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Corona virus threat to birding (2 Viewers)

The airline of course will give tickets to a later flight, but it is unlikely they will cancel the wedding. If gatherings such as weddings are still allowed. We will just visit the couple for a few days then. Original flight was to Zurich, then train to the area at the far end of Austria, Lake Constance.

This assumes that borders are reopened and flights reinstated which remains an open question and will do for a good amount of time yet I think.
 
This is just my opinion, your mileage may vary, but as a retired clinical microbiologist, this media fueled hysteria and panic is outrageously overblown. I know as much about this virus, down to the molecular level, as most physicians and more than about 99% of the general populations. We are having one of our worst Flu A/B outbreaks in a very long time but there is barely a peep about it in the media. You are MANY times more likely to contract an Influenza infection than one by the "humanity eradicating" Coronavirus. The death toll from the flu is in the THOUSANDS so far this season and <50 for the Coronavirus. Which do you think is the greater Public Health threat? I for one simply refuse to give into this hysteria. I am not going to change my daily routine one iota. Like anything else, our disingenuous media is going to milk this for all they can before they move on to the next "crisis"
 
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The airline of course will give tickets to a later flight, but it is unlikely they will cancel the wedding. If gatherings such as weddings are still allowed. We will just visit the couple for a few days then. Original flight was to Zurich, then train to the area at the far end of Austria, Lake Constance.

My son is getting married at the end of June and I am starting to worry it might not happen. For one thing, even if gatherings are still allowed in Britain at that time, there's no guarantee some key guests won't be sick or self-isolating, or in one case unable to travel from Canada.

I'm surprised things aren't worse here, given the lack of restrictions on borders, or on public gatherings relative to other countries. I was walking through Newcastle on Saturday night and the only people taking any sort of precautions were the local Chinese community, all of whom were wearing masks, including those serving in supermarket. Maybe a little quieter than usual, but still plenty crowds of people drinking, spitting on pavement and generally not practising any social distancing. I was persuaded by my partner to attend a classical concert where most of the audience looked to be over 65, and should maybe be starting to modify their behaviour - although to be fair, there was a lot less coughing going on than is usual at such events!
 
This is just my opinion, your mileage may vary, but as a retired clinical microbiologist, this media fueled hysteria and panic is outrageously overblown. I know as much about this virus, down to the molecular level, as most physicians and more than about 99% of the general populations. We are having one of our worst Flu A/B outbreaks in a very long time but there is barely a peep about it in the media. You are MANY times more likely to contract an Influenza infection than one by the "humanity eradicating" Coronavirus. The death toll from the flu is in the THOUSANDS so far this season and <50 for the Coronavirus. Which do you think is the greater Public Health threat? I for one simply refuse to give into this hysteria. I am not going to change my daily routine one iota. Like anything else, our disingenuous media is going to milk this for all they can before they move on to the next "crisis"

Have you seen any news from Italy, where the health system got overwhelmed to the point of people dying simply because of lack of ventilation machines? Have you seen the exponential curves of infection in almost any country, that so far have been turned around only where extreme measures were taken? The current death toll is irrelevant, if there is no realistic way of keeping it that low. You are literally considering this epidemic less relevant just because it came later.

I mean it's all your right to trust whatever you consider trustworthy and from your opinion. I would just like you to reconsider, because even if you think that this is not dangerous for you, what about the other people? We are not asking you to change your daily routine for your sake, but for the sake of the others. Could you possible consider doing that?
 
The 'normal' death rate in Italy is c1500/day. The highest down to Coronavirus has been 384 in a day. The risks in a certain demographic are obviously reasonably/very high.

I could understand a panic lockdown if, say 10 - 30% of the whole population were going to die. But they're not going to. A much more targetted and strenuous protection or shielding (lockdown) of the elderly in conjunction with sensible extra social care for the lonely/vulnerable would be better imo.


Another unintended consequence of this in the political arena is if Russia and China truly don't suffer economically as much.
 
The 'normal' death rate in Italy is c1500/day. The highest down to Coronavirus has been 384 in a day. The risks in a certain demographic are obviously reasonably/very high.

I could understand a panic lockdown if, say 10 - 30% of the whole population were going to die. But they're not going to. A much more targetted and strenuous protection or shielding (lockdown) of the elderly in conjunction with sensible extra social care for the lonely/vulnerable would be better imo.


Another unintended consequence of this in the political arena is if Russia and China truly don't suffer economically as much.

Why wouldn't they feel the same effects as everyone else and if they didn't, what would be the 'consequence'? Chinas economy has already been badly hit.
 
Why wouldn't they feel the same effects as everyone else and if they didn't, what would be the 'consequence'? Chinas economy has already been badly hit.

China is essentially out of it, after c2 months of (effective) lockdown.

The US and W Europe are less likely to have effective lockdown (we aren't in a police state, different mentality etc etc) than China. If this grumbles along for the next 4 - 8 months (one reasonable possibility) the economic initiative shifts. Any discord in W Europe plays into the hands of Russia anyway - with borders and nations closing down, what do you reckon the odds are that Russia will decide to downplay any aggressive tendencies it has in the Balkans/Ukraine?

