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ABA Big Year 2016 (4 Viewers)
- Thread starter Mysticete
- Start date
Periwinkle
Tame Valley Birder
St Paul in Alaska seems good at the moment - https://lynnbarberblog.com/
dantheman
Bah humbug
Strong possibility the other two big year birders were part of that birder influx?
He had that back in early April. Yes, presumably targetting Buff-collared Nightjar etc. His two remaining warblers (Red-faced and Virginia's) shouldn't be a problem if he's in the vicinity, but he should keep an eye on twitching code 3's first of course
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dantheman
Bah humbug
Four more and up to 682 with Mexican Whip-poor-will (83.78% of the current ABA total)
http://ebird.org/ebird/top100?locInfo.regionCode=aba&yr=cur
http://ebird.org/ebird/top100?locInfo.regionCode=aba&yr=cur
Paul Chapman
Well-known member
Checklists here:-
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist?subID=S29894067
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist?subID=S29892910
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist?subID=S29892954
He needs the rarities!
All the best
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist?subID=S29894067
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist?subID=S29892910
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist?subID=S29892954
He needs the rarities!
All the best
Mysticete
Well-known member
I don't think John is on Saint Paul, but is still on the Attu trip? although perhaps that has just wrapped up and he has moved on. Would have thought some update would have been made from the other participants on what birds were seen however (The adak birds they grabbed were reported before they left)
White-winged Tern seems to be gone now...who knows about the Gray Heron. Arizona might be the best place right now for him to wrack up some species, although most of them are unlikely to be things John will miss. Looking at St Paul it's hard not to question Olaf's decision to concentrate on AK in the fall more than the spring.
White-winged Tern seems to be gone now...who knows about the Gray Heron. Arizona might be the best place right now for him to wrack up some species, although most of them are unlikely to be things John will miss. Looking at St Paul it's hard not to question Olaf's decision to concentrate on AK in the fall more than the spring.
"Looking at St Paul it's hard not to question Olaf's decision to concentrate on AK in the fall more than the spring."
Seems a little harsh, he has just had 7 ABA lifers in two days.
He has a strategy and for me should stick with it. He seems to be getting jumpy,which is understandable, but the indecision could backfire. But I also agree getting the mainland vagrants should be a current priority since he has arranged to go north later. If I recall correctly, he is waiting for his daughter to finish the school year before going with her. Other priorities will likely get in the way in his way in the end - we have all been there.
When I met John in Australia (nice guy) there is only one priority, he is driven to get the record. He tends to do more trips led by others and if he gets the strategy wrong he does another year (we can but dream).
Definitely 1 for Team Olaf due to doing it mostly himself
Seems a little harsh, he has just had 7 ABA lifers in two days.
He has a strategy and for me should stick with it. He seems to be getting jumpy,which is understandable, but the indecision could backfire. But I also agree getting the mainland vagrants should be a current priority since he has arranged to go north later. If I recall correctly, he is waiting for his daughter to finish the school year before going with her. Other priorities will likely get in the way in his way in the end - we have all been there.
When I met John in Australia (nice guy) there is only one priority, he is driven to get the record. He tends to do more trips led by others and if he gets the strategy wrong he does another year (we can but dream).
Definitely 1 for Team Olaf due to doing it mostly himself
Paul Chapman
Well-known member
Checklists:-
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist?subID=S29906092
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist?subID=S29907488
All the best
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist?subID=S29906092
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist?subID=S29907488
All the best
Mysticete
Well-known member
yay on the Starthroat. That seems to be the toughest of the "regular" AZ hummers to get.
I still need that and the Beryline for my own list
Yes it is obvious that John has more resources than Olaf (and effectively zero life commitments, which increasingly is putting me over to team Olaf if I had to root for someone). I still stand by my decision that minimizing Alaska in spring is a risky gambit; most of the lower 48 rarities are likely going to be birds that will stick around for awhile, and thus John will be able to acquire them when he returns from Alaska. Assuming Attu has been as productive as St. Paul, I am not sure Olaf will be able to recover all those birds in fall and later in spring. Olaf is leading in number but John has a higher Code 3+ count. Assuming John doesn't run into his own strategy problems, that may cause him to pull ahead come fall.
The sad thing is that, in any other year, Olaf's strategy would be sound and I wouldn't even think to question it. It's very unfortunate for Olaf that John didn't wait a year or that Olaf hadn't done this last year. Without any doubt, if Olaf was the only contender this year I would say he would be a shoe in for winning.
I still need that and the Beryline for my own list
Yes it is obvious that John has more resources than Olaf (and effectively zero life commitments, which increasingly is putting me over to team Olaf if I had to root for someone). I still stand by my decision that minimizing Alaska in spring is a risky gambit; most of the lower 48 rarities are likely going to be birds that will stick around for awhile, and thus John will be able to acquire them when he returns from Alaska. Assuming Attu has been as productive as St. Paul, I am not sure Olaf will be able to recover all those birds in fall and later in spring. Olaf is leading in number but John has a higher Code 3+ count. Assuming John doesn't run into his own strategy problems, that may cause him to pull ahead come fall.
The sad thing is that, in any other year, Olaf's strategy would be sound and I wouldn't even think to question it. It's very unfortunate for Olaf that John didn't wait a year or that Olaf hadn't done this last year. Without any doubt, if Olaf was the only contender this year I would say he would be a shoe in for winning.
