H5N1 in UK (1 Viewer)

[bitterntwisted]

I think more than 50% of those WHO HAVE BEEN INFECTED have unfortunately died. Let's hope that there is no pandemic. I'm sure we don't want to test the peak mortality ceiling rate.

Of course we don't want to test it, but it is important to understand what it might be before we are railroaded by political scaremongering. Yes, 60% of people who have contracted H5N1 directly from birds have died. This is not really a significant number when assessing the likely impact of any human-transmissible form of the virus that may result from mutation. And yet this figure is bandied to infer that some 30 million people in Britain will die. They won't. Here's part of the government's contingency plan. The very worst case scenario is 709,000 excess deaths, just over 1% of the population. http://www.sehd.scot.nhs.uk/pandemicflu/Documents/j6645e-06.htm

I'd still be interested to learn why diseases can only be so deadly and no more. Can a biologist help us out as to why? Is it that diseases with a higher mortality rate are less likely to result in pandemic because they kill too many of those infected?

Graham

 

[salar53]

I'd still be interested to learn why diseases can only be so deadly and no more. Graham

Well, ebola regularly kills between 50% and 100% of people infected.
My, isn't this avian flu making us gloomy? It might never happen!

 

[hollis_f]

I'd still be interested to learn why diseases can only be so deadly and no more. Can a biologist help us out as to why? Is it that diseases with a higher mortality rate are less likely to result in pandemic because they kill too many of those infected?

Yup, that's right in most cases. If you're a virus that kills your host very quickly then it's unlikely that you'll encounter too many other potential victims.

However, there are some viral infections that are 100% fatal. Take rabies for instance.

 

[colonelboris]

One reason that 60% of people who caught H5N1 died is that they were susceptible enough to catch the disease in its original form in the first place. Something in their genetic make-up means they have the receptors in their bodies for the virus to attack which the rest of us don't have, so even when/if it makes the jump to humans, it's very unlikely to have such a mortality rate. Also, how many people were exposed to the virus without contracting it in the same conditions as those that did? I think it could be quite a lot of people.
Another thing I'd read was that the reason flus like this have such a high mortality rate amoung 20-40 year olds (unlike other flus which cause most damage in the young and elderly) is that it causes a massive immune response, which further weakens the system. Young and old people don't have such well developed immune systems, so don't suffer as much from the effects as that. I wonder if a small dose of immunosuppressants would work to lower the response? Could save a lot of lives if it did work. A similar method was proposed for AIDS sufferers - kill the immune system off completely so the virus had nothing to work on, but keep the patient in a completely sterile area until the virus had died off, but it's just not very practical to do it. In the case of a human-strain H5N1, you would only need to lessen the immune response, not switch it off.

 

[sneil]

I do not know much on the subject so I am prepared to be criticized for the following comment.

It said on the news that this was one of the most hi tec and sterile factory farms in the country, so it was a big shock that the virus has appeared here. So if it was as good a set up as they say you would think there would be no contact whatsoever between the turkeys and any wild birds. Yet a wild bird carrying the virus has been mentioned many times as the most likely cause.

Has sabotage or deliberate planting of the virus been mentioned anywhere?
Apologies if this is a ridiculous suggestion, but I am curious.

Well, there are planning options being discussed locally (I live 6 miles from Holton), that suggest the site could 'accommodate' 3900 houses (yes! that's three thousand nine hundred.....akin to a rather large village/small town if we anticipate that, on average, one new home houses 2.5 people...follow the link.....http://www.waveney.gov.uk/NR/rdonly...E9/0/Site_Specific_Allocations_Halesworth.pdf.) No other comment on that from me....the option appraisal just happens to be a fact.
What is irksome (and it was repeated today on Radio 5's phone in) is the almost metronomic claim that the vector is/are 'wild birds'.....from 'eastern Europe'..well yes, it could be, but given local migrating habits, that's come and gone months ago. My concern is that, in attempting to discover cause, factor(s) that is/are not being considered apparently, by either design or accident, (as has been mentioned elsewhere in the thread), are the environmental conditions of holding the birds, the source of their foodstuff, bedding, etc. To not even acknowledge that they are, at most, possibilities of cause, does us all a disservice in the attempt to contain and minimise the spread and possible effects of the disease.

