Ten Spoonbills fledge at Holkham NNR (1 Viewer)

Bubbs said:

And the winters?

I have never heard the word 'nasty, wet summers', in all the global warming hype over the years.

John.

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I'll put my hand up and say I think I may have got that slightly wrong, having a scurry round the Net - the tendency will be drier summers. However what I meant was an increased incidence of extreme weather events such as the recent summer floodings are possible indicators of climate change. The problem is single events do not prove anything - it's only the studying of trends over the years that will give any evidence.

Equally one "old-skool" freezing winter like the last does not disprove global warming.

That's the big problem with climate change - it's difficult to pinpoint things that are happening here in the temperate parts of the world as proving or disproving anything. Changes nearer the equator, and at the poles, are where the dramatic events are happening.

I think breeding of Spoonbills is most likely due to the growth of breeding population in the Netherlands*, which overspilled previously to German and Danish coasts.

It has much less to do with Britain, although having a welcome reserves helped a lot.

Many people in Britain are scratching their heads, why some southern birds "like" their country and colonize, but others don't. Surely, a large colonial Spoonbill have it more difficult to find a breeding place in England than a tiny shrike or Little Bittern? It is due to the population growth abroad, which forces some birds to breed in new areas. Look at population growth/decrease in other countries and you will know.

*Some of traditional Dutch breeding places of Spoonbills were very dry several years ago, letting Foxes in, forcing Spoonbills to move to other reserves, which they found more to their liking.

Population dynamics can be significant in potentially showing a relationship with climate change, but in this case inappropriate; already elaborated by a number of people.

The parameters that affect climate change are relatively complex. The high variability of many of these parameters when applied to an appropriate finite element or difference model makes accurate predictions difficult.

Being strongly emotive of climate change with only a lay knowledge is quite frankly just silly at best.

More Spoonbills please!

Hotspur said:

....... Why are Rollers & Hoopoes rarer now than previously if the climate has ameliorated? Why don't southern breeding birds of prey suddenly start roaming the lizard? .........

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The trouble with Global warming is that nobody really knows what might happen, because we've never been here before during our brief recorded history.

There are many different posssibilities. One is that we may start having Mediterranean summers. Another is that Global warming may melt the Arctic ice cap and the resultant flow of fresh water into the ocean may move the gulf stream, plunging Britain into temperatures comparible with Moscow and Hudson Bay. The ice cap is melting. The North West passage is open.

Another scenario suggests that yes we will have warmer summers, but that doesn't necessarily mean sunny, it may mean more cloudy. Clouds keep the heat in like a blanket (take a look at Venus!). Cloudy may mean wetter. Perhaps that's what is happening. More cloud, more rain, combined with more destruction of habitat = less insects = no Hoopoes, no Rollers and no Red-backed Shrikes. Bumble bee populations have crashed. It was on the news just the other day. Mediterranean insect eating birds don't just need heat, they need food......

I don't know how anybody can deny that there are serious climatic changes happening, even if you don't agree that we Humans are the cause. Northern species are clearly retreating, southern species are clearly advancing, our winters are generally nowhere near as cold as they used to be and every month on the news they report somewhere in the World the worst floods in history, the worst drought, the coldest winter ever, the most powerful hurricane, there is always something and it's always the worst in living memory.

To deny global warming just because we have one cold winter is just so short sighted. All our winters should be cold, not one every 30 years!

Back on topic, I like Spoonbills and I'm pleased to see them breeding, and yes it is interesting that they chose to breed in North West England 10 years before they bred at Holkham, and it's also interesting that Black-winged Stilts did the same (Frodsham, Martin Mere, Neumans Flash).

If you can get hold of the book 'Birds Britannica', there is quite a lot of interesting information about the former status of the Spoonbill in England. It was clearly a common and widespread species in east Anglia and the fens up until the 1600s when the big drainage schemes took place. There are many place names associated with spoonbills and many records of them being eaten at feasts. So it seems likely that habitat restoration (in the Netherlands and UK) and perhaps protection from hunting are the main drivers for the recent spread of this species.

Incidentally, everyone seems to forget that there are a number of northern species which have spread south over the last century- RB Merganser, Goosander, Fulmar, Siskin. As far as I am aware, none of these have started retreating northwards again.

