You keep dismissing the Seabird 2000 report as being 12 years old and therefore out of date, yet simultaneously refer to papers from the mid 1990s (published 16 and 17 years ago) to support your argument. Just one example of the numerous inconsistencies and bias in your approach.
Seabird 2000 is out of date and you can tell by the year in which it was undertaken,
The articles support the contention that the problem of overpopulation of the HG has been going on for some time and the government had notice that it would become a threrat to bio-diversity even before Seabird 2000 began.
This is not a problme that suddenly occured.
I am not sure what the "bias" is. Presenting a variety of articles from scholarly to newspapers who are quoting local health officers merely supports a contention that the gull population is not declining as DEFRA would have us believe.
The latest results from an actual survey carried out in the Severn Valley:
"I assessed Cheltenham in 2002 at 57 pairs. The possibility (based on that assessment) is that Cheltenham was first colonised between 1995-2000. In 2011 the bare minimum estimate was 306 pairs (the cherry picker wasn’t tall enough to get suitable views over most of the centre and suburbs). It may be over 500 pairs now. Gloucester, on the other hand, was first colonised in 1967 (3 pairs) and in 2002 I estimated 1,345 pairs and is likely to be over 3,000 pairs now. There are several other smaller colonies in Gloucestershire (Mitcheldean, Sharpness, Lydney, Stonehouse, Brockworth, Ashchurch, etc and yet another new colony in 2012 at Cinderford (5 pairs), all of which I’ve assessed. As for Brighton and the rest of the south coast all the way to London, I know that many of the towns are colonised and though I have no real idea about numbers, I suspect that several colonies are 1,000 pairs plus… In other words, you are both surrounded. It’s not just your street you need to be concerned about…"
What we need is a updated Seabird survey to stop DEFRA quoting their ancient report to the press and health officers everytime the matter gets raised.
IN the US, the government have taken a rational approach to the problem and are dealing with it. There is no denial because they bother to keep up with what is going on in the country and how gulls are impacting other life forms. Read the report and for ease of reference I have copied the sections covering areas where gulls are impacting bio-diversity (something the RSPB would never admit to):
http://seagullcontrol.com/BIZyCart....les.htm&THISGROUP=&CLIENT=SeaGull&ACCOUNT=990
"Managing Gull Damage."
Damage
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1. Property
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The fouling of boats and docks at marinas and accumulations of droppings on other property are common problems associated with gulls.
Rooftop nesting may result in accumulations of droppings, feathers and nesting material that may be drawn into buildings through air conditioning systems or plug roof drains during heavy rains.
Gulls may destroy polyurethane roofing materials , and boat and pool covers.
2. Natural Resources
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Along the Atlantic Coast, herring and great black-backed gulls may negatively affect nesting populations of threatened, endangered, or special concern species of shorebirds.
Gulls have been shown to impact populations of terns, piping plovers, and other special concern species by direct predation on adults, chicks and eggs, and by disturbing nest establishment, feeding, and resting behaviors of shorebirds.
In many of these situations, the larger and more aggressive gulls have displaced shorebirds, and have limited their survival.
3. Agriculture
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Gull depredation on fruit crops such as blueberries and grapes has been reported on Long Island and New Jersey, and can be a substantial cause of loss for individual farmers.
Gulls can also be attracted to cattle feedlots where there is an accessible source of food. In these situations, gull droppings may contaminate cattle food. Gull predation on domestic ducks at commercial duck farms and the transmission of disease to fingerlings at fish hatcheries are other problems associated with gulls.
4. Human Health and Safety
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All gull species jeopardize aircraft safety when they are in or around airport environments and are involved in wildlife-aircraft collisions. Currently, more than one-half of all bird-aircraft strikes in the world involve gulls.
The ingestion of birds into aircraft engines has the potential to compromise human safety by causing engine failure and possible crash of the aircraft. In addition to this hazard, birdstrikes can cause substantial financial losses to the aviation community.
Gulls are attracted to airports by standing water, large areas of short grass along runways and taxiways, and by food resources, such as insects and handouts from people.
The creation of unsanitary conditions at reservoirs occurs when large flocks of gulls use areas for extended periods of time; accumulations of droppings and feathers can render water unfit for human consumption.
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Its time to wake up--force DEFRA to fund a survey and lets assess the problem before more damage is done by the gulls. We are not unique in the world in not having a gull population explosiion--we are just unique in our denial. End the bias toward preservation of gull numbers no matter what and have Seabird 2013 (with objective counters please--not in house RSPB people!).