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Nikon FF (and DX) Mirrorless rumours/ announcements (1 Viewer)

Chosun Juan

Given to Fly
Australia - Aboriginal
That interview is extremely light on in detail re:- curved sensors :brains:
Sigma's CEO says they are "too restrictive" for fixed or ILC cameras. I really don't understand what that means. The resolution benefits have been proven, as has the ease and scalability of manufacture of the sensors.

What it would require though is a complete redesign of all lenses to suit. I would have thought a third party lens manufacturer would be licking their lips at the juicy requirement of a completely new market for lenses opening up.

Perhaps they mean that they don't have the capacity to design and manufacture a completely new line at the moment. I can also see difficulties if a common standard for curvature is not adopted - if every brand went off on their own individual formula for curvature it would be a nightmare to d&c lenses for ...... and economically unfeasible - efficiency wise.

It is a shame this is not being vigorously pushed - we could have lenses that are so much better and lighter :king:

I get the impression that Canon and Nikon are taking their own good time, and will go through the slow evolution of regular flat plane Mirrorless first. We may see curved sensors in Smartphones first, but consumer and pro cameras are where the really significant weight and to a lesser extent, size reductions lay .....



Chosun :gh:
 

njlarsen

Gallery Moderator
Opus Editor
Supporter
Barbados
My guess is that it would be more likely to occur in a fixed lens compact first, and only after proven reliable there would someone think about ILC use. Think about how much it would take to make a new system and how long it would take to populate with a completely new set of lenses -- I guess it would be very difficult to build a universal adapter to retrofit older lenses into such a camera.

Niels
 

Vespobuteo

Well-known member
Sigma are in the middle of redesigning their entire lens line to art- and sports-versions for standard flat sensors, so they are probably the last that wants curved sensors to complicate things.

Sony tells us that Ca/Ni will go mirrorless full frame within a year:

https://www.dpreview.com/news/68933...n-will-go-full-frame-mirrorless-within-a-year

If Nikon could make the lenses smaller they would have the edge over Sony.

Small cameras like the Ricoh GR would probably be very suitable for a curved sensor making a fast but still light wide-angle zoom possible.
 
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Chosun Juan

Given to Fly
Australia - Aboriginal
The slow track for sure ......

So a slow evolution of flat plane Mirrorless technology (though I hope we see the Niki more like Photokina this year rather than CP+ next year!), and a whole new slew of native lenses (at least 2 dozen over time), and various adapters to suit legacy lenses.

All of this requires new investment by the consumer, in technology that in less than 5 years will be obsolete with the curved sensor revolution! The adoption of a Curved Sensor Standard as I said earlier, will be key in allowing Third Party lens manufacturers to participate in a viable Ecosystem, and allow prudent business planning and financing.

This slow track is not great for consumers hoping for ~50% weight reductions via a synthesis of:- Curved Sensors + Mirrorless + Diffraction Optics technologies

I'm left wondering (from a personal point of view) whether there will be any real incentive to buy into the Mirrorless fray unless something comes along to WOW me. I get the gut feel that by the time that happens late in the Mirrorless system development life cycle that the Industry will finally be debuting the aforementioned Curved Sensor + recipe ..............

Damned enticing and similtaneously annoying and expensive technology road maps! grrr! :eat:



Chosun :gh:
 

etudiant

Registered User
Supporter
The slow track for sure ......

So a slow evolution

This slow track is not great for consumers hoping for ~50% weight reductions via a synthesis of:- Curved Sensors + Mirrorless + Diffraction Optics technologies


Slower evolution is the most likely path.
Mirrorless is pretty simple in comparison to curved sensors or DO, yet the mirrorless evolution is happening only very slowly.
Now camera sales volume growth has stopped and business is less lucrative, so things will be even slower to develop. Today the manufacturers are hyping very modest gains in performance that are not really visible to the average consumer.
Imho, much smaller, lighter, more integrated cameras that are easy to carry and simple to use are the way forward.
The manufacturers clearly don't share that view, as they are emphasizing larger, more complex and expensive full frame cameras.
 