I've no doubt that climate change is occurring but I think it is too soon to say exactly what the impacts are likely to be on birds because there have been significant habitat changes occurring at the same time.

Capercaillie

Interesting idea about the “northern species” although I guess this may be accounted for by evolutionary adaptability. Some species can move or stay south, others move northwards.

Overall you have to look at trends not individual species.

I am not particularly interested in what species used to be in Britain and using this as justification for bringing them back or being happy when they return.

It might be interesting to plot the evidence for Spoonbills in 16th Century Britain against historical climate data perhaps this was a climate related warm spell??

Mike D.
“I think breeding of Spoonbills is most likely due to the growth of breeding population in the Netherlands*, which overspilled previously to German and Danish coasts“.

I agree, this is another reason why it is not fantastic news that Spoonbills are breeding in Britain.

1. As I started with they are indicators of global warming as are many many other species/measurements.

2. There is a growing population on the continent. Which is very likely to increase as due to climate change habitats such as the below are created/recreated

"The Noordwaard has only been reclaimed during the 20th century and hosts some of most fertile farmlands in the entire Netherlands. However, as a result of the high water levels in the Dutch rivers during the '90s, the government has decided to undo the reclamation and reconnect the Noordwaard to the Merwede rivers (essentially the Rhine). In this way it can serve as a buffer and can be of much importance in the prevention of dike breaks and resulting flooding in densely populated area's in the Rhine-Meuse-Scheldt delta. The first phase of the "de-poldering" has been completed by 2008 and the resulting wetlands has been added to the National Park. The second phase will be completed somewhere between 2015 en 2020"

The Dutch aren’t doing this because they want to but because they have to.

3. One of the predicted outcomes of global warming is increased sea levels and flooding of low lying areas. So long-term lots more wetlands to come and lots more Spoonbills.(although short term due to food shortages we'll lose lots of wetlands in areas as they are drained and planted). As the low lying areas flood we lose lots of agricultural land and other areas/habitats will have to be used for food production.

In a world where sea levels are going up we don't need conservationists to create wetlands.

In Europe we are going to have more water than we can cope with. Further south more desert than they can cope with. Further north maybe a wildlife spectacular as vast tracts of habitat becomes habitable. Perhaps the "northern" species that conservationists are getting all excited about as we lose them from Britain e.g. Hen Harriers will increase in numbers up there.

The three main reasons we have these lovely though probably unnecessary wetland reserves in Britain is that conservationists love grants and the EEC give big grants for the creation of wetlands (primarily for bitterns).

Most of our food is grown elsewhere in the world and exported in. Our reserves are built on the back of the destruction of other habitats which in many cases are much more valuable to wildlife than the british reserves.

Most of our manufacturing has gone East with further habitat destruction/pollution. Our wetlands are clean because the pollution has been moved. Again often to areas with much more ecological importance.

Every time some conservationist appears on the telly/radio/newspapers/other media and crows about very small local gains they give the impression that things are o.k. It breeds complacancy and colludes with much more significant global processess.

As long as they get their grants and build their empires they don't particularly care.

Just had a quick look at climate in 16th centuary.

Although somewhat contentious it seems that a Medieval warm period was followed by a localised cooling (the so-called mini ice age).

So as a possibility we have Spoonbills doing well in the warm period, perhaps being bolstered by immigrants fleeing continental Europe (Britain being warmer than the continent) as the cool period continued they eventually die out in Britain but continue to do well further south below the localised cooling.

John, your point about our reserves being built on the back of the destruction of other habitats elsewhere in the world is an interesting one which I hadn't considered before, but conservationists have limited influence over global economics. We can sometimes only do our bit in our corner of the world and every little bit helps. It seems ridiculiusly pessimistic to not be happy about new species breeding here even if, despite many people suggesting otherwise, you consider them to be here because of "global warming"

On the wider issue of "climate change"/"global warming", I think the more people take an over-alarmist approach as you do, the more people dismiss climate change completely. We have to be sensible about it and recognise that climate changes naturally over time and that species expand and contract their ranges naturally otherwise the deniers quite understandably dismiss it all as a load of rubbish.

John o'Sullivan said:

Most of our food is grown elsewhere in the world and exported in. Our reserves are built on the back of the destruction of other habitats which in many cases are much more valuable to wildlife than the british reserves.

