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Bushfire - Australia

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Old Friday 17th January 2020, 07:01   #76
Chosun Juan
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Unhappy Control of Ferals is Now an Urgent matter of Life and Death for Native Animals

https://reclaimkosci.org.au/2020/01/...2siw-d1XfkY1Hg





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Old Friday 17th January 2020, 16:56   #77
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chosun Juan View Post
https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/www....bushfires/amp/

I don't really want to get into the nonsense of climate politics and the way that every celebrity and their dog have been jumping on these fires to push their own barrow. If we don't get to the true root causes then any solution will prove elusive. Some of these causes have yet to have widespread scientific research catch up to them. Some of the knowledge is esoteric - held by a culture that is actively suppressed in order to perpetuate the ongoing theft of land.

A curious article which really doesn't even mention many of the main factors responsible. A recent study found that climate change was not a factor.
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley....9/2018GL080959
Curiously, this same author found that it was a factor in the Amazon fires - rather incredulous when they were clearly as a result of a land grab. Multiple deliberately lit fires were merely the tool of this 'illegal' activity.

Logging, clearing, and the proliferation of dense shrubby regrowth that occurs is however a cause. As is the 'theft' of the country's water, the resultant destruction of wetlands and the moist soil sponge, and as is the erosion caused, and drying of the land. The other big factor is creeping urbanisation and the exponential growth of edge effects. These are not things I'm seeing reported very much at all. Chosun
You covered a lot of ground in these short paragraphs, CJ. Taking your last one, it's certainly the case that media coverage tends towards the more interesting or controversial, but much of that is due to the almost complete disappearance of correspondents with specialist knowledge or at least the ability to interpret it. However, only last week, the BBC News website had a lengthy article on how indigenous knowledge had been sidelined, and not just in Australia; it discussed many of the points you've been making, and criticised the wilful ignorance of doing so.

Now on to what you call 'a curious article'. It isn't at all curious, for it describes a set of metrics which the authors suggest is another useful tool to add to the armoury of research knowledge on the subject of fire ecology. Because it isn't claimed as a catch-all, it refers only to specifics relating to anthropegenic climatic impact of climate change: it's a way of refining our understanding of parts that previously seemed chaotic.

You say that the study found that climate change is not a factor in the fires in Australia. It did not find that at all. I've been through the paper, which contains much necessary technical information meningless to the lay person. What I found most pertinent was:

"For comparison, the multimodel median standard deviation calculated over the baseline period shows relatively high interannual variability in FWI metrics across portions of Australia which impede emergence based on a signal-to-noise ratio."

Put simply, that means that their set of metrics as they stand cannot be applied to Australia because the metrics are confounded by large year-on-year variability masking the ability of their system to distinguish 'signal' from background 'noise' in the data. The authors are pointing out the current limitations of their sytem, which is good science.

In the case of the Amazon, they found there is a low year-on-year variability (perhaps better described as a relatively stable dynamic system annually across the years), and so they were able to detect that their metrics could distinguish a signal. This does not assume that anthropogenic climate change was the main driver, only that their system could distinguish its contribution, even against all the deliberate fires. So, not curious at all.

I'm not accusing you of being underhand in any way in addressing the conclusions of this paper. I consider you are mistaken in your interpretation of the paper, which, to be fair, is not aimed at the general public.

Keep on posting!
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Old Saturday 18th January 2020, 04:33   #78
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Arrow

MJB, thanks for delving through the minutae of the signal to noise ratio. I did understand that this formed part of the basis for the author's conclusions, but given the wider assumptions and limitations, I wasn't being disingenuous or mistaken in what I said.

I know the authors stated limitations, but I meant "curious" only in terms of the models (and FWI system metrics) being limited by the assumpions used to arrive at the conclusions. Much of the science to quantify the exclusions/ blacked out unknowns/ simplifications/ oversights, and the linkages between them, does not yet exist - that doesn't mean that the knowledge is not known

Governance is a root cause on both continents in particular, yet this is not even quantified. There are a lot of variables in the system which are a lot more interdependent than they are being given credit (or analysis) for.

Media coverage is a big problem. A problem because of the way the whole mainstream industry uses psychological manipulations to suit a different agenda, and also because of the severe resource limitations of genuine independent journalists.

