BirdForum is the net's largest birding community dedicated to wild birds and birding, and is absolutely FREE!

Register for an account to take part in lively discussions in the forum, post your pictures in the gallery and more.

Reply to thread

Message: <blockquote data-quote="dbradnum" data-source="post: 1581609" data-attributes="member: 6157">Out of interest, what are the five new rarities you're referring to today?  What proportion of the records in general are flypast seabirds? I wonder if running two separate regressions for seabirds and passerines (or just non-seabirds) would give interesting results - might expect the arrival / detection pattern to be different? I agree that Amsterdam is a bit close as well - probably too similar to wind direction over the East Anglian coast. I'd choose Bergen over Oslo for a more northerly dimension with respect to East Anglia (would expect Copenhagen and Oslo to be pretty similar). For the 'further east' dimension, maybe try one of St Petersburg / Tallinn / Helsinki - not too far away, but still the potential source of plenty of good birds! Hard to know whether a central Europe wind vector would be significant, but perhaps choices like Frankfurt or Munich could be options to try.  As regards wind speed in East Anglia, I wonder whether there is a time-lagged relationship. For instance, if it's a howling north-easterly, then many good birds (typically small passerines) are harder to find (and identify) even though they may be arriving in droves. However, if you had those conditions on a Thursday or Friday, and then lessening wind speed over the next two days, the prospects would be very good for the weekend. I've been meaning to buy ><a href="http://www.amazon.co.uk/Weather-Bird-Behaviour-Poyser-Monographs/dp/0713668253" target="_blank">this Poyser book</a>< on birds and weather for some time - no doubt it would shed some light on the topic and suggest some other variables. Might have to get the credit card out...</blockquote>

Verification