely) I have ethical limits that I cherish and look forward to go by. I don't think something like this would be allowed to be done on this scale on seabirds (the animals I used to work with). It seems to me I have more respect for my study subjects than some have for other people including their fellow citizens.

Those that would like to see it applied to the US certainly know that this disease affects (visibly, and with death) disproportionately not only elderly people (whom are part of the society as well!! and very valuable elements they are!) but also social minorities (in the US particularly afro-americans, "latinos" and Native Americans, the Navajo being a most cited example). So, they either don't care that others less fortunate might suffer because of them or they don't fully understand what this contagious disease is. A public demonstrator in the US was claiming the other day "it's my body". No, it's a public health serious problem, that needs to be addressed in a coordinated manner by the responsible authorities, say the Government! Your health condition affects seriously others', you can't or shouldn't be allowed to do just whatever suits you, when that is damming for others and the society as a whole.
And wanting to apply the Swedish option to the US finds another serious issue: there is no public health system in the US. If you have no money to pay for the health services you need then you're screwed. Sweden at least has an excellent health system, but for that you need to pay slightly higher taxes than you seem to be willing to in the US (you could still tax the giant corporations... just an idea). A nice example of what I'm saying is the case of a 17 year-old boy to whom basic care was denied at an urgent-care center because he had no insurance; see here: https://www.businessinsider.com/coro...or-says-2020-3

I should stop here, I'm already upset enough with this.
You make some valid points, but no-one here advocating alternative courses of action does not care about their fellow humans.

In fact this virus has brought some long recognized inequalities out into a more mainstream light.

The fact of the matter is that no country has dealt with this in the best way possible.

The areas that were /are woefully lacking are in the protection of those in aged care, health workers, other vulnerable demographics /niches, and the support of same. Some countries made a meal of spread by travel. Even then, I recall a press call by Trump very early on, where he wanted to shut incoming travel from high risk nations down - but was prevented from doing so !

The counterpoint to what you are saying (which in no way invalidates or even disagrees with that) is:-

Who the heck gave these governments carte blanche to do whatever stoopid thing they have enacted (on many fronts - liberty, and financial sanctity being among them) ...... ?

That is the target of these points people have been raising - where is the accountability, the oversight, the sunset clauses, etc ? - especially given the woefully inadequate statistical data gathering. These are entirely valid issues for populations to consider, gather in demonstration about, or even take action about.

In my view, this whole thing is about governance, leadership, and management strategies. These are my trained lenses, however even months ago, the medical evidence emerging had me asking questions diametrically opposed to action taken and action proposed.





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Old Monday 4th May 2020, 21:37   #65
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I'd believe more in lockdowns if the evidence were stronger and if the people instituting them shared in the pain they inflict.
You don't seem to get it. The figures from Europe (Spain, Italy, France, Begium, Norway, Denmark, Germany, Austria and so on) prove conclusively that the lockdowns did work - they slowed down the growth of the number of cases. Covid has an RO of about 3, at the time the lockdowns were introduced R was pretty close to that figure (I think in Germany is was something like 2.7) which meant exponential growth.

Now that R has fallen in these countries to some figure below 1 the health care systems can cope and actually trace any contacts infected people had. That in turn allows for some re-opening of the economy while still keeping the pandemic under control.

Models for the UK for instance suggested something like 400,000 people would have been killed without a lockdown. Now it looks as though the figures will be considerably lower even though the British government acted like the bunch of fools they are in the beginning.

BTW, in case someone believes this disease only kills the old and people with co-morbidities: There is increasing evidence that a significant number of people who had the disease will suffer long term effects even though they survived. Damage to the lungs, the kidneys, neurological problems such an increased risk of strokes ... How large these problems will be will only become apparent in a year or so, once the results of long term studies are in.

Hermann

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Old Monday 4th May 2020, 23:30   #66
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You don't seem to get it. The figures from Europe (Spain, Italy, France, Begium, Norway, Denmark, Germany, Austria and so on) prove conclusively that the lockdowns did work - they slowed down the growth of the number of cases. Covid has an RO of about 3, at the time the lockdowns were introduced R was pretty close to that figure (I think in Germany is was something like 2.7) which meant exponential growth.

Now that R has fallen in these countries to some figure below 1 the health care systems can cope and actually trace any contacts infected people had. That in turn allows for some re-opening of the economy while still keeping the pandemic under control.

Models for the UK for instance suggested something like 400,000 people would have been killed without a lockdown. Now it looks as though the figures will be considerably lower even though the British government acted like the bunch of fools they are in the beginning.

BTW, in case someone believes this disease only kills the old and people with co-morbidities: There is increasing evidence that a significant number of people who had the disease will suffer long term effects even though they survived. Damage to the lungs, the kidneys, neurological problems such an increased risk of strokes ... How large these problems will be will only become apparent in a year or so, once the results of long term studies are in.

