Feasability of New 1.4×FTZTC ..... ?? (1 Viewer)

[Chosun Juan]

Garr ! Interminable production delays with the new PF 500 f5.6 lens makes me wonder when they'll ever get around to actually producing the 600mm version ... ? Also, with nary a whisper (beyond a wish and an expectation of D6 goodliness filtering down as before) of the D500S, and with the pace of Mirrorless development and virtual drying up of the DSLR development pipeline in the industry, I'm starting to question the economic sense of investing in any potential new DSLR gear ?? (particularly contemplating a D500S and PF 600mm f5.6 rig should such beasts get made for next year ?)

With new Mirrorless EyeAF algorithms coming out in firmware, and a 60MP sensor and at least a 5.1Million Dot EVF sitting in the fabrication catalogue, ripe for a 'Z8' after the Olympics has been run and won, it gots me to thinkin' :brains:


FTZ adapter dimensions 70mm dia × 30.5mm L, weight 135g
https://kenrockwell.com/nikon/mirrorless/lenses/ftz.htm
'F' mount 1.4×TC III dimensions 65mm dia × 24.5mm L, weight 185g
https://kenrockwell.com/nikon/tc14e-iii.htm

Given that the FTZ adapter is just pretty much a 70mm dia × 30.5mm long tube -- what would be the feasibility of designing an all-in-one 1.4×TC with an F mount on the lens end and a Z mount on the camera end ? A 1.4×FTZTC if you will ......

Limiting it to compatibility with the latest electronic F mount lenses,
What would the optical design and layout look like?
What would be the dimensions and weight (design for optical excellence, *don't include any type of tripod mount - leave that to the lens or the camera*)?
Would it reduce the minimum focus distance of the lens?
Would it focus clearly on the highest flying bird or the farthest terrestrial object? What about a Moonshot? Mars? ... or Jupiter and beyond ! ...... ?? :cat:

I'm guessing around ~70mm dia × ~40 mm long, and <200g weight ...... :cat: whaddyareckon ? :h?:

Will Nikon build such a beast? or will it be up to some ingenious 3rd party manufacturer??

I'm thinking that if Nikon's 'Z8' comes in the same size body as the Z7, then all I would have to do is mold a decent size plastic grip or carve a nice wooden one - Hasselblad style to improve the ergos





Chosun :gh:

 

[opticoholic]

It's an interesting idea Chosun. I'd be surprised if it ever happens, but who knows.

I can see how you might end up dreaming up such an idea, since the arrival of native Z-mount super telephoto lenses seems like it could take forever.

I would be reluctant to buy a very expensive new super telephoto lens knowing that the primary long-term camera for it would forever require an adapter (with or without a teleconverter).

My guess is that both Nikon and Canon will drag their heels on native mirrorless super telephoto lenses.

I'm still hoping Olympus will get it together; there you have a small player that is clearly moving in the right direction for bird photographers (although the E-M1X was disappointing to me). At least they have a new super telephoto on the road map.

Dave

 

[Chosun Juan]

Dave, I agree that the chances of Nikon or Canon creating such a beast are slim to non-existent at this time. As the market pressure piles on they are both concentrating on their shoelaces. I reckon they've got one more shot at inspired visionary collaboration in the medium term (but I'll save that for another post on another thread).

I also agree that they'll be very slow in trotting out the native mirrorless mount telephoto. Canon has one on the road map in a couple of years (R mount 100-400L) but the serious stuff is perhaps a daydream in an engineer's head at the moment. Certainly the way the 'EF' mount Diffractive Optics 600 f4 is taking longer than a baby elephant to be born, I think we could pretty safely say that it's going to be another generation away.

That leaves hopes of a true diffractive optics supertelephoto with Nikon's PF ..... with the delays on that I'm not sure whether the 600 f5.6 will debut in 'F' mount, or 'Z' mount.

