Peregrine or Lanner Falcon from Eastern Cape, South Africa? (1 Viewer)

[Liebzi]

An 1cy falcon from Mataiele, Eastern Cape, South Africa the 30th of November 2022. I defaulted the falcon as a Lanner, but after getting home and realizing some ssp. calidius are making it that far south, I'm now doubting this falcon.

See this link for id tip: Juveniles: Peregrine Calidus vs Lanner Falcon – Raptor Identification – The complete raptors guide

The Mataiele falcon shows faint streaks on breast and weak contrast from breast streaks to throat which seems to fit calidius better. In flight photos are not great enough to tell bars on undertailcoverts and secondaries or not. But I feel the contrast between underwing coverts and flight feathers isn't the strongest, and the wing to be pointed with long p2, which underline my feeling of calidius. The bird seems to be very worn, maybe that could be an indicator on the far migration it has just been on?

How worn is the calidius when it reaches South Africa? Any photos out there?

Looking forward to hear what you think

best

Anton

 

[Butty]

Why 1st calendar year? It looks too worn/ratty for that.
Doesn't strike me as a peregrine. Underwing looks better for lanner.
(Note spelling - calidus.)

 

[Liebzi]

Sorry It should have been 2cy, since it looks like there is 2 gen flight feathers. Looks very worn though. Still streaks of breast and wings seems odd for a lanner.

 

[tconzemi]

Juvenile Lanner moulting to adult
Head pattern, tail barring, upper breast marks, small feet
In November a calidus would either be full juvenile or almost complete adult