2016 - World Yearlist Record Attempt (1 Viewer)

[Paul Chapman]

It's interesting to me since I think I was one of the first to question if 7K was possible (most dismissed it at the time) that it now seems to be the target!

A

I certainly dismissed it at the time!

Leaving taxonomy to one side, on an IOC basis, currently 6,447, with eight more days to go in Mexico. He has 97 species left that Noah recorded there and then 36 species that Noah recorded in Jamaica.

So I reckon 6,560 before he leaves Mexico and 6,600 by the time he arrives in the USA.

He'll have about 180 Code 1 and 2 species in USA to chase that Noah recorded and about 100 other Code 1 and 2 species...... So it seems that he has a shot at 6,800 by the time he arrives in Japan.

eBird suggests maybe 80 probables for Japan, 40 probables from Taiwan and a further 60 probables from Vietnam which gets me to 6,980 but Arjan has always beaten what I expected.

All the best

 

[JustinJansen]

6471 and already he saw 133 species in Mexico.

 

[DanielDoer]

Arjan is now at 6.484 species:
http://world.observation.org/arjan.php

And has already almost seen the prediction for Mexico (150), but has still about a week to go there!

I am optimistic for his ambitious goal - as I always was...

 

[Paul Chapman]

He has 72 species left that Noah recorded in Mexico and then 36 species that Noah recorded in Jamaica.

So I still reckon 6,600 by the time he arrives in the USA.

He'll have 126 Code 1 species and 26 Code 2 species that Noah recorded in the USA to chase and about 100 other Code 1 and 2 species...... Some of those will actually be easier in Japan.

All the best

 

[DanielDoer]

...

He'll have 126 Code 1 species and 26 Code 2 species that Noah recorded in the USA to chase and about 100 other Code 1 and 2 species...... Some of those will actually be easier in Japan.

All the best

Why do you think that he just needs to see these coded bird species? Has he already seen all more common migrants or will he have seen them when arriving in US? Aren't there more widespread residents open when he gets there? I think a worldwide Big Year has very (!) different "rules" (or better: strategic necessarities) than one in the ABA region (where you surely need just such coded in the meaning of regionally rare species). Don't get me wrong, you could still be right with your prediction that he leaves the US with 6.800 species, but it could be easier for him to get there...

 

[Paul Chapman]

Why do you think that he just needs to see these coded bird species? Has he already seen all more common migrants or will he have seen them when arriving in US? Aren't there more widespread residents open when he gets there? I think a worldwide Big Year has very (!) different "rules" (or better: strategic necessarities) than one in the ABA region (where you surely need just such coded in the meaning of regionally rare species). Don't get me wrong, you could still be right with your prediction that he leaves the US with 6.800 species, but it could be easier for him to get there...

Daniel

The Codes refer to the likelihood of seeing a bird. Code 1 are widespread species and Code 2 are less widespread but regularly occurring species. So Code 1 and 2 species unseen so far define the likely pool of additions in the USA for Arjan. He may see a Code 3 or above - Noah saw two there - Five-striped Sparrow and California Condor - but he will not see more than a handful. I've not checked which species may not be available in December so the pool is more restricted.

I've then looked at species list for December on eBird for the other countries and checked them for the most likely ones that he will encounter in December that he has not yet seen.

I'll post those lists later.

All the best

 

[Nohatch]

Daniel
I've then looked at species list for December on eBird for the other countries and checked them for the most likely ones that he will encounter in December that he has not yet seen.

I'll post those lists later.

Are you taking into account the "observer bias" on eBird Paul? The coverage for Vietnam outside a few well-known hotspots is pretty poor for example.
Thanks for your efforts as always :t:

Joost

 

[Paul Chapman]

Are you taking into account the "observer bias" on eBird Paul? The coverage for Vietnam outside a few well-known hotspots is pretty poor for example.
Thanks for your efforts as always :t:

Joost

Joost

No. In short. I was very surprised however by the proportion of the Vietnam possibles that Arjan had seen. The largest starting number whittled down by number already seen and expected sightings in Japan and Taiwan.

