Corona virus threat to birding (1 Viewer)

[Andy Adcock]

Yep, I've been onto that site already :t:

What I'm looking at is more the source data and up to date tracking of the case curves for each country all graphed on the one sheet - something like this: (scroll down)
https://www.thinkglobalhealth.org/article/tracking-coronavirus-countries-and-without-travel-bans

This way you can compare the shape of each countrie's curves relative to each other and compare management strategies.

Most of the shapes are the same - there are a few that have flattened out below the pack, and then there is the US who is on a trajectory to punch a hole vertically through the pack !

It is interesting that Russia has only 93 cases listed and no fatalities ....... :cat:




Chosun :gh:

Russia has placed what was 5 departments under one and all patients with pneumonia, are being sent to one of three hospitals, none are being tested. We have a close friend in of of these hospitals with pneumonia so we know first hand that he has not been tested.

 

[Andy Adcock]

After I wrote it, I thought "Andy deserves this with the way he's been dissing America." o

Tee hee.

Not America, Trump and his admin, most Americans are appalled by his behaviour, especially if that vaccine story turns out to be true but it's totally unreportd by the mainstream media here.

Most of the World just cannot understand how you voted this madman in to power, he is actually really quite thick (stupid).

 

[Chosun Juan]

Haven't seen any such, sorry. And, yes, guessed you were only including it as an example - I'm assuming it was just some poor 'science/education' anti-China sentiment US website blah.

However this is pretty relevant -

https://twitter.com/amdar1ing/status/1237880129575157760

I don't have the time to dissect, but I think a careful reading of the article would reveal some gems around the rules of imposing restrictions - it's probably a whole lot less cavalier and more restrained than people imagine.

Flattening the curve :cat: is important for not overwhelming the capacity of the health system and preserving the lives of the elderly and those with pre-existing conditions.

What happens if this virus mutates substantially and we are back to square one in 3 to 6 months ? for perhaps 6-12-18 months ? At what point does the capitalist model need to be substantially modified, and what sort of economic activity is then possible anyway (particularly travel/ tourism) if we are in lock down all over again. If I hear "new normal" once more my tellie may be in danger of foot in screen disease !





Chosun :gh:

 

[Andy Adcock]

I don't have the time to dissect, but I think a careful reading of the article would reveal some gems around the rules of imposing restrictions - it's probably a whole lot less cavalier and more restrained than people imagine.

Flattening the curve :cat: is important for not overwhelming the capacity of the health system and preserving the lives of the elderly and those with pre-existing conditions.

What happens if this virus mutates substantially and we are back to square one in 3 to 6 months ? for perhaps 6-12-18 months ? At what point does the capitalist model need to be substantially modified, and what sort of economic activity is then possible anyway (particularly travel/ tourism) if we are in lock down all over again. If I hear "new normal" once more my tellie may be in danger of foot in screen disease !

Chosun :gh:

Well in that case, if it's a choice of Worldwide recession and anarchy, I'm afraid you'd have to let it run it's course. For the sake of the vast majority, life would have to go on and if that means some people will die, that would have to be an acceptable price?

The World cannot remain in the state it currently is in terms of lockdowns and isolation for very long before we have some very, very serious effects, possibly irreversible, on a global scale.

 

[edenwatcher]

As someone who may currently be infected but without "classic" symptoms, and obviously not a priority for testing, it is easy to see why the UK stats look as they do...

Rob

 

[Jeff Hopkins]

Not America, Trump and his admin, most Americans are appalled by his behaviour, especially if that vaccine story turns out to be true but it's totally unreportd by the mainstream media here.

Most of the World just cannot understand how you voted this madman in to power, he is actually really quite thick (stupid).

I know. It just comes off that way sometimes. But trust me, anyone on this Forum will hate his guts, too.

And I'm pretty sure the vaccine story is true. It turns out that he met with the chairman of the German company at a conference a couple weeks ago. That's how he knew about their development process. Once at that point, it's his typical selfish behavior.

 

[Andy Adcock]

I know. It just comes off that way sometimes. But trust me, anyone on this Forum will hate his guts, too.

And I'm pretty sure the vaccine story is true. It turns out that he met with the chairman of the German company at a conference a couple weeks ago. That's how he knew about their development process. Once at that point, it's his typical selfish behavior.

1. I'm not sure, I've had anti Trump posts removed, presumably by American mods?

2. I posted that link in response to you asking how Trump would have known about the vaccine work.

 

[Andy Adcock]

I know. It just comes off that way sometimes. But trust me, anyone on this Forum will hate his guts, too.

