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Message: <blockquote data-quote="johnraven" data-source="post: 1581390" data-attributes="member: 14963">I've extended it.  The model predicts 13 for Sunday, so slightly better.This just for East Anglia, btw.  There have been two Scarce+ finds so far today.The model explains 60% of the variation in the number of finds, which isnt bad, although clearly there is a lot of unexplained variation.  One should expect that, of course.This chart shows how well the model performs on past data, showing the predicted number of finds versus the actual number of finds, for the 5 years of data I've used.  This is an "in sample" prediction.</blockquote>