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Nikon FF (and DX) Mirrorless rumours/ announcements (1 Viewer)

marcsantacurz

Well-known member
They need to keep a prosumer DSLR or get a new FTZ-D that can do screw drive lenses with an aperture feeler. The current situation w/ the FTZ and older lenses is a joke.

I don't think Nikon can afford to release another Z mount with subpar sports AF compared to the high-end DSLRs -- well, at least not a Z that costs so much! They also need a big tracking usability upgrade, having to initiate it from full-frame auto AF is a losing strategy. Hopefully they can fix it in the Z6/Z7 too.

Marc
 

Vespobuteo

Well-known member
Interesting to see that Nikon is putting a lot of work on IBIS & video in the D6 (if the rumor is true). Maybe it will live longer than expected.

Perhaps even the D500 will survive for another generation.
 

Chosun Juan

Given to Fly
Australia - Aboriginal
Interesting to see that Nikon is putting a lot of work on IBIS & video in the D6 (if the rumor is true). Maybe it will live longer than expected.

Perhaps even the D500 will survive for another generation.

IBIS is probably an order of magnitude harder to implement in a DSLR than in Mirrorless, because of the way that they meter, focus, and expose. I wonder how far down the line this feature will go ? - I'm thinking not far given the D6 will cost the same as a reasonably priced car !

I think in general (and especially at the Pro levels), DSLR'S will live on until all Mirrorless banding /star-eating, and EVF resolution /speed /lag /blackout issues are resolved. The OVF seems to have a lot of life left in it yet - you would have to think that a hybrid overlay showing live blinkies /zebras is the next trick in the book for the mid-life upgrade say ~3 years down the track. The development pace of DSLR's may slow, and I expect mid range models to become parts bin specials. I think low end DSLR's will disappear purely on a Bill of Materials cost saving basis by transitioning to Mirrorless.

That's not to say this delays Mirrorless - rather they coexist - 1 declining in the rate of R&D, the other one progressively ramping up. I think we will see APS-C Mirrorless Z's soon, and then the ~60MP Z8 next year sometime. I think the Pro Mirrorless doesn't land until 2021 ......

I really hope the D500 gets a generational update based on the D6 - at least improved metering, focus, and processing hardware and software, and maybe another genuine 2fps up to 12 with AF/AE/Tracking, and keeping the 200 full RAW buffer. IBIS may be a bridge too far at the APS-C price point for now. Smooth uncropped video capabilities at 4K30p oversampled at least seems to be a must in this market, the higher frame rates can be cropped to offer differentiation from the D6.

Paired with a PF 600mm f5.6 surely it would have to put plenty of bums on seats. Importantly as I've mentioned more than once - I think releasing this D500S or D560 or whatever, would buy valuable time for Nikon to develop Pro level Mirrorless AF systems. I agree with previous comments - those need to be right and competitive with what is likely to be a pretty impressive Sony a9 II market leader, straight out of the blocks.




Chosun :gh:
 

Vespobuteo

Well-known member
IBIS is probably an order of magnitude harder to implement in a DSLR than in Mirrorless, because of the way that they meter, focus, and expose. I wonder how far down the line this feature will go ? - I'm thinking not far given the D6 will cost the same as a reasonably priced car !

I think in general (and especially at the Pro levels), DSLR'S will live on until all Mirrorless banding /star-eating, and EVF resolution /speed /lag /blackout issues are resolved. The OVF seems to have a lot of life left in it yet - you would have to think that a hybrid overlay showing live blinkies /zebras is the next trick in the book for the mid-life upgrade say ~3 years down the track. The development pace of DSLR's may slow, and I expect mid range models to become parts bin specials. I think low end DSLR's will disappear purely on a Bill of Materials cost saving basis by transitioning to Mirrorless.

That's not to say this delays Mirrorless - rather they coexist - 1 declining in the rate of R&D, the other one progressively ramping up. I think we will see APS-C Mirrorless Z's soon, and then the ~60MP Z8 next year sometime. I think the Pro Mirrorless doesn't land until 2021 ......

I really hope the D500 gets a generational update based on the D6 - at least improved metering, focus, and processing hardware and software, and maybe another genuine 2fps up to 12 with AF/AE/Tracking, and keeping the 200 full RAW buffer. IBIS may be a bridge too far at the APS-C price point for now. Smooth uncropped video capabilities at 4K30p oversampled at least seems to be a must in this market, the higher frame rates can be cropped to offer differentiation from the D6.