And I'm pretty sure the vaccine story is true. It turns out that he met with the chairman of the German company at a conference a couple weeks ago. That's how he knew about their development process. Once at that point, it's his typical selfish behavior.

Currently being raised in our Parliament, live on tv, usual political, tip-toeing around it.

MP Emily Thornberry is really ripping in to Trump!

 

[etudiant]

... I'm pretty sure the vaccine story is true. It turns out that he met with the chairman of the German company at a conference a couple weeks ago. That's how he knew about their development process. Once at that point, it's his typical selfish behavior.

Interesting information and likely correct. The firm is CureVac and its then chairman, Daniel Menichella, who is American, did participate early this month in an industry discussion of possible drugs at a White House conference. Menichella was replaced after this story came up by the founder of the firm, Dietmar Hopp, who holds 80% of the shares.

 

[pppppvvvv]

Interesting information and likely correct. The firm is CureVac and its then chairman, Daniel Menichella, who is American, did participate early this month in an industry discussion of possible drugs at a White House conference. Menichella was replaced after this story came up by the founder of the firm, Dietmar Hopp, who holds 80% of the shares.

Dietmar Hopp, of Bayern Munich 6- 0 Hoffenheim fame?
People should maybe start being nice to him!

 

[Andy1979]

Garden list from today:

Jackdaw - 11
Carrion Crow - 4
Magpie - 3
Jay - 1
= Covids-19

 

[Andy Adcock]

UK citizens now advised against 'all but essential travel', globally, everyones travel insurance nullified in an instant.

The UK consulate in Lima, Peru is closed whilst 60 Brits need help to get home, great service you guys.....NOT.

 

[Xenospiza]

Dietmar Hopp, of Bayern Munich 6-0 Hoffenheim fame?
People should maybe start being nice to him!

That's the one. He's obviously craving the attention of the fans, haha!

 

[rosbifs]

UK citizens now advised against 'all but essential travel', globally, everyones travel insurance nullified in an instant.

The UK consulate in Lima, Peru is closed whilst 60 Brits need help to get home, great service you guys.....NOT.

So went to the French consulate in Lisbon. They said not our problem that all the flights were cancelled today and you’re on your own. They then locked the doors and left the crowd outside who have no idea how to get home.....

 

[temmie]

An interesting article from a statistician's point of view here.

Science, not fear.

he is saying that the reproduction rate eventually will go down.
He should have stressed this is only possible in two very different cases:
1. everyone that can get the virus, will get the virus. This is undesirable.
2. we stop it by quarantine or social distance. This is what happened in China. If Levitt would suggest that this scenario 2 would happen naturally, that is not the case.

So in anyway, I do fear that we are trying out scenario 2, but not in the best way, and we will be in this for much longer than China.

 

[Nutcracker]

Garden list from today:

Jackdaw - 11
Carrion Crow - 4
Magpie - 3
Jay - 1
= Covids-19

Sounds like you've got coronevirus :king:

 

[Andy Adcock]

he is saying that the reproduction rate eventually will go down.
He should have stressed this is only possible in two very different cases:
1. everyone that can get the virus, will get the virus. This is undesirable.
2. we stop it by quarantine or social distance. This is what happened in China. If Levitt would suggest that this scenario 2 would happen naturally, that is not the case.

So in anyway, I do fear that we are trying out scenario 2, but not in the best way, and we will be in this for much longer than China.

Many experts consider that it will just bounce back once the measures are relaxed.

The World cannot just stop indefinitely and some hard choices will have to be made.

 

[Andy Adcock]

So went to the French consulate in Lisbon. They said not our problem that all the flights were cancelled today and you’re on your own. They then locked the doors and left the crowd outside who have no idea how to get home.....

I guess driving back isn't an option, Spanish borders closed?

Do you mind if I ask when you left for this holiday and if it was in say the last 10 days, why did you risk it?

 

[Xenospiza]

So went to the French consulate in Lisbon. They said not our problem that all the flights were cancelled today and you’re on your own. They then locked the doors and left the crowd outside who have no idea how to get home.....

Ah, the French and their legendary willingness not to help out.

Do you mind if I ask when you left for this holiday and if it was in say the last 10 days, why did you risk it?

We easily forget how quickly things change at the moment... I was in four different countries in the last two weeks (two of them for work).

 

[opisska]

Meanwhile Polish government is organising collection flights for stranded Poles across the world. Kinda ironic when a "poorer" country provides a better service.