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Falconidae (2 Viewers)

Balza, U., Lois, N.A., Harrington, K.J., León, F., Pütz, K., Raya-Rey, A., and Ceballos, S.G. (2025). Glacial history and ecological restrictions shape island-scale genetic structure and demography in the southernmost bird of prey [Daptrius australis]. Journal of Biogeography, published online 10 January 2025.
https://doi.org/10.1111/jbi.15083

ABSTRACT
Aim
To understand the influence of Andean uplifts and glacial cycles on South American biodiversity, we delve into the population genetics and evolutionary history of a unique subantarctic island raptor specialised in exploiting marine food webs.

Location
Islands in Tierra del Fuego and Malvinas/Falklands.

Time period
Last glacial period to the present.

Taxon
Phalcoboenus australis [Daptrius australis].

Methods
We used RAD sequencing to assess genetic diversity, population structure and to model demographic history through descriptive and hypothesis-based evolutionary methods.

Results
We found evidence of two independent lineages: one inhabiting the Fuegian archipelago and the other one occurring in the Islas Malvinas/Falkland Islands, with the latter presenting higher genetic diversity and evidence of finer-scale population structure. The best supported demographic scenario places the divergence time of these lineages during the last glacial period (ca. 50,000 years ago), with the occurrence of gene flow during the first 27,000 years after their divergence. Recent demographic modelling supports the general pattern of increasing genetic variability as landmasses were uncovered following the glacial period (i.e., the Fuegian archipelago) in contrast with a decrease in genetic diversity associated to island fragmentation (i.e., in the Islas Malvinas/Falkland Islands).

Main Conclusions
We propose that post-glacial sea level rise and the subsequent isolation across the submerging Patagonian Shelf have driven population fragmentation and recent genetic structure in this species. Our findings advocate for recognising the two identified divergent lineages as distinct conservation units. We highlight the intricate interplay of ecological factors, glacial cycles and population dynamics in shaping the evolutionary trajectory of this unique and threatened raptor species in southern South America.
 
Obiol, J.F., A. Bounas, M. Brambilla, G. Lombardo, S. Secomandi, J.R. Paris, A. Iannucci, J.R. Whiting, G. Formenti, A. Bonisoli-Alquati, G.F. Ficetola, A. Galimberti, J. Balacco, N. Batbayar, A.E. Bragin, M. Caprioli, I. Catry, J.G. Cecere, B. Davaasuren, F. De Pascalis, R. Efrat, K. Erciyas-Yavuz, J. Gameiro, G. Gradev, B. Haase, T.E. Katzner, J. Mountcastle, K. Mikulic, M. Morganti, L.G. Pârâu, A. Rodríguez, M. Sarà, E.-A. Toli, N. Tsiopelas, C. Ciofi, L. Gianfranceschi, E.D. Jarvis, A. Olivieri, K. Sotiropoulos, M. Wink, E. Trucchi, A. Torroni, and D. Rubolini (2025)
Evolutionarily distinct lineages of a migratory bird of prey show divergent responses to climate change
Nature Communications 16: 3503
doi: 10.1038/s41467-025-58617-5

Accurately predicting species’ responses to anthropogenic climate change is hampered by limited knowledge of their spatiotemporal ecological and evolutionary dynamics. We combine landscape genomics, demographic reconstructions, and species distribution models to assess the eco-evolutionary responses to past climate fluctuations and to future climate of an Afro-Palaearctic migratory raptor, the lesser kestrel (Falco naumanni). We uncover two evolutionarily and ecologically distinct lineages (European and Asian), whose demographic history, evolutionary divergence, and historical distribution range were profoundly shaped by past climatic fluctuations. Using future climate projections, we find that the Asian lineage is at higher risk of range contraction, increased migration distance, climate maladaptation, and consequently greater extinction risk than the European lineage. Our results emphasise the importance of providing historical context as a baseline for understanding species’ responses to contemporary climate change, and illustrate how incorporating intraspecific genetic variation improves the ecological realism of climate change vulnerability assessments.
 
By chance, is there an existing subspecies name for the eastern population of Lesser Kestrel? BotW has it as monotypic
We suggested already otherwise:
Corso, A., Viganò M., Jansen, J.J.F.J. & Starnini, L. 2016. Geographical plumage variation in Lesser Kestrel. -Dutch Birding 38 (5): 271-292.

Corso, A., Starnini, L., Viganò, M. & Jansen, J.J.F.J. 2015. A quantitative morphological geographical study from a widely distributed raptor: the Lesser Kestrel Falco naumanni Fleischer, 1818 (Falconiformes Falconidae). Proceedings of the 2nd International Congress “Speciation and Taxonomy”, May 16th-18th 2014, Cefalù-Castelbuono (Italy). - Biodiversity Journal 6: 285-296.
 
See also
 
It's interesting then, given that other paper mentioned came out as recently as 2016, they didn't bother just connecting there ESU to subspecific taxonomy.

As for whether subspecies might turn into species, I would imagine that would be a fruitful area of investigation. Certainly genetic, habitat, and morphological differences might suggest two species are involved
 

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