 

[MKinHK]

One of the key things to track is the discipline of the expert proclaiming wild birds as the vector. Usually its vets, government officials or microbiologists. The sum total of knowledge of bird migration required for any of these professions is, wait for it . . . ZERO

And once again in the BBC release we have experts guessing that its a wild bird that has caused the infection. has the bird in question been produced er ... no.

Which coincidentally is the total number of people worldwide who have contracted H5N1 from a wild bird!

The problem is that wild birds were blamed first and changing the collective minds of the press and bureaucrats is like changing direction in an oil tanker.

Not much talked about . . .
There seems to be a great unwillingness to study the role of the legal and illegal global poultry industry in taking the disease worldwide. It should be noted that chickenshit is routinely traded all over China as a fertilizer and there is evidence that this was the cause of the famous outbreak at Qinghai Lake in NW China.

It was also very interesting to note that Bernard Matthews did not say that nothing being brought into the site could have been the vector, only nothing going out.

It seems clear that HPAI is a man-made phenomenon. LPAI in wild birds goes bezerk when it finds its way into a factory farm where thousands of chickens or ducks are kept crammed together, stomping about in each others turd and merrily infecting and reinfecting each other under increasingly high levels of viral loading until the strain starts to mutate. Ta-daaa! chickens carrying massive viral loading of H5N1 are taken to market, sold, eaten and kill people.

The same happens with wild birds in markets - they're crammed into cages without proper care, and are subjected to the the same stress-fuelled infection-go-round as the factory farm poultry so LPAI becomes HPAI, leading to the ban on wild bird importation into Europe (which is definitely a good thing and I wish the HK Govt would do the same!).

Make your own HPAI viral cauldron:

Wild bird with LPAI + birds in highly crowded conditions + poor or no hygeine + massive stress = cross-infection = increased viral loadings = perfect conditions for multiple reinfection and mutation = HPAI in viral concentrations that will kill.

Understandably this is not a story Bernie and friends wants the public to understand . . . and so it very rarely gets reported, even when the FAO or someone similar says so.

According to Prof Malik Pereis, the guy who discovered SARS and a leader in H5N1 research, the reason wild birds present little danger to people is the much lower viral loading. Wild birds - even when cogregating in huge numbers are still in far less infectious situations that either poultry or cagebirds.

When they get it, they die rapidly and with massive mortaility rates, further suggesting a new disease they do not have the immune system to cope with. However, becuase they get sick and die rapidly wild birds are lousy vectors - or in English far too simple for a vet to understand "dead ducks don't fly".

and finally . . .

I wonder if any of the genius "experts" prattling on about spread of H5N1 by migrating birds can explain why the total number of live birds found with H5N1 at Mai Po - the biggest centre for migratory birds anywhere in South China (at the heart of the outbreak) is coincidentally, ZERO!

However, H5N1 has been found here in both poultry, in birds released deliberately by Buddhists to gain spiritual merit (nice one guys!) and in predators that prey on sick and weak birds.

Our "fill in the blanks" cockney rhyming survey asks:

What is another name for an expert in one discipline sounding off about something here knows chaff all about?:

a) merchant banker
b) oil tanker
c) blindside flanker
d) total . . . ?

Answers on a postcard.

There lots more to say, but that's enough for one rant!

 

[MKinHK]

I do not know much on the subject so I am prepared to be criticized for the following comment.

It said on the news that this was one of the most hi tec and sterile factory farms in the country, so it was a big shock that the virus has appeared here. So if it was as good a set up as they say you would think there would be no contact whatsoever between the turkeys and any wild birds. Yet a wild bird carrying the virus has been mentioned many times as the most likely cause.

Has sabotage or deliberate planting of the virus been mentioned anywhere?
Apologies if this is a ridiculous suggestion, but I am curious.

Stranger things have happened . . . never mind SMERSH, the US Government conducted research to establish whether they could use birds as vecotors to spread diseases particularly Japanese Encephalitis to enemy countries. The surveys, known as MAPS, suggested that it would not work.

However, if it had been an animal rights group they'd have publicized it to smithereens! Such groups generally work on the philisophy of "no publicity, no point"

 

[PaulS]

:clap:

One of the key things to track is the discipline of the expert proclaiming wild birds as the vector. Usually its vets, government officials or microbiologists. The sum total of knowledge of bird migration required for any of these professions is, wait for it . . . ZERO

And once again in the BBC release we have experts guessing that its a wild bird that has caused the infection. has the bird in question been produced er ... no.

