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How is the COVID virus affecting you?

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Old Thursday 2nd April 2020, 23:20   #226
tenex
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Not “somehow” but deliberately to cut down on the verbiage a bit. And besides: “nothing we can do totally avoids death”. Who needs their faces rubbed in that!
"Verbiage", "bloviator"... your hostility is your problem, not mine. As is trying to look at death without seeing it. It's brutal. But it's all on topic, and was likely to come eventually, in a thread titled "How is the COVID virus affecting you". So let's have it.

Yes, it's made me more immediately aware of mortality. I should have been anyway. Modern life lulls us.
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Old Friday 3rd April 2020, 01:05   #227
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"Verbiage", "bloviator"... your hostility is your problem, not mine. As is trying to look at death without seeing it. It's brutal. But it's all on topic, and was likely to come eventually, in a thread titled "How is the COVID virus affecting you". So let's have it.

Yes, it's made me more immediately aware of mortality. I should have been anyway. Modern life lulls us.
It’s your cavalier attitude towards the deaths of people currently under immediate threat from the virus that irks me and others, not your attitude towards your personal mortality or towards death in general, which as you’ve unnecessarily pointed out comes to us all eventually. Do you really not understand that? Or the extent to which such callously worded statements as a “modest number of dead people is acceptable to me” disincline people to read further? Or how irrelevant your experience with the kinds of “models” your “background in physics” has accustomed you to, must seem to those on the front lines of the struggle against the virus who must make do with whatever imperfect tools come to hand?

And, of course, we’re all uneasy. How could we not be in the face of a catastrophe with so many uncertainties and unknowables?
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Old Friday 3rd April 2020, 19:49   #228
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Just had a quick perusal of my GP surgery website where I usually book my appointments and there are none available at all, between now and June.
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Old Friday 3rd April 2020, 19:57   #229
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Personal provocations are clearly unwise at a hard time so I'm going to try to avoid involvement in any more of them. Each of us will handle crisis in their own personal way. Ideally we should also be able to discuss policy choices and the shape of the future we want people to live to see, but that doesn't seem to be working well, and events are now developing too rapidly to track or predict. Good luck to all, now and afterward.
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Old Friday 3rd April 2020, 20:57   #230
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Graphs of infections are bound to look sinister with a virus most of the population is expected to contract. Attention should be paid instead to hospitalizations and deaths.
It us interactive - you can filter for deaths

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You're right about the oddness of the title (Don't Believe The Models), the article's point seems to be quite the opposite. The author is a "writer" and "academic" not a scientist or doctor, and the argument she's making is the one I've been expecting and dreading to start hearing: the world is not going to end after all because people heeded the predictions of the models and took action, never mind whether they were remotely accurate or not. (She also seems confused as to whether we're trying to "stop" the spread, as many people are.)
The article is about interpreting models and does a decent job I think. I don't think the author makes any claims about the accuracy of any particular model at any particular time given any set of estimated parameters. It is just a half decent chat about what modelling means.
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Old Yesterday, 05:51   #231
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Part of the way this virus is affecting me is societal observation - how far have we come as a civilization, as a species.

Fear, judgement, exploitation, survival, kindness, care, generosity, science, politics, economics, tolerance, cooperation, love .... like some sort of grand novel, only with the unfortunate fact that some deaths will not just be part of the normal ebb and flow - remote numbers to try and grapple with (even though we know there are real lives and people involved) but may affect us personally, directly and most untimely. If we struggle to control anything else, let's at least be nice to one another.

I sincerely hope that all in the wider BF family manage to come through this unscathed. At times like this it matters not which side of the political coin we prefer, whether we see the bigger picture, or are puppets in a play, which team we go for, which tribe we belong to, cat lover, dog lover, or those who just prefer a fresh, clean smelling house - lol , coffee or tea drinkers, or something a little stronger, black or white, short or tall, rich or poor, straight or bent like a boomerang ...... we are all in this together - all very human.

Here is an interesting article on the Australian response with a focus on the political divide (closing of it), and juxtapositions to other ground shaking events in our recent past. A surprising story of tolerance and goodwill, and not just a little synchronicity ......
https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2020-...O9UBVqpZ8ZyYA8






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Old Yesterday, 06:33   #232
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[quote=Chosun Juan;3979989

If we struggle to control anything else, let's at least be nice to one another.

I sincerely hope that all in the wider BF family manage to come through this unscathed. At times like this it matters not which side of the political coin we prefer, whether we see the bigger picture, or are puppets in a play, which team we go for, which tribe we belong to, cat lover, dog lover, or those who just prefer a fresh, clean smelling house - lol , coffee or tea drinkers, or something a little stronger, black or white, short or tall, rich or poor, straight or bent like a boomerang ...... we are all in this together - all very human.

Chosun [/QUOTE]


Well said, CJ, well said.

