ABA Big Year 2016 (2 Viewers)

[Captain_of_Crunch]

By way of contrast, Olaf has added 3 species this month while John has managed to add 19. Even in June, John was way ahead, adding 61 to Olaf's 34. An interesting comparison in strategy and rewards between "quick starter" Olaf and "tortoise" John.

 

[anothergecko]

Momentous times ... although I'm guessing the next two species may be introduced gamebirds so a little bit of a let down on that too. (Admittedly if it is the Snowcock they are pretty impressive ... )

I'm tipping the humble Code 1 Red Knot to be 750 (+2)

Cheers,

Nigel

 

[dantheman]

I don't think John was a tortoise ... just that he massively targeted rarities in the first 4 months whereas Olaf was trying to clean up/get all the commoner species, as well as twitching. According to the stats presented on this thread I think that John was also ahead of the pace of the previous big year contenders in his own right for much of the time.

Olaf was just 'unlucky' that someone with a 'better' strategy did a big year in the same year. John states that it was suggested by John Pushcock of Alaska (and from Komitos book) that he had to target rarities above all else. Did Olaf really discuss his strategy with others much beforehand I wonder?

 

[dantheman]

I'm tipping Red Knot to be 750

Cheers,

Nigel

Not sure - there's none been reported in Washington, but there is a Baird's Sandpiper in Seattle right now ...

Then he's on a pelagic on Saturday so, yes, extremely unlikely he'll be in the Ruby mountains tonight ...

 

[Captain_of_Crunch]

I don't think John was a tortoise ... just that he massively targeted rarities in the first 4 months whereas Olaf was trying to clean up/get all the commoner species, as well as twitching. According to the stats presented on this thread I think that John was also ahead of the pace of the previous big year contenders in his own right for much of the time.

Olaf was just 'unlucky' that someone with a 'better' strategy did a big year in the same year. John states that it was suggested by John Pushcock of Alaska (and from Komitos book) that he had to target rarities above all else. Did Olaf really discuss his strategy with others much beforehand I wonder?

Tongue firmly in cheek with both nicknames

Thanks for info on the Black Swift as well :t:

 

[Mysticete]

Olaf's strategy was sound in a year without John. He would have gotten the record, and he certainly set a much more rapid pace than the last three or so attempts. After all no one has gone full Komito in the ABA since uh...Komito

Maybe one of the data gurus could do an update on the coded birds John has versus Olaf. At least some of those birds IIRC were species Olaf should be able to make up later in the year.

 

[lewis20126]

Olaf's strategy was sound in a year without John. He would have gotten the record, and he certainly set a much more rapid pace than the last three or so attempts. After all no one has gone full Komito in the ABA since uh...Komito

Maybe one of the data gurus could do an update on the coded birds John has versus Olaf. At least some of those birds IIRC were species Olaf should be able to make up later in the year.

I disagree - surely the best strategy is always to go for the available rarities, IF they are not certain to reappear later in the year.

It's a bit like me not going for a quality rarity in the UK for my life list, because "there will probably be another in the next ten years" - a flawed strategy and one which leaves me with several major gaps in the my B&I life list, after many years (aside from all those I've missed whilst away).

cheers, alan

 

[NYCbirder]

Not sure I would fully count out Olaf yet. It sounds like his strategy from the beginning has been to defer heavy Alaska until the fall, so I'm thinking he picks up a good half-dozen of John's species in Sept/Oct and probably more. Granted that alone won't be enough, and any further damage to John would be neutralized if John essentially shadow's Olaf's Alaska plans to ensure they both get any new rarities, but this competition is not quite over yet. I'd put the odds right now at 2-1 in favor of John.

 

[Captain_of_Crunch]

http://brucemactavish1.blogspot.co.uk/2016/07/common-swift-at-cape-race-newfoundland.html

Update by Bruce MacTavish on the recent Common Swift at Cape Race. Interestingly, there is a comment relating to another Common Swift found in Montreal in 2007, which was identified as a Chimney Swift at the time.

 

[trptjoe]

<<Maybe one of the data gurus could do an update on the coded birds John has versus Olaf. At least some of those birds were species Olaf should be able to make up later in the year.>>

You can see those in the Coded Birds Excel sheet I recently posted.
Also, Christian went through the same sheet and he's actually at 690 + 2, so his eBird number is correct, he believes; he may change that on his blog to reflect the way we're used to seeing it (i.e. Olaf at 747 + 1; John at 748 +2). However, I've given him credit for Woodhouse's, so I think I'm still one short. I'll check again with him.
Joe

 

[Paul Chapman]

Also, Christian went through the same sheet and he's actually at 690 + 2, so his eBird number is correct, he believes; he may change that on his blog to reflect the way we're used to seeing it (i.e. Olaf at 747 + 1; John at 748 +2). However, I've given him credit for Woodhouse's, so I think I'm still one short. I'll check again with him.
Joe

Joe

I've finally got him to tally with eBird. He is 691+2. From the previous 688 add:-
Northern Wheatear
Common Myna
Woodhouse's Scrub-Jay
Mexican Violetear
Plain-capped Starthroat

All the best

 

[trptjoe]

Paul,
Yep; I just heard back from Christian, who saw that I'd missed the Starthroat. You're correct: he's officially at 691 + 2. As he wrote to me, "Onward to 700!"

