Which Species Will Be the Next to Breed in the UK? (1 Viewer)

[dantheman]

They were an annual breeder seen by many before losing their foothold.

All the best

Paul

And (presumably) again somewhere in the vicinity of RSPB Rainham Marshes nr Dartford some years ago? ...

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Brown Booby ;-)

 

[John Cantelo]

I omitted Bluethroat as they have already bred in the UK (Scotland '68 & suspected since I think) but if I can be a little more parochial then it has to be a contender for breeding in England. They're common in marshy areas in the Pas-de-Calais and similar habitat exists across the Channel in Kent. That said the species remains stubbornly rare in the county in spring. I'd agree that Zitting Cisticola must be in the frame as a potential nesting species here (as they do so within sight of the UK) but the Channel seems a greater barrier to it than the previous species. Sardinian Warbler has expanded its range in NW Iberia but I can't see it breeding here any time soon.

 

[kb57]

I omitted Bluethroat as they have already bred in the UK (Scotland '68 & suspected since I think) but if I can be a little more parochial then it has to be a contender for breeding in England. They're common in marshy areas in the Pas-de-Calais and similar habitat exists across the Channel in Kent. That said the species remains stubbornly rare in the county in spring. I'd agree that Zitting Cisticola must be in the frame as a potential nesting species here (as they do so within sight of the UK) but the Channel seems a greater barrier to it than the previous species. Sardinian Warbler has expanded its range in NW Iberia but I can't see it breeding here any time soon.

I'm probably thinking longer term with Sardinian warbler - they seem to have fairly wide habitat preferences, so no obvious habitat availability reason why they couldn't continue to expand further north with continued warming - they're spreading up the Rhone valley, and I notice there are records of singing birds from Arcachon on the Atlantic coast, while there are spring vagrant records from the English south coast. I notice Common Waxbill are now almost at the French border too

 

[Southern Viking]

Always a possibility that Lesser Scaup are doing the biz somewhere after the influx last autumn/winter. How you'd proove it was a pure pair if the male had gone and it was just a female with ducklings is another matter

 

[edenwatcher]

Bluethroat bred again a couple of years ago. Bizarrely in "inappropriate" habitat on the Cairngorm plateau.

Rob

 

[Phil Andrews]

With 2 today at Llanelli WWT (and other multiple reports in recent years) perhaps Caspian Tern?

 

[Andy Lakin]

If they haven't already how close have Glossy Ibis and Penduline Tit come? As others have said there must be some fantastic breeding records that aren't reported. Even if the news was vague I.e reported the year after, just county name etc it would be great to know.

 

[Paul Chapman]

If they haven't already how close have Glossy Ibis and Penduline Tit come? As others have said there must be some fantastic breeding records that aren't reported. Even if the news was vague I.e reported the year after, just county name etc it would be great to know.

Glossy Ibis bred in Cambridgeshire in 2022 - Glossy Ibis breeds in Britain for first time

As far as I am aware, despite nests being constructed, Penduline Tit has never been proven to have bred.

All the best

Paul

 

[Jos Stratford]

As far as I am aware, despite nests being constructed, Penduline Tit has never been proven to have bred.

But in Ireland a year or two ago, no? Or at least I sent to remember a pair was on and off all spring, then young later in the season.

 

[Jacana]

Western Bonelli's Warbler is a species to consider too.

 

[twitcherf]

But in Ireland a year or two ago, no? Or at least I sent to remember a pair was on and off all spring, then young later in the season.

I dont believe they were proven to breed in Ireland - the sightings in Cork were largely during winter. Of course, they breed in Holland, which is as relevant to the thread title as any which might have bred in Cork!

 

[Jos Stratford]

Of course, they breed in Holland, which is as relevant to the thread title as any which might have bred in Cork!

Funny, for a thread asking for predictions of the next breeding species to occur in Britain, I'd have thought the appearance of males and females together in Ireland, and the subsequent possible breeding, would be pretty relevant. If they can make it to Ireland and potentially breed, they can do likewise in Britain. I'd say a little more relevant than the regular occurrence in Holland, though I'd also say that's a relevant factor too.

 

[twitcherf]

Funny, for a thread asking for predictions of the next breeding species to occur in Britain, I'd have thought the appearance of males and females together in Ireland, and the subsequent possible breeding, would be pretty relevant. If they can make it to Ireland and potentially breed, they can do likewise in Britain. I'd say a little more relevant than the regular occurrence in Holland, though I'd also say that's a relevant factor too.

I would disagree - the source population in Holland is of far more relevance than the occurrence of 3 vagrants in Ireland, partilcularly considering that British records outnumber Irish ones by a factor of more than 100

 

[Farnboro John]

There's been a recent run of Western records indicative of regular incursions from Iberia: Gloucester, Somerset, Ireland. It's not just three vagrants but an occurrence pattern.

John

 

[Xenospiza]

I would disagree - the source population in Holland is of far more relevance than the occurrence of 3 vagrants in Ireland, partilcularly considering that British records outnumber Irish ones by a factor of more than 100

There isn't much of a "source population" of Penduline Tits left in the Netherlands: numbers dropped from 250 pairs in the 1990s to maybe 15 now.

 

[Paul Chapman]

But in Ireland a year or two ago, no? Or at least I sent to remember a pair was on and off all spring, then young later in the season.

Funny, for a thread asking for predictions of the next breeding species to occur in Britain, I'd have thought the appearance of males and females together in Ireland, and the subsequent possible breeding, would be pretty relevant. If they can make it to Ireland and potentially breed, they can do likewise in Britain. I'd say a little more relevant than the regular occurrence in Holland, though I'd also say that's a relevant factor too.

At a genuine loss on these records. What dates and what locations?

I recall three in Cork at two sites and a subsequent ringing recovery from France of one of those as they were ringed:-

https://twitter.com/x/status/1730692048678682969

These were the first Irish records and they were last year.

I also recall a ringing recovery of a Penduline Tit from Britain in Southern Sweden.

I may have missed the subsequent records?

All the best

Paul

 

[Jos Stratford]

I may have missed the subsequent records?

More likely I am misremembering 🙂

 

[twitcherf]

At a genuine loss on these records. What dates and what locations?

I recall three in Cork at two sites and a subsequent ringing recovery from France of one of those as they were ringed:-

https://twitter.com/x/status/1730692048678682969

These were the first Irish records and they were last year.

I also recall a ringing recovery of a Penduline Tit from Britain in Southern Sweden.

I may have missed the subsequent records?

All the best

Paul

No Paul, you have it spot on, that is, I believe, the totality of Irish records of Penduline Tit. It's an extreme rarity here, with what is effectively one record of three birds that wintered. Although I seem to remember a claim of one the following winter

 

[twitcherf]

There isn't much of a "source population" of Penduline Tits left in the Netherlands: numbers dropped from 250 pairs in the 1990s to maybe 15 now.

And yet, I would suggest, still far more relevant to a discussion of breeding in the UK than the Irish record, which was a vagrant. The Dutch population is at a similar latitude to South East Britain

 

[dantheman]

And yet, I would suggest, still far more relevant to a discussion of breeding in the UK than the Irish record, which was a vagrant. The Dutch population is at a similar latitude to South East Britain

It doesn't always work like that though ... vagrant outliers as new colonists are just as likely/unlikely as gentle local expansion ... either or both may happen as a source, or neither.

(In this case the channel is a potential problem, as it is to many other potential breeding species.)