I only have to look for example at the work done by our national broadcaster (incredulous in itself that they are leading the charge with daylight back to the commercial services) to uncover the corruption and issues around water extraction, management, and environmental health, in this country. They are also the one's (completely different set of journalists) who have championed the pioneering (rediscovery) work of Peter Andrews and Natural Sequence Farming. Yet even with these good works, no-one is putting these two together with drought, with fire, with species threatened with extinction, with climate, with Indegenous dispossesion and suppression, with land use/ societal direction, and with governance. My view is that these factors are orders of magnitude more influential than the 'models' of reality being discussed. Plenty of research opportunity there .....

I know a lot of what I am trying to express (really I'm just dusting the tip of the iceberg of what is) is difficult to identify with or reconcile within existing paradigms. I appreciate folks endeavouring to follow, dipping a toe into the esoteric waters as much as they can manage (or even just a little beyond :) - we need every one we can reach if we are to turn this ship around.





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Old Saturday 18th January 2020, 06:23   #79
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Smile Rain !! :)

Rain !! Hallelujah !!

But some of it too intense leading to flash flooding of the denuded landscape,
Some of it in the wrong areas to extinguish all the fires,
Lightning thunderstorms even start some new fires - like in the beautiful Otway Ranges .....

https://amp.theguardian.com/australi...as-others-burn





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Old Saturday 18th January 2020, 17:11   #80
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Unhappy Bushfires: can ecosystems recover from such dramatic losses of biodiversity?

https://theconversation.com/bushfire...OkE2_Jr9xuP4Hc

Serious questions raised.

The heavy rain that has fallen in places is likely to cause massive erosion. Any erosion control works were too slow. So much soil being washed out into the oceans - expect sea levels to rise.
There needs to be an all out assault on feral animals.
I would like to see a moritorium on chemical use on agricultural, private and crown lands - sometimes they will be the only refugia for insect populations to recover from. Any weed issues amongst the regrowth will need to be dealt with manually.
The rape of the land must stop.
Good luck Australia - your gonna need it.






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Last edited by Chosun Juan : Saturday 18th January 2020 at 23:44.
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Old Sunday 19th January 2020, 00:11   #81
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Question We've already had countless bushfire inquiries -What good will it do to have another?

https://www.theland.com.au/story/658...PoS4sjM7Pq0V8I

57 Public inquiries already - and still sooooo little wisdom has come out. A lack of true understanding and duff policies. This is exactly why we need a Royal Commission ..... but will the limited 'Colonial' lens provide any clearer a picture ?





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Last edited by Chosun Juan : Sunday 19th January 2020 at 00:15. Reason: fit the title in .....
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Old Sunday 19th January 2020, 12:41   #82
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It's the trees fault..............

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-51132965

A for getting rid of ferals, I think CJ would include all non indiginous humans in that category.
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Old Monday 20th January 2020, 19:18   #83
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A highlight of our January around here is watching the Aussie Open.
So glad to see the rain this year! Normally that would be a bummer, but what a blessing this year.
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Old Tuesday 21st January 2020, 08:16   #84
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Exclamation

Quote:
Originally Posted by andyadcock View Post
It's the trees fault..............

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-51132965
......
Sometimes I think that Eucalypts go beyond just a superb adaptation to fire in the environment - and into the realms of something like the kamakaze ninja cannibals of the plant world !

Looking at distant mountains of Eucalyptus Forests shows a blue haze. This is from all the volatile oils the leaves give off. This protects them from insect attack - but it also makes fires roar through like a gas cloud explosion. Not only do the trees themselves explode in a ball of flame - but the entire surrounding air ahead of it does too. It's like Armageddon for everything else around ........





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Old Tuesday 21st January 2020, 08:39   #85
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Exclamation Vetinary advice for how to give water to animals seeking help.

** VERY IMPORTANT !! **

Several pictures have emerged of people giving water to surviving animals fleeing firegrounds - some people unintentionally doing more harm than good .....

Do NOT - pour water down an animals throat - this is like waterboarding it and can kill, as sadly has happened to at least 1 Koala.

DO - pour water into a shallow bowl, tray, or even your cupped hands and let the animal control it's own water intake

https://www.boredpanda.com/falling-w...d-kill-koalas/





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Old Tuesday 21st January 2020, 10:52   #86
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Lightbulb Epicormic Growth

Quote:
Originally Posted by andyadcock View Post
It's the trees fault..............