I'll post the lists later and people can spot the obvious 'what abouts'....

They are on my home computer.

All the best

 

[lewis20126]

I've never been to Vietnam (or Laos) but know there only about 30 lifers there, so don't think it will be a hot bed of year ticks for Arjan, although he'll see some great birds.

cheers, alan

 

[DanielDoer]

Daniel

The Codes refer to the likelihood of seeing a bird. Code 1 are widespread species and Code 2 are less widespread but regularly occurring species. So Code 1 and 2 species unseen so far define the likely pool of additions in the USA for Arjan. He may see a Code 3 or above - ...
All the best

Oh I completely mixed it up, sorry! I thought you are talking about the species that are actually code 4 or 5! Now I am completely with you! OK almost completely: as Arjan has seen locally rare to very rare species (sometimes it wasn't even a new year species) he might have chances for code 3 or higher...

 

[James Eaton]

I've never been to Vietnam (or Laos) but know there only about 30 lifers there, so don't think it will be a hot bed of year ticks for Arjan, although he'll see some great birds.

cheers, alan

It's an interesting choice, hope he exceeds expectations with Vietnam, though the slow, time-consuming birding will make it tough going, perhaps a couple of days at Cat Tien, a single day in Dalat then couple of days in central Vietnam and a day at Tam Dao would be worthwhile (I certainly recommend skipping Cuc Phoung).
If he can link it with central/south-east China this would yield a higher number ( visa-free for three days in China I believe - two day dash round Sichuan!).
If there is still room to play with, a few days in Indonesia would easily hit 80 birds (single days on Flores, Timor, Buru - using overnight ferry so no time wasting with travel, and a day on Seram) - also here are lots of 'insurance birds ', so the list should rise over the years!!

James

 

[Paul Chapman]

Whilst not confident of total accuracy, these are the 72 species seen by Noah in Mexico that I have as not yet seen by Arjan:-

Also Code 1 USA:-
Northern Bobwhite
Vesper Sparrow
Curve-billed Thrasher
Canyon Wren
Western Scrub-Jay
American Robin
White-breasted Nuthatch
Dusky Flycatcher
Rufous-crowned Sparrow
Brown-headed Cowbird
Yellow-breasted Chat
Gila Woodpecker
Heermann's Gull
Wandering Tattler
Ring-billed Gull
Canyon Towhee
Western Bluebird
Say's Phoebe
Common Poorwill
Townsend's Solitaire
Pygmy Nuthatch
White-crowned Sparrow
Chihuahuan Raven
Western Meadowlark
Cassin's Sparrow
Greater Roadrunner
Scaled Quail
Black-throated Sparrow
Black-chinned Sparrow
Black-tailed Gnatcatcher
Colima Warbler

Also Code 2 USA:-
Broad-billed Hummingbird
Bridled Titmouse
Black Swift
Violet-crowned Hummingbird
Ridgway's Rail
Arizona Woodpecker
Northern Saw-whet Owl
Mexican Jay
Montezuma Quail
Long-billed Thrasher
Black-crested Titmouse

Neither Code 1 or 2 USA:-
Long-tailed Wood-Partridge
Flammulated Flycatcher
Pileated Flycatcher
Russet Nightingale-Thrush
Aztec Thrush
Sumichrast's Wren
Grey-headed Dove
Sinaloa Wren
Sinaloa Crow
Purplish-backed Jay
Black-throated Magpie-Jay
Elegant Quail
Rufous-bellied Chachalaca
Black-capped Gnatcatcher
Red-billed Tropicbird
Rusty-crowned Ground-Sparrow
White-naped Swift
Green-striped Brushfinch
Tufted Jay
Sinaloa Martin
Spotted Wren
San Blas Jay
Mexican Woodnymph
Striped Sparrow
Eared Quetzal
Black-backed Oriole
Crimson-collared Grosbeak
Worthen's Sparrow
Hooded Yellowthroat
Maroon-fronted Parrot

All the best

 

[Paul Chapman]

These are the 36 species that I have as seen by Noah in Jamaica but not yet by Arjan:-

