Ah I see, the limiting factor is (currently) winter food. That makes sense (I note that a recent Belgian study (Invasive ring-necked parakeets Psittacula krameri in Belgium: habitat selection and impact on native birds Strubbe & Mattyson; Ecography 30) states that "Parakeet numbers were also strongly associated with cavity density, suggesting that this may be a limiting factor." though).
I've had a very brief look through Web of Knowledge & didn't find any research published on RNP since Pithon & Dytham's work up to 1998. Does anyone know if there any more recent studies carried out to see if winter food is still a (the) limiting factor - particularly if winters start getting milder?
Oh, and a more 'birdy' climate change/evolution paper to check out:
Influence of climate change on the abundance, distribution and phenology of woodland bird species in temperate regions Leech & Crick; Ibis 149
"This review focuses on the impacts, both observed and potential, of climate change on birds breeding in temperate woodlands of the Western Palaearctic, a significant proportion of which are currently declining. Changes in ambient temperatures and patterns of precipitation may have direct and indirect effects on the survival rates and productivity of bird species, thus influencing population sizes. For some species or populations, the timing of events such as egg-laying and return from the wintering grounds is also changing in relation to shifts in the peak of food availability during the breeding season. The degree to which different individuals are able to track these temporal changes will have a significant bearing on population sizes and distributions in the future. Unless active management steps are taken, the relatively low dispersal rates of tree species may lead to a decrease in the total area of some woodland habitat types as losses at the southern edge of the range are likely to occur much more quickly than expansion at the northern edge. In addition, the dispersal rates of many woodland birds are themselves low, which could affect their ability to move to new habitat patches if currently occupied areas become unsuitable. Thus, woodland birds may be particularly susceptible to the impacts of climate change."