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In fact most of our food (60%) is grown in the UK, and two-thirds of our food imports come from the EU. So 85-90% of our food is grown in areas that are subject to the same level of environmental regulation as we have in the UK.

John o'Sullivan said:

Just had a quick look at climate in 16th centuary.

Although somewhat contentious it seems that a Medieval warm period was followed by a localised cooling (the so-called mini ice age).

So as a possibility we have Spoonbills doing well in the warm period, perhaps being bolstered by immigrants fleeing continental Europe (Britain being warmer than the continent) as the cool period continued they eventually die out in Britain but continue to do well further south below the localised cooling.

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What a bizarre suggestion - I haven't seen any evidence to suggest that Spoonbills colonised in the 16th century or anytime in written history. Just that they were extirpated.

Amarillo said:

John, your point about our reserves being built on the back of the destruction of other habitats elsewhere in the world is an interesting one

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Egh, aren't UK and EU major exporters of food?

jurek said:

Egh, aren't UK and EU major exporters of food?

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hmmm, well I said it was interesting, not that I agree with it!

Having thought about it, it makes no sense

Hotspur,

I was suggesting exactly the opposite. That during the cold period (which followed a warm period) the population of spoonbills reduced/died out. Maybe due to fenland drainage but maybe also due to a natural range contraction due to a period of natural cooling.

I also had a quick look at BOP stats in the BBRC rare birds reports. Hobbies straight increase in numbers, Montagues harriers at record numbers, Honey buzzards although difficult to assess at higher numbers than the 90's. My impression and I'm sure the stats would bear me out is that Black kite sightings are much more regular now than pre 1990. The picture with red kites more complicated but it seems there is a regular spring influx into the South West that may be continental in origin. The reports of Booted Eagles also seem more frequent now than before.

Of course it is much more difficult for BOP's to find suitable habitat in an intensely farmed herbicided and pesticided landscape (see decline of Kestrels for supporting evidence). Scavangers like kites of course do well.

Capercaillie. are you having a laugh?

"subject to the same level of environmental regulation as we have in the UK". have you seen the stats for farmland birds in the Uk. This is the standard we are to aspire to??

Lots of the EU is subject to the EU standards but they aren't enforced.

I'm not sure about the 60% stat. I saw a figure quoted that in proportionate terms to resources used we had used up all our own production by the end of April. The rest of the year we were living on the rest of the worlds resources.

Amirillo-alarmist!!
Have you seen the evidence for droughts in Africa/Australia, the bleaching of corals, the increase in ferocity of tropical storms, the surge in forest fires, desertification, the melting of the icecaps, the rise in worldwide temperature, the destruction of 1/3rd of the Russin Wheat crop etc etc.

Alarmist be Bu$$ered.

I don't know what is causing global warming but I know the scientifc concensus is that it is unlike anything that has occured before. The overwhelming consensus is that it is human induced.

I'd have more respect for conservation bodies if they stopped kowtowing to Global capitalism, stopped chasing bribes (grants) starting talking seriously about the significant lifestyle changes that would be required to bring about meaningful change and stopped behaving like gamekeepers. They don't do any of the things that would really matter but they do breed complacancy and they like to pretend they are making a difference.

I found this so 60% seems a reasonable figure. But %40 of a lot of food is a lot of food.

"But Britain, as an island nation, is particularly vulnerable. We have not been self-sufficient in food since the late 18th century, but the situation is rapidly worsening.

In 1995, 27 per cent of UK food was imported. By 2006 it was 37 per cent. The situation is obviously more critical in cities: London imports more than 80 per cent and a food shortage would hit the capital the hardest.

The situation is worsened, of course, by the fact that we are having to compete for supplies on the global market with many more nations than ever before.

For centuries, the typical Chinese diet consisted of rice and vegetables, but as the Chinese pour into the newly emerging cities, so their diets are changing. In 1962, the average Chinese ate just 4kg of meat per year: by 2005 that figure was 60kg and rising.

The result has placed huge pressure not only on prices, but on natural resources required to cope with this increased demand.

It is not simply that we do not have enough land to grow the grain to feed the animals which in turn feed us. In the past two decades, pressure on our natural resources has increased to a level which many experts fear has become unsustainable.