Hermann
We're communicating poorly, I'm not disputing the lockdown helped, albeit at tremendous cost.
I believe that most of the benefits of the lockdowns were available at much lower human cost by the sensible social distancing measures implemented by Sweden among others.
The rest is overkill, impoverishing the poorest for no benefit, based on essentially zero evidence other than that locking people into their homes worked in China.
Afaik, there have never been such a lockdown previously in any of the western countries, so this is an unprecedented move, hugely fraught with future consequences. I fear most of them will be very bad indeed.
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Old Tuesday 5th May 2020, 00:12   #67
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As said above and elsewhere in this and other multiple covid threads (would you like to start yet another one? please, by all means...), the Swedish experience was indeed an experiment.
It was an absolutely reckless experiment on humans, totally beyond ethical limits, in my opinion because of the following 3 factors:

1) the virus is a new virus, almost no knowledge about its consequences over human health were known by the time the decision of doing nothing was taken; we're still far from knowing all the consequences it has, but now we're starting to understand it affects the whole body (with blood clotting being the very first symptom, as I wrote somewhere else); on some people these effects do not reach the threshold of being noticeable, on others it means death: it's a lottery.

2) there was no specific medication for this disease (paracetamol was all that was there), as there still isn't (remdesivir not an example, it reduces slightly the time one needs to spend at a hospital, it's nice and welcomed, but doesn't apply here); so, no relief could be offered (by the State...) to infected patients;

3) there was no knowledge at all if there would be any heard immunity being acquired by the population; we still don't know this for sure at all, even less 2 months ago (it was just assumed, based on previous knowledge for other viruses); this could render the whole sinister experiment useless;

So, the Swedish government decided to take its whole population down an unknown road; it's really experimenting on humans on a massive scale. The health minister was asked why did they fail to protect the nursing homes. He replied they need to investigate what went wrong. Nice!

So I should add:
4) no preventive specific measures were taken to protect the most vulnerable.

The difference in death toll is quite staggering when compared with that of neighboring countries or even with Portugal (the same population). When I raised the case of Brazil the other day, and the mass mortality they're having (4 times average values, with a massive number of graves being dug) Tenex failed to connect the dots (as he did with all the rest I said, perhaps intentionally, or it was just too hard for him). The formula used in many parts of Brazil was that used in Sweden and it failed miserably! Why is Brazil relevant here? Because it has a population of about 210 million people, and if you like experiments on humans there you go. It doesn't work the same way on every place you use this "solution".

As a biologist and ecologist, with actually some work done in the epidemiology camp (I might actually be the only one in this thread, I'd say most likely) I have ethical limits that I cherish and look forward to go by. I don't think something like this would be allowed to be done on this scale on seabirds (the animals I used to work with). It seems to me I have more respect for my study subjects than some have for other people including their fellow citizens.

Those that would like to see it applied to the US certainly know that this disease affects (visibly, and with death) disproportionately not only elderly people (whom are part of the society as well!! and very valuable elements they are!) but also social minorities (in the US particularly afro-americans, "latinos" and Native Americans, the Navajo being a most cited example). So, they either don't care that others less fortunate might suffer because of them or they don't fully understand what this contagious disease is. A public demonstrator in the US was claiming the other day "it's my body". No, it's a public health serious problem, that needs to be addressed in a coordinated manner by the responsible authorities, say the Government! Your health condition affects seriously others', you can't or shouldn't be allowed to do just whatever suits you, when that is damming for others and the society as a whole.
And wanting to apply the Swedish option to the US finds another serious issue: there is no public health system in the US. If you have no money to pay for the health services you need then you're screwed. Sweden at least has an excellent health system, but for that you need to pay slightly higher taxes than you seem to be willing to in the US (you could still tax the giant corporations... just an idea). A nice example of what I'm saying is the case of a 17 year-old boy to whom basic care was denied at an urgent-care center because he had no insurance; see here: https://www.businessinsider.com/coro...or-says-2020-3

I should stop here, I'm already upset enough with this.
Understanding all that you said, I very much disagree.
Imho the Swedish government did the right thing ethically as well as practically.
They recognized that a lockdown would disproportionately damage the poorest and weakest members of society, without adding materially to the benefits that social distancing and masks provide.
The degree to which other governments were willing to ignore that discrepancy is quite disheartening.
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Old Tuesday 5th May 2020, 01:16   #68
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File under "lies".
The 'lies' are the actual country by country reported numbers.
Please articulate what the rational objection would be.
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Old Tuesday 5th May 2020, 02:22   #69
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Moronic. . ..

