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Message: <blockquote data-quote="John Cantelo" data-source="post: 3379545" data-attributes="member: 2844"><p>I think a distinction has to be made between species that may occasionally breed and those that become a well-established part of the British avifauna.  In this context, I don't see a realistic chance of any species making a 'go of it' (leaving aside those herons that have already had a go or have a toehold). Wryneck, Bluethroat and Red-backed Shrike have all been tipped for colonising Scotland for decades, but really haven't got anywhere. Similarly, in the south, Serin has been widely tipped as the 'next big thing' but hasn't got its act together.  Given the rapid expansion of Bluethroat just across the Channel in France and the availability of apparently suitable habitat in the SE then you'd think colonisation was 'on the cards', but the paucity of spring Bluethroats along the Channel coast suggest otherwise.  The same goes for both hippolais warblers. I'd like to think that the 'big fella', Black Woodpecker, could make it since they've colonised the coast opposite, but without a single UK record that seems unlikely. We should, though, look to species that can fill an unfilled niche here and large conifer plantations might help. If pushed, I'd opt for two species that many would regard as 'off the wall'; Thrush Nightingale and Blyth's Reed Warbler. Both have expanded their range and both might well fill a vacant niche in Scotland although being at the furthest reaches of their range the North Sea may be too great a barrier.   I can imagine Fan-tailed Warbler breeding or even establishing a beachhead, but not becoming a long term 'British' species.</p></blockquote><p></p>

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