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Old Yesterday, 07:31   #233
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I agree, not just ‘now’ and ‘at these times’ we should be ‘nice’ (whatever ‘nice’ means to different people) but at all times we should treat people and the things they say with respect - However, that also requires a tempering of language and views that are likely to be offensive and inflammatory to large numbers of people on the forum, especially to those who are more effected than others by the coronavirus. Reading back this thread from the beginning, (and other threads on the same topic) it’s easy to understand why some people have become upset and angry (often at the same people) and have simply dropped out of all these discussions on coronavirus to avoid exactly that - sadly the ones that seem most adept at avoiding conflict! This pandemic is effecting everyone in different countries very differently (depending on their government response) and to different degrees depending on a/ the severity of the outbreak in their immediate area and b/ how much their family and friends (and themselves, perhaps in a high risk/elderly group) are personally at risk. We should bear that in mind too I think - people aren’t saints!
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Old Yesterday, 16:12   #234
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Death rate in the UK as against those testing positive, is rather alarmingly at over 10%, that's higher than both Spain and Italy.
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Old Today, 07:46   #235
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Death rate in the UK as against those testing positive, is rather alarmingly at over 10%, that's higher than both Spain and Italy.
How many people have been tested, in what circumstances and in how many people have not been tested?

Percentages and figures can be viewed in many different ways. If the overall testing rate is low but you test all the dead people then your rate will be artificially high.

My friend, who had been to northern Italy and showed signs of the virus, went to hospital and was not tested. His travel companion felt he ill and it was serious enough to visit hospital three times with chest pains - not tested either.

There result is both are fine now but neither were tested...
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Old Today, 08:23   #236
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There result is both are fine now but neither were tested...
My best friend lives in an appartment block, shared lifts, shared doors to building, shared communal areas eg laundry, reception lounge etc. One person died, another returned recovered two weeks ago - no one else tested. Day before yesterday, 2 people on my friend’s corridor taken to hospital and tested positive, one critical - no one else in building tested. Yesterday, my friend now experiencing symptoms. Two weeks since first casualty- over 40 people living in building mostly over the age of 65, no deep clean after first casualty and no testing of other residents who are living in very close proximity to each other. The ‘tip of the iceberg’ may not be an adequate phrase ... but the percentage of people dying in intensive care ‘with’ c19 is apparently just over 50%
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Old Today, 08:36   #237
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How many people have been tested, in what circumstances and in how many people have not been tested?

Percentages and figures can be viewed in many different ways. If the overall testing rate is low but you test all the dead people then your rate will be artificially high.

My friend, who had been to northern Italy and showed signs of the virus, went to hospital and was not tested. His travel companion felt he ill and it was serious enough to visit hospital three times with chest pains - not tested either.

There result is both are fine now but neither were tested...
Total confirmed cases 41,903 and AFAIK, these will be people who are seriously symptomatic, of those, 4,313 have died.

The governmet does give a figure for how many people have been tested and the infection rate was somewhere between 1 in 4/5 that were positive for the infection.
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Old Today, 09:04   #238
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Total confirmed cases 41,903 and AFAIK, these will be people who are seriously symptomatic, of those, 4,313 have died.

The governmet does give a figure for how many people have been tested and the infection rate was somewhere between 1 in 4/5 that were positive for the infection.
So 1 in 4/5 tested are positive
40000 positive 4000 deaths

Best case
4000/200000 = 2%
Worst case
4000/160000 = 2.5%

This is still on the high side because uk are only testing those showing extreme symptoms.

You have to imagine that the actual figure of those dying is well below 1%...
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Old Today, 09:05   #239
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My best friend lives in an appartment block, shared lifts, shared doors to building, shared communal areas eg laundry, reception lounge etc. One person died, another returned recovered two weeks ago - no one else tested. Day before yesterday, 2 people on my friend’s corridor taken to hospital and tested positive, one critical - no one else in building tested. Yesterday, my friend now experiencing symptoms. Two weeks since first casualty- over 40 people living in building mostly over the age of 65, no deep clean after first casualty and no testing of other residents who are living in very close proximity to each other. The ‘tip of the iceberg’ may not be an adequate phrase ... but the percentage of people dying in intensive care ‘with’ c19 is apparently just over 50%
Let’s hope that these people come back safe...
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Old Today, 21:28   #240
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A wicked problem.
The virus replicates in the upper respiratory tract, so one is very infectious early on, even before one has significant symptoms.
The antibody tests are the most reliable, but only tell whether one has been infected after some days and do not show whether the individual is still infectious or cured.
So we won't know how to single out the most infectious carriers, even once we get a fast and reliable test.
The belief is that people who have survived the virus are immune, although that is still unproven.
Assuming it is true, one might anticipate the critical services using their immunes to help maintain these essential operations, such as sewers, water, power etc.
That still leaves the rest of the economy in collapse.
Martial law and rationing may be in the cards, given the ineffective response to date.
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Old Today, 21:41   #241
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Martial law and rationing may be in the cards, given the ineffective response to date.
Things must look pretty dire from within NY.
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