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Are bird numbers falling in Greece?
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<blockquote data-quote="MTem" data-source="post: 3594396" data-attributes="member: 107707"><p>Like Richard I can only commend the extensive observations in your memo, and like him I'm no expert on ERM, so the following are the comments of a scientist/engineer and general naturalist.</p><p>First it seems more extensive statistically significant data on bird population declines over the period concerned - pre 4G and post - are required. Random site visit reports will convince no one I'm sure.</p><p>Second, I think the biggest challenge is to look at all the things that have changed relevant to the areas and their avian populations before deciding it is ERM that is the cause, because if for no other reason you need to address the question "if 4G ERM is the cause why is this effect on bird population not being seen across all the areas where it is being introduced?". I live in SE England just south of London, and I'd guess that 4G signal strength is just as strong here as in the areas you mention, yet there is no suggestion from any quarter that I'm familiar with that similar trends are being seen here. At least none other than those impacting migrant birds mentioned above by Richard, and various avian diseases like the respiratory disease impacting Greenfinches recently. Some downward trends like House Sparrows seem to be reversing for example. The extensive BTO garden birdwatch data shows a mixture of upward and downward trends for resident birds over the relevant period for example. So why would 'Greek' 4G cause such a drastic decline if 'U.K.' 4G doesn't?</p><p></p><p>So for you concern to gain traction amongst any Government body I think you need more data and more rigorous causal analysis, not more anecdotes and inferential assumptions.</p><p></p><p>Have you shared your concerns with Birdlife International for example. Others might be able to suggest similar international bodies with access to sufficient breadth and depth of population trends, and be able to see if there is any international potential link to ERM and 4G in particular.</p><p></p><p>I am not seeking to rubbish or downplay your concern, merely to suggest that in a world now full of conspiracy theories and assertion based 'science', I think you will meet scepticism until you can broaden and validate your database and demonstrate fuller deductive reasoning. There may indeed be a real drastic decline in bird populations in the areas you visit, and also an insidious cause - but leaping to the conclusion it's 4G is premature because you have not considered all potential causes, nor have you explained why 4G is having this impact in these areas, but seemingly not elsewhere.</p><p></p><p>Mick</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="MTem, post: 3594396, member: 107707"] Like Richard I can only commend the extensive observations in your memo, and like him I'm no expert on ERM, so the following are the comments of a scientist/engineer and general naturalist. First it seems more extensive statistically significant data on bird population declines over the period concerned - pre 4G and post - are required. Random site visit reports will convince no one I'm sure. Second, I think the biggest challenge is to look at all the things that have changed relevant to the areas and their avian populations before deciding it is ERM that is the cause, because if for no other reason you need to address the question "if 4G ERM is the cause why is this effect on bird population not being seen across all the areas where it is being introduced?". I live in SE England just south of London, and I'd guess that 4G signal strength is just as strong here as in the areas you mention, yet there is no suggestion from any quarter that I'm familiar with that similar trends are being seen here. At least none other than those impacting migrant birds mentioned above by Richard, and various avian diseases like the respiratory disease impacting Greenfinches recently. Some downward trends like House Sparrows seem to be reversing for example. The extensive BTO garden birdwatch data shows a mixture of upward and downward trends for resident birds over the relevant period for example. So why would 'Greek' 4G cause such a drastic decline if 'U.K.' 4G doesn't? So for you concern to gain traction amongst any Government body I think you need more data and more rigorous causal analysis, not more anecdotes and inferential assumptions. Have you shared your concerns with Birdlife International for example. Others might be able to suggest similar international bodies with access to sufficient breadth and depth of population trends, and be able to see if there is any international potential link to ERM and 4G in particular. I am not seeking to rubbish or downplay your concern, merely to suggest that in a world now full of conspiracy theories and assertion based 'science', I think you will meet scepticism until you can broaden and validate your database and demonstrate fuller deductive reasoning. There may indeed be a real drastic decline in bird populations in the areas you visit, and also an insidious cause - but leaping to the conclusion it's 4G is premature because you have not considered all potential causes, nor have you explained why 4G is having this impact in these areas, but seemingly not elsewhere. Mick [/QUOTE]
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