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-51132965
.......
Factsheet on 'Epicormic Growth' which is one of the mechanisms that Eucalypts (and other native fire adapted vegetation such as Banksias, Hakeas, etc) use to regenerate after fire .....

https://www.google.com.au/url?sa=t&s...Aj45ItBPT9I27g


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Old Tuesday 21st January 2020, 11:38   #87
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Lightbulb What fire regime works for one endangered species won't for another

There is no one size fits all solution - it's going to come down to caring for country .....
https://www.theland.com.au/story/658...jM5tFMrl5pNBcA






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Old Wednesday 22nd January 2020, 09:37   #88
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Lightbulb 'Little hope' of curbing catastrophic bushfires unless traditional knowledge utilised

https://www.sbs.com.au/nitv/article/...RxTlADSN5tqNlM




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Old Wednesday 22nd January 2020, 14:43   #89
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'Yuin woamn' (sic) and 'Bundjalung man', the people pictured in this article don't look like what I have in my mind as Australian Aborigines?
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Old Thursday 23rd January 2020, 03:51   #90
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Angry A burning question: Why was Australia’s government so ill-prepared for the bushfires?

https://www.economist.com/asia/2020/...7tH75LD7DllNGA

"Greg Mullins, the former fire commissioner of New South Wales, and other ex-chiefs warned authorities in April that extremely dry conditions in Eastern Australia were likely to lead to a very dangerous fire season. They wanted cash for water-bombing aircraft, but Mr Mullins says they were “fobbed off”."





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Old Thursday 23rd January 2020, 08:51   #91
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Unhappy Sad news - Three Americans dead after firefighting water bomber crashes

https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/amp....hnk/index.html





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Old Friday 24th January 2020, 09:56   #92
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Unhappy Bushfire debris turns Gippsland's Tambo River to sludge, suffocating eels

https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2020-...92Un5mQdizowRA





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Old Friday 24th January 2020, 10:33   #93
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Australia's bushfires contribute to record surge in global emissions: UK Met Office

https://www.sbs.com.au/news/australi...G7i6jLcN2Utrwc





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Old Friday 24th January 2020, 11:39   #94
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chosun Juan View Post
Obviously as an Australian you will be considering this to be yet another example of fake news, and the other facts/items reported as of negligible importance?

<add smiley>
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Old Saturday 25th January 2020, 05:14   #95
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Angry " Survival-by-respect or death-by-stupid: your choice Straya"

Quote:
Originally Posted by dantheman View Post
Obviously as an Australian you will be considering this to be yet another example of fake news, and the other facts/items reported as of negligible importance?

<add smiley>
That's far too narrow a view ....
It omits entirely the part where the Australian Government lit the fires (/kept them burning) .....

It's just a symptom of a far bigger issue:
https://www.smh.com.au/national/surv...U78PjReJmd6j_k


<add emoji of choice>




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Old Saturday 25th January 2020, 07:11   #96
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Unhappy Lyrebirds and forest owl populations decimated in bushfire crisis

https://www.theage.com.au/environmen...0DvVSspM2ckse4

Hollow dependent species will be hit especially hard .....





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Old Yesterday, 23:49   #97
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Exclamation

https://www.theguardian.com/environm...b4q0b2DdqqrPIQ

"Helene Marsh, chair of the national threatened species scientific committee and an emeritus professor of environmental science at James Cook University, said the scale of the ecological tragedy had made Australians more aware of the risks facing the country’s unique animals and plants and provided an opportunity to improve conservation.

With fires still burning, scientists warn it is too early to have a clear picture of the devastation, but preliminary government data suggests more than 100 threatened animal and plant species have lost at least half their habitat ...."


"Marsh said the threatened species committee planned to review the decision-making process for officially listing species as vulnerable or worsewithin the constraints of existing national environment laws. She said the protection offered to species after they were listed should also be reconsidered as the existing model of recovery planning had not worked. Fewer than 40% of nationally threatened species have recovery plans in place."

"An analysis by environment groups found the Coalition had cut funding for environmental programs, monitoring and staff by about 40% since being elected in 2013.

Marsh said changes would be needed to the national environment laws, the Environment Protection and Biodiversity and Protection Act, "







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Old Today, 10:04   #98
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A pink survivor:

https://www.theguardian.com/australi...ives-bushfires
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