Which coincidentally is the total number of people worldwide who have contracted H5N1 from a wild bird!

The problem is that wild birds were blamed first and changing the collective minds of the press and bureaucrats is like changing direction in an oil tanker.

Not much talked about . . .
There seems to be a great unwillingness to study the role of the legal and illegal global poultry industry in taking the disease worldwide. It should be noted that chickenshit is routinely traded all over China as a fertilizer and there is evidence that this was the cause of the famous outbreak at Qinghai Lake in NW China.

It was also very interesting to note that Bernard Matthews did not say that nothing being brought into the site could have been the vector, only nothing going out.

It seems clear that HPAI is a man-made phenomenon. LPAI in wild birds goes bezerk when it finds its way into a factory farm where thousands of chickens or ducks are kept crammed together, stomping about in each others turd and merrily infecting and reinfecting each other under increasingly high levels of viral loading until the strain starts to mutate. Ta-daaa! chickens carrying massive viral loading of H5N1 are taken to market, sold, eaten and kill people.

The same happens with wild birds in markets - they're crammed into cages without proper care, and are subjected to the the same stress-fuelled infection-go-round as the factory farm poultry so LPAI becomes HPAI, leading to the ban on wild bird importation into Europe (which is definitely a good thing and I wish the HK Govt would do the same!).

Make your own HPAI viral cauldron:

Wild bird with LPAI + birds in highly crowded conditions + poor or no hygeine + massive stress = cross-infection = increased viral loadings = perfect conditions for multiple reinfection and mutation = HPAI in viral concentrations that will kill.

Understandably this is not a story Bernie and friends wants the public to understand . . . and so it very rarely gets reported, even when the FAO or someone similar says so.

According to Prof Malik Pereis, the guy who discovered SARS and a leader in H5N1 research, the reason wild birds present little danger to people is the much lower viral loading. Wild birds - even when cogregating in huge numbers are still in far less infectious situations that either poultry or cagebirds.

When they get it, they die rapidly and with massive mortaility rates, further suggesting a new disease they do not have the immune system to cope with. However, becuase they get sick and die rapidly wild birds are lousy vectors - or in English far too simple for a vet to understand "dead ducks don't fly".

and finally . . .

I wonder if any of the genius "experts" prattling on about spread of H5N1 by migrating birds can explain why the total number of live birds found with H5N1 at Mai Po - the biggest centre for migratory birds anywhere in South China (at the heart of the outbreak) is coincidentally, ZERO!

However, H5N1 has been found here in both poultry, in birds released deliberately by Buddhists to gain spiritual merit (nice one guys!) and in predators that prey on sick and weak birds.

Our "fill in the blanks" cockney rhyming survey asks:

What is another name for an expert in one discipline sounding off about something here knows chaff all about?:

a) merchant banker
b) oil tanker
c) blindside flanker
d) total . . . ?

Answers on a postcard.

There lots more to say, but that's enough for one rant!

 

[Charlie M]

Oh come on people - surely even the most gullible amongst us has realised by now that H5N1 is a problem of the global poultry industry and not migratory birds: the virus was found in a supposedly bio-secure unit - and rather than think that lax bio-security is responsible we're supposed to believe an unknown small bird got infected from an unknown wild bird, somehow got into a secure unit through an air vent, infected a load of turkeys (that then died very quickly), and then the umknown small bird somehow got out again before dying in the shed and now it's out it hasn't infected any of the tens of thousands of wildfowl in East Anglia? And if the virus is so massively infectious how is it okay to transport over 100,000 decomposing corpses (leaking fluid, because that's what dead bodies do) in tarpaulin-closed trucks 200 miles? DEFRA says there's no risk to the public, because quite frankly there isn't. None at all.

