ABA Big Year 2016 (1 Viewer)

[dantheman]

He's picked up the two we were thinking of -

http://www.birdingfordevils.com/p/this-is-listing-of-species-so-far.html

Presumably 'difficult' birds like Gray Partridge won't be a problem.

If he uses ebird (the irony ...) he can relatively easily pick up another two shorebirds on his travels; Red Knot and Baird's Sandpiper as two of the returning/non-breeders I was mentioning earlier - putting him even closer to the magic 750.

Presumably he is aware that Olaf is stagnating - and whipping around the remaining code 1 and 2's in the same style as before - or is he finding that an extra motivation, I wonder?

 

[Chris_D]

John chasing the plover, sparrow and scrub jay - when the missing summer visitors include a rail, two swifts, a warbler and hummingbird, seems a strange decision.

 

[dantheman]

Here is a comparison of some big years at the halfway point (June 30):

__ Birder ______ Year halfway _ Final
O. Danielson ___ 2016 744/77 ___ ?
John Weigel ____ 2016 730/86 ___ ?
Sandy Komito ___ 1998 692/75 __ 748
C. Hagenbacher _ 2016 684/54 ___ ?
J. Vanderpoel __ 2011 654/38 __ 743
Neil Hayward ___ 2013 653/36 __ 749
Bob Ake _________2010 649/32 __ 731
Laura Keene ____ 2016 624/?? ___ ?
Lynn Barber ____ 2008 604/38 __ 723
Jay Lehman _____ 2013 525/34 __ 734

I think the surprise is how far ahead Christian is of Neil Hayward and John Vanderpoel, especially with coded birds. Christian could definitely get to 750, although it should be noted that both Neil and John V chased lots of birds late in the year. Of course, 750 wouldn't be the record by the time he gets to it

Laura Keene looks to be positioned well to get over 700. I'm not sure what her goals/plans are, or how many coded birds she has, so its hard to say more than that.

Regarding the biggest question of all, while I am sort of rooting for Olaf, my head says Weigel is going to take it. Not just because of his coded bird lead, but also because he seems absolutely focused and relentless.

Jeff Thomas

Not forgetting Laura Keene is still only up to June 11th - unless her calendar is set badly wrong I'm assuming she's being a bit belated in posting lists to ebird (as opposed to having had a break from it all). For all we know she could have almost exclusively targeted rarities and then summer migrants, leaving the fall/winter for more rarities/residents. Maybe/maybe not.

Christian's year has changed dramatically from his early months (and he seems to be on something of the strategy I just mentioned for Laura - so yes he could still almost clean up and hit a big total, especially as he'll get a second bite come fall/winter of rarities that the other two have already seen ... )

I'm assuming ebird must be the game changer in all this compared to earlier attempts? Or just strategy/luck of the birds?

 

[dantheman]

John chasing the recent plover, sparrow and scrub jay - when the missing summer visitors include a rail, two swifts, a warbler and hummingbird, seems a strange decision.

He did need Mississippi Kite though - which doesn't particularly coincide with the range of any of the above (if the Rail has stopped singing I'm assuming that is now off the cards for a few months - not worth the effort for now given the chances and with other birds to hunt down). Gets Florida out of the way ...

The others you mention along with Snowcock etc presumably next? The visitors all roughly grouped in Central/NW, and then maybe east a bit for the gamebirds.

 

[trptjoe]

Well, that takes care of Bachman's Sparrow (and Wilson's Plover).
Joe

 

[bernerjc]

July 5 Totals
745 (ebird) or 744 (his blog) Bradley McDonald (A.K.A. Olaf Danielson)(July 3)
738 John Weigel (July 5) catching up very rapidly.
688 Christian Hagenlocher (July 2)

Why do people think Olaf's only at 744 despite ebird=745--looks to me like an acceptable picture of the green violet-ear on his previous blog post(Is he holding one back?)

Adapted from Paul Chapman's list as i couldn't wait (Paul' s list was confirmed by dantheman at that time--thanks to you both for your continuing updates!!)
I believe that Olaf is down to 4 species at Codes 1 & 2:-
Red-faced Cormorant
Wood Sandpiper
Mottled Petrel
Buller's Shearwater

I believe that John still has 19 species at Code 1 & 2 to target:-
Ross's Goose
Hudsonian Godwit
Red Knot
Baird's Sandpiper
Buff-breasted Sandpiper
Vaux's Swift
Rufous Hummingbird
MacGillivray's Warbler
Harris's Sparrow
Himalayan Snowcock
Gray Partridge
Spruce Grouse
Mottled Petrel
Buller's Shearwater
Yellow Rail
Black Swift
Island Scrub-Jay
Smith's Longspur
McKay's Bunting

EBIRD Code 3 Birds seen at least TWICE (presumably won't chase if only seen once) from Land in last 7 days needed by Olaf (please correct if i missed one)
Arctic Loon Nome, Alaska (Olaf) will presumably wait for this one until he gets there
Red-Billed Tropicbird Seal Island, Maine (Olaf) limited access--are there spaces on boat trips now?
http://www.maineseabirdtours.com/

 

[dantheman]

EBIRD Code 3 Birds seen at least TWICE (presumably won't chase if only seen once) from Land in last 7 days needed by Olaf (please correct if i missed one)
Arctic Loon Nome, Alaska (Olaf) will presumably wait for this one until he gets there
Red-Billed Tropicbird Seal Island, Maine (Olaf) limited access--are there spaces on boat trips now?
http://www.maineseabirdtours.com/

Might be Joe you were thinking of, but yes I agree too

Arctic Loon is only a code 2 though - which Olaf has already. The theory is that Olaf is only on 744 on his blog because he isn't counting the Pine Flycatcher yet as it is a new ABA species which requires official confirmation.

(There was a Hawaiian Petrel reported from land a few weeks back - can't have been too many of them?!)
...

Plain-capped Starthroat in Arizona - did John hear about this before he flew elsewhere? Also Laura Keene up to 629 with Sabine's Gull on 14th June.

 

[JThomas139]

And now Laura Keene up to 649 on ebird and still just to June 24.

 

[bernerjc]

Arctic Loon

Arctic Loon is only a code 2 though - which Olaf has already. The theory is that Olaf is only on 744 on his blog because he isn't counting the Pine Flycatcher yet as it is a new ABA species which requires official confirmation.

(There was a Hawaiian Petrel reported from land a few weeks back - can't have been too many of them?!)
...
QUOTE]
Thanks for clarification on pine flycatcher--makes sense.
My Arctic Loon confusion is because Ebird includes Arctic Loon in its Code 3+ Alert feature along with other rarities--so presumably ebird thinks Arctic Loon is a Code 3. When I didn't see Arctic Loon on Olaf's Code list of Code 3 birds seen, I (probably falsely) assumed he hadn't seen it. Are we sure A) Arctic Loon is a Code 2 and B) Olaf has seen one? -Thanks much

I excluded Hawaiian Petrel as it was seen once flying by a Seawatch spot so didn't seem chaseable to me

 

[trptjoe]

The theory is that Olaf is only on 744 on his blog because he isn't counting the Pine Flycatcher yet as it is a new ABA species which requires official confirmation.

Not a theory; he told me that's what he's doing. It's along the same lines as Vanderpoel and Hayward, where it was (for example) 746+3, with the +3 not counting until officially accepted. Or, in the case of the Hooded Crane, not. Olaf is 744+1. Technically, John is 736+2 and Christian was 675+2 as of his last report; I don't enter them off eBird as there will be gaps to fill in. We'll know soon enough.
The aspect that keeps me from making any kind of educated guess as to the denouement is the second-half push accomplished by a couple of Big Year birders. Jay Lehman's second half seems almost implausible. Neil's backloaded year still had him at 619 at the end of May 2013; Jay was at 488 at the end of May 2013. Nobody would have guessed that he'd end up with 734, which would have been the 3rd-best year ever if not for Neil's concurrent 2013 Big Year.
Joe

 

[Pedro Ramalho]

If he uses ebird (the irony ...) he can relatively easily pick up another two shorebirds on his travels;

By not using eBird John is severely handicapped, I’m assuming that he has a account in eBird but don’t put any list, but doing so features like Target and the Alert system don’t really work for common species. That’s probably the reason why it´s possible that he’s going upload the lists soon.