Paired with a PF 600mm f5.6 surely it would have to put plenty of bums on seats. Importantly as I've mentioned more than once - I think releasing this D500S or D560 or whatever, would buy valuable time for Nikon to develop Pro level Mirrorless AF systems. I agree with previous comments - those need to be right and competitive with what is likely to be a pretty impressive Sony a9 II market leader, straight out of the blocks.

Chosun :gh:

Possibly IBIS is more targeted at video with a slight crop, for news shooters etc.

Perhaps Nikon will make cheaper "APS-Z" cameras. But will they sell any?
Maybe the market just isn't there.

The D500 would definitely be worth an update. Battery life for ever and OVF are nice things to have.
 

Chosun Juan

Given to Fly
Australia - Aboriginal
....Perhaps Nikon will make cheaper "APS-Z" cameras. But will they sell any?
Maybe the market just isn't there....

Yes ! That is the $64 Million Dollar question - literally !

All the market analysis (as evidenced by the major player's CEO's public comments) seems to indicate that smartphones (and saturation) is taking all the volume out of the market, and compacts, and DSLR's in particular. Certainly recent sales numbers seem to indicate this is so.

Nikon's APS-C lines are it's volume sellers. They are the ones expected to take a hit. The Mirrorless EOS-M range is a huge seller for Canon, and seems to be weathering the storm somewhat.

Nikon will be betting a large chunk of the house on APS-C Mirrorless Z being a similar saviour for their volumes. At least they got the Z mount part right so migration won't be an issue (though this doesn't really seem to be hurting Canon).
https://nikonrumors.com/2019/08/15/nikon-z-mirrorless-aps-c-camera-mockups.aspx/

Engineering and Business-wise it makes very good sense. The money they save on mirror boxes, prisms, separate metering and focusing circuitry, etc will pay for the necessary R&D with the rest able to be plugged back into the bottom line.

It will be critical that they have not only Mirrorless offerings however - but ones that tick all the boxes consumers want. The DSLR D3xxx, D5xxx, and D7xxx are actually very good for what they are ..... Nikon will have to improve on these with the Mirrorless products if they are to succeed - consumers want it all ! Sony also has set the bar quite high as far as AF and tracking goes, right throughout their product ranges - that will be one area among many that Nikon will have to at least equal. Canon also seems to be getting lots of positive punter press for their new EOS-M6 II.

Nikon has got it's work cut out - not only for bodies, but lenses too. I will be interested to see how long it takes them to come out with native Z DX lenses like 10-24 f4 (3.5?), and their 16-80 f2.8-f4 (3.5?) as well as a basic kit 16-200 f3.5-f5.6 ..... :cat:

Fingers crossed for Nikon.





Chosun :gh:
 

marcsantacurz

Well-known member
It will be interesting to see how accurate this is .... ? No Z telephotos of any real length .....
https://nikonrumors.com/2019/09/05/new-2020-2012-nikon-nikkor-z-s-line-lens-roadmap-leaked.aspx/

Chosun :gh:

My understanding is that telephotos don't really benefit from the wider mount or decreased flange distance, so adapting them (assuming the AF speed is the same) is about the same image. Sure, they could be a tiny bit shorter, but it is not on the scale of differences you see in the shorter focal lengths.

And I'm sure they want to keep the sports stuff all in the D5/D6 until the last possible moment.

FWIW, Jared Polin said that he dumped his D5/D500 a while ago while they still had good resale value and uses the A9 for all his action shooting now, though he does seem to like the Z6 + S lenses for portrait. I know I've been selling off D lenses, like the 135.

Marc
 

Chosun Juan

Given to Fly
Australia - Aboriginal
My understanding is that telephotos don't really benefit from the wider mount or decreased flange distance, so adapting them (assuming the AF speed is the same) is about the same image. Sure, they could be a tiny bit shorter, but it is not on the scale of differences you see in the shorter focal lengths.

And I'm sure they want to keep the sports stuff all in the D5/D6 until the last possible moment.

FWIW, Jared Polin said that he dumped his D5/D500 a while ago while they still had good resale value and uses the A9 for all his action shooting now, though he does seem to like the Z6 + S lenses for portrait. I know I've been selling off D lenses, like the 135.

