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Canon 7D MkIII .... (1 Viewer)

Chosun Juan

Given to Fly
Australia - Aboriginal
Spot on James, as a regular at Premiership footy games I see that the vast majority of pro togs are using Canon gear and they all have "for sale" tags dangling on their kit bags.
Dave, I take it you're being fair dinkum - is that Canon bodies for sale? (switching to Sony), Lenses for sale? (to trade up to the new III series supertelephotos), or bodies and lenses for sale? (to go over to the dark side in preparation for the Nikon D6 arriving), or something else?

I think this rumored 80D/7DII -> 7DIII amalgamation signals the beginning of the end for some DSLR line future development (ie it will likely see increasing rationalisation to reign in development costs which will be increasingly harder to recover in a shrinking market), though I expect the FF DSLR Flagship to be the top offering for the next 3~5 years .... the life of the 1DX III -- there aren't even hints of native Mirrorless R mount supertelephotos.

Or do the Canon faithful (and those hardened by years of waiting for various things) have some other mail or thoughts ..... ? :cat:




Chosun :gh:
 
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Chosun Juan

Given to Fly
Australia - Aboriginal
Canon CEO expects ILC market to shrink 50% by 2020 to just 5-6M units

Straight from the horse's mouth, what a lot of folk have expected for a long time ..... strange that the CEO of the camera company with the biggest market share isn't talking up competitive strategies, but instead is hoisting the white flag ....... :cat:

https://m.dpreview.com/news/4115683...arket-to-shrink-50-by-2020-to-just-5-6m-units

Perhaps the forthcoming CaNikon 1DX III, 7D III (hopefully), and the D6, and D500S (hopefully) for the 2020 Olympics will be the last roll of the DSLR dice (mid life upgrade to hybrid EOVF, and computational processing ~5 odd years down the track, notwithstanding :)

The retreat to the high end has begun.

And yet it doesn't seem to be beyond the wit of man to reinvigorate the larger format/ longer lens camera imaging offering ....... even better AF tracking, and lighter, sharper supertelephotos (as evidenced by the Canon Mk III's and the Nikon PF's)

Add to that the smartphone equalling computational photography, ease of work flow and sharing for the high end, and the value proposition mirrorless entry/enthusiast level offerings. The only thing needed to crunch bigger computational files in real time is more processing power and high data rate flow architecture ...... all of which seems possible economically as Moore's Law of integrated circuit design and processing still seems to be holding true up to this point.

As even flagship DSLR /Mirrorless technology seems to be becoming commoditized perhaps a real CaNikon merger might be the thing that saves the traditional big two ..... ? :h?:

From an ecological, sustainability, and economic efficiency standpoint it seems strange that we have two brand new mirrorless mounts within a p**fteenth of each other dimension wise - imagine the benefits if they'd just collaborated with the one common size, and their two respective adapter specs ...... ? Maybe that could have helped stave off the smartphone zombie hordes ........ :cat:




Chosun :gh:
 

Chosun Juan

Given to Fly
Australia - Aboriginal
You've forgotten Japanese pride...
Yes, true, I remember an old competitive push program by Komatsu which translated into "encircle Caterpillar" (and not in a friendly way !)

The old Japanese MITI fostered an elaborate series of Keiretsu and Zaibatsu. Many disparate groups were thrown together to work cooperatively and strategically for the national good.

I am sure both Canon and Nikon have long term plans to carve out a profitable market space, but the frank admission by Canon's CEO was telling .....

As a sustainably lineaged citizen of an at times blinkered and finite world, I just find it rather shortsighted that Canon with its mirrorless R mount, and Nikon with its mirrorless Z mount would build two separate, incompatible, and virtually dimensionally identical systems as the basis of their future camera business. Surely there are bigger fish to fry for the people's of the world, and a common mount would have not only been efficient resource and sustainability wise, but removed one of the barriers to growing the market as a whole (the large capital outlay by consumers). Of course the dichotomy for these historical giants, is that such a move would also remove one of the barriers that keeps consumers locked into one particular company over the other! :cat:

Sometimes there are times when you just have to move with the times ......