Chosun Juan

Given to Fly
Australia - Aboriginal
The slow track for sure ......

So a slow evolution

This slow track is not great for consumers hoping for ~50% weight reductions via a synthesis of:- Curved Sensors + Mirrorless + Diffraction Optics technologies


Slower evolution is the most likely path.
Mirrorless is pretty simple in comparison to curved sensors or DO, yet the mirrorless evolution is happening only very slowly.
Now camera sales volume growth has stopped and business is less lucrative, so things will be even slower to develop. Today the manufacturers are hyping very modest gains in performance that are not really visible to the average consumer.
Imho, much smaller, lighter, more integrated cameras that are easy to carry and simple to use are the way forward.
The manufacturers clearly don't share that view, as they are emphasizing larger, more complex and expensive full frame cameras.

There are lots of interviews/ opinion/ analysis being reported at the moment after CP+ 2018.

Two contrasting ones which are in fact quite telling are from Sony https://m.dpreview.com/interviews/1...urers-have-to-develop-mirrorless-technologies
and Canon https://m.dpreview.com/interviews/1...w-increased-competition-allows-us-to-level-up

Sony seems to be more 'new engineering' focussed, and have more of a handle on what those customers new to photography require. They make specific mention of having their FE mount 'open source' with plenty of Third Party lenses hitting the market currently as a result.

Canon in practical terms are a bit more clueless and less focused on connectivity, interface, and work flow, preferring to 'protect' established segments and marketing niches. It seems to be quite regimented and micro-segmented when it comes to current product line ups, engineering and development pipelines. Sometimes I wonder who their customers actually are in reality! It's no wonder that some segments of the market are in decline. They want to cover every single level of product, and are even coming up with 'parts bin specials' https://m.dpreview.com/news/5653767573/the-canon-eos-4000d-might-be-the-cheapest-dslr-ever-launched.

I expect we may see some inside commentary from interviews with senior Nikon execs soon too. It seems that apart from the changing market and imaging landscape (and revolutionary new customer base) , that dealing with the massive legacy catalogue and mounts for both Canon and Nikon is a huge question that each company is still wrestling with.

The 2020 Tokyo Olympics will be a huge impetus and deadline for the emergence of professional level FF Mirrorless product.

I agree that the smaller sensor formats (1" , MFT) are where we are likely to see innovations along the lines of computational photography really lift their performance. I really wish though that those makers already heavily invested in the MFT arena would provide some decent faster telephotos (f5.6, f4.5 , 4 or 500's) rather than hamstringing the system with f6.3, or f6.7 top speeds.

Larger format (APS-C, FF) Curved Sensors + Mirrorless + Diffraction Optics technologies would be a beautifully elegant solution, though I am decidedly less optimistic now, and it doesn't look like arriving until a whole new generation of flat plane Mirrorless has painstakingly evolved first. Perhaps as long as ~ 5 years down the track ....... and even then, the significant investment would best be served by 'open source' industry agreement and Standards.

If the MFT players stuck their heads together and cooperated, it is possible they could introduce that Curved Sensors + Mirrorless + Diffraction Optics technologies recipe, perhaps even as a surprise revolution for the 2020 Olympics ...... we can hope can't we !? o:) :cat:



Chosun :gh:
 
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etudiant

Registered User
Supporter
The missing ingredients in this industry are a standards body and a decent academic research base.
The Internet had Carnegie Mellon and the IETF, today even the lowly USB has standards and engineering groups that hammer out the specifications for each generation. But in cameras, there is little contact to academia and the products are all siloed. nothing interchangeable and no standards, to the detriment of the customer.
Sony is attempting to reset the model, using the open source idea as a model.
They can afford it best, as they have little legacy glass to defend and make their money in sensors.
Canon and Nikon are lens makers first, not sensor specialists, so the open source model has no attraction for them, plus Canon is profitable and the market leader, hence unlikely to rock the boat. A serious Chinese entry into the market might drive change, but is not even a rumor as yet.
 

etudiant

Registered User
Supporter
A one-inch sensor in a m4/3 body and you could have a 540mm f2.8 add a 1.4 converter and get a 756mm f4 ;)

https://www.wexphotovideo.com/panasonic-200mm-f2-8-leica-dg-elmarit-power-o-i-s-lens-1643853/

Nobody wants to carry big glass, but it is currently essential to feed the big sensors.
I don't know where the smaller 1" sensors lag the big FF options.
Is it diffraction limitations, sensor dynamic range, sensor noise or what?
Perhaps they need to use a different material than silicon or new sensor structures.
It needs the kind of transformative innovation that academic research sometimes makes possible, but it is not evident that is happening.
 

Chosun Juan

Given to Fly
Australia - Aboriginal
Nobody wants to carry big glass, but it is currently essential to feed the big sensors.
I don't know where the smaller 1" sensors lag the big FF options.
Is it diffraction limitations, sensor dynamic range, sensor noise or what?
Perhaps they need to use a different material than silicon or new sensor structures.
It needs the kind of transformative innovation that academic research sometimes makes possible, but it is not evident that is happening.
All of the above ....
I think as more and more advanced sensor architecture and materials become available, then the smaller sensors (in concert with things such as computational photography) start to become more viable for bird photographers. m43 seriously needs some fast telephoto glass though - a 500 f4 Diffractive Optics/Phase Fresnal design shouldn't break the size and weight bank .....

Of course every sensor and processing advance applied to smaller sensors will also inspire new levels of envy and expectation when applied to larger formats ...... thus moving the goal posts on again .....



Chosun :gh:
 

Chosun Juan

Given to Fly
Australia - Aboriginal
This is crazy stuff 'By Thom'.
Usually his analyses make some degree of sense - but not this one - he seems to conflate game theory with some really bad strategy ....
http://www.sansmirror.com/newsviews/the-mirrorless-prisoners.html

I would suggest that if Nikon doesn't go with the full fat minimalist 'Z' mount for its new Mirrorless format (thus maximizing all the weight savings benefits and wide angle and stabilization capabilities) then it is sunk.

Of course it needs to look after it's legacy lens customer base - and the way to do this with a new 16mm FFD 'Z' mount is with fully functioning and capable adapters. Multiple versions if necessary. The opporrunity to engineer various adapters/ converters is compelling. And preferably offer base verions free or promoted at launch to minimize the fleecing of it's loyal customers.

Doing so would put the pressure on to provide new lenses at launch and quickly afterwards but also open up a huge new market opportunity. It also maximizes the size and weight savings for us the consumers (well within the flat plane sensor paradigm anyway ....). A critical overriding factor imho.

I would suggest that Nikon develop a 'classic' version of the retro styled Df II equipped with focus motors and screw drives and mechanical apertures etc to cater for those customers with really old legacy lenses.

Hope you're listening Nikon ....... :brains: :eat: :cat:



Chosun :gh:
 

etudiant

Registered User
Supporter
This is crazy stuff 'By Thom'.
Usually his analyses make some degree of sense - but not this one - he seems to conflate game theory with some really bad strategy ....
http://www.sansmirror.com/newsviews/the-mirrorless-prisoners.html

I would suggest that if Nikon doesn't go with the full fat minimalist 'Z' mount for its new Mirrorless format (thus maximizing all the weight savings benefits and wide angle and stabilization capabilities) then it is sunk.

Of course it needs to look after it's legacy lens customer base - and the way to do this with a new 16mm FFD 'Z' mount is with fully functioning and capable adapters. Multiple versions if necessary. The opporrunity to engineer various adapters/ converters is compelling. And preferably offer base verions free or promoted at launch to minimize the fleecing of it's loyal customers.

Doing so would put the pressure on to provide new lenses at launch and quickly afterwards but also open up a huge new market opportunity. It also maximizes the size and weight savings for us the consumers (well within the flat plane sensor paradigm anyway ....). A critical overriding factor imho.

I would suggest that Nikon develop a 'classic' version of the retro styled Df II equipped with focus motors and screw drives and mechanical apertures etc to cater for those customers with really old legacy lenses.

Hope you're listening Nikon ....... :brains: :eat: :cat:



Chosun :gh:

From a bird photography perspective, does FF mirrorless really matter?

The size of the sensor pretty much determines the size of the lens, all other things being equal. Even if the camera body shrinks due to the removal of the mirror box, the overall setup will still be big and bulky from all that glass.

Nikon has limited resources, it would take multiple years before they could deliver a full complement of lenses for a new mount.
If there is no compelling benefit, why bother?
 

Chosun Juan

Given to Fly
Australia - Aboriginal
From a bird photography perspective, does FF mirrorless really matter?

The size of the sensor pretty much determines the size of the lens, all other things being equal. Even if the camera body shrinks due to the removal of the mirror box, the overall setup will still be big and bulky from all that glass.

Nikon has limited resources, it would take multiple years before they could deliver a full complement of lenses for a new mount.
If there is no compelling benefit, why bother?
Etud,

Your point has validity to an extent, but don't focus on the traditional big FF DSLR + 600mm f4 Super telephoto analogy only. For while the weight and size benefits of deleting the mirror box, ovf, and reducing lens length accordingly are relatively small, what we are talking about is setting and optimising the design parameters going forward for a truly versatile system (encompassing many types of uses), that offers more than just incremental gains.

Specifically, the same minimal FFD 'Z' mount that takes long telephoto lenses will also take pancake lenses, fast standard focal length primes, and compact zooms for street photography rigs etc. Further, it will also be used on APS-C Mirrorless versions too, and Nikon has said it offers significant benefits for fast ultra wide lenses.

A new paradigm under this system for a birding rig might be a high resolution APS-C (or even FF) sensor with in-camera crop facility (offering 2x focal length 35mm equivalent), with say a 300mm f4 PF with or without an additional 1.4xTC for [email protected], or [email protected], or with a 500mm f5.6 PF for [email protected] ....... such outfits weighing ~ 1.1kg (2&1/2lb) - 2kg (4&1/2lb). Emminently doable.

Then take this exact same body and change to your 35mm f1.2, or 50mm f1.8 prime, or 24-85mm f2.8, or 10-24mm f4, or 18-300 f5.6 zoom for a nice portrait/ walk around/ landscape/ travel, set up etc .....

Pretty nifty huh? :cat:

The job of redesigning lenses for the new mount should in most part involve minor design tweaks and re-engineering of existing optical formulas and lenses, and while the volume is onerous, the difficulty is not extreme. They would be well advised to target certain key lenses in professional, prosumer, and consumer grades concurrently first .... ie. 15, 24, 35, 50, 85mm fast primes, 70-200 f2.8, and 10-24 f4, and 80-400 f5.6 zooms, and 3 & 400 f4, and 5 & 600 f5.6 PF's, etc

Hopefully Nikon are designing the new PF telephotos natively for the Mirrorless mount and then reverse engineering an FX mount compatible version for current and future DSLR users.

Critical to the whole shebang will be a range of fully functioning adapters, and opening the spec and operating protocols to 3rd party lens manufacturers.


Chosun :gh:
 
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etudiant

Registered User
Supporter
Guess we will see what Nikon comes up with.
The appeal of mirrorless is that it will allow smaller camera bodies and lenses, plus perhaps greater reliability as the mirror assembly disappears.
The challenge is that Nikon is behind in this space, at a time when they are financially strapped.
Imho, it needs some compelling Nikon specific advantage for them to dare to bet heavily on redoing their product line. Hopefully that will be forthcoming.
 

