There are no tests giving false positives 30% of the time. False negatives maybe. It’s impossible to accurately gauge false positive and false negative rates due to the lack of a gold standard test to compare against. However during the period of lowest transmission (late June) about 0.4% of “NHS” tests were positive. So that’s the absolute ceiling to the false positive rate (assuming there were no true positives at that time). In the same period the ONS community survey had a positivity rate of 0.05% using the same method. Current positivity rate of NHS tests is about 7%. So as an experienced interpreter of virus PCR tests I would estimate that the vast majority of positive test results at the moment are legitimate (certainly >90% probably >99%)
Cheers
James
There are no tests giving false positives 30% of the time. False negatives maybe. It’s impossible to accurately gauge false positive and false negative rates due to the lack of a gold standard test to compare against. However during the period of lowest transmission (late June) about 0.4% of “NHS” tests were positive. So that’s the absolute ceiling to the false positive rate (assuming there were no true positives at that time). In the same period the ONS community survey had a positivity rate of 0.05% using the same method. Current positivity rate of NHS tests is about 7%. So as an experienced interpreter of virus PCR tests I would estimate that the vast majority of positive test results at the moment are legitimate (certainly >90% probably >99%)
Cheers
James
Although the test itself is not the only reason there might be a false positive. If you were a lab expected to churn out a certain number of tests per day and you couldn't cope, the safest thing to do would be to not complete the tests and just report a positive result.
One reason why we might be seeing a high rise in positive results without the same level of deaths as earlier in the year...
Unless you have concrete evidence, this is straight out conspiracy theory.
I don't know how to explain the results of the tests. Either the tests are wrong, or the people doing the tests aren't doing them properly.
One reason why we might be seeing a high rise in positive results without the same level of deaths as earlier in the year...
Why would that be so?
Oh, you mean because of the anecdotal story you presented before? People with mild symptoms may have only a small amount of virus that's hard to detect and/or quickly cleared by the immune system, hence the lack of symptoms. Still doesn't guarantee they are not infectious There can be a small fraction of false positives, but tiny, as explained thoroughly above. Even if it's small, it can just happen that you witnessed a case, someone has to.
In the absence of actual evidence, you are just spreading wild nonsense that serves nothing but to undermine the public trust in the tests and epidemioligical measures.
No, I'm expressing my own lack of trust on a public forum in relation to concerns over travel and why I would choose not to do so right now.
Please moderate your tone when addressing me directly, you are very impolite.
You are spreading dangerous propaganda, I don't give a damn that you think I am "impolite" lol.
Back (more or less) on topic, is there much point in travel restrictions between countries, when travel within countries is essentially not being restricted? And it is everywhere, anyway?
(I can understand it with vulnerable communities which are otherwise being protected, or a few island nations which are or are trying to be, covid free.)
Although the test itself is not the only reason there might be a false positive. If you were a lab expected to churn out a certain number of tests per day and you couldn't cope, the safest thing to do would be to not complete the tests and just report a positive result.
One reason why we might be seeing a high rise in positive results without the same level of deaths as earlier in the year...
Or the lizard men are hacking into the PCR machines?
Spain did, or tried to, open up to tourism as soon as it could after its own heavy lockdown after the first wave iirc.
That recent Ireland rarity thread exposed the issue - but the number of new cases per head of population is currently comparable to the UK. So all rather a moot point unless travel was heavily restricted within Ireland itself.
Moving further afield (intercontinental) with sensible precautions being taken, and large numbers of people travelling for non-tourism purposes ecotourists, if they take sensible (and people now know what is sensible) precautions ...
Of course, if it's all about trying to reduce possible frivolous interactions/travel as part of a wider plan then it makes sense, but it does all seem a bit like trying to close the door after the horse has bolted ..
Deaths follow cases by a couple of weeks anyway. In the first round/wave a lot of elderly/infirm folk who caught it in old people's homes etc and a lack of ppe in hospitals etc caused disproportionate death tolls. All incredibly sad and even with foresight preventable to a large degree (we even predicted it here on BF).
Think I read that Netherlands have started sending patients to Germany as they have reached capacity and situation is going to get worse all over Europe.
Obviously there is more testing and more asymptomatic people are being caught than first time around, but that doesn't take away from the fact that a second wave is occurring right now.
No need. The sheeples are already subservient and accept everything at face value.