Chosun :gh:
 

etudiant

Registered User
Supporter
As a sustainably lineaged citizen of an at times blinkered and finite world, I just find it rather shortsighted that Canon with its mirrorless R mount, and Nikon with its mirrorless Z mount would build two separate, incompatible, and virtually dimensionally identical systems as the basis of their future camera business. Surely there are bigger fish to fry for the people's of the world, and a common mount would have not only been efficient resource and sustainability wise, but removed one of the barriers to growing the market as a whole (the large capital outlay by consumers). Of course the dichotomy for these historical giants, is that such a move would also remove one of the barriers that keeps consumers locked into one particular company over the other! :cat:

Sometimes there are times when you just have to move with the times ......




Chosun :gh:

I'd be confident that this was seriously discussed by the firms involved.

How compatible such an agreement would be from an anti trust perspective with the survival of the other participants is one issue. The model, which does not exist in this space afaik, would be the electronics industry, where joint standards bodies hash out specifications for which the patents are licensed as required on a FRAND (Fair, Reasonable and Non Discriminatory) basis to all involved.

Perhaps the Japanese government should have provided guidance. Unfortunately, they did not.
 

Chosun Juan

Given to Fly
Australia - Aboriginal
I'd be confident that this was seriously discussed by the firms involved.

How compatible such an agreement would be from an anti trust perspective with the survival of the other participants is one issue. The model, which does not exist in this space afaik, would be the electronics industry, where joint standards bodies hash out specifications for which the patents are licensed as required on a FRAND (Fair, Reasonable and Non Discriminatory) basis to all involved.

Perhaps the Japanese government should have provided guidance. Unfortunately, they did not.
Etudiant,

It would be very! interesting to know whether the subject of a common Mirrorless mount was ever broached between Canon and Nikon. It would also be interesting to know how such a notion would have been broached - whether informally between Directors out on the golf course, or whether it was in more formal meetings under non-disclosure agreements.

It would also be interesting to know if this would even be possible under anti trust laws as you say, and how this would be viewed. Given the relative sizes of the companies and their competitors, Nikon could be swallowed whole by Canon with nary a hiccup in terms of the major players on the field. In much the same way that the m43 mount was created, perhaps a common 'RZ' mount would be more tolerable in the competitive landscape than a full merger or acquisition. I also don't think that a common 'RZ' mount would trample on too many m43 toes, and thus may very well pass any competitive law barriers.

Even if a full 'CaNikon' M&A did take place (the name has existed colloquially for some time! :), they would still be around the same size as Sony, and Panasonic, but also those '3' are well outsized by arguably the smartphone competitor parents - Samsung, and Apple.

Even though standards bodies and various standards exist in the electronics industry, often it is still a strategic battle to be on the winning side. Look at the history of Betamax, and the battle over various storage devices /formats. Broadcast /display resolutions with first HD, then 4K, and the emerging 8K have been far more successful in the efficient allocation of resources and this has been of huge benefit to the consumer.

I'm more than a bit sad that this opportunity for a common 'RZ' Mirrorless mount wasn't taken - it would have been a massive boon for the consumer, and would have let the industry more effectively address external threats. About the only saving grace is that the R and Z mounts are so close in size that third party lens manufacturers can pretty much just tweak a common design. This doesn't help Canon or Nikon Mirrorless customers use each other's lenses though .... what a delicious prospect that would have been! :cat:




Chosun :gh:
 

etudiant

Registered User
Supporter
Etudiant,

It would be very! interesting to know whether the subject of a common Mirrorless mount was ever broached between Canon and Nikon. It would also be interesting to know how such a notion would have been broached - whether informally between Directors out on the golf course, or whether it was in more formal meetings under non-disclosure agreements.....


I'm more than a bit sad that this opportunity for a common 'RZ' Mirrorless mount wasn't taken - it would have been a massive boon for the consumer, and would have let the industry more effectively address external threats. About the only saving grace is that the R and Z mounts are so close in size that third party lens manufacturers can pretty much just tweak a common design. This doesn't help Canon or Nikon Mirrorless customers use each other's lenses though .... what a delicious prospect that would have been! :cat:

Chosun :gh:

It may be simply that Nikon has too much to lose by opening its lens market.
Nikon is much smaller than Canon, so camera lenses are vastly more critical to their business.
With the Chinese in the wings, Nikon may see themselves as beleaguered, especially as their semiconductor industry optics business has lost ground with the emergence of EUV lithography.
Those concerns notwithstanding, one might still think that the camera industry really needs to rationalize their industry standards. Between the phones on the one hand and the Chinese on the other, the sector faces existential challenges. Yet the responses have been towards fragmentation rather than rationalization, as each firm pursues their own approach. Most likely there will be a crisis that results in a consolidation during the next serious recession.
 