Certainly, I think that Canon has implemented the better adapter solution with a range of products to suit, though I note that Nikon has now started bundling its FTZ adapter for free (as I posted in the Camera Gear Bargains thread).

I'm pretty sure it will be up to some enterprising Third Party. The opportunity is even there to convert Canon EF mount lenses to Nikon Z mirrorless mount ..... though this would involve twice the amount of hacking (ahem - reverse engineering ! I'm sure the whole thing is quite doable and would be commercially viable too.

I think beyond an ultimate reach rig, the real joy for a general purpose supertelephoto adapted TC setup belongs at f4 lenses (and faster). The only realistic DSLR mount lenses fitting that bill are the Nikon 300 f4 PF (too short really on FF), the Canon 400 f4 DO II, or the yet to be born Canon 500 f4L IS III, and even the Canon 300 f2.8L ISIII (with a 2× EFTZTC). Who knows when Nikon will ever match Canon's new lightweight MkIII lenses with lighter weight (500 and 600 f4 FL and 300 f2.8 FL) MkII's ...... let alone come out with f4 and f2.8 Phase Fresnel supertelephoto's .......

I'd like to see Nikon come out with a 400 f4 PF - that would be a very versatile lens with such an adapter as I propose.

In terms of buying a high end DSLR supertelephoto I'd be comfortable matching it with the next iteration of Pro DSLR (APS-C or FF). I think the D6 and 1DXIII will be sufficiently advanced that you'd get the 10 years service parts life out of them without too much GAS FOMO, and the same would apply to the D500S and 7DMkIII ...... the biggest issue seems to be in any of that stuff getting here anytime soon .....

As you say, at least Olympus is having a crack - so good on them. I was watching some ancient movie the other day (it might have even been "To Catch a Thief" .... ?) when in one scene, up popped this Olympus film camera (I forget the model #). I hope they manage to stick around long term .....





Chosun :gh:

 

[Vespobuteo]

The current Z line is not optimal for most sports/action/wildlife shooters. Nikon are very aware of that.
So a 1.4x TCFTZ would probably not sell much if any.
My guess is no native super-tele-lenses for the Z-line within the next 2-3 years.
Nikon need to get hands on the Sony global shutter sensors first.
What I wonder is what will follow the D500.
I suspect only minor updates in a D500S perhaps, BSI sensor etc.
It's still a hell of a good camera.
With a 400/4 PF it would be even better.
The 500/f5.6 PF is a bit slow on APS-C IMO.

 

[Chosun Juan]

Adapter Tele Converter (ATC)

The current Z line is not optimal for most sports/action/wildlife shooters. Nikon are very aware of that.
So a 1.4x TCFTZ would probably not sell much if any.
My guess is no native super-tele-lenses for the Z-line within the next 2-3 years.
Nikon need to get hands on the Sony global shutter sensors first.
What I wonder is what will follow the D500.
I suspect only minor updates in a D500S perhaps, BSI sensor etc.
It's still a hell of a good camera.
With a 400/4 PF it would be even better.
The 500/f5.6 PF is a bit slow on APS-C IMO.

Vespo, when I started this thought bubble, I had in mind the high resolution Mirrorless cameras that we will see after the DSLR flagships are rolled out. It seems like that might be a 60MP 'Z8' Nikon, and an up to 75MP 'R8' from Canon. Cropping back to APS-C then results in ~26-33 MP depending on the exact factor. As long as we could get 10-12 fps of genuine stick like glue eye tracking AF with that I think a lot of people would be really happy.

The trouble is there's no native long glass, and I agree, that doesn't look likely for 2-3 years. Both Canon and Nikon have made it quite clear that they see the DSLR platform as being the long/fast/lens-high speed sports/action/wildlife/bird flagships in FF and DX. The Z7 from Nikon has not blown us away with new standards of AF performance. So even though when cropped it is ~20MP it won't be replacing the D500 as it is.

