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H5N1 in UK (1 Viewer)

salar53 said:
Well, from a scary selfish point of view, what impact will this disease eventually have on people? Worldwide?

It will kill millions. That's inevitable in the long term. Thing is, the outbreak in the UK among birds is almost irrelevant - mutation into a human transferable form is thousands of times more likely in the far east. If the government seriously wants to prevent (or rather postpone) millions dying it should help asian nations control it - money spent here is largely a PR exercise. I'm sure the media 'science' correspondents know this - so why do they file scaremongering reports?
 
Hmm. It's possible that it could mutate to be a strain that can cause the disease in humans, but it could equally well not. Similarly, a lot of the predictions of how many will die are based on how many died from the 1918-19 epidemic, which might not be all that accurate now as people who were not resistant died and did not pass on those genes to their offspring (similar thing as to why AIDS never became the problem here it was thought it could be - many people here are naturally immune to bubonic plague due to their being descendants of plague survivors and it also confers immunity to AIDS).
From a very clinical (emotionally, not medically) view, even if it did wipe a third of us out, it'd do no end of good to the environment and wildlife. A lot less CO2 emissions, no need to keep encroaching into wildlife habitats, less intesive farming methods needed to feed the remaining people. And lets face it, it can't be worse than mass famines which could well happen if the population growth outstrips food production, which is fairly likely over the next couple of centuries.
And no, I'm volunteering to have bird flu first...
 
colonelboris said:
Hmm. It's possible that it could mutate to be a strain that can cause the disease in humans, but it could equally well not. Similarly, a lot of the predictions of how many will die are based on how many died from the 1918-19 epidemic, which might not be all that accurate now as people who were not resistant died and did not pass on those genes to their offspring (similar thing as to why AIDS never became the problem here it was thought it could be - many people here are naturally immune to bubonic plague due to their being descendants of plague survivors and it also confers immunity to AIDS).
From a very clinical (emotionally, not medically) view, even if it did wipe a third of us out, it'd do no end of good to the environment and wildlife. A lot less CO2 emissions, no need to keep encroaching into wildlife habitats, less intesive farming methods needed to feed the remaining people. And lets face it, it can't be worse than mass famines which could well happen if the population growth outstrips food production, which is fairly likely over the next couple of centuries.
And no, I'm volunteering to have bird flu first...

Fair enough - H5N1 may or may not mutate but sooner or later there will be a new strain of flu that will kill millions.

The pitfall for your clinical viewpoint is that the third of humanity that would be wiped out will be the third that are doing the least environmental damage. There will be a significant correlation between being affluent and planet-destroying and having access to effective immunisation and/or treatment. Perhaps a nuclear holocaust might give greater grounds for optimism!

I'm interested in your comment about AIDS being less of a problem in the north due to immunity. Have you any references for this? I assumed it was better education and treatment that accounted for the reduced infection rates and mortality.

Must point out that AIDS is hardly a good news story, though - 21.8 million dead and 30% prevalence in sub-Saharan Africa, which it seems is the natural peak infection rate for any epidemic.

Nice day today, though, wasn't it!

Graham
 
As we know the H5N1 avian flu can spread from bird to human but not from human to human - yet. The H5N1 flu could potentially mutate into a contagious human-killing form if it gets into those who already are suffering from 'ordinary' flu. If that is prevented - easy enough you'd think in the UK - then we should be ok. However, outside the UK in Asian countries where they live alongside their poultry and may pick up a flu infection that may not be so easy and then you could potentially have a situation where the new avian-human flu spreads easily causing a pandemic. And then we're in trouble.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/4947454.stm
 
Hi all,
I was ALREADY depressed today before reading this: between this, terrorism, the imminent collapse of the world's ecosystems and more mundane problems closer to home, I am on the brink of despair...anyone selling Prozac online...?
Harry
P.S. I'm not joking!
 
Also, this Stanford site reckons that 28% of all Americans were infected during the 1918-19 pandemic and the mortality rate of those infected was 2.5%. Going on today's US population, that's 1,750,000 deaths. However, advances in medicine mean that the number of deaths would be less. Even if that rate were not reduced, it's a bit over double the number of people who die in the US each year from heart disease. If you lived in Baghdad, it wouldn't be the most important worry on your mind...
 
colonelboris said:
From a very clinical (emotionally, not medically) view, even if it did wipe a third of us out, it'd do no end of good to the environment and wildlife. A lot less CO2 emissions, no need to keep encroaching into wildlife habitats, less intesive farming methods needed to feed the remaining people. And lets face it, it can't be worse than mass famines which could well happen if the population growth outstrips food production, which is fairly likely over the next couple of centuries.
And no, I'm volunteering to have bird flu first...


