Upton Warren (60 Viewers)

[Woodchat]

Not so flat afterall, there's no timetable in nature.

Hi Gav,

I think you mean that nature is inherently variable. Statistics is designed to cope with this and quantification of variability is a key feature of this discipline.

Nature most definitely does have a timetable and bird movements in response to seasonal cycles are just one manifestation of this. From a scientific viewpoint, the quantitative paradigm offers us by far the best chance of understanding the underlying patterns and trends. I find the timing of events in nature extremely fascinating and beautiful in their complexity :t:

 

[woodwolf]

Hi Gav,

I think you mean that nature is inherently variable. Statistics is designed to cope with this and quantification of variability is a key feature of this discipline.

Nature most definitely does have a timetable and bird movements in response to seasonal cycles are just one manifestation of this. From a scientific viewpoint, the quantitative paradigm offers us by far the best chance of understanding the underlying patterns and trends. I find the timing of events in nature extremely fascinating and beautiful in their complexity :t:

there you go Gavo, no more excuses for being late 8-P

 

[Gert Corfield]

there you go Gavo, no more excuses for being late 8-P

I suspect the Avocets calculated their Mean, Median, Mode and Range and after calculating their 99% confidence interval decided to arrive today.

 

[Phil Andrews]

It is with regret that we understand that Joyce Jacobs has sadly passed away. Up until a few years ago Joyce regularly accompanied Arthur on his visits to the reserve until ill-health took over. As a result Joyce was a familiar face around the reserve, often keeping Arthurs more risque humour in check! I recall it always irked Arthur thay Joyce got to see Snowy Owl on Fetlar which he missed. We wish Arthur well at this difficult time.

 

[forgetfulelephant]

I suspect the Avocets calculated their Mean, Median, Mode and Range and after calculating their 99% confidence interval decided to arrive today.

OR perhaps this was the only holiday booking they could get cheap!

Anyway what ever the answer I'm glad to see them!

Rob

 

[forgetfulelephant]

It is with regret that we understand that Joyce Jacobs has sadly passed away. Up until a few years ago Joyce regularly accompanied Arthur on his visits to the reserve until ill-health took over. As a result Joyce was a familiar face around the reserve, often keeping Arthurs more risque humour in check! I recall it always irked Arthur thay Joyce got to see Snowy Owl on Fetlar which he missed. We wish Arthur well at this difficult time.

That's sad news. My thoughts are with him too.
Just asking after him this morning in the hide.

 

[Sy V]

I managed to mince around most of the Reserve today at something akin to a snails pace hindered by my delicate back and equipped, not only with the usual bins bag and camera, but also with mic, headphones and recorder. I went to the Flashes first after having taken a slight detour via the archery field to capture the latest photo of the hide and whilst getting in to position I saw the two Avocets circle the Flashes twice before returning to the sanctuary of the Moors. Why they didn't land is open to debate but the presence of contractors and roar of power tools probably didn't help.

On my way into the Flashes as I was mincing along the boardwalk, I bumped into a couple of lads who had also seen the Avocets aborted landing. I was busy trying to record and photograph three Treecreepers that were flitting around the Hen Brook area.

I then proceeded to the area of the Avocet hide and used the new openings in the fence to view a totally deserted Flashes. On my way back I noticed the insect trap situated adjacent to the old Feeding Station area.

There were a few large gulls around the various pools, this LBBG was one of them that I managed to capture against today's very gloomy skies..

 

[Woodchat]

I suspect the Avocets calculated their Mean, Median, Mode and Range and after calculating their 99% confidence interval decided to arrive today.

That's an interesting thought, Gert.

I suspect these early-arriving birds are following their instincts and, by arriving earlier than others, they stand the best chance of setting up the best territory on the flashes - hence maximising their reproductive success. Instinctively, they may well be 'calculating' their best survival chances. Obviously, there will be increasing pressure on each pair as the population continues to expand.

It's just unfortunate that any advantage this pioneering pair may have had may be rubbed out by the ongoing hide-building activities (thanks to Sy for pointing out the full picture). I think I could've predicted that one back in December. Wait a minute, I think I did...8-P

 

[Sy V]

Like Rob, I managed a record shot of the Avocet advanced party. They came no closer than this during my stay in the hide.

The Curlew flock (numbering approx 14 birds) commuted between the islands and the field behind the Moors car park.

We were also privileged to witness the relatively rare sight of some close fishing in the shallows by this GCG.