Sony obviously didn't read this playbook as it seems that the firmware updates for Eye tracking AF etc have it challenging the D5 in terms of outright performance. This is a real cat amongst the pigeons for CaNikon. :cat: Perhaps the only saving grace at this time is the lack of a full range (particularly a 600 f4 GM) of superteles from Sony - but you'd have to think they're working furiously on that for the Olympics.

As such I think there is a very solid business case for a Third Party to come up with a range (1.25×, 1.4×, 1.7×, and 2×) of FTZTC's and EFTZTC's, (ATC to give them a generic name). We're still talking pretty high end (glass-wise) here, but the alternative at the moment is nada. zip.

I have a friend who shoots a Canon 300 f2.8L ISII with a 2×TC III on an old 7D MkII. The AF and sharpness is pretty impressive.

What concerns me a bit is that the pace of DSLR development and product upgrade will slow to a crawl. You can take the D6 and 1DX III to the bank. I am not so sure about a D500S or a 7DIII. The need for the 7DIII in particular is glaring. Canon seem happy to be getting flogged by the D500 and rest comfortably on the laurels of their glass. Without the pressure of a 7DIII, there is no hurry for a D500S. The 7DIII was possibly due at this year's just gone CP+ ..... who knows when we'll see it now. My guess is possibly not until next year after the release of the FF DSLR flagships ........

I don't expect we'll see the high resolution FF Mirrorless models until after that even. Given that Canon and Nikon are likely to be of zero assistance in engineering any such TC-adapter it will take nearly that long to conceive and design it.

Being able to put Canon EF glass on a Z body (or its seperately ATC enabled R body counterpart) would be fantastic. Canon looks to have designed some very innovative R glass too - I'm particularly thinking of the diminutive 70-200 f2.8.

At some stage I think Nikon will eventually get around to matching the lightweight supertele's from Canon and Sony, as well as fleshing out their PF range too. How awesome would it be to have that choice available to whack on a Z body

Both Canon and Nikon seem to have gone into defensive shoelace gazing mode. If they focused just a little on providing more real choice to the consumer instead of trying to lock them in tightly to their own systems, they might have a lot more, lot happier customers, and a market that is not drastically contracting ...... :cat:






Chosun :gh:

 

[Vespobuteo]

Sigma will probably focus on L-mount lenses. I don't expect much from them when it comes to Z-mount lenses in the near future. There isn't enough Z cameras out there, yet.

"shoelace gazing mode"?
Do you realize what R&D costs? And then they got to sell these products as well. They can't develop and produce stuff than one or two people wants to play with in their backyard. That's a lot of pressure and they have to focus. Add a few cyclones over the years and you understand that it's hard work.

I think both Nikon and Canon have enough gear to keep any serious wildlife and action shooter very happy.
The only thing I miss right now is the 400/4 PF I guess.

 

[opticoholic]

I agree there is capable gear available right now, and it makes sense to just quit speculating and wondering what (Nikon) will do. I can't speak for Canon; I've always been a Nikon guy. I stumbled upon this blog entry from Thom Hogan from 2 months ago. In it he says we are still more than 2 years away from the point where mirrorless overtakes DSLR's in the "CIPA" numbers. I've never had much interest in all that, but what it says to me is that I just need to go use my DSLR's. It's going to take a while for this transition to play out. I still think Nikon has all it can handle for the next year or more just following through on the Z lens road map and keeping that on schedule, and so far they seem to be doing ok on that. But the other reason I share that particular item is "the need for a statement of clarity" really does make sense. I wonder if those idiots in Japan even realize how uncertain Nikon customers are, for example how it is totally reasonable to doubt whether the D500 will ever be updated... I'm not too worried about it because I agree with Vespo: It's already a great camera and I'm not sure I'd buy the upgrade even if it does happen... I'm hoping I'll never buy another DSLR again, but we'll see.
Dave

 

[Vespobuteo]

Hogan's article is interesting. And the uncertainty is definitely an important factor in this transition. Probably as much for Nikon as the customers.