Communist States tend to care less for their actual individuals?

This is just my musings, but hey.
 
The 'normal' death rate in Italy is c1500/day. The highest down to Coronavirus has been 384 in a day. The risks in a certain demographic are obviously reasonably/very high.

I could understand a panic lockdown if, say 10 - 30% of the whole population were going to die. But they're not going to. A much more targetted and strenuous protection or shielding (lockdown) of the elderly in conjunction with sensible extra social care for the lonely/vulnerable would be better imo.


Another unintended consequence of this in the political arena is if Russia and China truly don't suffer economically as much.

Because they acted. If you let it run lose, it can kill up to 10 percent infected (because the healthcare won't even make a dent in the death rate of people needing intensive care). Now there are varied estimates about how many people would get infected, but even if it were only 20%, that's 2% of the people dead, within a few months, which is 1 200 000 in Italy alone. Now the 1500/day doesn't seem that much ...

This is the terrible fallacy people keep repeating over and over and over and it's making me sick - comparing the actual numbers of victims that already ocured in absolute numbers. The numbers are that small because China took the most drastic measures ever taken in the modern history of humanity and because the epidemics is only just starting in the rest of the world. It's not less of a thread just because it didn't manage to kill enough people yet.
 
Because they acted. If you let it run lose, it can kill up to 10 percent infected (because the healthcare won't even make a dent in the death rate of people needing intensive care). Now there are varied estimates about how many people would get infected, but even if it were only 20%, that's 2% of the people dead, within a few months, which is 1 200 000 in Italy alone. Now the 1500/day doesn't seem that much ...

This is the terrible fallacy people keep repeating over and over and over and it's making me sick - comparing the actual numbers of victims that already ocured in absolute numbers. The numbers are that small because China took the most drastic measures ever taken in the modern history of humanity and because the epidemics is only just starting in the rest of the world. It's not less of a thread just because it didn't manage to kill enough people yet.

It's not straightforward, and please don't feel sick over it ...

In terms of strategy in protecting the elderly shutting everything down isn't necessarily the best thing. Eg shutting schools - grandparents are often the ones who then look after the grandchildren.

There are unknowns - vaccine production date a major one.

EDIT:


Locking down the elderly now may well prove more effective than trying to stop a virus which you can't stop anyway. Lockdown will have to continue on for a long time in either case - and further connotations down the line. The China model of lockdown may work in W Europe - but not convinced imo. It's easy to say things after the time, but international travel restrictions/automatic 7 day quarantine for ALL International travellers would have made sense from a month ago. No-one would have stood for it at the time though!
 
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I would just like you to reconsider, because even if you think that this is not dangerous for you, what about the other people? We are not asking you to change your daily routine for your sake, but for the sake of the others. Could you possible consider doing that?

Various ways of looking at, dealing with or totally ignoring this pandemic - on local social media this morning ; there was praise for two shoppers who came to the "rescue" of an elderly couple trying to purchase 12 units of long life milk despite huge signs saying "all items restricted to 4 per trolley / basket". So they bought 4 each so as to bypass the stores request and then gave them to the "at risk" aged pair. Is that assisting and encouraging the elders being selfish, or is it community spirit? I pass as I have empathy for both sides of the story.
 
Stuff Trump I say, top slime ball..............

'The Donald Trump administration offered "large sums of money" to get exclusive access to a coronavirus vaccine being developed by a German company, Die Welt reported Sunday. According to the article, Trump was trying to get the Tübingen-based CureVac company — which also has sites in Frankfurt and Boston — to move its research wing to the United States and develop the vaccine "for the U.S. only."

The full article....

https://www.politico.eu/article/ger...d-to-buy-firm-working-on-coronavirus-vaccine/

Have to wonder about this story, as I doubt Trump could know anything about vaccine candidates. Presumably he gave carte blanche to buy anything that seems promising, so some staffer went shopping, American style.
It does leave a foul taste though...
 
Have to wonder about this story, as I doubt Trump could know anything about vaccine candidates. Presumably he gave carte blanche to buy anything that seems promising, so some staffer went shopping, American style.
It does leave a foul taste though...

There are lots of specifics in there and a half hearted denial has come out of the US although you might expect such a story to get wider exposure?

Edit: This is how he knew.

https://www.curevac.com/news/cureva...smöglichkeiten-eines-coronavirus-impfstoffes#
 
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Extreme lockdown measures do seem a bit crazy imo. Too late, and how long will they have to go on for?

Unintended consequences - I wonder how the murder and suicide rates will change over the next few months (US and Europe).

Economic hardship, mental health etc - what's the balance?

A lot of smaller businesses are going to fail as a direct result of these lockdowns, not to mention large numbers of people losing their jobs. Sadly, it's inevitable that some of those affected will take their own lives.

On a more positive note, ISIS has issued a travel advisory warning its terrorists to avoid travelling to Europe during the outbreak. So that's something.
 
Economic hardship can be mitigated - well at least it could if there were enough will to do it. Don't underestimate how vast the wealth of the really rich is, but the problem is that those are mostly in power, even in relatively "socially minded" countries, so it can be hard to tap into that.

Let's say that everyone would have some income that would be basic, but universal. Suddenly, losing your job doesn't seem that dramatic, does it ...
 
Economic hardship can be mitigated - well at least it could if there were enough will to do it. Don't underestimate how vast the wealth of the really rich is, but the problem is that those are mostly in power, even in relatively "socially minded" countries, so it can be hard to tap into that.

Let's say that everyone would have some income that would be basic, but universal. Suddenly, losing your job doesn't seem that dramatic, does it ...

It's not a question of money. During the last foot-and-mouth disease outbreak in the UK, entire herds were destroyed to prevent spread. Even though the farmers were fully compensated in financial terms, and even though the animals in question would have been slaughtered for their meat at some point anyway, a number took their own lives in despair.

When somebody has worked their whole life to build up a business (or in some cases, family firms that have been operating for generations), the loss of that work can be overwhelming.

Same goes for people for whom their job is their life. It's way more than just money.
 
Jan is right. China had 4 new positive cases yesterday and that's because they have been in lockdown for nearly two months. You just need to look at the curves. The same applies to the first Italian clusters (much smaller of course because they are small towns) that went into lockdown on February 21st. They have had no new positives for a few days now. And that's because they were in lockdown. The one original cluster in the Veneto region did even better as they tested almost everyone, thus putting more people in isolation (the same thing was done in South Korea) and they have had far less cases and deaths.

The answer is lockdown. Even if it can't be forcibly enforced like in China, going out without a valid (buying food or medicines, assisting relatives in need) reason is a criminal offence in Italy, so it has been taken seriously and towns are empty. Also lots of celebrities recorded adverts that run continuously on TV, saying that people need to stay at home to avoid spreading contagion.

Social distancing will never work if it isn't enforced.
 
Communist States tend to care less for their actual individuals?

This is just my musings, but hey.

I don’t see how using language like ‘’ locking down the elderly now ‘’ as per your earlier post, reflects a greater level of care for individuals! This is not a policy coming out of a community successful in managing health public care but a community very conscious of actually NOT managing community health care! It’s an admission that historically underfunding health care over the past 10 years has resulted in the NHS/GP services being very ill equipped to deal with any like an outbreak of communicable disease at this level.

When you talk about ‘locking down the elderly’, I think of our over 70s age group in this country who have mostly worked their entire working lives, paying their taxes, paying their Nat Ins contributions to fund our NHS.

They deserve BETTER than to be TOLD to stay in their own homes for months on end as a means of effectively rationalising health care for those members of the population who are just as responsible for spreading infection. Care for our old people should be a PRIORITY including their emotional and mental well being.

It’s disgraceful that we are not prepared for a pandemic - we have known for years/decades the potential for global health crises.

There are more humane methods of infection control, than shutting up our elderly (already some of whom are very lonely and already isolated) and our immuno-compromised citizens, including widespread testing (to improve epidemiology) not just testing those critically ill. Testing all frontline health care workers. Setting up isolation ‘field’ hospitals, rapid manufacture of ventilators and personal protection equipment etc and carrying out social distancing in the wider community.

The decisions being made at the ministerial and international governmental level about the response to coronavirus is being largely driven by economic and national political self interest not compassion and love for vulnerable members of our communities and not it seems by the best advice from WHO..

I’m a realist and understand the necessary dynamics here but lets call a spade a spade.

Shutting people up in theirs homes and closing down businesses is not an effective response on its own and worse, increases anxieties, triggers panic buying, causes extreme economic hardship.

Re those that are comparing Covid-19 to Flu - Seasonal Flu epidemics are spread over a 5-6 months period so while straining health care, the infection curve is not as steep. in addition the incubation period (non symptomatic) for most Flu types are 2-3 days rather than the reported 5-14 for Covid-19 - making it harder to control infection outbreaks.

Btw All those ‘dismissing’ Covid-19 as not as bad as a seasonal Flu outbreak, are forgetting, certainly in the UK, elderly and vulnerable people annually get vaccinated- there is none for Covid. nor is there likely to be for 12-18mnths. As for fatality rates, there is NO known fatality rate for Covid-19 and wont be until the pandemic is over. There is only the CFR (fatality of known cases) and even that can be under or over estimated depending on the number of un-resolved cases.

Sorry about the long rant but you only have to see national borders shutting down, panic/greed buying in the shops, the denial of sections of society essential testing and demanding our old folk be shut up in their homes as an answer to this health care crisis, etc to be reminded how easily we can loose sight of socially acceptable mores.
 
Shutting people up in theirs homes and closing down businesses is not an effective response on its own and worse, increases anxieties, triggers panic buying, causes extreme economic hardship.

I am with you totally apart from this bit above. Lockdown works, as I have said above, and I have not seen panic buying except when the first cases exploded three weeks ago. Also people are reacting very well here, with impromptu Flash mobs and using social media, personally I haven't perceived anxiety but awareness of the need to stay put to avoid contagion.
 
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