Jamaican Crow
Jamaican Euphonia
Jamaican Oriole
Jamaican Spindalis
White-chinned Thrush
Jamaican Woodpecker
Jamaican Tody
Streamertail
Jamaican Owl
Yellow-shouldered Grassquit
Greater Antillean Bullfinch
Orangequit
Arrowhead Warbler
White-eyed Thrush
Rufous-throated Solitaire
Jamaican Vireo
Jamaican Becard
Rufous-tailed Flycatcher
Sad Flycatcher
Jamaican Pewee
Jamaican Elaenia
Yellow-billed Parrot
Black-billed Parrot
Vervain Hummingbird
Jamaican Mango
Chestnut-bellied Cuckoo
Crested Quail-Dove
Ring-tailed Pigeon
Plain Pigeon
White-tailed Tropicbird
Jamaican Blackbird
Blue Mountain Vireo
Greater Antillean Elaenia
Jamaican Lizard-Cuckoo
Northern Potoo
Stolid Flycatcher

All the best

 

[Paul Chapman]

These are the 154 species I have as seen by Noah in USA but not yet by Arjan:-

Code 1 - 126 species
Greater Scaup
Common Merganser
Harlequin Duck
Black Scoter
Pelagic Cormorant
Glaucous-winged Gull
Sandhill Crane
Cackling Goose
Pacific Loon
Rhinoceros Auklet
Snow Goose
Trumpeter Swan
Pine Warbler
Carolina Chickadee
Blue Jay
Pileated Woodpecker
Brown-headed Nuthatch
American Crow
Red-bellied Woodpecker
Chuck-will's-widow
Cedar Waxwing
Tufted Titmouse
Red-headed Woodpecker
Wood Duck
Red-shouldered Hawk
Common Grackle
Fish Crow
Mottled Duck
Boat-tailed Grackle
Seaside Sparrow
Marsh Wren
Clapper Rail
Field Sparrow
Scott's Oriole
Eastern Phoebe
Black-chinned Hummingbird
Verdin
Wild Turkey
Pyrrhuloxia
Eastern Screech-Owl
Redhead
Bald Eagle
Brown Thrasher
Downy Woodpecker
Anna's Hummingbird
Abert's Towhee
Gambel's Quail
Cactus Wren
Song Sparrow
California Gull
Lucy's Warbler
Phainopepla
Juniper Titmouse
Costa's Hummingbird
Western Screech-Owl
California Towhee
Wrentit
Oak Titmouse
Brewer's Blackbird
Bell's Sparrow
Ross's Goose
Clark's Grebe
American Goldfinch
Western Gull
Surf Scoter
Brandt's Cormorant
Bonaparte's Gull
Cassin's Auklet
Pigeon Guillemot
Black Oystercatcher
Nuttall's Woodpecker
Allen's Hummingbird
Western Grebe
Calliope Hummingbird
Mountain Quail
Cassin's Finch
Purple Finch
Fox Sparrow
Green-tailed Towhee
Mountain Chickadee
Dark-eyed Junco
White-headed Woodpecker
Red-breasted Sapsucker
Black Turnstone
Evening Grosbeak
Pacific Wren
Red-breasted Nuthatch
Chestnut-backed Chickadee
Black-capped Chickadee
Rufous Hummingbird
Lazuli Bunting
Gray Jay
Hooded Merganser
Virginia Rail
American Bittern
Varied Thrush
Marbled Murrelet
Tufted Puffin
Mountain Bluebird
Clark's Nutcracker
Pinyon Jay
Lewis's Woodpecker
Ferruginous Hawk
Sagebrush Sparrow
Brewer's Sparrow
Sage Thrasher
Prairie Falcon
Black-billed Magpie
Red-naped Sapsucker
Bufflehead
Canvasback
Williamson's Sapsucker
Barrow's Goldeneye
Ruffed Grouse
Veery
Barred Owl
Eastern Towhee
Bobolink
Upland Sandpiper
Swamp Sparrow
White-throated Sparrow
Winter Wren
Black-billed Cuckoo
American Black Duck
American Woodcock
Eastern Whip-poor-will

Code 2 - 26 species
Red-cockaded Woodpecker
Bachman's Sparrow
Swainson's Warbler
Piping Plover
Black-capped Vireo
Red-crowned Parrot
Le Conte's Thrasher
Bendire's Thrasher
Gray Vireo
Crissal Thrasher
Gilded Flicker
Lucifer Hummingbird
Elf Owl
Rufous-winged Sparrow
Spotted Owl
Flammulated Owl
Lawrence's Goldfinch
Tricolored Blackbird
California Thrasher
California Gnatcatcher
Yellow-billed Magpie
Sooty Grouse
Black-backed Woodpecker
Great Grey Owl
Yellow Rail
Henslow's Sparrow

Code 3+ - 2 species:-
California Condor
Five-striped Sparrow

All the best

 

[Paul Chapman]

Additional Code 1 and 2 species not seen by Noah during the year and not yet by Arjan:-

Code 1 - 36 species
American Pipit (also Japan)
Glaucous Gull (also Japan)
Black-legged Kittiwake (also Japan)
Black-footed Albatross (also Japan)
Common Redpoll (also Japan)
Thick-billed Murre (also Japan)
Northern Fulmar (also Japan)
Great Shearwater
Pink-footed Shearwater
Surfbird
Dickcissel
Golden-fronted Woodpecker
White-throated Swift
Pine Siskin
Alder Flycatcher
Chipping Sparrow
Atlantic Puffin
Rock Ptarmigan
Lapland Longspur
Cory's Shearwater
American Tree Sparrow
Audubon's Shearwater
Boreal Chickadee
Chestnut-collared Longspur
Golden-crowned Sparrow
Gray-crowned Rosy-Finch
Greater Sage-Grouse
Harris's Sparrow
Horned Puffin
Lark Bunting
Le Conte's Sparrow
Nelson's Sparrow
Northwestern Crow
Pine Grosbeak
Rusty Blackbird
Saltmarsh Sparrow
Willow Ptarmigan

Code 2 - 60 species:-
Laysan Albatross (also Japan)
Bohemian Waxwing (also Japan)
Red-faced Cormorant (also Japan)
Iceland Gull (also Japan)
Ancient Murrelet (also Japan)
Crested Auklet (also Japan)
South Polar Skua
Elegant Trogon
Northern Pygmy-Owl
Botteri's Sparrow
Aleutian Tern
American Three-toed Woodpecker
Ashy Storm-Petrel
Baird's Sparrow
Band-rumped Storm-Petrel
Bicknell's Thrush
Black Rosy-Finch
Black-capped Petrel
Boreal Owl
Bristle-thighed Curlew
Brown-capped Rosy-Finch
Connecticut Warbler
Dovekie
Dusky Grouse
Emperor Goose
Florida Scrub-Jay
Fork-tailed Storm-Petrel
Greater Prairie-Chicken
Gunnison Sage-Grouse
Gyrfalcon
Himalayan Snowcock
Hoary Redpoll
Island Scrub-Jay
King Eider
Kirtland's Warbler
Kittlitz's Murrelet
Least Auklet
Lesser Prairie-Chicken
McCown's Longspur
McKay's Bunting
Mottled Petrel
Mountain Plover
Northern Hawk Owl
Parakeet Auklet
Red-legged Kittiwake
Rock Sandpiper
Scripps's Murrelet
Sharp-tailed Grouse
Smith's Longspur
Snowy Owl
Sooty Tern
Sprague's Pipit
Spruce Grouse
Thayer's Gull
Whiskered Auklet
White-tailed Ptarmigan
White-winged Crossbill
Whooping Crane
Yellow-billed Loon
Yellow-footed Gull

All the best

 

[Paul Chapman]

In respect of Japan, in addition to those shared with USA, I have 96 targets from eBird in descending order of likelihood - the number is percentage checklists in December:-

Brown-eared Bulbul 49.05303
Eastern Spot-billed Duck 35.41667
Japanese White-eye 29.35606
Dusky Thrush 26.13636
Japanese Bush-Warbler 25.37879
Pale Thrush 21.9697
White-cheeked Starling 21.21212
Oriental Greenfinch 18.37121
Bull-headed Shrike 16.85606
Japanese Wagtail 15.90909
Pygmy Woodpecker 15.15152
Meadow Bunting 12.68939
Varied Tit 11.74242
Rustic Bunting 9.84848
Azure-winged Magpie 6.62879
Red-flanked Bluetail 6.06061
Black-tailed Gull 6.06061
Japanese Cormorant 5.87121
Slaty-backed Gull 5.49242
Light-vented Bulbul 4.92424
Long-tailed Rosefinch 4.73485
Brown-headed Thrush 4.35606
Yellow-throated Bunting 4.16667
Ryukyu Robin 3.97727
Gray Bunting 3.78788
Japanese Grosbeak 3.59848
Ryukyu Minivet 3.40909
Taiga Bean-Goose 3.2197
Mandarin Duck 3.0303
Hooded Crane 3.0303
White-naped Crane 2.84091
Black-faced Spoonbill 2.65152
Saunders's Gull 2.27273
Whistling Green-Pigeon 2.27273
Japanese Woodpecker 2.27273
Steller's Sea-Eagle 2.27273
Ruddy-breasted Crake 1.89394
Red-crowned Crane 1.89394
Long-billed Plover 1.89394
Japanese Accentor 1.89394
Japanese Wood-Pigeon 1.70455
Lidth's Jay 1.51515
Chinese Hwamei 1.32576
Okinawa Rail 1.32576
Naumann's Thrush 1.13636
White-bellied Pigeon 1.13636
Chinese Bamboo-Partridge 1.13636
Copper Pheasant 1.13636
Okinawa Woodpecker 1.13636
Ryukyu Scops-Owl 1.13636
Streaked Shearwater 1.13636
Chestnut-eared Bunting 0.94697
Daurian Jackdaw 0.94697
White-backed Woodpecker 0.75758
Chinese Penduline-Tit 0.75758
Short-tailed Albatross 0.75758
Swan Goose 0.56818
Blakiston's Fish-Owl 0.56818
Pallas's Rosefinch 0.56818
Red-billed Starling 0.37879
White-shouldered Starling 0.37879
Siberian Crane 0.37879
Asian Stubtail 0.37879
Scaly-sided Merganser 0.37879
Amami Woodcock 0.37879
Asian Rosy-Finch 0.37879
Izu Thrush 0.37879
Japanese Scops-Owl 0.37879
Long-billed Murrelet 0.37879
Owston's Tit 0.37879
Malayan Night-Heron 0.18939
Chinese Blackbird 0.18939
Eurasian Nutcracker 0.18939
Pallas's Bunting 0.18939
Japanese Quail 0.18939
Japanese Robin 0.18939
Japanese Waxwing 0.18939
Yellow Bunting 0.18939
Bonin Petrel 0.18939
Booted Warbler 0.18939
Demoiselle Crane 0.18939
Eurasian Dotterel 0.18939
Narcissus Flycatcher 0.18939
Ross's Gull 0.18939
Solitary Snipe 0.18939
Spectacled Guillemot 0.18939
Swinhoe's Rail 0.18939
Tristram's Storm-Petrel 0.18939
Ural Owl 0.18939
White's Thrush 0
Oriental Stork 0
Japanese Thrush 0
Crested Ibis 0
Ijima's Leaf-Warbler 0
Steller's Eider 0
Yellow-bellied Tit 0

All the best

 

[Vincent van der Spek]

It's an interesting choice, hope he exceeds expectations with Vietnam, though the slow, time-consuming birding will make it tough going, perhaps a couple of days at Cat Tien, a single day in Dalat then couple of days in central Vietnam and a day at Tam Dao would be worthwhile (I certainly recommend skipping Cuc Phoung).
If he can link it with central/south-east China this would yield a higher number ( visa-free for three days in China I believe - two day dash round Sichuan!).
If there is still room to play with, a few days in Indonesia would easily hit 80 birds (single days on Flores, Timor, Buru - using overnight ferry so no time wasting with travel, and a day on Seram) - also here are lots of 'insurance birds ', so the list should rise over the years!!

