So while it's true that absolute bag size shouldn't really matter, if the grouse densities drop below the level required for driven shooting, then the demand may well disappear altogether as many people may prefer driven pheasant or partridge shooting to walked up grouse.
Thanks, Capercaillie. That's what I was wondering. The question is, would those who participate in driven grouse shoots actually go "downmarket" to pen-reared pheasants and partridge, less of a challenge to shoot and in much less inspiring surroundings, or would they perhaps move to walked-up grouse, or simply 'make do' with fewer targets?
What I'm getting at is we don't know the elasticity of demand. It isn't
necessarily true, as Isurus says, that "lack of grouse translates pretty quickly to lack of ca$h-money." That surely depends on the availability of grouse or alternatives to grouse elsewhere. A lack of oil certainly doesn't lead to a lack of money for oil companies. nor does the scarcity of diamonds send De Beers to the wall. Since grouse shooting is a conspicuous consumption good, with few obvious alternatives, and a cachet in its difficulty, could it not be surprisingly resistant to decline from a
general lack of grouse
in the long-term?
In our own hobby scarcity, rarity and difficulty are prized highly. If there were simply fewer birds, would the popularity of birding decline and its economic impact decrease?
I don't know the answer, I just wanted to point out that without evidence of when, how and why bag size impacts participation in grouse shooting vs other pastimes, it isn't safe to draw conclusions about economic viability.
Graham
PS - thanks for the Telegraph links, Isurus.
EDIT - cross-post with KN's post covering, in particular, the cyclical nature of the population and the alternatives in Africa and Argentina - I think that blows my elasticity musings out of the water.