Kevin Conville

yardbirder
Or do the Canon faithful (and those hardened by years of waiting for various things) have some other mail or thoughts ..... ? :cat:
:gh:

I have. It involves jumping ship to Nikon. And that's not something I've considered until recently

Canon has not delivered a path forward for me from a 7D and EF400 f5.6.
The 7DII wasn't good enough and the hypothetical 7DIII promises to not be enough. And Nikon's D500, for example, pretty well stomps a 7DII.

Canon refuses to do anything like Nikon's 200-500 and PF500 lenses.
The next jump up from my 400 would cost me a boatload of cash.

Hey Canon, if you're listening, not everyone makes a buck with their cameras and not all wildlife photographers want to spend five figures on a camera and lens and even if they did you don't make an APS body that's worthy.

Do I sound pissy today? Just frustrated.
 

Kevin Conville

yardbirder
I initially thought that was a joke. Sometimes I lose sight of the fact that Canon is a large company where beancounters have sway. Our little desires probably don’t account for much
 

Chosun Juan

Given to Fly
Australia - Aboriginal
I initially thought that was a joke. Sometimes I lose sight of the fact that Canon is a large company where beancounters have sway. Our little desires probably don’t account for much
Kevin, Unfortunately it's no joke .....

I can understand the thinking with the "cute" pink kids camera - a perfect match for Lady Penelope, Barbie, or Hello Kitty, and the aspirational link to the older Cos-play, and Harijuku Girls scene, etc - it's a very Japanese thing to do. Good strategy to entice brand loyalty right from an early age ...... BUT :-
1. It's already a crowded market with RRP of ~$25 ~$99 with a plethora of bright coloured plastic available - so hardly a great profit spinner ....
https://www.lifewire.com/best-kids-cameras-493410
https://www.google.com/search?tbm=i......0.0..0.0.0.......0...........5.ochJmLTBxfk
https://www.google.com/search?q=Har...hVTWH0KHXAADn0Q_AUoAXoECBQQAQ&biw=360&bih=615
2. Not at the expense of much needed developments,
ie. 7D MkIII !!! ...... and developments in Sensors, Eye-tracking AF, and IBIS, generally, etc

We can only hope that the delays on the 7D MkIII mean that Canon will come out with a true killer son of 1DX III .....

As you have said though, that may come too late to stop the defection of the frustrated over to Nikon with its D500 + PF 500 f5.6 option .....




Chosun :gh:
 
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etudiant

Registered User
Supporter
I initially thought that was a joke. Sometimes I lose sight of the fact that Canon is a large company where beancounters have sway. Our little desires probably don’t account for much

Cameras are only about 10% of revenues for Canon and their CEO has stated publicly that they expect sales to fall by 50% over the next few years, leaving open whether that means in units or in value. That suggests retrenchment.

This recent article in "The New Camera' suggest Canon is putting priority on mirrorless designs going forward:
http://thenewcamera.com/more-proof-canon-concentrating-on-mirrorless-camera/
Such a decision to focus the declining resources on the most promising segments seems plausible, but does not bode well for a 7D MIII in the near term.
 

Chosun Juan

Given to Fly
Australia - Aboriginal
Cameras are only about 10% of revenues for Canon and their CEO has stated publicly that they expect sales to fall by 50% over the next few years, leaving open whether that means in units or in value. That suggests retrenchment.

This recent article in "The New Camera' suggest Canon is putting priority on mirrorless designs going forward:
http://thenewcamera.com/more-proof-canon-concentrating-on-mirrorless-camera/
Such a decision to focus the declining resources on the most promising segments seems plausible, but does not bode well for a 7D MIII in the near term.
The crazy thing is that a 7D MkIII is probably the single most glaring omission in Canon's line up considering the age of the 7D II and the advancements made by most all it's competition.

The bold (to be so public) call by the Canon CEO to predict such a huge market (unit numbers) decline, indicates a big change for Canon in having to rationalize their highly diverse model array (the most micro niche plugging range of any manufacturer). Many of the competition are seeking refuge in high end product offerings.
http://thenewcamera.com/canon-to-cannibalize-dslr-mirrorless-camera-sales/

I think this might spell the end for the DSLR 5D range whose next incarnation will possibly be mirrorless (to compete with the Nikon Z8 due 2020/21?)