Marc

Purely considering the optical design then yes, the biggest benefits are at the wide angle end of the focal range. In theory redesigning all lenses for the Z mount could offer a 30mm length saving at least, however a few seem to be just the old design with a 30mm hollow tube tacked on to the end. Perhaps this has been done for expediency or cost reasons.

There is a link somewhere in this thread where the designers state that better more precise focus is possible with the Z system due to the increased communications pathways between body and lens. This advantage seems to be even greater with dual focus motors, even driving groups in opposite directions to converge on the focal spot quicker. We could have some really snappy focus lenses ....

It does seem for now at least that Nikon IS keeping the sports / wildlife capability in the Pro F mount cameras. I can only hope they lighten the supertelephotos Pronto to match the competition, and hurry up delivering the PF 600 f5.6 !

Perhaps this bodes well for a DSLR successor to the D500 too - I'm sure they could transfer just enough D6 tech to keep it at the head of the pack (even if Sony does manage an a7000) - it would be awesome if they used the 26MP chip as in the Fujifilm. They could probably hobble the feature set (no dual card slots, less fps etc) enough to use the same sensor in a D7600 too - that's looking a little rusty now that Canon has come out with a high res /high speed 90D ......




Chosun :gh:
 

Chosun Juan

Given to Fly
Australia - Aboriginal
It will be interesting to see how accurate this is .... ? No Z telephotos of any real length .....
https://nikonrumors.com/2019/09/05/new-2020-2012-nikon-nikkor-z-s-line-lens-roadmap-leaked.aspx/

A few strange ones on this road map ....
I don't fully understand why you would bring out the 24 /f1.8 the year before the 20 /f1.8 when the only thing wider than that to start with is the f4 wide-angle zoom ..... ?

But the real kicker is what the holy Hector is the 28-70 /f2.8-f3.5 ?! Why on earth would you need that when you have 24-70 /f4, and 24-70 /f2.8 ....... surely there are other more profitable and volume selling lenses to make ?




Chosun :gh:
 

marcsantacurz

Well-known member
A few strange ones on this road map ....
I don't fully understand why you would bring out the 24 /f1.8 the year before the 20 /f1.8 when the only thing wider than that to start with is the f4 wide-angle zoom ..... ?

To make people buy the 24 when the really want the 20, so they then buy the 20 later.

But the real kicker is what the holy Hector is the 28-70 /f2.8-f3.5 ?! Why on earth would you need that when you have 24-70 /f4, and 24-70 /f2.8 ....... surely there are other more profitable and volume selling lenses to make ?

I don't understand the 28-70/2.8-3.5. I could understand doing a kit zoom that is smaller and lighter weight. But they already have an f/4, so could this be smaller? I don't think so. It's a head scratcher.

marc
 

Chosun Juan

Given to Fly
Australia - Aboriginal
A few details of what is likely to be the 60MP Z8 ....
I can only hope that the lossy RAW compression is in addition to proper lossless compression. It may be a good alternative to Jpeg (but then there may be better alternatives to that anyway just waiting for widespread adoption) , as long as all the different modes are available as a user choice.
https://www.nikonrumors.co/leaked-new-nikon-camera-nikon-z8-with-61mp-and-16-bit-nef-files/
https://nikonrumors.com/2019/09/19/...n-camera-with-60mp-and-16-bit-nef-files.aspx/




Chosun :gh:
 
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Chosun Juan

Given to Fly
Australia - Aboriginal
Mirrorless APS-C design patents

Nikon has made two design patents for it's Z mount APS-C Mirrorless models. The format looks very much along the lines of Sony's a6xxx series of cameras - maybe one even has pop-up flash and pop-up EVF ..... ?
https://nikonrumors.com/2019/09/20/...-two-different-aps-c-mirrorless-cameras.aspx/

It will be interesting to see how the feel compares with the D3500 /D5600 DSLR's. Also interesting to see if there is any real advancement in computational photography and connectivity ..... :cat:





Chosun :gh:
 

njlarsen

Gallery Moderator
Opus Editor
Supporter
Barbados
https://nikonrumors.com/2019/09/23/...-55mm-and-50-250mm-to-be-announced-soon.aspx/

Well, the announcement will be welcome, but I wonder if a mere 20MP will cut it in 2019? given the competition. I'm also a bit disappointed that they are sticking with the 2 lens kit type approach. I think it's a missed opportunity not to do a single 16-200 f3.5-f5.6 ...... :cat:

Chosun :gh:

If that is what you want you better switch to Olympus: https://www.43rumors.com/olympus-12-200mm-review-at-imaging-resource/ :-O

Niels
 

Chosun Juan

Given to Fly
Australia - Aboriginal
If that is what you want you better switch to Olympus: https://www.43rumors.com/olympus-12-200mm-review-at-imaging-resource/ :-O

Niels
Niels,

I'd be inclined to go more for something like the 12-100 f4 Pro https://m.dpreview.com/products/olympus/lenses/olympus_12-100_4p0_is_pro

In the APS-C Nikon DSLR DX mount third party providers match the lens you posted, and nearly do what I suggested https://m.dpreview.com/products/tamron/lenses/tamron_16-300-3p5-6p3

With equivalent FL glass, aspherics, and CFRP and other engineering plastics, such a lens as I suggested could come in at the same size and weight of these offerings or less. Important to get the long end aperture sped up to at least f5.6 I feel.

I just don't see that Nikon has done anything innovative, nor anything to capitalize on the Z mount dimensions. Apart from more fps, and future proofing, where's the compelling argument over the existing APS-C DSLR's ........ ? :cat:

People tossing up whether to buy this in addition to their new iPhone 11 Pro would have to search quite hard ..... it's no good having the larger DX sized sensor with a couple of slow lenses you have to swap between imo.



Chosun :gh:
 

marcsantacurz

Well-known member
https://nikonrumors.com/2019/09/23/...-55mm-and-50-250mm-to-be-announced-soon.aspx/

Well, the announcement will be welcome, but I wonder if a mere 20MP will cut it in 2019? given the competition. I'm also a bit disappointed that they are sticking with the 2 lens kit type approach. I think it's a missed opportunity not to do a single 16-200 f3.5-f5.6 ...... :cat:

I think this is typical Nikon. Release a first set of not-quite-what-you-want lenses and bodies so people buy them, then release the lens/bodies that people really want. I'm sure they will do a new all-purpose walk-around Z lens in 9-12 months.

From the design patents, the bodies look like very small (think a6400-size) bodies targeted at consumer, not prosumer. I bet with those kit lenses they can nail a sweet spot that will fill the d3xxxx and d5xxxx market.

I'm still waiting for the d500 replacement. It's looking like Sony will get there first with their a7000 (or whatever it will be called).

It is not clear to me if these two new lenses are Z-mount DX image circle lenses or small FF lenses. I'm assuming they are targeting a small DX image circle.

The current rumor is the Z50 sensor is based on the d500, and they are not sure if the smaller a6400-sized bodies are for the Z50 or not. They said this is supposed to be on the d7xxx quality level.

Marc
 

Chosun Juan

Given to Fly
Australia - Aboriginal
I think this is typical Nikon. Release a first set of not-quite-what-you-want lenses and bodies so people buy them, then release the lens/bodies that people really want. ....
Unfortunately I think you are right about that. It's the same situation as not releasing the 20mm f1.8 Z lens before the 24mm ...

Granted that the APS-C Z's will be cheaper to manufacture, but really where is the 'compelling' reason to get these over the D3/5/7xxx DSLR's ? I mean the existing F mount DX lenses would all readily adapt anyway for those stuck in that outdated 2 kit lens approach.

It seems a crazy strategy to continue on with the same modus operandi that has seen your market share plummet right in front of you. There's opportunity here and I'm a bit cranky that Nikon isn't seizing it. By making one decent 16~200 f3.5-f5.6 APS-C Z mount zoom lens as I suggested instead (especially for a D7xxx level camera https://nikonrumors.com/2019/09/24/nikon-z50-mirrorless-aps-c-camera-updates.aspx/ ), they could also save on the timeframe to put the other essential lenses out that existing or potential customers are waiting on .....

The pricing of all of these vs the run out entry level legacy DSLR's will be interesting to see. Interesting also to see if the bread and butter DX upgrade camera - the D7500 continues on at all, let alone gets an upgrade .... :cat:




Chosun :gh:
 
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marcsantacurz

Well-known member
If the Z50 is a d7500-based sensor, I doubt there will be a d7600.

It does seem odd to bill it as a d7500-class camera and have those lower end consumer lenses. I suspect they are going for small size & weight as the differentiating features, at least that's all that makes sense to me given what we know.

I guess they are trying to compete against the A6600? Same 11FPS, but lower res. We'll need to see if they have something that tilts the scale towards Nikon from Sony.

Marc
 

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