Joe

 

[Paul Chapman]

Paul,
Yep; I just heard back from Christian, who saw that I'd missed the Starthroat. You're correct: he's officially at 691 + 2. As he wrote to me, "Onward to 700!"

Joe

Joe

Plenty of options available to him still
Code 1 - 7 species
Ruffed Grouse
Cory's Shearwater
Great Shearwater
Audubon's Shearwater
Wilson's Storm-Petrel
Calliope Hummingbird
MacGillivray's Warbler

Code 2 - 29 species
Himalayan Snowcock
Gray Partridge
Spruce Grouse
White-tailed Ptarmigan
Dusky Grouse
Sooty Grouse
Greater Prairie-Chicken
Black-capped Petrel
Buller's Shearwater
Band-rumped Storm-Petrel
Black Storm-Petrel
Yellow Rail
Mountain Plover
Dovekie
Scripps's Murrelet
Thayer's Gull
Iceland Gull
Bridled Tern
Northern Hawk Owl
Great Gray Owl
Northern Saw-whet Owl
Black Swift
American Three-toed Woodpecker
Black-backed Woodpecker
Island Scrub-Jay
Smith's Longspur
McCown's Longspur
McKay's Bunting
White-winged Crossbill

All the best

 

[Paul Chapman]

So John needs 11 Code 1 & 2 species:-
Red Knot
Baird's Sandpiper
Buff-breasted Sandpiper
Harris's Sparrow
Himalayan Snowcock
Gray Partridge
Mottled Petrel
Buller's Shearwater
Yellow Rail
Smith's Longspur
McKay's Bunting

Subject to acceptance of Cuban Vireo & Pine Flycatcher, that produces 761.

The maximum 'conversion' of Sandy Komito's total is 764 (I think) 748 less Black-backed Wagtail & Crested Myna plus the following 18 subsequent splits & feral species Cackling Goose, Mexican Whip-poor-will, Pacific Wren, Sagebrush Sparrow, Woodhouse's Scrub-Jay, Egyptian Goose, Gunnison Sage-Grouse, Sooty Grouse, Ridgway's Rail, Purple Swamphen, Rosy-faced Lovebird, Nanday Parakeet, Green Parakeet, Black-crested Titmouse, Common Myna, McKay's Bunting, Scaly-breasted Munia & Californian Condor.

All the best

 

[dantheman]

Gray Partridge now on John's list ...

 

[JThomas139]

Yellow-legged Gull issue

Since John is just about at the record, I'm going to mention again that the Yellow-legged Gull he saw in Massachusetts is pretty likely to not be accepted by the State records committee because a hybrid (LesserBB x Herring) can't be ruled out.
Jeff

 

[JThomas139]

Here is the comparison again of coded birds seen only by John or Olaf. Thirteen for John, four for Olaf. I list my estimate of the likelihood each bird will remain a stopper - Low, Medium, High. Please feel free to weigh in on these estimates. It seems that only a handful of birds are really off the table (two seen by John, one by Olaf).


Coded birds seen by John not Olaf:
Brambling 3 L
Common Sandpiper 3 M
Cuban Vireo 5 H
Gray-tailed Tattler 3 L
Hawaiian Petrel 3 M
Kelp Gull 4 M
Long-toed Stint 3 L
Pin-tailed Snipe 5 H
Ruddy Ground-Dove 3 L
Rustic Bunting 3 L
Smew 3 M (or maybe L)
White-tailed Tropicbird 3 L
Yellow-legged Gull 4 L (because it won't be accepted)

Coded birds seen by Olaf not John:
Great Knot 4 M
Great Skua 3 L
Hawfinch 4 H
Trindade Petrel 3 M

If all of the low-probability birds are seen, the remaining M and H birds are 6-3 in favor of John. So this thing isn't over, we need to see how it plays out in Alaska.