James

He's got 3,5 days in Vietnam. Inbound on the 28th to Ho Chi Minh, outbound flight to Holland on Jan the 1st also from Ho Chi Min. No internal flights booked, so it seems like he's staying in the south only. My guess: 2 days Cat Tien and 1,5 days Dalat.

After this year it's great that he's got a few places left where he's never been before like Sichuan and the Lesser Sundas, where he can still pick up a good number of lifers...

 

[Vincent van der Spek]

It's an interesting choice, hope he exceeds expectations with Vietnam, though the slow, time-consuming birding will make it tough going, perhaps a couple of days at Cat Tien, a single day in Dalat then couple of days in central Vietnam and a day at Tam Dao would be worthwhile (I certainly recommend skipping Cuc Phoung).
If he can link it with central/south-east China this would yield a higher number ( visa-free for three days in China I believe - two day dash round Sichuan!).
If there is still room to play with, a few days in Indonesia would easily hit 80 birds (single days on Flores, Timor, Buru - using overnight ferry so no time wasting with travel, and a day on Seram) - also here are lots of 'insurance birds ', so the list should rise over the years!!

James

He's got 3,5 days in Vietnam. Inbound flight on the 28th to Ho Chi Minh, outbound flight to Holland on Jan the 1st also from Ho Chi Min. No internal flights booked, so it seems like he's staying in the south only. My guess: 2 days Cat Tien and 1,5 days Dalat.

After this year it's great that he's got a few places left where he's never been before like Sichuan and the Lesser Sundas, where he can still pick up a good number of lifers...

 

[Paul Chapman]

In respect of Taiwan, I have 103 targets from eBird in descending order of likelihood - the number is percentage checklists in December - including 50 shared with Japan:-

