Britain 'may face sudden Ice Age' (1 Viewer)

seb_seb

Well-known member

• Aug 18, 2003

• #1

Britain may be basking in one of the hottest summers on record, but scientists now fear that the UK could face an abrupt switch to freezing winters and Icelandic summers. Leading global warming experts suspect that climate change, instead of being a gradual and largely predictable process, could mean that Europe's weather patterns will worsen severely with very little warning. At any time after 2010, their research suggests, Britain's average temperature could drop by up to 5C within as little as three or four years - with catastrophic results for farming, transport, northern towns and tourism.


Eeek

 

Andrew

wibble wibble

• Aug 18, 2003

• #2

New kinds of birds? Gyr Falcons and such.

 

Tony_InDevon

Bird Lover & People Photographer

• Aug 18, 2003

• #3

Could we actually see some of Andrews snow on the south coast then ? LOL

 

Michael Frankis

conehead

• Aug 18, 2003

• #4

Yes, the possibility is there, because of the risk that global warming will stop the Gulf Stream & North Atlantic Drift from flowing. And if we lose our warm ocean current here - bang, we're Labrador.

Very, very serious indeed. An end to arable farming in Britain, and that'll mean that Britain can't support a population of more than 5-10 million. Where the other 50 million can go . . . any suggestions? There's a limit to what generosity the rest of the world will show. The rich might be able to move down to the Med, but for most, it'll be starvation.

Michael

 

B

Beverlybaynes

Mod Squad

• Aug 18, 2003

• #5

A truly frightening thought! And if it's happening in Britain, it would surely be happening all over the northern hemisphere.

And since I'm not rich enough to move to the Med or anywhere else, starvation for me!

 

Michael Frankis

conehead

• Aug 18, 2003

• #6

Beverlybaynes said:

A truly frightening thought! And if it's happening in Britain, it would surely be happening all over the northern hemisphere.

Click to expand...

Hi Beverly,

Nope - just Britain, Ireland, northwest France, Iceland, Denmark & Norway - the places that get the benefit of warm water current in the North Atlantic. The rest of the world would continue to get hotter.

There's plenty of scientific literature published on the subject (and has been for a while, the oceanographics of it have been known for something like 10-20 years at least)

Michael

 

Andrew

wibble wibble

• Aug 18, 2003

• #7

Tony, too salty down your way for that to happen

Michael hit a good point, global warming could shift the gulf stream a fraction and I suppose this is enough to have a massive effect on our climate?

 

Michael Frankis

conehead

• Aug 18, 2003

• #8

Hi Andrew,

Yes. For a bit more detail, the Gulf Stream is 'powered' by ice freezing in the Arctic Ocean east of Greenland, north of Iceland. In cold winter weather, the sea there starts to freeze; ice is made of pure water crystals, leaving the salt behind in water that doesn't freeze. So the water that doesn't freeze gets saltier, and denser (heavier). This extra density means it sinks to the bottom of the Arctic Ocean, pulling in more surface water behind it.

Mild winters in the Arctic as a result of global warming mean that not enough (or no) water is freezing in the Arctic to make the unfrozen water dense enough to sink. As this sink powers the entire system like a gigantic pump, stop it, and the Gulf Stream stops.

That's a highly simplified summary of the system, which includes an incredibly complex set of undersea deep water currents going most of the way round the world, before the water eventually re-surfaces in the tropical Atlantic, warms up and moves back north again. For more info, type 'North Atlantic Conveyor' into google. You should get plenty of hits.

Michael

 

Michael Frankis

conehead

• Aug 18, 2003

• #9

Here's some websites with more info:
http://calspace.ucsd.edu/virtualmuseum/climatechange1/10_5.shtml (with maps showing the global circulation)
http://www.davidsuzuki.org/Climate_Change/Science/Conveyor.asp (ditto)
http://www.firstscience.com/site/articles/gribbin.asp (ditto)
http://www.columbia.edu/cu/pr/99/11/ocean/ocean1.html
http://www.globalchange.org/sciall/99fall4.htm

and many more . .

Michael

 

Last edited: Aug 18, 2003

B

Beverlybaynes

Mod Squad

• Aug 19, 2003

• #10

Oh, great! Now I'll have to move to the UK just to cool off! (at least til menopause is over and the hot flashes stop . . .)

 

alan_rymer

Well-known member

• Aug 19, 2003

• #11

Beverley

Was that hot flashes, or hot flushes?.

However, Global warming, Ice ages sound serious to life as we know around the planet. Unfortunatley there is not a thing we can do about it!. Its happened many times before, and will probably happen again. Whether we are here or not!. Its not really all that long ago that Ice Fairs were held on the frozen River Thames in the centre of London
Now what happened to all those fur coats that were disposed of a couple of decades ago?.