Let's face it, poultry is moved around Europe and the world all the time, the FAO and the WHO both state that H5N1 is endemic in poultry in Asia, and despite screening programmes, observers on the ground, and serious pressure from the poultry industry to prove that wild birds are responsible - there's still no proof that they are (in November 2005 the WHO said, ""To date, extensive testing of clinically normal migratory birds in the infected countries has not produced any positive results for H5N1 so far" and I know a respected member of the team who worked on bird monitoring/testing in South Korea where several farms were infected - not a SINGLE wild bird was carrying the H5N1 virus. Outbreaks demonstrably follow roads and trade-routes, are almost entirely confined to poultry farms, or in the vicinity of poultry farms where the birds are allowed to mingle in water bodies used by wild birds. The outbreak in Nigeria last year? Proven to be caused by chickens smuggled in from infected sources in Asia by ex-pat Chinese celebrating Chinese New Year. I could go on...

Why all the effort to blame wild birds? The poultry industry is worth billions worldwide and employs tens of thousands of people - but they simply are not spending the money to ensure that traded poultry doesn't introduce avian flu viruses to clean flocks. It would cost them a vast amount of money to do so - the UK alone produces millions of chickens a year, and to either vaccinate or test each one would bring the industry to a halt. Conspiracy theory on my part: the last time that H5N1 was found in Europe countries all over the world refused to trade in poultry from infected countries (this despite endless re-assurances that the 'meat' is safe to eat). This is a problem that the poultry industry refuses to face up to - and it's wild birds that are facing culls...

Please let's not add to the hysteria ourselves - the birds need all the help they can get!

Charlie Moores
www.charliesbirdblog.com

 

[Yaffle]

I remain totally unconvinced that this outbreak was caused by wild birds. Some interesting facts:

The first EU outbreak of bird flu for 6 months was recently confirmed in Hungary.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/6310029.stm


Bernard Matthews runs one of the biggest poultry operations in Hungary.

http://www.bernardmatthews.com/CompanyHistory90.asp

I trust the investigation will be looking very closely at any movement of birds and feed from Hungary to the UK in recent weeks.

 

[sneil]

What is irksome (and it was repeated today on Radio 5's phone in) is the almost metronomic claim that the vector is/are 'wild birds'.....from 'eastern Europe'..well yes, it could be, but given local migrating habits, that's come and gone months ago. My concern is that, in attempting to discover cause, factor(s) that is/are not being considered apparently, by either design or accident, (as has been mentioned elsewhere in the thread), are the environmental conditions of holding the birds, the source of their foodstuff, bedding, etc. To not even acknowledge that they are, at most, possibilities of cause, does us all a disservice in the attempt to contain and minimise the spread and possible effects of the disease.

Lest there be any misunderstanding, re: 'the environmental conditions of holding the birds....etc', I did, of course, refer to Bernie's turkeys....for examining that angle does not seem to be a consideration at all by them wot is pontificating.....let us take, for example, today's headline in the East Anglian Daily Times..........'Migrating Bird to Blame?'....there you go, Bewick's swan guilty as charged, m'lud...the papers said so!
.....and, yes you're right MKinHK, the 'experts' on this morning's phone in included a turkey farmer from Norfolk !!!!!!!!

 

[Tyke]

"Oh come on people - surely even the most gullible amongst us has realised by now that H5N1 is a problem of the global poultry industry and not migratory birds..... "

Perhaps you could comment Charlie on the incidents of HPAI in wild birds listed here-particularly those in EU where the wild bird vector is seen by officials as being the probable means of transmission to EU. Do you believe that all the EU HPAI cases in wild birds listed were transmitted to them from local domestic birds?

http://www.birdlife.org/action/science/species/avian_flu/pdfs/wildbird_h5n1_cases.pdf

"and it's wild birds that are facing culls..."

Charlie-which authorities have called for wild bird culls?

Colin

 

[JDatchens]

The first EU outbreak of bird flu for 6 months was recently confirmed in Hungary.

Bernard Matthews runs one of the biggest poultry operations in Hungary.

I trust the investigation will be looking very closely at any movement of birds and feed from Hungary to the UK in recent weeks.

This connection was mentioned on TV (during a quite sensible discussion on the subject on "This Morning".) this morning. Seems the incidence of workers moving between Hungary and the UK is being looked at... it'd be ironic if Bernard Matthew's own staff introduced this to their Suffolk operations - and if this were to be proven, then the Government should NOT pay any compensation for the Turkeys culled as a result (currently being quoted as £3-£4 per bird.)!

Meanwhile, no doubt, the media will continue their panic-mongering... a TV news report last night just happened to mention in passing that the RSPB's Minsmere Reserve is not far away as the bird flies...