Light-vented Bulbul 45.29524 (shared with Japan)
Japanese White-eye 30.24762 (shared with Japan)
Pale Thrush 21.25714 (shared with Japan)
Taiwan Barbet 15.42857
Taiwan Scimitar-Babbler 14.85714
Brown-headed Thrush 12.8 (shared with Japan)
Eastern Spot-billed Duck 12.68571 (shared with Japan)
Morrison's Fulvetta 11.04762
White-eared Sibia 9.52381
Black-necklaced Scimitar-Babbler 7.9619
Taiwan Yuhina 7.61905
Styan's Bulbul 6.85714
Steere's Liocichla 6.59048
Taiwan Bamboo-Partridge 6.59048
Dusky Thrush 6.32381 (shared with Japan)
Black-faced Spoonbill 6.32381 (shared with Japan)
Dusky Fulvetta 4.8381
Malayan Night-Heron 4.38095 (shared with Japan)
Taiwan Blue-Magpie 4.0381
Collared Bush-Robin 4
Vivid Niltava 3.88571
Taiwan Whistling-Thrush 3.73333
Collared Finchbill 3.61905
Red-billed Starling 2.97143 (shared with Japan)
Taiwan Partridge 2.81905
Yellow Tit 2.55238
White-whiskered Laughingthrush 2.51429
White-shouldered Starling 2.4 (shared with Japan)
Chinese Blackbird 2.3619 (shared with Japan)
Eurasian Nutcracker 2.28571 (shared with Japan)
Flamecrest 2.20952
Saunders's Gull 2.09524 (shared with Japan)
Naumann's Thrush 2.01905 (shared with Japan)
Manchurian Bush-Warbler 1.90476
Vinous-throated Parrotbill 1.82857
Taiwan Cupwing 1.79048
Taiwan Fulvetta 1.79048
Yellowish-bellied Bush-Warbler 1.79048
Collared Crow 1.71429
Oriental Greenfinch 1.67619 (shared with Japan)
White-bellied Pigeon 1.67619 (shared with Japan)
Red-flanked Bluetail 1.52381 (shared with Japan)
White's Thrush 1.52381 (shared with Japan)
Ashy Wood-Pigeon 1.52381
Taiwan Barwing 1.48571
Swinhoe's Pheasant 1.21905
Chestnut-bellied Tit 1.21905
Oriental Stork 1.10476 (shared with Japan)
Rusty Laughingthrush 1.10476
Ruddy-breasted Crake 1.06667 (shared with Japan)
Siberian Crane 1.06667 (shared with Japan)
Japanese Bush-Warbler 1.02857 (shared with Japan)
White-cheeked Starling 0.99048 (shared with Japan)
White-backed Woodpecker 0.99048 (shared with Japan)
Fork-tailed Sunbird 0.95238
Red-crowned Crane 0.8381 (shared with Japan)
Striated Prinia 0.8381
Yellow-billed Grosbeak 0.8381
Black-tailed Gull 0.72381 (shared with Japan)
Rustic Bunting 0.64762 (shared with Japan)
Chinese Hwamei 0.57143 (shared with Japan)
Taiwan Rosefinch 0.53333
Mandarin Duck 0.49524 (shared with Japan)
Rufous-crowned Laughingthrush 0.49524
Taiga Bean-Goose 0.41905 (shared with Japan)
Whistling Green-Pigeon 0.38095 (shared with Japan)
Mikado Pheasant 0.38095
Taiwan Bush-Warbler 0.38095
Golden Parrotbill 0.34286
Japanese Wagtail 0.30476 (shared with Japan)
Black-headed Bunting 0.30476
Japanese Thrush 0.26667 (shared with Japan)
Brown-eared Bulbul 0.22857 (shared with Japan)
Japanese Cormorant 0.22857 (shared with Japan)
Gray-backed Thrush 0.19048
Azure-winged Magpie 0.15238 (shared with Japan)
Yellow-throated Bunting 0.15238 (shared with Japan)
Chinese Penduline-Tit 0.15238 (shared with Japan)
Pallas's Bunting 0.15238 (shared with Japan)
Himalayan Owl 0.15238
Slaty-backed Gull 0.11429 (shared with Japan)
Long-billed Plover 0.11429 (shared with Japan)
Swan Goose 0.11429 (shared with Japan)
Japanese Quail 0.11429 (shared with Japan)
Yellow-browed Bunting 0.11429
Chestnut-eared Bunting 0.07619 (shared with Japan)
Asian Stubtail 0.07619 (shared with Japan)
Scaly-sided Merganser 0.07619 (shared with Japan)
Silver-backed Needletail 0.07619
Chestnut-cheeked Starling 0.07619
Chinese Grey Shrike 0.07619
Java Sparrow 0.07619
Little Curlew 0.07619
Bull-headed Shrike 0.0381 (shared with Japan)
Japanese Robin 0.0381 (shared with Japan)
Japanese Waxwing 0.0381 (shared with Japan)
Yellow Bunting 0.0381 (shared with Japan)
Taiwan Hwamei 0.0381
Vinous-breasted Starling 0.0381
Chestnut Bulbul 0.0381
Red-winged Laughingthrush 0.0381
Slaty-legged Crake 0.0381
Upland Buzzard 0.0381

All the best

 

[Paul Chapman]

In respect of Vietnam, 491 species already seen, and I have 103 targets from eBird in descending order of likelihood - the number is percentage checklists in December - including 25 shared with Japan and Taiwan:-