I simply posted this as an alternate view....but if you disagree with something? It definitely warrants a second look as being spot on. And based on the WHO and China's reactions over the last four months one has to wonder if much of what O'Reilly opined is likely true.

I know that you don't like to believe (or even read) anything that isn't approved by der kommandant aka NYT, Atlantic, Huff Po, WaPo, et al...
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Old Tuesday 5th May 2020, 03:05   #70
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Even if serial rapist Bill knew the cure to cancer, he doesn't deserve to be listened to by anyone. Yet the "piece" stands fully on its own as a manifest of stupidity. Trump is a genius, ha ha!
Obvious power yawn when you're involved in a subject. The ensuing stupidity is epic.
Trump's pre-covid economy was historic, not something that just happens no matter how hard you try to dismiss it or attribute it to his do-nothing predecessor.

Oh, re. these O'Reilly 'rapist' comments, let us know your thoughts on Creepy Joe's lifetime of groping and child assault... although I already know the depths of your hypocrisy.
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Old Tuesday 5th May 2020, 06:56   #71
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Obvious power yawn when you're involved in a subject. The ensuing stupidity is epic.
Trump's pre-covid economy was historic, not something that just happens no matter how hard you try to dismiss it or attribute it to his do-nothing predecessor.

Oh, re. these O'Reilly 'rapist' comments, let us know your thoughts on Creepy Joe's lifetime of groping and child assault... although I already know the depths of your hypocrisy.
Thank you, I appreciate your dismissal of me, I wouldn't like to be seen positively by a person of your opinions.
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Old Tuesday 5th May 2020, 07:43   #72
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We're communicating poorly, I'm not disputing the lockdown helped, albeit at tremendous cost.
I believe that most of the benefits of the lockdowns were available at much lower human cost by the sensible social distancing measures implemented by Sweden among others.
I think Hermann and others have communicated very clearly. Your second sentence is indisputably wrong, Sweden's decision not to go into lockdown resulted in far greater death rates than in its demographically similar neighbors.

Perhaps you think that the death rate in Sweden is an acceptable price to pay for limiting economic damage, and you have a legitimate point, albeit one that I don't share. But please don't make it seem like there is a 'third way' - we can call it the 'magic wand' solution - in which you can sensibly reduce the death rate without adopting strict measures, because there isn't. There haven't been that many deaths in Sweden because of its low population density and excellent public health care. Replicate those conditions in a country with the demographics and the health care system of the U.S. and deaths will climb to the millions. Even under the present conditions, current Trump administration projections forecast 3,000 dead/day by June, and the vast majority will be the economically disadvantaged, minorities, and the elderly. And given the lack of protection that most workers have in the U.S., you will find yourself in a situation where people who work in places such as meat packing plants will feel the obligation to come into work sick, putting themselves and others at danger. There are ways to mitigate the economic impact of a lockdown, such as some form of universal basic income, at least on a temporary basis. You can't mitigate death, though.

And finally, about your concerns over an authoritarian drift. I actually share your concerns, but what do you think is worse: temporary restrictions on personal freedoms to avert a public health disaster, leaving people fully cognizant of their rights and with some degree of trust left in democratic institutions, or an out-of-control epidemic that's going to leave a frightened population clamoring for authoritarian leadership? I'm much more concerned about the second option
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Old Tuesday 5th May 2020, 07:47   #73
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I simply posted this as an alternate view....
Made-up bullshit posted by some random guy on Facebook isn't an alternate view, it's just made-up bullshit.

And as pointed out upthread, Bill O'Reilly hasn't actually opined anything
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Old Tuesday 5th May 2020, 08:12   #74
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Well, it is quite polarising isn't it?!

This is an apex predator and needs to be taken seriously - it's virgin territory. Comparable to a third world war, or on a local scale a famine - except, relatively speaking no-one really cares about a localised famine, much. Everyone is playing blind, but there is information out there and best guesses. There is really no excuse for Western Governments being caught on the hop though with a pandemic, the poor equipment failures etc. They had warning.

If it's humanity you're worried about, then poorer parts of the world as S America, India, some African nations are even more of an issue wrt lockdowns etc.


But it shouldn't even be about 'poorer' per se - it's about wealth distribution and organization too. 'Lockdown' doesn't have to be economically debilitating. But obviously cannot carry on indefinitely ... !!!

Despite some painting it as a black and white issue (lockdown/not lockdown), there will have to be compromises and ways around whilst this big bad predator is still out there. All countries (economies/population density/government style etc) are different.
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Old Tuesday 5th May 2020, 08:18   #75
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It's being reported that a French doctor is claiming that one of his patients who was previously diagnosed with pneumonia in DECEMBER, has retrospectively, tested positive for the Covid virus.

The patient had not been out of France and has recovered.

It will cause some head scratching is this proves true.
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