 

[Ausable Bird Observatory]

They've got form for this - remember the second outbreak of foot and mouth that never happened, yet filled the news slots while the government buried some bad news under the reports?

Was it coincidence that the government started buying railway sleepers (maybe used for the pires) in bulk six months before the outbreak.

And New Zealand were disinfecting passengers disembarking planes four months before the first outbreak? Isn't their largest (only?) industry sheep farming?

Call me a cynic...but....?

 

[hebog]

It's not a question of what started this outbrake BUT WHO?

 

[The Tom]

I remain totally unconvinced that this outbreak was caused by wild birds. Some interesting facts:

The first EU outbreak of bird flu for 6 months was recently confirmed in Hungary.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/6310029.stm


Bernard Matthews runs one of the biggest poultry operations in Hungary.

http://www.bernardmatthews.com/CompanyHistory90.asp

I trust the investigation will be looking very closely at any movement of birds and feed from Hungary to the UK in recent weeks.

I may be a little naive but there seems an obvious conection here I also would hope the investigation asks the questions below.
Have any birds been transfered from Hungary to the UK
Has any equipment been transfered
Where are the feed stuffs for each operation sorced
Do personel from Hungary also work in the UK
Is there any connection between the out break in Hungary and the Bernard Mathews operation ie was the out break close to his facility .

It cracks me up when "the most likely cause" is always trumpeted as wild birds when to my knowlege only one bird has ever been found to have died from the disease and that was in Scotland .
Avian Flu if it jumped the barrier into the human population would be a serious threat so lets get serious and DONT always point the finger at wild birds there is just no evidence . I believe that the government uses the wild bird transmission senario as a red herring to protect the poltry industry who need to get their own house in order

 

[Mike Feely]

I fear that even if the "Hungary Connection" is true, this government will bury it as deep as possible.

David Milliband (Environment Minister) said yesterday in Parliament that the facility in Hungary was not in any way connected to Bernard Matthews and unequivocally dismissed any connection to Hungary, whilst restating the line that the most likely method of transmission was via a wild bird.

Anyone see another Hutton Enquiry about to happen?

Mike

 

[Jos Stratford]

Fortunately, at least on global news, this story has yet to grab the big headlines ...it's old news, all the hype of last time came to nowt, as it will no doubt do this time. Long live stories of Americans covering up the bombing of British troops, of floods in far off spots of the world and the supposed global collapse about to happen due to global warming ...at least these keep Bird Flu in its place, a very minor, insignificant issue to human health.

 

[ghostrider]

How could a wild bird have come into contact with these birds? They are kept in total isolation in sheds containing thousands of birds that never see the light of day. Day and night is simulated by switching the light on and off. They enter the shed as 24 hour old chicks and are slaughtered at 20-21 weeks old. During this time they occupy a space a little larger than an A4 peice of paper!
I'm almost ashamed to be a human being. The thought of birds being kept in these conditions is horrifying. If this isn't the perfect breeding ground for any number of viruses and bacteria i don't know what is. Ok, it's well ventilated but doesn't that mean that any airborn bugs are vented into the open air? The most likely way of any disease being introduced to the "plant" has to be either through workers or the food they eat or the so called bedding,which is apparantley stored outside.

All the experts are talking about the bird flu mutating into the human form. Can it not also happen the other way round? A human carrying the flu virus passing it on to the birds and the virus mutates while it spreads from bird to bird? Just a thought.

One thing for sure this has highlighted the disgusting practice of factory farming and i for one will not eat anything that has come from one of these places.

 

[Colin]

I fear that even if the "Hungary Connection" is true, this government will bury it as deep as possible.

David Milliband (Environment Minister) said yesterday in Parliament that the facility in Hungary was not in any way connected to Bernard Matthews and unequivocally dismissed any connection to Hungary, whilst restating the line that the most likely method of transmission was via a wild bird.

Anyone see another Hutton Enquiry about to happen?

Mike

I am the worlds most cynical or at least my cynical meter is at 100 percent right now. When a politician goes out of their way to deny something and use words/phrases like 'catagorically deny' or in this case 'unequivocally dismiss' then I believe that they are covering something up. If they let the allegations or questions fizzle out or skirt around an answer, then there is probably no connection. However, that is only my opinion and I must use the word 'allegedly' in my post here!!