To fully take advantage of eBird you really have to put yours lists there.

 

[dantheman]

Blog post from John -

http://www.birdingfordevils.com/2016/07/maine-and-florida-snatch-and-grabs.html

 

[Paul Chapman]

Blog post from John -

http://www.birdingfordevils.com/2016/07/maine-and-florida-snatch-and-grabs.html

So both Olaf and John settled for heard only Bicknell's Thrush. :eek!:

 

[Mysticete]

to be fair, the Bicknell's is practically identical to the Gray-cheeked Thrush. Sound is more important there than a physical sighting.

 

[Mysticete]

Ebird is an incredibly useful tool, especially for regularly occurring but potentially tough species. Regular use would have probably allowed him to knock off some low code birds John missed earlier in the year.

But local listserves are still going to provide the best up to date and accurate rare bird reports. And daily ebird reports are still available to read outside of ebird. So it's definitely in someone's best interest to use ebird (and it actually provides a contribution to science and other birders), but I don't think it's hurt John too much so far.

 

[dantheman]

eg Baird's Sandpiper, this month -

http://ebird.org/ebird/map/baisan?n...=Z&mr=on&bmo=7&emo=7&yr=cur&byr=2016&eyr=2016

You can zoom in, but can you get an actual location, or find it on lists?

Point taken about having your own list on ebird to ensure target species aren't missed.

 

[Paul Chapman]

to be fair, the Bicknell's is practically identical to the Gray-cheeked Thrush. Sound is more important there than a physical sighting.

Totally familiar with the similarity of Bicknell's and Grey-cheeked Thrushes.

Identifying a difficult species pair by sound is plainly a preferential approach but my comment was mainly directed at a relatively new birder on an unfamiliar continent having the 'confidence' to be certain that he had recorded the species through sound alone whilst chasing a very high profile record......

 

[Mysticete]

AOU just posted the results of this year's proposals:

http://www.aoucospubs.org/doi/pdf/10.1642/AUK-16-77.1

Of interest to the big year attempt, 2 species have been added to the ABA checklist, Townsend's Storm-Petrel and Woodhouse's Scrub-Jay. I assume everyone has both of the Western Scrub-Jays (although I suppose John could be missing Woodhouse's). Not sure if anyone has the Storm-Petrel given that both John and Olaf haven't done that well on Socal pelagics.

Proposal to split the Eastern Meadowlark did not pass, while the Redpoll lump has been postponed for some reason until next year (So at least there won't be the weirdness of John or Olaf counting something they saw at the beginning of the year that is not countable at the end).

 

[JThomas139]

AOU just posted the results of this year's proposals:

http://www.aoucospubs.org/doi/pdf/10.1642/AUK-16-77.1

Of interest to the big year attempt, 2 species have been added to the ABA checklist, Townsend's Storm-Petrel and Woodhouse's Scrub-Jay. I assume everyone has both of the Western Scrub-Jays (although I suppose John could be missing Woodhouse's). Not sure if anyone has the Storm-Petrel given that both John and Olaf haven't done that well on Socal pelagics.

Proposal to split the Eastern Meadowlark did not pass, while the Redpoll lump has been postponed for some reason until next year (So at least there won't be the weirdness of John or Olaf counting something they saw at the beginning of the year that is not countable at the end).

I thought they were also considering splitting Red Crossbill, but that did not happen. Olaf has been listing 2 provisionals ( in addition to Pine Flycatcher) that presumably were in anticipation of splits. One would be the Scrub-Jay split, I wonder what the other was?

 

[njlarsen]

I thought they were also considering splitting Red Crossbill, but that did not happen. Olaf has been listing 2 provisionals ( in addition to Pine Flycatcher) that presumably were in anticipation of splits. One would be the Scrub-Jay split, I wonder what the other was?

Lilian's Meadowlark would be my guess. He has been in areas where he should pick one up.

Niels