Even less of a certainty is bird (or indeed wildlife ) photography because you not only have to see the subject, but capture a meaningful photo of it.
There has been a clampdown recently on obviously staged photos, for example, using a fish tank with a backdrop, or submerging a dustbin lid with minnows inside as a kingfisher lure.
Regarding non sightings, I use various sources such as fellow birdwatchers, Facebook, the Dorset wildlife trust, online sites, the local paper and so on. I stick to my local patch and the Purbecks. The best has been the grey phalarope, which was completely unfazed by several birdwatchers and photographers (in fact, one person came with a long lens and couldn't get far away enough), the worst being the Temnick's Stint, which seemed to be playing box and cox, on one attempt was told it was here 30 minutes ago, but no show.