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Message: <blockquote data-quote="John Cantelo" data-source="post: 1771158" data-attributes="member: 2844"><p>Interestingly, although long touted as sure fire colonists Serin haven't managed to establish itself and Sh-t Treecreeper (also once spoken of as a potential colonist) hasn't done much either.  In short, just because birds are expanding on the continent there's no guarantee that they're about to arrive en masse.  Given that a Penduline Tit built a nest here in Kent eons ago (someone else can look it up!), it's arrival as a breeding bird is somewhat overdue and I wonder if it will really happen.  Similarly, given the relative scarcity of Icterine in spring in the SE (despite expansion in nearby NW France) I wonder if the promise will ever match the reality.  As implied earlier, I think the 'what's the next bird to breed here', is a much less interesting question than what might actually colonise the UK.  Despite the record numbers of Glossy Ibis here I'm not convinced by its credentials.  GWE is clearly 'in with a chance' but I can only see it being an irregular breeder or, at best, breeding in very limited numbers.  In terms of colonisation (and the species has already attempted to breed here, at least in a mixed pair) I'd rate Yellow-legged Gull quite highly,</p></blockquote><p></p>