The D6 will at least live another 2-3 years from when it's released later this year. Nikon got to keep the pro/semipro shooters happy. 2 card slots, superior AF etc. and hopefully the D500 and D850 will stay as long as the D6 is around.

My guess is that the first pro mirrorless, with 2 card slots etc., from Nikon will be the D7/Z8 or whatever called, replacing the D6.

The trickle down of tech and to replace both the D500 and D850 with mirrorless versions will then take at least another year or even more.

So a mirrorless D500 in 3-4 years might be plausible perhaps?

The problem will be all the super-tele lenses...will pro:s think it's acceptable to use an adapter?
Having F and Z-mount versions of 600mm lenses etc. will be costly.

Maybe the DSLR:s will live for another decade in the pro segment.
Personally I wouldn't mind.

 

[Chosun Juan]

Hogan's article is interesting. And the uncertainty is definitely an important factor in this transition. Probably as much for Nikon as the customers.

The D6 will at least live another 2-3 years from when it's released later this year. Nikon got to keep the pro/semipro shooters happy. 2 card slots, superior AF etc. and hopefully the D500 and D850 will stay as long as the D6 is around.

My guess is that the first pro mirrorless, with 2 card slots etc., from Nikon will be the D7/Z8 or whatever called.

The trickle down of tech and to replace both the D500 and D850 with mirrorless versions will then take at least another year or even more.

So a mirrorless D500 in 3-4 years might be plausible perhaps?

I think that's a large part of it - Nikon themselves don't really know where they are going or how they are going to get there - transition wise and giving confidence to consumers choosing one range over another ..... let alone informing their loyal customers of any path forward. As you said before, they also have to fully amortize development and fixed costs over any ranges developed. In the absence of any official line, dark imaginings are apt to take hold. It seems that Canon doesn't really care and just continue to do what Canon does - plug every available market niche.

The D6 will have to be supported with service parts for 10 years (depending on the laws in your local jurisdiction). Anyone buying one (or its 1DXIII Canon competitor) will not give a second thought to the Mirrorless vs DSLR debate, and will just blissfully blaze away for half a dozen years or so (especially the Canon shooters hooked up with the new lightweight MkIII supertelephotos). Nikon shooters have got a bit more finger crossing to do lens wise ....

We can only hope that a Nikon D500S and Canon 7DIII follow hot on the heels of the FF flagships in much the same way that the D500 did the D5 and the 7DII did the 1DXII.

We've yet to see the R mount 70-200 f2.8 performance in the real world but it indeed looks like an innovative lightweight design taking full advantage of the mounts capabilities. The Nikon Z mount one on the other hand just seems to be an iteration of the F mount offering. This tells me Nikon is struggling resource wise.

We also know from the Canon CEO's call that the market will halve that there will have to be some rationalization in product lines and reduced development (probably mostly in the DSLR realms).

I am not confident that for example that there will ever be an update to the DSLR Nikon D850. That product line may permanently transition to the Z8 (same for the Canon 5DsR moving to Mirrorless R8).

In the face of this uncertainty great opportunity exists for some innovative Adapter-TC's cross-spanning brands. As the big two hunker down though, it will definitely be an illegitimate covert Third Party design.

As primarily bird photographers, the FF's need really long lenses - heavy and expensive. However with high resolution (60MP+) Mirrorless (Z8/R8) bodies (after the D6 /1DXIII? after the Olympics? or maybe before both! that would be interesting! :cat: ?? ) that changes and effectively you have DX reach incorporated.

Personally I'm a bit surprised that CaNikon didn't nail new levels of AF performance with their Mirrorless debuts - Sony seems to have a real march here. Based on this I wouldn't expect CaNikon to be challenging the AF crown even with the Z8/R8 - I think they will take many years to nut that out - relying on the 'Pro' DSLR's in the mean time. It will be interesting - that's for sure ..... :cat:




Chosun :gh: