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Corona virus threat to birding (2 Viewers)

When you talk about ‘locking down the elderly’, I think of our over 70s age group in this country who have mostly worked their entire working lives, paying their taxes, paying their Nat Ins contributions to fund our NHS.

You make this sound as if they've all been shackled, it would be purely voluntary and in their own best interest. If An elderly person wishes to increase their chances of contracting the virus and possibly dying, then don't take the advice. It is advice, that's all.
 
I don’t see how using language like ‘’ locking down the elderly now ‘’ as per your earlier post, reflects a greater level of care for individuals! This is not a policy coming out of a community successful in managing health public care but a community very conscious of actually NOT managing community health care! It’s an admission that historically underfunding health care over the past 10 years has resulted in the NHS/GP services being very ill equipped to deal with any like an outbreak of communicable disease at this level.

When you talk about ‘locking down the elderly’, I think of our over 70s age group in this country who have mostly worked their entire working lives, paying their taxes, paying their Nat Ins contributions to fund our NHS.

They deserve BETTER than to be TOLD to stay in their own homes for months on end as a means of effectively rationalising health care for those members of the population who are just as responsible for spreading infection. Care for our old people should be a PRIORITY including their emotional and mental well being.

It’s disgraceful that we are not prepared for a pandemic - we have known for years/decades the potential for global health crises.

There are more humane methods of infection control, than shutting up our elderly (already some of whom are very lonely and already isolated) and our immuno-compromised citizens, including widespread testing (to improve epidemiology) not just testing those critically ill. Testing all frontline health care workers. Setting up isolation ‘field’ hospitals, rapid manufacture of ventilators and personal protection equipment etc and carrying out social distancing in the wider community.

The decisions being made at the ministerial and international governmental level about the response to coronavirus is being largely driven by economic and national political self interest not compassion and love for vulnerable members of our communities and not it seems by the best advice from WHO..

I’m a realist and understand the necessary dynamics here but lets call a spade a spade.

Shutting people up in theirs homes and closing down businesses is not an effective response on its own and worse, increases anxieties, triggers panic buying, causes extreme economic hardship.

Re those that are comparing Covid-19 to Flu - Seasonal Flu epidemics are spread over a 5-6 months period so while straining health care, the infection curve is not as steep. in addition the incubation period (non symptomatic) for most Flu types are 2-3 days rather than the reported 5-14 for Covid-19 - making it harder to control infection outbreaks.

Btw All those ‘dismissing’ Covid-19 as not as bad as a seasonal Flu outbreak, are forgetting, certainly in the UK, elderly and vulnerable people annually get vaccinated- there is none for Covid. nor is there likely to be for 12-18mnths. As for fatality rates, there is NO known fatality rate for Covid-19 and wont be until the pandemic is over. There is only the CFR (fatality of known cases) and even that can be under or over estimated depending on the number of un-resolved cases.

Sorry about the long rant but you only have to see national borders shutting down, panic/greed buying in the shops, the denial of sections of society essential testing and demanding our old folk be shut up in their homes as an answer to this health care crisis, etc to be reminded how easily we can loose sight of socially acceptable mores.

Don't misunderstand me - although I'd agree my terse phrasing will have come across as a bit harsh. Tough love.

And whatever people say or think on here won't affect the reality of what our governments decide ;)


If people are serious about protecting their elderly relatives then there are tough decisions to be made. My parents are down in France, elderly, and with serious underlying health issues - they need maximum protection now tbh. Likewise we have elderly neighbours either side of us here in Falmouth. They need a sensible approach to minimising anyone visiting them who may have the coronavirus (including their own relatives). That this should involve an increase in positive care, community action etc is a given imo - it's not about abandonment.

(I'm partly basing my thinking on the fact that certified- coronavirus recovered individuals would then be able to visit relatives, with precautions. Outside trips would be permissable (eg to certain safe locations) etc.)


