timeshadowed
Time is a Shadow
So now what happens to the 'pretty picie' since the reserve price was not met??
dafi said:I an a total newcomer to this thread but have dived in to it here and there finding it both funny and entrenched on both sides of the devide. The one thing i cant seem to find is the physical evidence. is there any at all? Can anybody put us on to a photo of the woodie or an athenticated audio recording ? Pardon my naievity im just curious to find out if its out there.
dafi said:I an a total newcomer to this thread but have dived in to it here and there finding it both funny and entrenched on both sides of the devide. The one thing i cant seem to find is the physical evidence. is there any at all? Can anybody put us on to a photo of the woodie or an athenticated audio recording ? Pardon my naievity im just curious to find out if its out there.
salar53 said:I'm also curious, Dafi, and so are countless others. Perhaps this will give you a flavour of what is happening day on day.
Just recently, in fact the closing date was 12th March, someone on Ebay called JK1bic was attempting to sell a recent photograph of what he claimed to be a "rare juvenile Ivory-billed Woodpecker". I wrote off for further information -as you do - and got the following reply.
Wow! Ireland, huh? That would make inspecting the photo prior to purchasing a bit difficult but I would imagine we could have worked something out--I just don't know what. If the photographer's reserve had been met and the photograph was accepted by the winning bidder, than all rights would go with the photograph. Yes, the photographer realized what he was taking a picture of--that was the 3rd time he had seen the bird. Don't want to release any info about the reserve until or unless the photographer chooses not to re-list. Thanks for taking the time to ask a few questions.
And there you have it - another little puzzle in this fascinating litany of mysteries.
Russ Jones said:This is obviously a scam. Isn't there a reward for a definitive photo? Somewhere in the order of $10,000 I believe it was.
Russ
Russ Jones said:This is obviously a scam. Isn't there a reward for a definitive photo? Somewhere in the order of $10,000 I believe it was.
Russ
cyberthrush said:well no, personal belief, no matter how strong is not 'proof' to the scientific community (I suspect we all have things we absolutely believe, but know we can't prove scientifically) -- in this specific case, Hill was well aware that without the current standard of photographic evidence he couldn't call his findings proven even though he and team members ARE 100% convinced (especially after watching what Cornell has gone thru). I may believe humans likely evolved on this Earth and there's a lot of evidence for it, but I would never claim I could prove that either.
it's just the difference between feeling free to speak one's mind in a book for the masses versus using more rigorous academic language for a much narrower audience; nothing peculiar in that I don't believe. The famous Watson/Crick paper is a masterpiece (I think) of succinct scientific writing, but James Watson's popular book "The Double Helix" was written in a very different style.
I like to see all possible evidence put forth as backup to their case, but no, by itself I'm not a huge fan of audio evidence, foraging sign, or any other evidence other than sightings from credible observers (under some circumstances DNA might be useful, but that too gets tricky). In fact I'm waiting to hear back from Geoff right now about a small audio question that's troubling to me (nothing major, just irksome).
Ilya Maclean said:I tend to agree, but it does concern me that there is such a disparity. think the primary reason for the greatly diverging conclusions of his paper and book has a lot more to do with peer-review than intended audience. I can say what he likes in a book, but scientific papers are subject to a rigorous peer-review process where statements generally need to be backed up with evidence.
To illustrate this point, consider his estimate of 10 pairs. Any avian ecologist or reasonably logical person could deduce that this is nothing but a wild guess. I haven’t read the book, but I presume (do correct me if I’m wrong) the estimate is based on the a handful of sightings (which range from unlikely to plausible - no means of verifying whether the same birds are involved), audio recordings, scalings and cavities (many of which are likely not to be of IBWOS and in any case would not provide a population estimate). He has not carried out any systematic sampling (point-counts, line-transects, mark-release-recapture, territory mapping etc. etc.). Lets not forget that whether the population is in excess of zero is still disputed by a large section of the scientific and birding community.
Whilst he is entitled to present anything he likes in a book (there are after all great works of fiction), I think it’s irresponsible for a scientist to present guesses as estimates, likelihoods as fact and so forth and don’t believe it helps his cause. Whilst I personally believe the IBWO to be extinct I am certainly open to the possibility that it is not. What makes me a sceptic above all else is the consistent way in which the case for IBWO persistence has been exaggerated. Unlikely sightings are presented as promising (fleeting views from a moving vehicle by a non-birder) and promising sightings are presented as definitive evidence (Cornell, Cinclodes and now Hill). If evidence can be presented in such a way, one tends to question whether the actual evidence itself has been similar exaggerated. If someone is capable of presenting a blurry low-resolution image as definitive proof, one has to question whether their accounts of sightings are indeed as clear-cut as they would like us to believe.
IBWO_Agnostic said:When will any of the major players in this saga have the guts to say this:
"A" cavities, foraging signs, kent calls, and double knocks can all be made by other species besides Ivory-billed Woodpeckers. While we like to see big holes, stripped tight bark, and like to hear kents (maybe by jays) and double knocks we cannot use these pieces of evidence to estimate population size or presence of Ivory-billed Woodpeckers.
IBWO_Agnostic said:When will any of the major players in this saga have the guts to say this:
"A" cavities, foraging signs, kent calls, and double knocks can all be made by other species besides Ivory-billed Woodpeckers. While we like to see big holes, stripped tight bark, and like to hear kents (maybe by jays) and double knocks we cannot use these pieces of evidence to estimate population size or presence of Ivory-billed Woodpeckers.
IBWO_Agnostic said:When will any of the major players in this saga have the guts to say this:
"A" cavities, foraging signs, kent calls, and double knocks can all be made by other species besides Ivory-billed Woodpeckers. While we like to see big holes, stripped tight bark, and like to hear kents (maybe by jays) and double knocks we cannot use these pieces of evidence to estimate population size or presence of Ivory-billed Woodpeckers.
Sounds that resemble Ivory-billed Woodpecker kent calls are produced by Red-breasted Nuthatches (Sitta canadensis), White-breasted Nuthatches (Sitta carolinensis), gray squirrels (Sciurus carolinensis), and Blue Jays (Cyanocitta cristata) (Jackson 2002, Tanner 1942), and may also be produced by Great Blue Herons (Ardea herodias) (R. Charif, pers. comm.).
timeshadowed said:I believe that the $10,000 reward was only offered if the bird were found in ARK and had strings attached - nest site must be located in ARK and revealed to ARK Wildlife Service, etc.
choupique1 said:a good duck spot or deer spot.. is worth significantly more than 10k
Tim Allwood said:Writing a book will not make one IBWO exist
or add any evidence
find a bird
or stop
now
T.