The flagship DSLR's from Canon and Nikon in FF and APS-C would seem to be safe for this next iteration (for use at the 2020 Olympics) while both companies get to grips with high speed mirrorless AF tracking to a level where they are confident enough to release them.

Certainly the need is there for a 7D III right now. The question in my mind is whether it will be released before the IDX III (and with CP+ just gone with pretty much only cute pink kids cameras to show for it .... I'm not filled with confidence! :) , at the same time, or even after the Olympics (and in the process dumping on their loyal customers from a great height) :brains:

It was rumoured to be due last year, and as such you'd have to think that a large portion of the development work is already done.





Chosun :gh:
 

Kevin Conville

yardbirder
I'm a little bummed out.
I've been using SLRs since I was a teenager, almost 50 years. One could always count on there being an improved body or a cool lens coming down the pike. That seems to be ending.

I have no optimism that I'll have a path forward in anything close to the near future, for the kind of photography I do. I feel a bit like the guy who's still holding film cameras after the digital gold rush came.

Switching to a mirrorless system has little appeal to me. I don't want to spend the money to replace what I have and the available equipment is far from mature and frankly I don't have time or the inclination to ride it's development wave.

I did think about jumping to Nikon for my birding outfit, a 500D and a PF500, but the same forces causing Canon to shift gears are influencing Nikon as well and that move might just be putting a finger in the dike, so to speak, at considerable cost to me.

No, the camera I want/need is the mythical 7DIII and that may never happen.
 
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njlarsen

Gallery Moderator
Opus Editor
Supporter
Barbados
I saw this today: Latest Canon presentation confirms their focus is now on Mirrorless (MirrorlessRumors).

Niels
 

Chosun Juan

Given to Fly
Australia - Aboriginal
I'm a little bummed out.
I've been using SLRs since I was a teenager, almost 50 years. One could always count on there being an improved body or a cool lens coming down the pike. That seems to be ending.

I have no optimism that I'll have a path forward in anything close to the near future, for the kind of photography I do. I feel a bit like the guy who's still holding film cameras after the digital gold rush came.

Switching to a mirrorless system has little appeal to me. I don't want to spend the money to replace what I have and the available equipment is far from mature and frankly I don't have time or the inclination to ride it's development wave.

I did think about jumping to Nikon for my birding outfit, a 500D and a PF500, but the same forces causing Canon to shift gears are influencing Nikon as well and that move might just be putting a finger in the dike, so to speak, at considerable cost to me.

No, the camera I want/need is the mythical 7DIII and that may never happen.
Kevin,

The rumour source in the link I posted said that 2020 (Olympics year) was going to be a big year for Canon releases (as it will be for Nikon). This means the Canon 1DX III / 7D III, and Nikon D6 /D500S .... neither company is sufficiently advanced in Mirrorless AF at the Pro level or has access to a commensurate high performance EVF to suit, that will meet their standards. Based on their initial offerings, that Pro Mirrorless journey is likely to take several years (Sony is already all in, so is Fujifilm APS-C, and Olympus MFT). So DSLR's will be the flagships for this next generation (most likely the last) , which should offer a good ~ half dozen years leading ~ ballpark performance .....

It was over 2 years ago that rumours of the 7D III were suggesting near announcement. A 2020 release would put the 7D II well over 5 years old ..... and getting whooped by the Nikon D500 for most of that.

Canon will of necessity be consolidating it's plethora of consumer and enthusiast DSLR lines, with the development time frames extending, perhaps eventually to a crawl as the Mirrorless transition takes over - it's pure economics. Nikon has given more of a clear assurance that the two formats (DSLR and Mirrorless mounts) will coexist as 'complimentary' ranges - though you could realistically expect the pace of development to slow there as well (glaring lens developments required for Nikon are to flesh the PF telephoto range out, and match the new lightweight Canon MkIII supertelephotos in 3, 400 f2.8, and 5, 600 f4).

