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Upton Warren (52 Viewers)

Phil Andrews said:
... Golden Plover is the 83rd species for Upton Warren in 2012.
Click to expand...

I was about to correct you Phil (remembering back to my count through the temporary viewing slits of GPs with the Lapwings)... then I realised that although there was no hide, it was, in fact, last year! :-C

My how time flies when you have no hide... :C
 
Sy V said:
Erm, that could be today then folks... (unless in my very finite wisdom I've missed something - like the 4 days/year earlier figure having already been included in the regression analysis)! Which the more I think about it, the more I think it must have been... oh well - back to the beer. B :)
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Hi Sy,

The linear equation derived from the regression analysis gives the date of the most probable return (i.e. 12th Feb). However, there is an error factor which can be calculated from 'analysis of residuals'. The mean root square deviation from the regression line is 4 days and the standard error is just over 5 days. The sample size is still very small (9 data points) so the error bars are large. However, I'm pretty confident we'll see the first Avocet return within the next week or so. I'm looking forward to it.:t:
 
Dave

I see. Are you convinced that it's a linear relationship rather than a polynomial curve fit? Just a thought...
 
Sy V said:
Dave

I see. Are you convinced that it's a linear relationship rather than a polynomial curve fit? Just a thought...
Click to expand...


Most statistical models are based on the assumption of GLIM (General Linear Model). Just a cursory glance at the data suggests that it is linearly distributed. Fitting polynomials to the same data do not result in lower residual variance (i.e. higher R-squared value - the coefficient of determination). Therefore, in answer to your question, I am convinced that a linear fit is most suitable. Good question, though - cheers.
 
MOORS v FLASHES

After that Scientific interlude8-P of which I know nout, I'll move on.

Whilst the two distinct areas are all part of the 'mecca', I wonder how people feel about the two sides of the reserve.
My personal view is that prior to the creation of Amy's Marsh (1993), the Flashes was always my favourite. In those early days 1978 to 1989ish, I spent almost the whole of my weekday-off at the Flashes. Well certainly during passage times and the breeding season. Apart from the reed beds, the Moors was better during the winter months although in those days the main pool froze over much easier than at present.
However since Amy's and even more so in the last couple of years through attending the 'Tuesday crew', I have found a new affinity with the Moors. The intensive work there is now showing the Moors for what it is - a very underestimated, interesting and rewarding area for all sorts of wildlife. With more new plans afoot its true potential will soon be realised.
B :)John
 
My favourite by far is the flashes during summer and especially during passage times. Like you say, it's less interesting than the moors during the winter. The thought of spring without a hide on the flashes doesn't bear thinking about.
 
toadoftoadhall said:
Moors east hide in the mornings, Flashes afternoon, better light for viewing. My eyes arn't too good and need all the help I can get.
Click to expand...

I like the sailing pool with the swimmers, model boats, canoes, dinghys, climbing frames, campsite etc - always a case of what might be ......
 
Thanks for the data Phil, I was pretty sure there would be some correlation between the dates (thankful to Dave for working through it), I'm thinking that the Avo's will arrive by next saturday (18th). Although what they make of the work in progress is anybodys guess, let's hope they decide to stick around.
 
Dont push too hard or else the Trust will have to abandon the work and leave the completion till AFTER the breeding season! Lets hope they have cleared the site from all the rubbish in front of the hide.Disturbing a rare breeding bird, I wonder what the RSPB would have to say or the Wildlife crimes officer of the Local Police!
 
Best birds I have seen at
Flashes
Least Sandpiper
Black winged Stilt
Pec sand x5
Wilsons , red necked (loads) and grey Phals (2)
Arctic skua
gannet 3 flying south
Bluethroat
great northern diver
red backed and great grey shrike.
yellow browed warbler
firecrest
laughing gull
sabines gull (2)
montague's harrier

Moors
spotted crake (3)
purple heron
great white egret
savis warbler (2)
gannet
arctic skua

I am sure there are a few I have forgotten about
B :)John
 
upstarts1979 said:
Best birds I have seen at
Flashes
Least Sandpiper
Black winged Stilt
Pec sand x5
Wilsons , red necked (loads) and grey Phals (2)
Arctic skua
gannet 3 flying south
Bluethroat
great northern diver
red backed and great grey shrike.
yellow browed warbler
firecrest
laughing gull
sabines gull (2)
montague's harrier

Moors
spotted crake (3)
purple heron
great white egret
savis warbler (2)
gannet
arctic skua

I am sure there are a few I have forgotten about
B :)John
Click to expand...
Looks like the flashes wins hands down in terms of rarities you've seen, John. You've got a few there that I've not seen yet. The only bird I've seen that you haven't got, that I can think of, is Great Skua.......on the flashes.
 
Woodchat said:
Looks like the flashes wins hands down in terms of rarities you've seen, John. You've got a few there that I've not seen yet. The only bird I've seen that you haven't got, that I can think of, is Great Skua.......on the flashes.
Click to expand...

Also at Flashes
Shorelark
twite
bearded tits (lots in the old days)
spoonbill
spotted cake
blue winged teal (3)

Moors
Bearded tits (lots)
roseate tern
red rumped swallow

I suppose if I worked out how long I birded at the two sites, 80% of it would be at the Flashes, that is down to about 10% over the last 6 months.
Maybe with the creation of new habitat at the Moors I will notch up a few more goodies there.

Here are a few goodies that have been recorded at the MOORS
Bee-eater
hoopoe
rustic bunting
grey phal
sabines gull
red necked phal
pom skua
great grey and red backed shrike
alpine swift
honey buzzard
marsh warbler
 
Last edited:
Today's highlights where, but for a small area of the Moors Pool, everywhere was frozen.

MOORS:
Pochard (25)--------------------Tufted Duck (21)
Teal (6)--------------------------Shoveler (pr)
G C Grebe (1)-------------------Water Rail
Lapwing (30)--------------------Kestrel
Buzzard--------------------------L B B Gull (2)
Mute Swan (2)

RIVER SALWARPE:
Siskin (10)----------------------Golcrest (2)
Numerous thrushes feeding on Ivy berries.

FLASHES:
All hands on deck (hide).

Des.
 
upstarts1979 said:
Also at Flashes
Shorelark
twite
bearded tits (lots in the old days)
spoonbill
spotted cake
blue winged teal (3)

Moors
Bearded tits (lots)
roseate tern
red rumped swallow

I suppose if I worked out how long I birded at the two sites, 80% of it would be at the Flashes, that is down to about 10% over the last 6 months.
Maybe with the creation of new habitat at the Moors I will notch up a few more goodies there.

Here are a few goodies that have been recorded at the MOORS
Bee-eater
hoopoe
rustic bunting
grey phal
sabines gull
red necked phal
pom skua
great grey and red backed shrike
alpine swift
honey buzzard
marsh warbler
Click to expand...

Lmao at that, you and cake 8-P
 
Just to prove I'm an old timer. Moors- Savis and Male Red backed Shrike vs Flashes- Least Sand and BW Teal (Discors)
Close call but I think the Flashes has it for me with potential esp recent with Bluethroat, Sabines Shorelark Red Grey and Wilsons Phals
 
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