For example, in the U.S., the use of hydrocarbon pesticides has increased 33 times as farmers sought to increase production and yet, as soil structures weaken due to over-use and mono-crop cultivation, more crops are being lost to pests every year.

The world has a finite supply of fresh water too, yet 70 per cent of all freshwater is used for agriculture, often horribly wastefully.

Here's a good read http://www.ifr.ac.uk/waste/Reports/DEFRA-Ensuring-UK-Food-Security-in-a-changing-world-170708.pdf.

Thanks people for the debate. I've said this before but part of the reason I post on BF is to get people's responses. I have a range of ideas ( I don't konw if they are right/wrong) that I check out by chucking them on here. Today I've looked at BBRC and Defra. I wouldn't have done this witout your responses.

This very interesting, but, being a birder, if spoonbills (and they'd be Black-faced in my case) bred near me I'd still be happy to go and see them - a dozen over-summered last year so its not impossible.

Cheers
Mike

Personally I've nothing against Spoonbills.

I hold onto the idea that it is not fantastic news though. It was predictable and globally (even locally if you count the near continent local) irrelevant.

My bug is with conservationists taking the credit for southern species coming north and also the unthinking attitude towards conservation that lots of people hold.

Just as with Black-winged Stilt and Bee-eater in recent years, these Spoonbills may have successfully bred this year but may not return next year. It could be the same with this years Little Bitterns and Purple Herons. It is fantastic news; there are another 10 Spoonbills out there to hopefully reach adulthood and successfully breed in future years whether here in the UK or within the established breeding range.

It can also be regarded as fantastic news because the eggs didn't end up in the grubby mitts of some a***hole egger... :t:

James

John o'Sullivan said:

Amirillo-alarmist!!
Have you seen the evidence for droughts in Africa/Australia, the bleaching of corals, the increase in ferocity of tropical storms, the surge in forest fires, desertification, the melting of the icecaps, the rise in worldwide temperature, the destruction of 1/3rd of the Russin Wheat crop etc etc.

Alarmist be Bu$$ered.

I don't know what is causing global warming but I know the scientifc concensus is that it is unlike anything that has occured before. The overwhelming consensus is that it is human induced.

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As I said before, I'm not a climate change denier. But as many people here have explained, spoonbills, little egrets, cattle egrets etc starting to breed in Britain has nothing whatsoever to do with climate change and by arguing that something is because of climate change when it isn't, I would say you are being alarmist and this kind of thing simply plays into the hands of the deniers.

You talk about an overwhelming consensus of experts saying that man-made climate change exists. An overwhelming consensus of experts will also tell you that spoonbills breeding in Britian is NOT because of climate change!

John o'Sullivan said:

The overwhelming consensus is that it is human induced.

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I think you'll find that would be considered " human exacerbated" not "induced" as the global climate is a dynamic system of incredible complexity. And while we are at it, can we stop talking about "global warming"? I know that in a strictly scientific sense that is what is occuring but the vast majority of people ( and not all of them members of the general public ) have latched onto the idea that it's all going to be sunshine, palm trees and bloody sangria in the temerate latitudes. With such possibilities as the compression of the North Atlantic Drift Current under masses of fresh melt water from the Arctic we, in Britain could be living in a climate similar to Hudson's Bay ( look at a map to see how far north we are ! ) As for the Spoonbills nesting at Holkham that could be because they are resettling lost areas, lack of suitable habitat in sufficient quantity / quality in their core range and so they are moving into suboptimal habitat or an actual northern extension of their range. Whatever the cause they are here and they are an addition to the breeding avifauna of Britain ( and a rather good one too IMO )
Chris

Yes, apologies Chris, induced is the wrong word

And I agree with you - "global warming" can be a very misleading term

To be honest, I think the whole focus on "climate change" is not helping. I think it would be beneficial to return to focussing on seperate more "real" issues like deforestation, pollution, overfishing etc rather than lumping it all under misleading buzzwords like "climate change" and global warming"

The biggest thing we could do to combat climate change is stop destroying rainforests and other pristine habitats, but because everyone is obsessed with CO2 emissions you get counter-productive ideas like biofuels which in turn lead to more deforestation.