Here's what Nikon have to say on the matter:
"For really high-level professional photographers at sports events and so on, I believe that the DSLR will survive. I think there will be a synergy between DSLR and mirrorless, so we can expand the market moving forward."
"I want to grow the Z series and D series at the same time - we’re not weighing one against the other."
https://m.dpreview.com/interviews/3...e-viewfinder-should-be-as-natural-as-possible

I'm not sure what other bits and bobs your kit consists of, but the Nikon D500+PF500 f5.6 would serve you well. The D500 won't be superceded in widely available numbers for at least ~18months. I also use the Tokina 12-28 f4 DX PRO on my D7200. As with the D500, the extra 1.3x in-camera crop allows a 35mm equivalent range of 18-56mm ... pretty handy as an all round wide angle to normal zoom. That 1.3x crop would also turn the PF500 f5.6 into a handy 1000mm eq f5.6 !! :D

I think the DX Mirrorless road is paved with confusion and indecision for both Canon and Nikon so I wouldn't be expecting any Pro level APS-C models from either company before about 2022 ....







Chosun :gh:
 

Kevin Conville

yardbirder
Chosen,

That's for that report. Somewhat reassuring, but I'm confused..

From your post:

"The rumour source in the link I posted said that 2020 (Olympics year) was going to be a big year for Canon releases (as it will be for Nikon). This means the Canon 1DX III / 7D III, and Nikon D6 /D500S"

"I think the DX Mirrorless road is paved with confusion and indecision for both Canon and Nikon so I wouldn't be expecting any Pro level APS-C models from either company before about 2022 ...."

Um, which is it do you think? I'm getting old.
 

Chosun Juan

Given to Fly
Australia - Aboriginal
Chosun,

That's for that report. Somewhat reassuring, but I'm confused..

From your post:

"The rumour source in the link I posted said that 2020 (Olympics year) was going to be a big year for Canon releases (as it will be for Nikon). This means the Canon 1DX III / 7D III, and Nikon D6 /D500S"

"I think the DX Mirrorless road is paved with confusion and indecision for both Canon and Nikon so I wouldn't be expecting any {Mirrorless} Pro level APS-C models from either company before about 2022 ...."

Um, which is it do you think? I'm getting old.
Kevin,

From what I can gather piecing the rumours together it's
DSLR 'Pro' flagships in 2020. FF for sure - Canon 1DX III and Nikon D6. And likely - based on need and history (and parts sharing economies of scale), their respective APS-C 'brothers' - Canon 7D III and Nikon D500S (probably both ~18months away on the streets). The Olympics will be a big driver - thank goodness !

The second sentence you quoted I was referring purely to Mirrorless DX. No Pro level Mirrorless CaNikons released until at least ~ 2022 would be my estimation.

I said DX Mirrorless is messy because both companies are still working through their strategies there .....

I know for myself and a lot of other enthusiasts/Pro's the beauty of the DSLR APS-C mount compatibility with DSLR FF means you can put FF lenses on them and get that all important extra ~1.5x or so reach. I like the Nikon's with the extra 1.3x in-camera crop too which ends up giving you 2x reach at about ~12~15 MP (the main benefit is in better AF, exposure, and an extra fps on my D7200). Given that I would almost certainly expect any eventual Pro level DX Mirrorless to use the big FF Mirrorless mounts (Canon R, and Nikon Z)

Canon has the APSC-M mount which offers small size and an existing lens catalogue .... however no upgrade path or interchangability through that mount to FF. I don't mind this, small size is the key. They can always offer a Pro level DX Mirrorless with an R mount later (a Mirrorless 7D if you like) - but that's a lot of years away.

Nikon would still be mulling the whole DX Mirrorless thing over. Certainly a Pro MDX with a Z mount, but will they make the entry level DX's in Z mount too? I suspect yes, but I'm not certain. It all depends on whether there is a significant weight penalty with the DX specific lenses - there are probably engineering solutions to this and the benefits of compatability and an upgrade path likely outweigh any weight/ size drawbacks for Nikon. They may surprise us with an entirely new small mount, but they are stretched resource-wise already (they talked about 24/7 operations and more automation even to deal with the current F and Z mounts going forward).

In some ways I think Canon has the better end of the Mirrorless DX stick because of the existing progress on the M mount - I'm sure they are happy for their customers to have to upgrade entirely !


If you did come over to the dark side (Nikon D500+PF500 f5.6) you'd have no FOMO worries for at least 18 months (before a D500S or 7D III hit the streets) and it should be good for half a dozen years before Mirrorless starts to show compelling gains. The lens would still be adaptable too. I believe there is news of the supply of PF500 f5.6 lenses flowing again too, so I'd jump in quick :)




Chosun :gh:
 

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