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<blockquote data-quote="johnraven" data-source="post: 1583290" data-attributes="member: 14963"><p>We've had a bit more turn up - there were 7 scarce+ records in EA yesterday, inc two Ickys.</p><p></p><p>I've re-estimated the statistical model, now using the right function form (Poisson regression) and now with October data.</p><p>- there is a clear underlying peak in records in late Sep/early Oct</p><p>- SE winds are good in October (they are no use in September, apparently). Reverse migration?</p><p>- rain is now explicitly included</p><p></p><p>So the new forecasts are:</p><p>Today - 5</p><p>Saturday - 9</p><p>Sunday - 8</p><p>Monday - 7</p><p>Tuesday - 12</p><p>Wednesday - 11</p><p>Thursday - 13</p><p></p><p>The sharp up-turn next week is due to easterly winds over Copenhagen (which I use as my proxy for the source). Fairly brisk NE winds today are the main driver of the forecast upturn tomorrow, although 9 is fairly moderate for a weekend in mid-September. On the other hand, 13 for Thursday is reasonably 'monster'.</p><p>John</p><p></p><p>[Edited to correct calculation mistake]</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="johnraven, post: 1583290, member: 14963"] We've had a bit more turn up - there were 7 scarce+ records in EA yesterday, inc two Ickys. I've re-estimated the statistical model, now using the right function form (Poisson regression) and now with October data. - there is a clear underlying peak in records in late Sep/early Oct - SE winds are good in October (they are no use in September, apparently). Reverse migration? - rain is now explicitly included So the new forecasts are: Today - 5 Saturday - 9 Sunday - 8 Monday - 7 Tuesday - 12 Wednesday - 11 Thursday - 13 The sharp up-turn next week is due to easterly winds over Copenhagen (which I use as my proxy for the source). Fairly brisk NE winds today are the main driver of the forecast upturn tomorrow, although 9 is fairly moderate for a weekend in mid-September. On the other hand, 13 for Thursday is reasonably 'monster'. John [Edited to correct calculation mistake] [/QUOTE]
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