Will be interesting to see how the peak in Italy comes and how effective lockdown efforts are in eliminating the virus and life getting back to normal.

Happy to be wrong, but unless work and life as we know it shuts down this won't be going away for a long time yet.
 
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Jan is right. China had 4 new positive cases yesterday and that's because they have been in lockdown for nearly two months. You just need to look at the curves. The same applies to the first Italian clusters (much smaller of course because they are small towns) that went into lockdown on February 21st. They have had no new positives for a few days now. And that's because they were in lockdown. The one original cluster in the Veneto region did even better as they tested almost everyone, thus putting more people in isolation (the same thing was done in South Korea) and they have had far less cases and deaths.

The answer is lockdown. Even if it can't be forcibly enforced like in China, going out without a valid (buying food or medicines, assisting relatives in need) reason is a criminal offence in Italy, so it has been taken seriously and towns are empty. Also lots of celebrities recorded adverts that run continuously on TV, saying that people need to stay at home to avoid spreading contagion.

Social distancing will never work if it isn't enforced.

Our 'experts' are of the opinion that if we did this, the virus would just bounce back once the lockdown was rescinded. At the moment, all we have are a lot of opinions and conflicting advice, even the specialists can't agree between themselves.

The proof of the strategy will be when China and Italy ease restictions, only then will we know if it really worked.
 
I still wonder why basically all of the western world ignores how Korea dealt with it. At this moment, they are basically winning, and the main thing they did is the mass testing and then isolation. Yes, it costs money, but isn't it in the end cheaper than all the other half-assed solutions? I am afraid that the lockdown is efficient, but only if sustained, so it's a great bridge to keep people form dying before mass testing is deployed... but it's not being deployed.

The worst thing is seeing how such big parts of the world are going into possible disaster and having no way to influence it personally by an inch. I already don't really meet any people while in Poland :)
 
I am with you totally apart from this bit above. Lockdown works, as I have said above, and I have not seen panic buying except when the first cases exploded three weeks ago. Also people are reacting very well here, with impromptu Flash mobs and using social media, personally I haven't perceived anxiety but awareness of the need to stay put to avoid contagion.

I have, today,
no baby food, nappies, wipes, hand gel, soap of any kind, bread, eggs, milk, toilet rolls and many canned goods are all gone. The shelves are bare and I think it will get worse before it gets better.

The media have fuelled it with their sensationalist reporting, totally irresponsible IMO and for what, sales.
 
I still wonder why basically all of the western world ignores how Korea dealt with it. At this moment, they are basically winning, and the main thing they did is the mass testing and then isolation. Yes, it costs money, but isn't it in the end cheaper than all the other half-assed solutions? I am afraid that the lockdown is efficient, but only if sustained, so it's a great bridge to keep people form dying before mass testing is deployed... but it's not being deployed.

Loss of personal privacy and infringement of personal data information - I understand there was an app telling everyone basically where anyone had been and how you may have been in contact with them. And then loads of testing for anyone who may have come into contact, yes.

People wouldn't have allowed that invasion of their personal data.

I'd agree with you otherwise.

;)
 
EU to close all external borders to non-EU citizens!

If anyone was still speculating about birding holiday in the not-yet-locked countries, this is the end of that.
 
Latest news from here in PA: The governor has ordered all "non-essential" businesses closed for the next 14 days. Pharmacies, gas stations, and groceries to remain open. All restaurants to be take-out or delivery only.

The last is key to me. I don't cook. I live on take-away. :smoke:

Edit: Lehigh and Northampton Counties also both declare state of emergency. TBH, I think that just closes public offices and mobilizes funds.

And FYI, there is one case in Lehigh and one case in Northampton. The Northampton case is a medical professional who works at a hospital in Lehigh.
 