Chosun Juan

Given to Fly
Australia - Aboriginal
Modular Grip Innovation

Getting rid of the mirror, mirror box (ie. having a minimal flange focal distance [FFD]) , and the optical viewfinder (OVF) frees up a lot of room, and allows the camera thickness to reduce significantly (almost like a fat mobile phone). With a pancake lens, small fixed prime, or small zoom this then almost allows even a FF Mirrorless camera to be pocketable (okay, it's a large pocket! but you get the drift :)

The thing is you need a grip to hang on to especially with larger lenses. I find all mirrorless setups to be pretty dinky as far as the ergonomics go - primarily because of the grip not being large enough. There has been a trend with m43 to come out with larger and larger bodies (which kind of defeats their purpose) in order to address this. Still, I find true joy starts at a Canon 7D / Nikon D500 size (well for me anyway) with a 'man-sized' hand filling grip.

What I would like to see (and heck Nikon you may as well do it since no-one else is) , is òne of those minimalist small wedge type grips built-in on the camera body and the battery housed within the body. This makes even a FF Mirrorless with the aforementioned pancake/ small prime/ small zoom a very compact affair - pretty much as compact as anything else out there - great as an unobtrusive street /travel camera that is truly capable in low light.

Then I would like to see a range of modular grips (containing another battery - with waterproof connector) that would just slide straight over the top AND be fully weatherproof. These would come in a number of different sized grips - all the way up to that 7D/ D500 size suitable for use with long telephoto lenses.

Surely with a bit of engineering application such an innovation is doable? and would have to be a winner - almost like a 'transformer' type camera. Anyone else see utility in that? :brains:



Chosun :gh:
 

opticoholic

Well-known member
This latest rumor says it may not ship for another full year? Wow. If I were in the market for a new mirrorless camera (I'm not), I wouldn't wait; I'd pick something else available right now. Especially in light of how badly Nikon has rolled out some previous products, with delays and shortages. The only substance to this rumor is that we may have to wait quite a bit longer this year before we get a more substantive rumor...
Dave
 
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etudiant

Registered User
Supporter
This latest rumor says it may not ship for another full year? Wow. If I were in the market for a new mirrorless camera (I'm not), I wouldn't wait; I'd pick something else available right now. Especially in light of how badly Nikon has rolled out some previous products, with delays and shortages. The only substance to this rumor is that we may have to wait quite a bit longer this year before we get a more substantive rumor...
Dave

I agree, the track record suggests patience is warranted.
Perhaps the Nikon promise to differentiate with superior technology is also a factor. In a declining market, they might prefer to delay rather than to come out with a 'meh' product.
 

Chosun Juan

Given to Fly
Australia - Aboriginal
The Japanese financial year begins on 1st April (yep! that's no joke :)

Nikon have said that they will release before the next financial year (meaning northern hemisphere spring 2019) - see the linked recent interview with Nikon executive officer Kimito Uemura by NHK World Japan. Rumours have an announcement expected in several months (around Photokina 2018).

I agree though, this is something that Nikon have to get right from the get go ..... that means fully sorted, no bugs or quality/production issues, and solid supply numbers and flag a suitable lens road map.

Sony has set the bar high with their recently released BSI CMOS sensor a7 III, and Canon also has a FF Mirrorless in the works, so Nikon will have to be bang on, and meet their stated aims - leading IQ, EVF performance, availability of fast lenses, and long telephoto capability .....

The functionality and performance of the necessary adapters to cater to legacy lenses will be key (as will be their pricing and positioning I suspect - perhaps we may see some sort of complimentary, or promotional offer to spur action - turning tyre kickers into buyers).

https://www.nikonrumors.co/nikon-ex...rless-cameras-released-before-spring-of-2019/




Chosun :gh:
 
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