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Message: <blockquote data-quote="johnraven" data-source="post: 1581317" data-attributes="member: 14963">Using wunderground.com data on historic daily weather conditions, I've had a go at quantifying some of this.  Basically I've regressed the daily number of 'first records' of 'scarce and rarer' species in East Anglia, for each September 2004-2008 (Birdguides data) on weather conditions.  I've excluded Honey Buzzard (too many) and seabirds (need different winds).The results are pleasing from a statistical point of view, and mostly match expectations.  Interesting results include:(1) The wind direction in Copenhagen is a more powerful predictor of scarce birds in East Anglia than the wind direction in East Anglia itself.(2) The best wind conditions are Easterly in Copenhagen and North Easterly in East Anglia.  Conditions build up over three days - so three days of NE in a row is better than two days.(3) Low pressure and rain are both good.(4) Weekends see a big increase in scarce+ finds, particularly if the winds are from the east (presumably that attracts more birders).Nothing that surprising - except perhaps the Copenhagen thing.I've used this statistical model to predict scarce finds over the next few days:Monday = 4 (Actual)Tuesday = 5 (Actual)Wednesday = 3 (Prediction)Thursday = 4 (Prediction)Friday = 6 (Prediction)Saturday = 12 (Prediction)So the model says no real increase until Saturday, which will be moderately good (a real monster day would see 20+ first records).John</blockquote>

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