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This was in the back of my mind when talking about 'Locking up the elderly'

https://www.google.com/search?q=loc...3.69i57j0l7.5313j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

Ha ;)

Seriously though, even as I was writing that, I was thinking of all the ways I would sneak out of the house to carry on birding unabated by the societal restrictions. But your BBC link quotes BJ apparently saying the elderly/vulnerable can still go out to exercise so that includes taking a brisk and direct route to the local patch with the bins and self-isolating from other members of the public. Life retaining normalcy then on some level :-O

Even if the ‘curfew’ becames enforced as in In Italy, I think even there, outdoor exercise is permitted?
 
I am afraid that the lockdown is efficient, but only if sustained, so it's a great bridge to keep people form dying before mass testing is deployed... but it's not being deployed.

Apparently they are thinking about mass testing now. Or at least that's what the TV is saying tonight. Also because it's what has been done in the Veneto region, which has had less deaths and less people infected despite having one of the initial "clusters".

Also apparently the curve has been flattening a bit in the past couple of days, but the results of the lockdown will start to show in 10-15 days.
 
Our 'experts' are of the opinion that if we did this, the virus would just bounce back once the lockdown was rescinded. At the moment, all we have are a lot of opinions and conflicting advice, even the specialists can't agree between themselves.

The proof of the strategy will be when China and Italy ease restictions, only then will we know if it really worked.

Ok, I see your point - everyone relies on different experts, and obviously we don't know what will happen in a few weeks' time, but still in the meantime lives are lost and all experts have agreed that lockdowns save lives because they help to flatten the curve and delay the peak of the epidemic.
 
Apparently they are thinking about mass testing now. Or at least that's what the TV is saying tonight. Also because it's what has been done in the Veneto region, which has had less deaths and less people infected despite having one of the initial "clusters".

Also apparently the curve has been flattening a bit in the past couple of days, but the results of the lockdown will start to show in 10-15 days.

This is really good to hear that somewhere in Europe this is being implemented.

Meanwhile in the Czech Republic there is virtually no access to testing, even if people were in contact with infected people. The government prevents private labs from testing if they don't possess some silly ISO certificates, while the actual reason is that they can do it 3 times cheaper than the labs that do it now which are owned by the PM ... no sorry, by the trust fund he put has absolutely no control of, silly me. When a case of people denied testing gets media attention, they get tested and are usually positive ...

I would expect the lockdown to have a strong effect. The question still remains if the effect will be capitalized upon, because if not, the lockdown would have to stay for maybe years to not be for nothing.
 
Ha ;) BBC link quotes BJ apparently saying the elderly/vulnerable can still go out to exercise so that includes taking a brisk and direct route to the local patch with the bins and self-isolating from other members of the public. Life retaining normalcy then on some level :-O

Glad you're thinking of me, D...!;)
MJB
 
I was just reading about our local hospital network. They are a certified ebola quarantine facility, so they've got the procedures down. They already have overflow triage capacity because of previous flu outbreaks. They've converted all of their walk-up offices to COVID assessment and testing facilities to minimize the potential for ER overloads. And supposedly, their associated labs have testing capacity.

All this despite IMPOTUS.
 
I was just reading about our local hospital network. They are a certified ebola quarantine facility, so they've got the procedures down. They already have overflow triage capacity because of previous flu outbreaks. They've converted all of their walk-up offices to COVID assessment and testing facilities to minimize the potential for ER overloads. And supposedly, their associated labs have testing capacity.

All this despite IMPOTUS.

C'mon, man, be fair. IMPOTUS just “gave himself a perfect 10 out of 10 when asked how he would grade his response to the coronavirus pandemic” going on to say in his infantile phraseology: "It seems to me that if we do a really good job, we'll not only hold the death down to a level that is much lower than the other way, had we not done a good job. . .”. So, cool your jets, everything’s under control.

On a personal note, I just learned that I had my last restaurant meal for awhile. As I was finishing lunch at a local eatery this afternoon, the Governor issued an order closing all “restaurants and bars” in the state until further notice.
 
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