 

[Mysticete]

The maximum 'conversion' of Sandy Komito's total is 764 (I think) 748 less Black-backed Wagtail & Crested Myna plus the following 18 subsequent splits & feral species Cackling Goose, Mexican Whip-poor-will, Pacific Wren, Sagebrush Sparrow, Woodhouse's Scrub-Jay, Egyptian Goose, Gunnison Sage-Grouse, Sooty Grouse, Ridgway's Rail, Purple Swamphen, Rosy-faced Lovebird, Nanday Parakeet, Green Parakeet, Black-crested Titmouse, Common Myna, McKay's Bunting, Scaly-breasted Munia & Californian Condor.

All the best

We should also add Budgerigar to the extirpated list; it was removed from the ABA list in the last year or so and thus is no longer countable (I believe the last "countable" bird died a year or so ago

In addition:
I don't think we can assume all of those were species Sandy saw during his Big Year. Many of the exotics for instance have only gone through massive range expansion in the years after his attempt, and would have been very local and barely present during the ABA year. Also, a lot of exotics live in somewhat marginal habitats that a big year birder would avoid outside of getting some other established exotic or a vagrant. For instance, a big year birder in California during the 90's would be targeting the Chaparral and coasts heavily, for the regional specialties, not places like the Los Angeles flood control channel or random suburbs (short of a vagrant showing up of course). And traditionally, during the time that Sandy was working, the understanding was that you couldn't bank rarities (and exotic bird distribution before ebird, especially California, was mostly on the local level).

Purple Swamphens for instance would have been confined to the vicinity of around Pembroke Pines, as 1998 is very close to there time of introduction. Scaly-breasted Munias and the other introductions may have been similarly local. Most birders I know for instance specifically target things like Green Parakeets or Common Mynas...I know I did not run into any in Texas and Florida during more general birding (In my case, the Green Parakeets were seen at a water fountain by a chain hardware store, while the mynas were seen at a Burger King. Not exactly must see birder stops)

McKay's Bunting and Gunnison Sage Grouse have very local and weird distributions. The bunting I suppose is sometimes found in AK sites like Gambell, Nome, etc during migration. The grouse would have needed a dedicated trip, so I feel it was unlikely to be seen during Komito's year.

It's also possible some of the more widespread birds weren't seen. Look at John's attempt this year. If no one knew that Black Swifts were a separate species (as a hypothetical example), and he didn't go out of his way to see one, would you automatically he logged it if it you looked at his list 10 years from now? Identification is also a concern. Where did John log Sagebrush Sparrow? If the only place he saw this species was say...in Arizona in winter..did he take the time to sort Bell's from Sagebrush?

This is why a lot of care needs to be made when trying to update someone else's list from almost 20 years ago.

 

[Mysticete]

If all of the low-probability birds are seen, the remaining M and H birds are 6-3 in favor of John. So this thing isn't over, we need to see how it plays out in Alaska.[/QUOTE]

I agree. If Olaf spends a lot of time in Alaska he can eliminate a good chunk of John's lead

I would still say John has the advantage but its not as large as some people make it out to be.

 

[JThomas139]

So John needs 11 Code 1 & 2 species:-

The maximum 'conversion' of Sandy Komito's total is 764 (I think) 748 less Black-backed Wagtail & Crested Myna plus the following 18 subsequent splits & feral species Cackling Goose, Mexican Whip-poor-will, Pacific Wren, Sagebrush Sparrow, Woodhouse's Scrub-Jay, Egyptian Goose, Gunnison Sage-Grouse, Sooty Grouse, Ridgway's Rail, Purple Swamphen, Rosy-faced Lovebird, Nanday Parakeet, Green Parakeet, Black-crested Titmouse, Common Myna, McKay's Bunting, Scaly-breasted Munia & Californian Condor.

All the best

When Sandy did his big year in 1998 the "R-value" of regular code 1+2 birds was 657. Today it is 673, which includes California Condor which is a code 2 bird now that it is countable again.

There have been 18 additions to the list:
2016 Woodhouse's Scrub-Jay
2015 California Condor
2014 Egyptian Goose
2014 Ridgway's Rail
2013 Gray-headed Swamphen
2013 Bell's Sparrow
2013 Scaly-breasted Munia
2012 Rosy-faced Lovebird
2012 Nanday Parakeet
2010 Mexican Whip-poor-will
2010 Pacific Wren
2008 Common Myna
2007 Sooty Grouse
2004 Cackling Goose
2003 Yellow-chevroned Parakeet
2002 Black-crested Titmouse
2000 Gunnison Sage-Grouse
2000 Green Parakeet

And two deletions from the list:
2007 Yellow-chevroned Parakeet
2004 Crested Myna

Note that Yellow-chevroned Parakeet was first added and then deleted! So in effect 17 additions and 1 deletion.

So the net increase is 18 - 2 = 16. Adding to 748 we get 763. Note that McKay's Bunting has been on the list since before 1979 and Black-backed Wagtail was code 3.

So when someone hits 764 we can say that they have broken the record by any measure!