Kloss's Leaf-Warbler 12.19512
Indochinese Barbet 11.28049
Japanese Thrush 9.45122 (shared with Japan and Taiwan)
White-cheeked Laughingthrush 9.14634
Fork-tailed Sunbird 8.53659 (shared with Japan)
Japanese White-eye 7.92683 (shared with Japan and Taiwan)
Chinese Blackbird 7.92683 (shared with Japan and Taiwan)
Black-headed Sibia 7.62195
Red-vented Barbet 7.31707
Indochinese Cuckooshrike 7.0122
Vietnamese Greenfinch 6.70732
Red-flanked Bluetail 6.09756 (shared with Japan and Taiwan)
Slender-billed Oriole 4.87805
White-throated Rock-Thrush 4.87805
Bar-bellied Pitta 4.26829
Fujian Niltava 4.26829
Black-browed Fulvetta 3.35366
Dalat Shrike-babbler 3.35366
Green Peafowl 3.35366
White-winged Magpie 3.35366
White's Thrush 3.04878 (shared with Japan and Taiwan)
Vinous-breasted Starling 3.04878 (shared with Japan)
Black Baza 3.04878
Black-backed Swamphen 3.04878
Black-headed Parrotbill 3.04878
Vietnamese Cutia 3.04878
Clicking Shrike-babbler 2.7439
David's Fulvetta 2.7439
Gray-crowned Crocias 2.7439
Golden-crested Myna 2.13415
Orange-breasted Laughingthrush 2.13415
Scaly-crowned Babbler 2.13415
Yellow-billed Nuthatch 2.13415
Light-vented Bulbul 1.82927 (shared with Japan and Taiwan)
White-shouldered Starling 1.82927 (shared with Japan and Taiwan)
Asian Stubtail 1.82927 (shared with Japan and Taiwan)
Blue-rumped Pitta 1.82927
Black-hooded Laughingthrush 1.52439
Germain's Peacock-Pheasant 1.52439
Gray-faced Tit-Babbler 1.52439
Spot-necked Babbler 1.52439
Black-faced Spoonbill 1.21951 (shared with Japan and Taiwan)
Red-billed Starling 1.21951 (shared with Japan and Taiwan)
Chestnut Bulbul 1.21951 (shared with Japan)
Asian Golden Weaver 1.21951
Black-crowned Fulvetta 1.21951
Collared Laughingthrush 1.21951
Dusky Broadbill 1.21951
Gray Laughingthrush 1.21951
Gray-crowned Warbler 1.21951
Gray-backed Thrush 0.91463 (shared with Japan)
Rufous-tailed Robin 0.91463
Bar-backed Partridge 0.91463
Black-and-buff Woodpecker 0.91463
Black-chinned Yuhina 0.91463
Brown Prinia 0.91463
Changeable Hawk-Eagle 0.91463
Chinese Francolin 0.91463
Lanceolated Warbler 0.91463
Tristram's Bunting 0.91463
White-browed Fantail 0.91463
Dusky Thrush 0.60976 (shared with Japan and Taiwan)
Saunders's Gull 0.60976 (shared with Japan and Taiwan)
Silver-backed Needletail 0.60976 (shared with Japan)
Brown Bush-Warbler 0.60976
Chestnut Bunting 0.60976
Heart-spotted Woodpecker 0.60976
Indochinese Yuhina 0.60976
Limestone Leaf-Warbler 0.60976
Masked Laughingthrush 0.60976
Oriental Hobby 0.60976
Pale-footed Bush-Warbler 0.60976
Short-tailed Scimitar-Babbler 0.60976
Yellow-vented Pigeon 0.60976
Collared Finchbill 0.30488 (shared with Japan)
Oriental Greenfinch 0.30488 (shared with Japan and Taiwan)
Ruddy-breasted Crake 0.30488 (shared with Japan and Taiwan)
Japanese Bush-Warbler 0.30488 (shared with Japan and Taiwan)
Chinese Hwamei 0.30488 (shared with Japan and Taiwan)
Chestnut-eared Bunting 0.30488 (shared with Japan and Taiwan)
Black-headed Woodpecker 0.30488
Blunt-winged Warbler 0.30488
Burmese Nuthatch 0.30488
Common Woodshrike 0.30488
Crow-billed Drongo 0.30488
Daurian Starling 0.30488
Eared Pitta 0.30488
Gray-headed Parrotbill 0.30488
Indochinese Green-Magpie 0.30488
Pale-capped Pigeon 0.30488
Red-collared Woodpecker 0.30488
Russet Bush-Warbler 0.30488
Short-tailed Parrotbill 0.30488
Thick-billed Flowerpecker 0.30488
White-eared Night-Heron 0.30488
White-rumped Falcon 0.30488
Vinous-throated Parrotbill 0 (shared with Japan)
White-cheeked Starling 0 (shared with Japan and Taiwan)
Gray-hooded Fulvetta 0
Great Frigatebird 0
Pleske's Grasshopper-Warbler 0
Rosy Minivet 0
Tawny Fish-Owl 0

All the best