 

Last edited: Aug 19, 2003

Nina P

Nina

• Aug 19, 2003

• #12

My dear old dad used to ice skate on the Thames in his teens, and when the harbour at Christchurch froze in 1949/1950 winter there was a great gathering on the frozen river. Since then the big freezes have only happened in odd winters since, like 1963 and 1992 other than those years winters are mild to say the least, snow only settles in the odd 20/30 year cycle here in Dorset.
I have also heard about the gulf stream starting to shift, and when that does half the year we will be under water, and the other half under ice. Perrish the thought!!!! BRRRRR!
Nina.

 

Y

Yve_M

Colonial Member

• Aug 19, 2003

• #13

Michael - would Britain not change their farming practices and plant species to what is done over here where we are in winter for six months of the year. I would be really concerned about freezing in the dark though. Electricity conservation and non dependence on outside sources as was found out by the people in New York and Toronto recently would be something to look at.

 

Michael Frankis

conehead

• Aug 19, 2003

• #14

Hi Yve,

If this happened, we'd be planting the same crops as currently grown in coastal Labrador. In other words, slow-growing trees like White Spruce and Tamarack Larch, and a few sheep grazing at low density on subarctic grasses. The summers would be too cold to grow wheat, barley, oats, rye, etc. - average summer temperature around 12-14°C or so. Perhaps a little grain growable in the far southeast of Britain, with low yields.

It also means that Britain would be able to support about the same sort of population density as Labrador.

Michael

 

HokkaidoStu

occasional moderator

Staff member

Supporter

• Aug 19, 2003

• #15

That's thoroughly depressing. Guess I'd better stay here in Japan and send my family a few blankets........

I'm a little sceptical of all these pessimistic predictions though. I remember reading stuff like Paul Erlich ( sp? ) who predicted all kinds of nasty stuff in the early 70's that never came true ( mass starvation amongst other things ). I think scientists like to exaggerate a bit so as to scare people into further funding their research..........

Isn't the fact that Labrador is on the eastern side of a landmass mean it'll have a different climate to the UK even if the Gulf stream altered course? Wouldn't our climate be more like Vancouver? Or am I displaying my total ignorance of these things? ( I'm quoting from memory from my Geography O level ).

Still if it turns out to be true you all have EU passports so you can live on the dole in Greece or Spain!!!!

 

Y

Yve_M

Colonial Member

• Aug 19, 2003

• #16

Ok, so we can't grow the wheat, oats and barley species we have now. Our present species have been changed for short season growing. Let's change it for cooler temps and better yield at lower temps. I'm trying to save the British Isles here, work with me. LOL. At the same time I'll have to switch to longer growing season here and something a little more used to hot temps.

I have been doing alot of thinking lately about adaptation since hearing about all the people who died in France from dehydration and heat stroke - I realize many were seniors but why did they die? Why so many?

 

Michael Frankis

conehead

• Aug 19, 2003

• #17

Hi Yve,

Not sure if you're thinking of Saskatchwan here - but there's a big difference between Sas's warm, if short, summer (in most summers, your summer is actually quite a bit hotter than ours in June-Aug) and coastal Labrador, where the sea ice keeps summer temps low. We'd have the same problem with being surrounded by cold sea. (or am I mis-understanding your point?)

Unfortunately, there's a limit to how far one can push grain to adapt to grow in cold summers - if there wasn't, it'd be grown now in Labrador (and it isn't!!)

Of the deaths in France, the problem is that the summers are normally sufficiently cool that air conditioning isn't necessary (so most people don't have it), and that houses are also deliberately built with good insulation to reduce winter heating costs. So they were living in heat traps with no opportunity to cool off at night. The figure of 3,000 dead was calculated from total deaths in the heatwave, minus total deaths in the same period last year.

Hi Stu,
Partly right - but Vancouver is at the same latitude as northern France. We'd be more comparable to Sitka, southeast Alaska. Not much crops grown there, nor many people. Except the Pacific west coast also has a warm offshore current there, so it gets the same warming effect we do, just not quite so strong.

Michael

 

Andrew

wibble wibble

• Aug 19, 2003

• #18

Michael, Thanks for that summary! It is certainly more understandable now.

 

Geoff Brown

Well-known member

• Aug 19, 2003

• #19

To all,

Why worry. That rogue undetected giant asteroid heading through outer space for earth will probably finish all of us off soon anyway!!

 

P

pete schofield

Well-known member

• Aug 19, 2003

• #20

When was the last heat wave we had in britain about 1987 wasn't it. Now what was it they said soon after, yeah I remember Britain to face new ice age.

Deja vue or what.

Pete