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Birds and Weather - 2018

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Old Wednesday 4th July 2018, 09:27   #1
Captain_of_Crunch
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Birds and Weather - 2018

The National Hurricane Center has reported the first potential cyclones for this season, so I thought I would get the ball rolling with a new thread.

The first disturbance is located near Bermuda, with another off west Africa:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2

It is too early to say how these will develop, though some long range models show the Bermuda cyclone moving along the east coast of the US and potentially heading towards Britain/Ireland.
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Old Wednesday 4th July 2018, 17:58   #2
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Not just yet please, I've got no roof on my house
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Old Wednesday 4th July 2018, 19:04   #3
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Not just yet please, I've got no roof on my house
These cyclones are notoriously roofless.......
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Old Thursday 5th July 2018, 05:59   #4
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So how does this work exactly. I have seen similar threads in the past but every year I felt like late to the party :) The hurricane season is from now on and it may bring US rarities into the UK, right? We do have sometimes pretty good last-minute flights towards UK, but is it ever worth it doing that when conditions look good, or is it a really long shot? I understand that the best approach to this problem would be to just move to Corvo for several months, but I am gonna have a rather busy and unpredictable schedule now, so a swift jump to an accessible location would be much easier. Thanks!
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Old Thursday 5th July 2018, 21:34   #5
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So how does this work exactly. I have seen similar threads in the past but every year I felt like late to the party :) The hurricane season is from now on and it may bring US rarities into the UK, right? We do have sometimes pretty good last-minute flights towards UK, but is it ever worth it doing that when conditions look good, or is it a really long shot? I understand that the best approach to this problem would be to just move to Corvo for several months, but I am gonna have a rather busy and unpredictable schedule now, so a swift jump to an accessible location would be much easier. Thanks!
There was an extremely long thread on this subject last year - probably Weather Watch 2017 - which looked at this in extreme detail. Trying to work out which Atlantic weather systems will deliver and to where is a real art form. It is probably worth reading that thread
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Old Friday 6th July 2018, 08:27   #6
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Quite. The official forecasts are for a fixed period, largely automatic, and a bit cautious. We try to go a little beyond that, also with a view to predicting bird movements, especially at migrant hot-spots.

It adds to the fun, but can be embarrassing when we get it wrong !
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Old Friday 6th July 2018, 08:30   #7
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PS, the current unprecedented hot dry spell is because the Jet Stream is in the wrong place. Has anyone found out what's causing that? I'm struggling to find an explanation, A link would be jolly nice
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Old Friday 6th July 2018, 10:11   #8
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Jetstream has 'split' in ths instance, causing hot weather.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/release...0524141647.htm
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Old Saturday 7th July 2018, 07:33   #9
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Of interest, possibly - there's a tropical depression "THREE" off the US east coast, which is expected to develop into a proper hurricane "CHRIS" in a few days. No idea at this time whether it'll come this way, but it just might help break up this annoying weather pattern in a week or two
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Old Tuesday 10th July 2018, 22:01   #10
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Of interest, possibly - there's a tropical depression "THREE" off the US east coast, which is expected to develop into a proper hurricane "CHRIS" in a few days. No idea at this time whether it'll come this way, but it just might help break up this annoying weather pattern in a week or two
As predicted, now a Category 1 Hurricane. Potentially, it could affect the Western Isles and Orkney/Shetland, but it will be a few days before there is more certainty on the track.

No idea what such an early system could bring with it - early moving waders?
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Old Tuesday 10th July 2018, 23:09   #11
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Convinced about the intensity, but not the direction. I suspect it'll head up to Iceland/Greenland, unfortunately

1) They tend to do that
2) "model guidance has a much larger spread", and leans more on the more obscure forecasts, giving a surprisingly tight forecast envelope considering the "larger spread"
3) Hunch that the excessive Azores High isn't giving up that quickly

Having said that, the NHC forecaster is one of the most experienced ...

Still there might well be a few Yank waders turning up
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Old Tuesday 10th July 2018, 23:23   #12
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As predicted, now a Category 1 Hurricane. Potentially, it could affect the Western Isles and Orkney/Shetland, but it will be a few days before there is more certainty on the track.

No idea what such an early system could bring with it - early moving waders?
First white-rumped sands if there haven’t been any already.
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Old Wednesday 11th July 2018, 08:12   #13
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Latest on 'Chris' :

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graph...e_and_wind.png
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Old Friday 13th July 2018, 11:15   #14
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Jetstream has 'split' in ths instance, causing hot weather.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/release...0524141647.htm
Thanks for putting me onto Science Daily - I'm a firm fan now :-)
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Old Saturday 14th July 2018, 17:36   #15
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The trailing edge of Hurricane Chris touches the SW of the British Isles from tomorrow, though the really strong winds are gone now

Possibility of some interesting sea-watching perhaps - W Ireland tomorrow (Sunday) and maybe even Cornwall (Pendeen?) or St.Davids (Monday)

Or maybe nothing at all
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Old Tuesday 17th July 2018, 08:16   #16
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Of interest, the Met Office's 3-month forecast:
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/service...gency-planners

Near the end of the waffle, click on "Temperature Summary" and "Precipitation Summary". Very generalised cautious forecasts, and can get it wrong

Basically, same-o same-o: still dry but not as hot as it has been
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Old Friday 27th July 2018, 22:42   #17
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South-westerlies and storm clouds around tomorrow. Slightly later than the peak time (early to mid July), but still a chance of a movement of swifts at Spurn?
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Old Saturday 28th July 2018, 08:26   #18
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The trailing edge of Hurricane Chris touches the SW of the British Isles from tomorrow, though the really strong winds are gone now

Possibility of some interesting sea-watching perhaps - W Ireland tomorrow (Sunday) and maybe even Cornwall (Pendeen?) or St.Davids (Monday)

Or maybe nothing at all
Looks really good for Porthgwarra on Sunday morning.
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Old Sunday 29th July 2018, 12:51   #19
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Looks really good for Porthgwarra on Sunday morning.
Trinidade Petrel good enough ???

Get that man a banana.
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Old Sunday 29th July 2018, 14:15   #20
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To be fair i was only agreeing with Mr Watson who had already said it looked good so please send him the banana.
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Old Monday 30th July 2018, 16:52   #21
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I like bananas

However, my forecast was for over a week previous to this
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Old Tuesday 31st July 2018, 15:00   #22
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I like bananas

However, my forecast was for over a week previous to this
So, that's the Silver Banana for you John Watson.
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Old Tuesday 31st July 2018, 15:01   #23
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To be fair i was only agreeing with Mr Watson who had already said it looked good so please send him the banana.
And, the Golden Banana for you Jonathan Williams.
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Old Wednesday 1st August 2018, 21:07   #24
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I like bananas

However, my forecast was for over a week previous to this
Hats off to you even more then.
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Old Sunday 5th August 2018, 21:21   #25
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Possibly worth keeping an eye on this coming weekend for south-west seawatching. Magicseaweed and xcweather both suggesting a pick up in south-westerly winds from a small system developing in the East Atlantic. More importantly could be a bit of precipitation attached to it according to xc (although they've generally been way wide of the mark in predicting rainfall this past eighteen months or more). BBC weather for week ahead not quite got that far yet. Anyone looking to travel from outside the area might be better off waiting to play their seawatching card, but you never know: could pay off, as things stand.
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