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Message: <blockquote data-quote="Nutcracker" data-source="post: 3379576" data-attributes="member: 18214">Nice analysis, agree with most of it, except that I don't think conifer plantations would be good for Thrush Nightingale or Blyth's Reed - those are both more 'heat-loving' lowland species, not adapted to taiga conditions. If I was to go for an off-beam conifer plantation colonist, I'd chose Red-flanked Bluetail or Yellow-browed Warbler, both increasing and spreading west.Unfortunately, as with Icterine, the populations closest to Britain in Denmark are declining with no surplus to colonise (graph below from <a href="http://www.dofbasen.dk/ART/art.php?art=11030" target="_blank">DOF</a>) - so again, I don't think a good contender.Netherlands; and yes, a good candidate for (re?)colonisation (it's been suggested they bred commonly in Britain in mediaeval times).It does generally appear to be large waterside birds from the south where the best options lie: Little Egret well in, GWEgret newly in, Cattle Egret newly in, Little Bittern newly in, Purple Heron thinking about coming in, Glossy Ibis, Pygmy Cormorant heading our way. I'd guess this is largely related to better habitat protection and reduced persecution on mainland Europe. Squacco Heron is also getting more frequent - another potential colonist there?Among small birds, I'd agree Fan-tailed Warbler is a good chance - and if they can get in and spread fast enough to reach the far southwest and Ireland before the next hard winter, I don't see why they couldn't hold their place here. Also from the south, maybe Western Subalpine Warbler?</blockquote>

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