The Weather
after attempted prediction after prediction it seems alot of people are giving up on working out the weather and when it will bring about a fall - see demise of rarometer or this
http://www.birdforum.net/showthread.php?p=1296353#post1296353
I find it very difficult to work out what its going to do even when it looks like a classic so ive gradually developed my own much simpler way of working if there will be a fall of passerines :-
1. Falls very regularly seem to happen the day after big seawatches (and seawatches are easier to predict - Northerlies ideally NW)
2. Even when the weather seems excellent there needs to be a slight change, saw the sky go black today and rained for about half and hour. In Spring the opposite happened we had NE winds for weeks and had nothing but the day these conditions lifted and the sun broke out was the day the Black Lark arrived.
3. The origin of the winds seems important. Even though the theiry goes that if we have high pressure birds will fly straight through, if the origin of the winds is central Russia etc (how it is a the moment), surely birds flying from there will pitch down at the first sight of land.
4. If the weather has been unusual then seems likely something is about to happen (not often we get too many Indian Summers like we have at the moment.
5. Falls almost always happen in the afternoon then the next day night migrants from the original fall arrive in the morning.
6. there is a big chance that anything from E to NE will always produce regardless of highs/lows 'whats happening on the continent'.
7. If you start over analysing weather charts theres a good chance you'll miss out because you start thinking things will happen at a specific time - and you'll inevitably be wrong
got one precious day to hunt down something big tomorrow, just hope it comes together.