Know you're a scientist Tony, but a bit hard, isn't it? ;)
 
ghostrider said:
Why do people try and blame the wild birds all the time?
I heard one news report this morning saying they where surprised by the outbreak because it wasn't migration season!

My understanding is that migratory birds, especially wildfowl, are proven to be significant disease vectors, so this news report does have a sound basis.

Of course the media will now link the Pacific Diver to Bernard Matthews and in turn to Jamie Oliver, but that's the media for you.
 
bitterntwisted said:
Of course the media will now link the Pacific Diver to Bernard Matthews and in turn to Jamie Oliver, but that's the media for you.

If they put down Jamie Oliver, I think it's worth the life of one innocent pacific diver...
There's something slightly satisfying about the thought of Jamie Oliver's carcass being dragged in a plastic bag by a guy in a white suit and gas mask.
 
Does the way we farm birds have any influence on the way it spreads? Huge poultry farms with thousands of birds in very close quaters can't be good to stop it spreading. Having said that, it is easier to contain once an outbreak occurs.
How about organic and free range birds are these a greater or lesser risk?
 
ghostrider said:
Does the way we farm birds have any influence on the way it spreads? Huge poultry farms with thousands of birds in very close quaters can't be good to stop it spreading. Having said that, it is easier to contain once an outbreak occurs.
How about organic and free range birds are these a greater or lesser risk?
In i think it was Holland all poultry within a given area had to be kept inside and the buildings bird proofred against wild birds. I think the bigest danger is not the bug but knee jerk reactions from politicians driven by miedia speculation and sensationlisim.This has caused huge culls of wild birds else where in the world.all to no good purpose Lets hope its contained and delt with fast and eficently.I dont think we are all going to get the flu But i do think we are going to get a lot of two for one turkeys at the shops on monday
 
A bbc news 24 correspondant yesterday said its highly likely to have been sourced by a migratory bird, - my ass!
It angers me that we pay the wages of these tossers through our licence fees, to be fed scaremongering crap which the general public believes in.
The Bernard Mattews sealed unit in question is supposed to be bio secure. These journalists should be banging on their doors reporting on the facts, not taking the easy option of blameing the wild birds that cannot get in (or at least should'nt be able to).
 
According to the BBC news web page entitled "How did avian flu reach the UK?"

Migrating birds don't come to the UK for a month or two. So the priority for government scientists is to trace how the virus got here.


The most likely explanation is that it was from a wild bird arriving earlier than expected.


But other possible sources, such as farm supplies, have to be ruled out to ensure that the disease doesn't spread.


This theme continued in Radio 2's news this morning.

What migrating birds are they talking about? are they talking about warblers, swallows.... or the odd summer visiting duck? Or are they talkng about the thousands of ducks and geese that arrived at the beginning of this winter?
Do I sound confused? well yes I am! Or is the problem the "news" reporter's extensive knowledge of ornithological matters? |:S|
 
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crabplover said:
A bbc news 24 correspondant yesterday said its highly likely to have been sourced by a migratory bird, - my ass!

Agreed, it is incredibly frustrating that the same misinformation is being peddled again, as it was last time this subject was in the news headlines. We all heard the correspondents talking about wild bird origins day after day on the news - even for the Nigeria outbreak! When the dust settled and things were analysed more carefully it was realised that this was a misrepresentation of the true facts - see the excellent write up on the birdskorea website, from which I quote:

"NANCHANG, Nov. 2 (Xinhua) -- UN officials on Thursday said migratory birds do not play a major role in the transmission of the highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1.

They made the remarks at the first international Living Lakes Conference in this capital of east China's Jiangxi Province.

Dr. Vincent Martin, an official with the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (UNFAO), said the spread of bird flu is mainly the result of the world's fast and unregulated development of animal production to meet the increased demand for animal protein."

To be fair though, the current BBC reporting is regurgitating the following statement of Fred Landeg, Britain's Deputy Chief Veterinary Officer, who said an investigation was under way "but the most likely source of the outbreak was wild birds". I am baffled by this - does anyone know why this line is being pushed again, or is this all down to politics and lobbying? If we can clarify this then the wild birds need some lobbyists on their behalf, because there is very little money tied up in birds, unlike poultry farming!

Stephen
 
WelchS said:
To be fair though, the current BBC reporting is regurgitating the following statement of Fred Landeg, Britain's Deputy Chief Veterinary Officer, who said an investigation was under way "but the most likely source of the outbreak was wild birds". I am baffled by this - does anyone know why this line is being pushed again, or is this all down to politics and lobbying? If we can clarify this then the wild birds need some lobbyists on their behalf, because there is very little money tied up in birds, unlike poultry farming!

Stephen

Thanks for that, very useful. Perhaps you should contact the BBC to advise them also.
 
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