GiG/Earleybird/Spencer
All your observations corroborate the importance of cover for local distribution of sparrows, but I would be cautious in deducing that local declines associated with loss of cover account for a significant proportion of national decline when aggregated together, since they might just reflect spatial redistribution.
This is one of the more robust of the arguments contrary to the predation hypothesis put forward by the RSPB, who claim that the patterns we demonstrated merely show sparrows avoiding gardens where Sparrowhawks occur, so represent local redistribution. In this case the argument fails, since we show that Sparrowhawk incidence accounts for essentially all of the observed decline, from which the RSPB would be forced to conclude that no real decline has occurred. The argument remains valid in the case of the cover hypothesis, however, since no quantitative link has been established between cover and sparrow decline.
I get a sense that the constructive debate on the thread increasingly revolves around the extent to which habitat change has interacted with predation in causing sparrow decline. It’s worth remembering, therefore, that the RSPB still
swears blind that there is no evidence that predation affects songbird populations. They know this is not the case, and I’m afraid they are simply lying to the public.
And a question for CPB - is it possible to demonstrate from your data a clear directional basis to the house sparrow decline, ie from W to E, or perhaps towards a fixed point such as Cambridge ?
The short answer is not really, but there’s no reason to expect that there should be. To understand why, take a look at Figure 2 in the paper (
downloadable here). Figure 2c indicates that sparrows start declining in zones 1-3 (the three westernmost zones) from the mid-1980s, but only from the early 1990s in the easternmost zone 4. The reason for this can be seen in Figure 2a, which shows the growth of sparrowhawk incidence in the four zones. In the early 1970s this is higher in the west, but it grows more rapidly further east, so that by the early 2000s the relative incidence is reversed.
If there had been a simple, progressive recolonisation at the same rate across the country, one might have expected a W-E trend in sparrow decline, but the actual situation was more complicated than this. Figure 2e shows that the trends in Sparrowhawk incidence in the four zones predict the trajectory of sparrow decline with precision.
Incidentally, the fact that there is no clear W-E trend in sparrow decline is another of the counter-arguments offered by the RSPB, but as described above this betrays a naïve and simple minded approach to the problem.
http://www.cpbell.co.uk
http://www.youtube.com/CultoftheAmateur