Paul Chapman
Well-known member
Excellent news. Two species John had on Olaf. But it may be a big kick in the teeth when John's Attu results hit the website. We may find that out this weekend or on 1st January 2017. He has previously delayed news on how he is doing and may yet do so again.
http://www.thebirdingproject.com/birdlist/ - showing 607 as at 14th May and eBird showing 614 as at 16th May
http://www.birdingfordevils.com/p/th...es-so-far.html showing 642 as at 14th May
http://olafsbigyear.blogspot.co.uk/2...ging-bunt.html showing 678 as at 23rd May and eBird showing 684 as at 25th May
All the best
http://www.thebirdingproject.com/birdlist/ - showing 607 as at 14th May and eBird showing 614 as at 16th May
http://www.birdingfordevils.com/p/th...es-so-far.html showing 642 as at 14th May
http://olafsbigyear.blogspot.co.uk/2...ging-bunt.html showing 678 as at 23rd May and eBird showing 684 as at 25th May
All the best
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Mysticete
Well-known member
We'll know roughly in the next week or so; John can hold off on sharing news himself but he was on a bird tour; I know the tour leader and its fair to say there is no way in hell he is not going to post some sort of list of rarities when he returns to the land of the internets. Not to mention probably at least one person (if not almost everyone else) will post their results on ebird.
Almost all of John's birding in rarity hotspots in Alaska are going to be through birding tours; as long as you know the rough dates of when he is there you can get a rought estimate of what rare birds he likely saw. For instance the group he is part of reported Smew on Adak before they left for Attu.
Almost all of John's birding in rarity hotspots in Alaska are going to be through birding tours; as long as you know the rough dates of when he is there you can get a rought estimate of what rare birds he likely saw. For instance the group he is part of reported Smew on Adak before they left for Attu.
Mysticete
Well-known member
Is this the Alaskan pelagic that Olaf is doing?
http://zbirdtours.com/pelagic.htm
If so that alleviates one concern I have over John getting Mottled Petrel and Short-tailed Albatross. Hopefully, if Olaf is doing this he can get in some land birding on both ends of the trip in Adak as well.
Also this seems to leave the day the Attu tour come back? Is a Olaf vs John confrontation in the works? Is John also doing the pelagic? Both of them confined multiple days on the same ship could be uh...interesting.
http://zbirdtours.com/pelagic.htm
If so that alleviates one concern I have over John getting Mottled Petrel and Short-tailed Albatross. Hopefully, if Olaf is doing this he can get in some land birding on both ends of the trip in Adak as well.
Also this seems to leave the day the Attu tour come back? Is a Olaf vs John confrontation in the works? Is John also doing the pelagic? Both of them confined multiple days on the same ship could be uh...interesting.
Dortmundbirder
Well-known member
692 now Flammulated Owl last entry.
To the ABA experts did he manage to clean up AZ pretty well now?
If he has some luck in Alaska and manages not to fall of in the Code 3+ count too far. Maybe he can catch the rarities up in Fall.
Or do you have some of the rarities which area basically spring only?
Anyway I enjoyed his last blog entries much more than his entries before. He seems a little less stressed and grimly.
To the ABA experts did he manage to clean up AZ pretty well now?
If he has some luck in Alaska and manages not to fall of in the Code 3+ count too far. Maybe he can catch the rarities up in Fall.
Or do you have some of the rarities which area basically spring only?
Anyway I enjoyed his last blog entries much more than his entries before. He seems a little less stressed and grimly.
Paul Chapman
Well-known member
Checklists:-
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist?subID=S29929040
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist?subID=S29926140
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist?subID=S29924872
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist?subID=S29923202
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist?subID=S29922439
Of course, he should be the quickest to 700 in a year ever?
http://ebird.org/ebird/top100?locInfo.regionCode=aba&yr=cur
All the best
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist?subID=S29929040
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist?subID=S29926140
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist?subID=S29924872
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist?subID=S29923202
http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist?subID=S29922439
Of course, he should be the quickest to 700 in a year ever?
http://ebird.org/ebird/top100?locInfo.regionCode=aba&yr=cur
All the best
Farnboro John
Well-known member
Not quite sure where you were going with this? Hard to lose a one-horse race....
Also I'm a Brit and not an expert on American slang, but isn't it normally "shoo-in"?
ATB
John
temmie
Well-known member
Not quite sure where you were going with this? Hard to lose a one-horse race....
Also I'm a Brit and not an expert on American slang, but isn't it normally "shoo-in"?
ATB
John
I think he means that Olaf would get all the attention and honors as he would break the record anyway. But with all the competition, the record will be probably broken twice, or at least by two birders in one year. So half of the attention (worse: as second, you never have had the record, unless e.g. Olaf breaks it in October and John goes higher in December, in that case, both broke the record in the same year). (I hope you can follow the reasoning, I am a bit tired of the working week
)
Mysticete
Well-known member
Not quite sure where you were going with this? Hard to lose a one-horse race....
Also I'm a Brit and not an expert on American slang, but isn't it normally "shoo-in"?
ATB
John
Usually I compose these messages in like 30 seconds while waiting for a file or analysis to save or load on my other computer, so I don't frequently proof heavily (also my computer is slow and tends to lag behind my writing.
But yes...what I mean is that their are currently 2 serious contenders for the big year record, one of whom is leading Olaf in rarities but not numbers. So even if Olaf beats the old record he might be automatically reduced to number 2, depending on if John can keep his lead. Having the second highest ABA record for a single year is still an amazing achievement, but I have the feeling Olaf would rather be #1.
Olaf is well on track to beating the current record. It's the other guy he has to worry about.
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