The Shelduck were very active with the drake harassing the hen almost constantly, which occasionally meant that they flew by quite close to the hide.

 

[upstarts1979]

It is with regret that we understand that Joyce Jacobs has sadly passed away. Up until a few years ago Joyce regularly accompanied Arthur on his visits to the reserve until ill-health took over. As a result Joyce was a familiar face around the reserve, often keeping Arthurs more risque humour in check! I recall it always irked Arthur thay Joyce got to see Snowy Owl on Fetlar which he missed. We wish Arthur well at this difficult time.

well put Phil
and echoed

 

[Gavo]

Hi Gav,

I think you mean that nature is inherently variable. Statistics is designed to cope with this and quantification of variability is a key feature of this discipline.

Nature most definitely does have a timetable and bird movements in response to seasonal cycles are just one manifestation of this. From a scientific viewpoint, the quantitative paradigm offers us by far the best chance of understanding the underlying patterns and trends. I find the timing of events in nature extremely fascinating and beautiful in their complexity :t:

I stand corrected, indeed I was referring to the variability of nature, I can not put things as scientific as that Dave unfortunately :-C

 

[Woodchat]

I stand corrected, indeed I was referring to the variability of nature, I can not put things as scientific as that Dave unfortunately :-C

Don't worry about that Gav - I think everyone knew what you meant. I was being pedantic (an unfortunate trait I've inherited from one or two of my UW companions - mentioning no names )

Attached is the updated correlation, r(8) = 0.943, this year's data-point in red.:t:

 

[upstarts1979]

Sunday's Work Party

Sorry to be a pain. But just to say that there are plenty of biscuits and squash for Sunday's work party, which now has an added urgency owing to the Avos return.
We have found several faults in the fence and the area around the new hide will need plenty of attention. This is in addition to the normal remedial work required.
Weather looks great for Sunday honest!
JohnB

 

[Phil Andrews]

Monthly listing

As something a little different this year I will be keeping a note all the species that appear each month over the course of 2012, probably to be weaved into an article for the annual report. January finished with a total of 81 species and February is on 72 so far.

During February has anyone noted any of the following:
Common Gull, Meadow Pipit, Skylark, Chiffchaff, Coal Tit, Rook, Raven

 

[upstarts1979]

As something a little different this year I will be keeping a note all the species that appear each month over the course of 2012, probably to be weaved into an article for the annual report. January finished with a total of 81 species and February is on 72 so far.

During February has anyone noted any of the following:
Common Gull, Meadow Pipit, Skylark, Chiffchaff, Coal Tit, Rook, Raven

Coal tit singing in east track gardens on Wednesday 15th Feb
I have seen 62 this month. Not sure there has been a mipit this month though.

 

[Woodchat]

As something a little different this year I will be keeping a note all the species that appear each month over the course of 2012, probably to be weaved into an article for the annual report. January finished with a total of 81 species and February is on 72 so far.

During February has anyone noted any of the following:
Common Gull, Meadow Pipit, Skylark, Chiffchaff, Coal Tit, Rook, Raven

Def had coal tit this month (put it in the book) and Meadow Pipit flying over the climbing frame by the sailing pool two Sundays ago.
Two Skylarks over last work party. Raven last Saturday.

 

[Gavo]

Don't worry about that Gav - I think everyone knew what you meant. I was being pedantic (an unfortunate trait I've inherited from one or two of my UW companions - mentioning no names )

Attached is the updated correlation, r(8) = 0.943, this year's data-point in red.:t:

Interesting, I wish you could do my stats for my independent study Dave, I've just discovered I have dyscalculia, which is why I struggle with numbers,especially statistics.

 

[Gavo]

As something a little different this year I will be keeping a note all the species that appear each month over the course of 2012, probably to be weaved into an article for the annual report. January finished with a total of 81 species and February is on 72 so far.

During February has anyone noted any of the following:
Common Gull, Meadow Pipit, Skylark, Chiffchaff, Coal Tit, Rook, Raven

Yes Phil, I had two rooks fly over today when I was walking round the north moors

 

[Woodchat]

Interesting, I wish you could do my stats for my independent study Dave, I've just discovered I have dyscalculia, which is why I struggle with numbers,especially statistics.

Would be a pleasure Gav - just pass you're coursework my way. Can't help you in exams though.

 

[Gavo]

Would be a pleasure Gav - just pass you're coursework my way. Can't help you in exams though.

If only it were allowed Dave, I think it is a serious offence, I will find out the legalities, thankyou for the offer though, very much appreciated :t: