New Breeding birds for the UK (1 Viewer)

[Nightranger]

I have been fascinated by the spread of the little egret in recent years and recently saw a prediction for cattle egret as the next breeding species in the UK, so what is the most likely species?

I know this subject has been re-visited in various forms for a number of years but it is a great topic to discuss. My candidate would be the great white egret because cattle egrets made a Transatlantic crossing coupled with massive expansion around 40+ years ago but the accompanying spread did not take in the UK or equivalent latitudes in North America. By contrast, the great white egret has appeared in the UK in moderate but long-staying numbers in the last few decades.

Putting aside the marginal evidence for eagle owls, we can also discount waxwings because their movements show a steady traverse south in response to food followed by a sudden disappearance in spring. Redwings and fieldfares by contrast, show a movement south and west in harsh winters but are sometimes characterised by large mortality events when food runs out. Both species do not seem to be able to make long distance returns and this may account for the low-number breeding records in the northeast. Of course, climate change says that northern species are less likely to be new colonists unless we count the scarlet rosefinch but it may not be just about this factor.

Displacement may also argue for the influx of new breeding records given human pressure has almost certainly pushed sinensis cormorants west along with good breeding successes. Warblers are always a good bet but they tend to make long distance movements when the time is right a la cattle egrets and this is why my money is on the great white egret. Discuss!

 

[Hotspur]

Bit left field this but what about Paddyfield Warbler, first breeding record for Holland this year. Couple of years and then a pair at Minsmere?

 

[jurek]

AFAIK, sinensis Cormorants are breeding with carbo in inland Britain for years.

 

[Jane Turner]

Welcome back Ian, it seems like years.

It is! That's why.

Where have you been, surely not banged up for two years for lamping a pigeon fancier?

 

[KnockerNorton]

AFAIK, sinensis Cormorants are breeding with carbo in inland Britain for years.

Aren't most of the inland birds sinensis? Sinensis being freshwater breeders and carbo coastal? Or was that 'prop-angler-da'?

 

[desgreene]

I think your money might be safe on Great White Egret. But I was fascinated by the failed breeding attempt of Black-winged Stilt last year at Martin Mere, so perhaps that might be an outside bet.

ps. Another welcome back from me Ian!

 

[Nightranger]

Thanks Jane and Des.

It is good to be back now that I no longer work for the RSPB and do not get to talk about birds on a daily basis. Incidentally, if Morton should read this, don't bother coming in to pick a fight with me because you will be wasting your time.

I like the idea of Paddyfield warbler being a long shot for future breeding and I would not be surprised if one of the near-European species provides us with a shock. Although I am not arguing against climate change, I am not completely convinced that this explains the spread of little egrets and may be a bit of a red herring when trying to guess the species that is most likely to be the next breeding example. Herons and egrets seem to have undergone periodic irruptions at various times and it is strange that the cattle egret spread did not have much of a northern component until the birds reached the New World.

Ian

 

[StuartReeves]

I've heard rumours that cattle egret has recently bred in the UK. As to long shots, the recent records of presumed breeding by Pectoral Sandpiper must fit that one.

 

[Andrew]

Spoonbills?

A recent snippet in BB suggested they have tried but failed.

 

[sideshow bob]

I've heard rumours that cattle egret has recently bred in the UK.

I've heard that too - "somewhere in the south west" were the words, I think.

I think the wishful (or indeed wistful) speculation of this thread could be doubled by splitting (birders' favourite word!) it into two parts:

1) species which, through natural expansion of their breeding range, will eventually establish themselves here as regular breeders (and maybe not necessarily in small numbers);

2) species which literally come out of nowhere and breed here, possibly as a one-off, i.e spring overshoots of species which are not undergoing range expansion.

 

[John Cantelo]

A tricky game this - remember Serin folks? Tipped to colonise the UK from way, way back, but still not an established breeder. Personally I'd be more surprised to hear that Cattle Egret hadn't attempted to breed by now than the news that it has!

My outside tips would include Thrush Nightingale & Blyth's Reed Warbler in Scotland - both expanding their range in 'Scandinavia'. Further east I don't think you can wholly discount River Warbler in the longer run. Bluethroat has attempted to breed in Scotland, but my tip would be SE England or east Anglia. OK there are few spring records, but they've expanded their range hugely in northern France,
John

 

[CornishExile]

I've heard that too - "somewhere in the south west" were the words, I think.

Explicitly referred to in a recent yearlisting book (which had it been true and the start of a colonisation would have been rather irresponsible).

However, I seem to recall no mention of it in the BB Rare Breeders, which given the locality and high number of well-connected local birders would be strange if it weren't officially recorded, so am inclined to think it was all just rumour and no more.

ce

 

[pianoman]

Cattle Egret

Was going to mention Cattle Egret, you got there first!

 

[NickPatel92]

Do the Ring billed gulls in Ireland always go back to the US after Winter? with some of the numbers around there, i'd give them a bet or at least a hybrid with a common gull?

 

[sideshow bob]

Explicitly referred to in a recent yearlisting book (which had it been true and the start of a colonisation would have been rather irresponsible).

However, I seem to recall no mention of it in the BB Rare Breeders, which given the locality and high number of well-connected local birders would be strange if it weren't officially recorded, so am inclined to think it was all just rumour and no more.

ce

Yes, you're right - thanks for the memory jog! Knew I'd seen it somewhere.

Worst £8 I've ever spent.

Serin was mentioned earlier - wasn't Penduline Tit similarly tipped, and has, as far as we know, similarly faltered?

 

[John Cantelo]

Serin was mentioned earlier - wasn't Penduline Tit similarly tipped, and has, as far as we know, similarly faltered?

A nest was found years back in Kent (no birds, adult or young, or eggs were found as I recall). I still think there's a good chance that breeding could occur somewhen, but I admit I'm more doubtful about it getting established here,

John

 

[dave123]

glossy ibis?

 

[sideshow bob]

Do the Ring billed gulls in Ireland always go back to the US after Winter? with some of the numbers around there, i'd give them a bet or at least a hybrid with a common gull?

Must admit, I've often thought, that with either periodic influxes of certain species, and regularly returning individuals of others, is it possible for the UK to gain a new breeding gull species? Maybe tucked away in one of the thousands of colonies across the land, especially with birds moving (or expanding) away from traditional coastal areas. For example, what happened to all the Laughing Gulls from 2005? Dispersed obviously, but did a pair breed somewhere?

 

[nickupton]

I seem to remember reading that Pectoral sandpiper occurs in western Scotland throughout the summer. No confirmed breeding though?

 

[Twite]

There's a lot of reports of Ring-necked Ducks annually for Ireland over the last few years, probably some repeat birds. They look like a good bet.

Twite.